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Severe thunderstorms threaten the northern Plains & southeast US today!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Sun, 01 Aug 2010 00:06:21 +0000

A number of severe thunderstorm watches are in effect this afternoon, from Montana's border with Canada all the way to the South Carolina coastline! A large, broad trough situated west of the Rockies is ejecting energy eastward this afternoon, serving as the spark for severe storms over the highly unstable atmosphere of the northern Plains. The trough will continue to progress eastward, leading to an enhanced severe weather threat for the Dakotas and Minnesota again tomorrow. This is not dissimilar to the event that transpired last weekend, when a record-sized hailstone fell over Vivian, SD on July 23. Chad Cowan of ChaseTheStorms.com and best-selling author of The Stormchasers Jenna Blum were among the chasers in the area, and he was able to document the same storm later in its life cycle -- check out the ridiculous structure!!!

INTO THE STORM teaser video! Plus, more wild weather in the "Northland" today

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 02:04:24 +0000

A day after a devastating EF-3 tornado struck several communities in northeast Montana, parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin have been experiencing yet another round of rough weather. Damaging wing reports have been widespread this afternoon and evening for areas north of Minneapolis and in Wisconsin in the Michigan Upper Peninsula border region; this is perhaps a welcomed blessing on a day that looked to be ripe with tornadic potential earlier on. A number of Minnesota-based chasers have been streaming this live today, and will continue to do so as storms continue into the overnight.

Also, below is a new trailer for Reed's book, "INTO THE STORM." You can pre-order your copy now by clicking here.

STORM OF THE YEAR???

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 07:40:46 +0000

A long-track tornadic supercell moved across extreme northeast Montana yesterday evening, producing several tornadoes across this sparsely populated wheat country. Sadly, two fatalities were reported west of Reserve, MT in Sheridan County from one particularly large and violent tornado produced by this storm. Initially, two supercells developed around 23z in the vicinity of a triple point near the Saskatchewan Border, with the eastern storm becoming dominant later on as a dryline feature surged east along and south of an E-W oriented warm front. The first cell likely produced before being cut-off from the instability by the surging dryline and/or RFD from the intensifying eastern cell. This complex surface pattern can be seen in the two radar images below, showing both cells at 5:38 pm MDT, and the dominant eastern cell after the western one evaporated by 7:11 pm MDT.

A large, violent tornado touched down at around 6:15 pm MDT several miles west of Reserve, MT, and was reportedly on the ground for over a half hour, causing significant damage west of town. A damage survey is scheduled for data by Glasgow NWS, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have another EF4 on our hands this season. If I didn't have a dissertation to finish, I likely would have started this chase just north of the border in SK, so likely would have missed everything if the border crossing took too long. I would seriously give any of our best chases this season just to be on this supercell from yesterday. I'm obsessed with these subtle, late-season setups!!! Once I finally graduate tornadoes like these will never again go un-chased..

Localized tornado outbreak possible in southeast SD today!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 18:51:19 +0000

Intense thunderstorms capable of strong tornadoes appear likely this afternoon and evening across eastern South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. A mid-level shortwave trough is ejecting out of southern Montana right now; later this afternoon, a strong surface low is expected to develop over south-central South Dakota, bringing plenty of wind energy into northeast Nebraska and southern SD. Extreme instability is anticipated over this same area, and the latest RUC models suggest that storms should initiate by about 21z. This environment looks very favorable for tornadic activity, so residents should definitely be mindful of changing conditions. A number of our northern Plains live-streamers will be covering this event as well, so you can follow them on the Live page, as always! Strong storms are also possible over parts of the east coast, including the Delaware River areas in northeast PA east into the New York City vicinity -- lots of storms expected today across the US!

Also, yesterday was a pretty eventful severe weather day for the Great Lakes region. Storm chaser Andrew Pritchard caught the tornado below near Fort Atkinson, WI, one of several tornadoes this storm produced!

Tropical Storm Bonnie making landfall in South FL..Next stop New Orleans

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 18:44:47 +0000

Despite strong southeasterly upper-level wind shear, Bonnie still made landfall in South Florida as a weak tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. As seen in the IR image at left, most of the convection is north of the center of circulation, with only the most robust rain bands producing tropical storm-force winds. Given the 30-50 knots of 300-200 mb flow above Bonnie and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, there is very little convection to the southeast of the circulation, so conditions should improve rather quickly today over southeast FL...especially given the fairly quick forward speed of around 16 knots to the west-northwest. The RUC analysis at left shows the strongly southeasterly shear between a strong antcyclone over the eastern U.S. and slow-moving upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico that is currently ripping Bonnie apart, and will continue to do so when the center moves out over the Gulf. This shear will prevent Bonnie from strengthening despite the warm ocean waters, and may even cause a weakening below tropical storm strength prior to landfall in southeast Louisiana early Sunday morning as indicated by a majority of the models. Still though, the GFDL intensifies Bonnie to a moderate tropical storm strength after re-emergence over the Gulf of Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 45 knots at landfall, especially to the north and northeast of the center given the expected continuance of southeasterly shear. Therefore, the NHC has issued tropical storm warnings across southwest Florida for today, and from the extreme western Florida Panhandle through most of southeast Louisiana for Saturday night and early Sunday. TVN storm chasers will likely be streaming live video of Bonnie at landfall (assuming everyone isn't in SD chasing the anticipated tornado outbreak), so be sure to check out the Live page over the next few days!

New typhoon video from James Reynolds!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 00:40:06 +0000

With Typhoon Conson gathering strength over the South China Sea, extreme storm chaser James Reynolds made a last-minute decision to travel to Hainan Province, China, landing in the resort area of Sanya for what would have been a perfect intercept of the Category-1 equivalent storm. However, Conson did not totally cooperate, making landfall after dark and thus limiting James' ability to fully document the brunt of the storm (footage below!). Stay tuned for more from James in the coming months as he will be out documenting everything the Pacific and Indian seasons have to offer!

Minnesota braces for another round of extreme weather!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 23:57:04 +0000

One month after the historic June 17th tornado outbreak ravaged the state, forecast models show an impressive combination of wind shear and high instability coming together over central and southern Minnesota late tomorrow afternoon, meaning the area could again endure another round of what has been an extended period of tumultuous weather. A strong surface low is projected to develop over the west-central part of the state by mid-afternoon tomorrow, bringing south-southeasterly winds and moisture into central Minnesota by tomorrow evening. At the same time, a mid-level short-wave trough is expected to be entering the area, which, when combined with the high instability, will create a highly dynamic environment ripe for intense thunderstorm development. A few question marks remain with the forecast, one of those being how long storms will be able to remain discrete. Right now it would appear as though cells will fire over southwest Minnesota late tomorrow afternoon, then merge relatively quickly into a larger-scale complex. If this happens, the chances for tornadoes will diminish, but the threat for widespread extremely damaging winds will become a huge concern for areas of southern MN, including the Minneapolis metro area. However, if thunderstorms are able to remain discrete for any considerable amount of time, the threat for strong tornadoes will increase dramatically. Either way, residents should definitely remain alert to changing conditions tomorrow afternoon. The usual crew from Minnesota will be streaming live once again -- we're very fortunate to have such a dedicated group of chasers in the northern Plains this season! As with all of the live streamers, they play a critical role in helping the NWS and local media with the ground-truth they need to warn the public -- this in addition to allowing everyone else who can't chase see what's happening, of course!

Severe weather outbreak a certainty today over MN, IA, and WI!

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 14:54:00 +0000

A widespread severe weather outbreak is a near certainty this afternoon and evening over eastern MN into WI extending south into northern IA, as a strong trough strengthens even further to the northwest of the Great Lakes Region. A 40-50 knot low-level jet will pump 70s dewpoints northward and contribute to strong low-level shear to the east of a cold front currently surging into western MN, and deep layer shear will be more than sufficient for supercells. It looks like there will be a classic "bimodal" structure to the severe weather geography today, which means the strongest storms and highest chances for tornadoes typically reside in two areas - one to the north and one to the south. Indepedent of Lakes Superior and northern Lake Michigan being a huge obstacle, I would probably chose the northern mode over northern WI into the eastern MN arrowhead, where low-level shear will be maximized and storm motions will be more perpendicular to the cold front allowing them to move off the boundary and into the favorable environment. However, the heavily forested areas near the Great Lakes are very difficult chase terrains, so the southern mode over southeast MN into northeast IA might be the ideal target. While the environment looks very favorable for tornadoes in the southern mode, the only concern I would have if chasing the southern target up there (the dissertation is destroying my late season storm chasing) would be an unfavorable southwest-to-northeast boundary orientation given a near-parallel storm motion, which could cause any supercells that form to merge and quickly become an outflow dominant MCS. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how this severe weather event evolves, and to watch the live video from streamers in the field! I'm definitely not used to watching potential tornado outbreaks from my home computer...NOT EASY!

Huge severe weather days possible for northern Plains/MS Valley region!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 21:47:21 +0000

A tornado watch is currently in effect for eastern North Dakota, extreme northern South Dakota and extreme western Minnesota as a large, potent trough makes its way into the northern Plains this afternoon. Initial convective development has been in the form of discrete storms, with a dominant storm moving slowly east-northeast from near Jamestown generally toward Fargo. Later this evening the storms are expected to become more clustered, and eventually grow into a MCS which would likely impact western Minnesota into early tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, intense discrete or quasi-discrete storms are expected across southern MN, northeast IA and western Wisconsin; wind shear is expected to be very strong in a moderately unstable environment, especially over western Wisconsin, so strong tornadoes and very large hail are of particular concern tomorrow afternoon. The northern Plains chasers will likely be out in force later today and especially tomorrow, so be sure to follow their chase by accessing the Live page!

Tornado warnings in effect for eastern ND!

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 21:33:03 +0000

A very large tornado watch has been issued for all of eastern ND ahead of a cold front marching through the Northern Plains, with a tornado warning just issued at around 4 pm CDT for Barnes County, ND as a cluster of HP supercells has been gatherning strength. Conditions appear favorable for tornadoes, and especially large hail, for much of eastern ND this afternoon and evening as a 35-45 knot LLJ is punching north ahead of the advancing cold front co-located with extreme instability (3000-4000 J/kg CAPE). The SPC has outlined much of eastern ND into northwest MN with a 10% area for tornadoes, and a "30 hatch" area for large damaging hail given how the warm sector has recovered today from earlier convection. While the trend has been for clusters of HP storms, I wouldn't be surprised if this cluster went nuts as the afternoon progresses into evening, especially given the favorable environment feeding these supercells shown on the 21Z RUC analysis. As seen here, the latest RUC analysis is showing a nose of 4-5 0-3 km EHIs feeding into the Barnes Co area associated with the LLJ nose, and an outflow boundary/warm front that could locally enhance the low-level wind shear for these storms to work with. As this storm moves east, the RUC is showing the LLJ to strengthen toward 00z, and as we lose a little heating and the weak cells die out, I wouldn't be surprised if only a few dominant, tornado-producing, and relatively classic supercells remain. Bill Doms and Eric Whitehill are currently streaming live video of these tornado-warned supercells (click here), so be sure to check out how these cells are materializing in real-time!

Severe weather threat returns to the Plains!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 21:16:02 +0000

Thunderstorms capable of all modes of severe weather are possible over the next several days, from the Dakotas to the mid-Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains. Today the main threat appears to be supercells that may later congeal into an MCS over southern South Dakota into northeast Nebraska. There will also be a limited tornado threat as long as storms can remain discrete. The severe weather potential will shift south and east over the next two days before the atmosphere will re-charge over the northern Plains for what could be another outbreak (reminiscent of June 16-17?) over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley region mid-week. Forecast models are suggesting an environment supportive of intense thunderstorms will exist across southern MN into Wisconsin on Wednesday the 14th; storm chasers will be watching this system closely, as there is definitely a lot of wind energy and instability, so this could be another big severe weather day for these areas. There will likely be multiple chasers streaming live over the next several days, so as always, you're invited to follow along on the Live page to see what's happening across the Plains!!

Hurricane Alex: Video from South Padre Island!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 02:47:31 +0000

Hurricane Alex slammed the western Gulf Coast on June 30, officially making landfall as a category 2 storm along the central Tamaulipas, MX coastline. Areas to the north in extreme south Texas experienced hurricane winds and an impressive storm surge, captured in this incredible video by seasoned hurricane chasers Jeff Gammons and Jim Edds! Alex became the second most-powerful June hurricane on record -- perhaps a sign of things to come, as NOAA forecasters have predicted a highly-active hurricane season. Alex also caused major problems in eastern and central Mexico with it's inland progression, where several deaths were reported after an estimated 12-20" of rain fell.

Coming this Fall: INTO THE STORM

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 19:36:16 +0000

Pre-order your copy now!:

Severe weather season continues on the northern Plains!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 17:02:25 +0000

A fairly active severe weather pattern appears to be shaping up for the end of June and early July across the northern Plains of Montana, the Dakotas as well as across the Canadian border in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada. Supercells capable of tornadoes will be possible today (June 29) over extreme northern Montana into Alberta and Saskatchewan as a large trough digs into the northern Rockies, while a surface low is anticipated to take shape right on the MT/AB/SK border. Moderate to high instability should be able to build over this area tomorrow afternoon, with surface dewpoints possibly reaching into the mid to upper 60s well into northern SK by 00z tomorrow! Severe thunderstorms should be expected over an area from Great Falls, MT to Edmonton, AB to Saskatoon, SK, with the best tornado potential appearing right along the AB-SK border late tomorrow evening. On Wednesday the threat will shift east into the Dakotas and Manitoba. We're also keeping an eye on the tropics, as Alex makes its way toward the Texas Gulf Coast; a number of live streamers will be active, so be sure to follow them on the Live page!

Strong tornadoes possible today!

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Sat, 26 Jun 2010 18:53:44 +0000

A potent jet streak is currently passing over the Northern Plains, with a warm front extending from southeastern SD into southern MN, setting the stage for explosive supercell development over this area by peak heating. The latest RUC is showing 0-1 km EHIs of 7-8 along the warm front by 00z, which is likely a little over-estimated but still more than conducive for strong tornadoes. CAPE values of 5000+ over this area as very high dewpoints pool along the boundary will result in intense updrafts and massive hail in persistent supercells. All models are showing relatively early convective initiation by 20-21z, given the weak capping inversion, with elevated convection already marching through southeast SD toward the reservoir of strong instability. The HRRR is showing multiple supercells along the warm front in southern MN by 00z, gradually morphing into a derecho and surging southeastward toward the Great Lakes Region. The SPC has already issued a tornado watch from southeast SD into southern MN, with the discussion mentioning an elevated supercell currently just east of Huron, SD that is expected to become surface-based with a significant tornado threat developing as it tracks along the warm front into southern MN. The greatest tornado threat will be between 21 and 00z as the low-level jet increases, but before the storms merge into an MCS. I wouldn't be surprised there are over a dozen tornado reports this afternoon into evening... TVN already has several live streaming teams in the field, so be sure to check out the Live Video page throughout the day! http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

Moderate risk for MN, IA & WI!!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 20:35:51 +0000

Severe weather continues to plague parts of the northern U.S., as the latest in a string of moderate risk days has materialized for southern Minnesota, northern Iowa and western Wisconsin. Tornadoes will be a threat over these areas late this afternoon and into the early evening, or, as long as storms can remain discrete. Forecast models are yet again suggesting the development of a large MCS as storms are expected to merge into clusters and eventually solidify into a larger complex at some point later this evening, and at that time the main severe weather threat will shift from tornadoes to widespread damaging winds as the storms sweep across southwestern Minnesota and western Iowa. A number of chasers are currently positioned in southern MN within the moderate risk area, so be sure to follow their progress on the Live page as storms continue to initiate over western Minnesota!

Meet TVN at Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City - This Weekend!

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 17:13:44 +0000

This weekend the TVN team and SRV Dominator will be at the Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City! Come out to the ballpark and show your support of TVN (by wearing your TVN gear) and the PCL South (1st place) OKC Redhawks as they clash with their PCL North (1st place) rival Omaha Royals. Meet the TVN team, talk extreme weather, take photos, pick-up TVN merchandise, and enjoy America's favorite pastime baseball and FREE stuff.

Saturday (6/26) the TVN team and SRV Dominator will be located outside Bricktown Ballpark's main entrance at "Mickey Mantle Plaza" from 5 - 8pm.

Sunday (6/27) the TVN team and SRV Dominator will be located inside the ballpark in the centerfield pavilion.

Saturday / Sunday:

The 1st individual who comes to the TVN booth wearing TVN apparel will receive a pair of tickets for the game - FREE (Saturday Only).

The 1st individual who comes to the booth not wearing a TVN shirt and can answer the question "What is the theme song for Discovery Channels: Storm Chasers hit series?" will receive a TVN shirt - FREE.

See you at the ballpark! For the latest TVN apparel check out the TVN store at http://tornadostore.net!!

Severe weather threat continues over northern Plains and Great Lakes region!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 00:03:42 +0000

Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread over the northern half of the U.S. this afternoon into the evening, with all modes of severe weather possible. Extremely large hail and widespread damaging winds would appear to pose the greatest threat, but there is an increased threat for tornadoes in areas where low-level shear is maximized, and as long as any cells can remain relatively isolated. With that said, wind profiles for later this evening suggest that storms may organize into one or more Mesoscale Convective Systems, or, possibly even a derecho overnight, impacting an area from northern Iowa to lower Lake Michigan. The threat for extremely damaging winds will be greatest with any of these systems that are able to sustain themselves for any length of time, and will continue into tomorrow across lower Michigan and surrounding areas. (Of note, the 18z NAM shows what appears to be a derecho racing across Iowa later tonight and slamming into southern WI and Lake Michigan by early tomorrow morning...) Multiple rounds of severe weather will be possible for tomorrow over eastern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio as well as Michigan, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day-2 moderate risk for this region. After the possible derecho overnight, the area is expected to recover enough instability-wise for at least one more round of intense weather, again likely culminating with another strong MCS or derecho. Before that, though, the strong wind shear that will be in place over this area appears to be favorable for cells to remain discrete for at least a short time over lower Michigan tomorrow afternoon, and will pose a more significant threat for tornadoes. Tomorrow's weather set-up is of particular concern given the highly populated area which could be impacted. It's likely that at least several chasers will be streaming this event live both tonight and tomorrow, so as always be sure to check the Live page for a look at what's happening in real-time.

Photos from Friday's probe retrieval effort!

heidi@tornadovideos.net (Heidi Farrar) — Sun, 20 Jun 2010 22:22:07 +0000

Here are some photos from the probe retrieval detail, courtesy of Dennis Sherrod. Dennis, who is also a TVN Live streamer, was in Minnesota with a DOW crew during Thursday's outbreak, and met up with TVN near Parkers Prairie, MN on Friday to help with retrieving the probes that had been launched into the wedge south of Wadena, MN. (This tornado has been rated as EF-4 and was 1.3 miles wide!)

The crew located the land owner/farmer and received permission to enter the property, where it was determined that two of the probes were stuck in the tops of very tall trees, requiring extraordinary (and unorthodox) measures to get them down. In a few of the photos above, you'll notice Chris Chittick with a shotgun -- that's right, a shotgun -- as he tried to blast a tree branch holding one of the probes, the idea being that it would bend, break or otherwise move in a way as to allow the probe to fall to the ground. That didn't work. Eventually the land owner provided an old ladder, which Joel used to help him partially climb another tree, and, using a long stick, he was able to dislodge one of the probes. Finally, the farmer and a neighbor produced a chain saw and were able to cut a limb that was presumably holding the remaining probe, except only the parachute was recovered; the probe itself is still out there somewhere! Everyone helped clean up the mess left on the farmer's property and went their separate ways. You'll likely see how it all went down this fall on Discovery!

Also... severe thunderstorms have erupted again today, as another multi-day severe weather event is unfolding across the central and northern Plains. Tornado watches are currently in effect from southern Montana to northeast Colorado, and east across north-central Kansas. Check out the Live page to see what's happening on this Moderate Risk day!

Video of tornado in Northern Kansas from yesterday

reedtimmer@gmail.com (Reed Timmer) — Sun, 20 Jun 2010 10:04:12 +0000

Here is the video from just east of Randall, KS, shot by the steady-handed Chris Chittick