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Chase Details

June 23, 2007 (Manitoba wedge tornado)

Chase Type: Tornado

Chasers: Reed Timmer

Location: SE Saskatchewan/SW Manitoba, Canada

Distance: 3800 miles

Tornadoes: 3

Max Hail Size: Softball

Max Wind Speed: 120 mph

Summary

We left Norman at around 10:00 pm CDT Thursday, June 21, 2007, with the plan of driving to Hays, KS, spending the night, and leaving by late morning the following day for southeast Saskatchewan.

OBSERVATIONS / MODEL DATA:

ENVIRONMENT CANADA FORECASTS / PRODUCTS:

944
FOCN45 CWWG 231900
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT SATURDAY JUNE
23 2007.

WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR STATEMENTS... TORNADO WATCH OVER SERN SK. SVR
TSTM WATCH OVER EXTREME SRN MB. HUMIDEX ADVISORY XTRM SRN MB. THERE
IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS OVER SERN SK AND SRN MB
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION... TWO MAIN THREAT AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
FIRST OVER SERN SK, COLD FRONT N-S NEAR MOOSE JAW PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO AN AREA OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SBCAPES. TSTMS ALREADY DVLPG NORTH
OF REGINA, BUT THEY MAY NOT BE QUITE SFC BASED YET. UPPER LEVEL JET
PROVIDING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THIS AREA, THUS TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. CURRENT INDICATIONS
AREA THAT THESE SVR TSTMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
THE TRANS-CANADA THRU MB TONIGHT.

SECOND THREAT AREA OVER XTRM SRN MB WHERE T/TD CURRENTLY IN THE
28/24 RANGE. TOUGH TO SAY HOW DEEP THIS XTRM MOISTURE GOES, AND
WARMING ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO PUT A CAP ON ANYTHING SFC BASED.
NONETHELESS, ONGOING LEFTOVER NOCTURNALS WHICH ORIGINATED IN
SERN SK NOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN MB. IF THESE ELEVATED STORMS CAN
TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE 5000 J/KG CAPE IN PLACE, THEY MAY
QUICKLY INTENSIFY. SHEAR NOT NEARLY AS FAVOURABLE, BUT WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADOES IN THIS AREA EITHER.

ALSO A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL SK INTO WEST-CENTRAL MB
THIS AFTN WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD THRU THE AREA AND TAPPING
INTO 1500 J/KG CAPE ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. WILL ALSO
CONSIDER EXTENDING THE WATCH FARTHER NORTH INTO SOME OF THESE
REGIONS.

HUMIDEX ADVISORY ALSO IN PLACE OVER XTRM SRN MB TODAY AS VALUES OF
40+ STARTING TO DEVELOP.

OVER AB..RAIN AREA CONTINUES UNDER UPR TROF ACRS NRN AB WITH SCT
TSTMS TO N UP TO THE SWRN MACKENZIE AND ALG SRN EDGE OF CLD. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. IN
SRN AB AMS IS VERY UNSTBL WITH SBCAPES IN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE IF
DEWPOINTS STAY UP. THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH A NWLY DRYING FLO
ACRS CNTRL RGNS, A SFC RDG DVLPG ACRS CNTRL AB AND SBSNDC IN MID
LVLS. THE AREA TO WATCH IS ALG MSTR BNDRY ALG FTHLS THEN EWD SOUTH
OF CALGARY. KEY WILL BE DEWPOINTS AS PROGS ARE INDICATING LOTS OF
DRYING IN LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED.

END/MELSNESS/NISKA-ARO