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Damage photos from Tropical Cyclone Helen in Darwin, Australia

Thu, 10 Jan 2008 04:13:00 GMT

Here are some damage photos and radar image from Tropical Cyclone Helen, which made landfall just southwest of Darwin, Australia on January 4-5, 2008, courtesy of Mike O'Neill of StormScapesDarwin.com
Helen made landfall as a category 2 tropical cyclone near the town of Port Keats between 11:00 pm and 1:00 am, and caused minor structural damage and downed massive trees in Darwin. Thanks to Mike for sharing these with us...check out his website for a more detailed report about Tropical Cyclone Helen.

Tropical Cyclone Sidr currently making landfall in SW Bangladesh

Thu, 15 Nov 2007 15:52:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone Sidr has maintained its intensity over the last 24 hours, with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots as of 12z Thursday. The storm is expected to make landfall over the next few hours over Southwest Bangladesh, and the impacts will be catastrophic. A storm surge of 20+ feet can be expected just to the east of the center at landfall, especially along the numerous river mouths that feed into the Bay of Bengal, which will leave very few structures left standing anywhere in the vicinity of the coast. This is a very bad situation for Bangladesh, and will likely go down as one of the most devastating natural disasters in the country's history.

The updated forecast track map from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is shown below, which is a worst-case scenario for Bangladesh as most of the major river mouths will be located just to the east of the center at landfall. Thus, strong, persistent southerly flow will "pile-up" the water in these inlets, and the swampy low-lands will be covered in 20+ feet of water. Thankfully, evacuations have been underway in this region for the past 24-48 hours, with residents near the coast being moved well inland as quickly and efficiently as possible. Stay tuned for updates on this dangerous situation. Here are some links to news stories about Sidr:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/15/content_7083396.htm

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/cyclone-sidr-47111211

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/14/bangladesh.cyclone.ap/index.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12784349/

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Sidr heading for Calcutta, India and Bangladesh!

Wed, 14 Nov 2007 15:44:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone Sidr, with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots, is heading straight for the populated and storm surge-prone Southeast India/western Bangladesh Coast, including the city of Calcutta, India. The satellite image below from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows the textbook tropical cyclone in the center of the Bay of Bengal, where water temperatures are some of the warmest in the world!

Wave heights are estimated to be around 10 m (33 ft) in the vicinity of the eye, setting the stage for a potentially catastrophic storm surge at landfall in about 36 hours, especially immediately east of the eye. Compounding the severity of the situation, the mouths of the Ganges and Padma Rivers are located in this region, which will likely experience a 20 foot wall of water if located immediately east of the eye, as 100+ knot southerlies will "pile-up" the water within these inlets. Shown below is the official track map of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which shows the storm making landfall shortly before 00z on Nov 16. Stay tuned for updates on this dangerous situation.

Here is another higher-resolution satellite image that also shows the Himalayas to the north of Bangladesh!

Tropical Storm Noel pounding Haiti!

Mon, 29 Oct 2007 05:57:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Noel is likely producing catastrophic flooding over mountainous Hispaniola tonight, as explosive convection on the north side of the tropical cyclone continues to pound southern Haiti and Dominican Republic. While little strengthening has occurred over the last 24 hours, intense convection is ongoing on the north side of the circulation. The 11:00 pm EDT NHC advisory from Sunday night still indicated maximum sustained winds of 50 kts. An IR loop of Noel from over the last several hours is displayed below:

The mountains over southeastern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic are 8000+ feet in elevation, and are located very near to the coast. Thus, orographic enhancement of the already heavy tropical rainfall must be out of control...Meaning that catastrophic flash floods and mud slides will be inevitable. Here is a picture of the beautiful south-Haiti coastline, showing the proximity of the massive mountains to the sea:

Tropical Storm Noel is forecast to track slowly NNW as an upper-level anticyclone strengthens and drifts to the east. Westerly wind shear and the mountains terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba will likely keep Noel from strengthening much more, but minimal hurricane status is definitely attainable. Fortunately through, Noel will not impact the eastern U.S. Coast, except for slightly higher surf at the beaches. The 5-day track forecast from the 11:00 pm EDT NHC advisory is displayed below:

Typhoon Krosa video from Taiwan!

Sun, 07 Oct 2007 16:49:00 GMT

Here is video of Typhoon Krosa as it made landfall in northern Taiwan yesterday, from typhoon chaser James Reynolds. According to James, the eye actually made landfall twice as it made a cyclonic loop over the northern part of the island. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center had the intensity of Krosa at 115 knots as it made landfall!

Typhoon Krosa slamming northern Taiwan!

Sat, 06 Oct 2007 07:06:00 GMT

Typhoon Krosa is just now making landfall on the extreme northeast coast of Taiwan, packing winds of ~120 knots, with higher gusts. The earlier Joint Typhoon Warning Center outlook noted that Krosa was weakening, with an eroded northwest eyewall...However, it appears that this may have been associated with an eyewall replacement cycle, because the typhoon has strengthened rapidly the last few hours before landfall, with a well-defined central dense overcast and enclosed eye. Typhoon chaser James Reynolds is currently in Taiwan, but I have not heard from him since his departure from China a few days ago. Hopefully he is safe and will provide us with an update soon...the typhoon took a much further south track than was forecast by the JTWC, which means that the eyewall of this intense typhoon will persist over northern Taiwan (before the track had the eye barely missing the island to the north!)...bringing much more intense conditions to James' position. Shown below is the most recent track map from the JTWC:

Typhoon Wipha closing in on China -- James Reynolds planning intercept

Tue, 18 Sep 2007 03:42:00 GMT

Super-typhoon Wipha is closing in on northern Taiwan with maximum sustained winds of 135 knots gusting to 165 knots! Wipha has been tracking consistently to the WNW and passed just to the south of Ishigaki Jima, where sustained winds of 64 kts with gusts to 88 kts were reported. This storm is forecast to pass just to north of Taipei by 12z on Sept. 18 with 125 kt winds, and will make landfall in China south of Shanghai by 21z Sept. 19. James Reynolds is heading to the city of Wenzhou, China (population ~ 5 million) for intercept. Satellite imagery and the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center track map are displayed below. Stay tuned for updates from James!

Hurricane Humberto making landfall on the TX/LA Coast!

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 06:28:00 GMT

About an hour ago, a special advisory was issued by the NHC upgrading Humberto to a hurricane, based on reconnaissance aircraft data. A hurricane warning has also been issued for the northeast TX/southwest LA Coast, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 70 knots! The center of Humberto can be seen clearly on Houston, TX radar, which shows a fairly compact but intense storm. Shown above is a loop showing the landfall of Humberto. Shown below is the special advisory issued by the NHC:

WTNT44 KNHC 130534

TCDAT4
HURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007
115 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A
HURRICANE.  BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE
BEEN INCREASED...AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.  THE
UPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR. 

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...WHICH
WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0600 UTC. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0515Z 29.4N  94.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    55 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA

Here is a satellite image of Hurricane Humberto from peak intensity, at around 1:30 am CDT. The Weather Channel reported frequent lightning with the eyewall of Humberto! It is likely that if Humberto had more time over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters, it could have become a rather significant hurricane.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle closing in on NC Outer Banks!

Sun, 09 Sep 2007 06:14:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Gabrielle appears to have intensified slightly over the last several hours, as upper-level shear has lessened and the storm remains over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Maximum sustained winds are still estimated at 35 knots as of the 2:00 am EDT advisory, but Gabrielle will likely intensify before passing over the North Carolina Outer Banks early tomorrow afternoon. The current NHC forecast indicates 45 knot sustained winds with Gabrielle at the time of landfall. The IR loop as of 2:00 am EDT is displayed below:
The likely center of circulation and outer bands of Gabrielle are well-defined on Morehead City, NC radar, with occasional supercells developing within these bands and near the center. Heavy rain, isolated tornadoes, and gusty winds will be the main threat as the tropical storm comes ashore, with a 2-3 foot storm surge causing minor beach erosion.
As is normally the case with recurving tropical cyclones at this latitude, Gabrielle will make a quick transition to an extratropical cyclone as it merges with the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast along the Gulf Stream. This storm will likely become an intense mid-latitude cyclone over the North Atlantic, and could cause heavy rain and strong winds several days from now somewhere in the UK.

Video from a Hurricane Hunter mission into the eye of Hurricane Felix!

Fri, 07 Sep 2007 19:05:00 GMT

Click the link below for video of a Hurricane Hunter mission into the eye of Category 5 Hurricane Felix early in the morning of September 3. The best part of the video is during the last few minutes, when still photos of the eye from the aircraft are displayed. The eye was only 10 miles across at the time of this mission! More information on this flight is provided at HurricaneHunters.com.

http://www.airshowbuzz.com/videos/view.php?v=9f061057

Video showing the devastating impacts of Hurricane Katrina's cat 5 storm surge

Wed, 05 Sep 2007 06:32:00 GMT

This video was shot by a family in Chalmette, LA, showing how devastating a category 5 storm surge can be. The water rose from ground level to the roof in only 3 minutes! Sadly, everyone in this neighborhood lost their homes to the 20+ foot storm surge of Hurricane Katrina.

Similar, if not much worse conditions are likely being experienced in northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras after cat 5 Hurricane Felix made landfall last night. To make the situation worse, 20+ inches of rain fell over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras as Felix weakened over land on Monday, creating devastating mud slides and flash floods. Below is a link to an article with photos from ground zero:

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iIG4Rl9AaW-bYPhvI7U_3IcSTZKA

Hurricane Felix made landfall as a cat 5!

Tue, 04 Sep 2007 14:47:00 GMT

After completing an eyewall replacement cycle, Hurricane Felix strengthened rapidly to a category 5 storm just before landfall on the northeast Nicaragua Coast a few hours ago with sustained winds of 160 mph! The eye was very small in diameter, and the cloud tops were very cold in the CDO, both consistent with a category 5 hurricane. As of ~11:00 am EDT, Felix had weakened to category 3 status as it moved over land. Up to 20 inches of rain is possible over the higher terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras today, causing dangerous mudslides and flash floods. Thankfully though, Felix is a very small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds only extending ~45 miles from the center, so the impacts should not be as devastating as Hurricane Mitch a few years ago.

Hurricane Felix heading for Nicaragua/Honduras

Mon, 03 Sep 2007 23:16:00 GMT

Hurricane Felix has weakened slightly today, likely due to eyewall replacement cycles and the entrainment of relatively dry air. Still though, Felix remains a very dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 knots as it continues moving westward towards northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where hurricane warnings are in effect. As seen above, the cloud tops have cooled during recent frames of the IR loop, indicating that some strengthening is occurring. Given the optimum timing of the eyewall replacement cycle with the usual nocturnal intensification, I would not be surprised if Felix strengthens substantially overnight before making landfall tomorrow morning. Honduras and northern Nicaragua will likely see devastating impacts from this incredible hurricane, which attained category 5 status yesterday faster than any tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic! Stay tuned for further updates throughout the night.

Hurricane Felix now a CAT 5!

Mon, 03 Sep 2007 00:10:00 GMT

"THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT THE MISSION BECAUSE OF 
EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GRAUPEL!!"

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

Hurricane Felix exploding!

Sun, 02 Sep 2007 17:26:00 GMT

As of noon EDT, Hurricane Felix was exhibiting an incredible satellite presentation, with a well-defined eye and very cold cloud tops through the entire central dense overcast. The Curacao radar has been showing a very nice eye and eyewall, and has recently been showing a slight wobble to the north. Check out the radar loop below, beginning at 1500 UTC:

From the visible image below, the eye of Hurricane Felix appears almost entirely cloud-free, with a perfectly symmetric CDO and a nice outflow pattern developing. Felix is definitely intensifying rapidly, and is taking full advantage of the extremely warm SSTs and weak upper-level shear. The recent NHC update has maximum sustained winds of 100 mph with Felix, which is definitely underestimating its current intensity. Based on the satellite presentation, Felix is likely a strong cat 3-cat 4 storm. The forecast track is unchanged from last night, with a landfall predicted near northern Belize during the day on Wednesday. Thereafter, Felix will weaken substantially over the Yucatan, and could re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a threat to the Texas Coastline. Stay tuned for updates!

Hurricane Felix slowly intensifying - heading towards Belize!

Sun, 02 Sep 2007 06:56:00 GMT

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has indicated the minimum central pressure of Hurricane Felix has fallen slightly to 987 mb as of the 2:00 am advisory, with conservatively estimated surface winds of 80 mph and a 30 nm wide eye. Felix continues to look impressive on infra-red, with a faint eye appearing occasionally at the center of the most intense convection. Here is the satellite image as of 2:00 am EDT:
Felix is forecast to continue moving westward, passing just north of the islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao in the next 12-24 hours or so, where tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect. The GFDL model is predicting the furthest south track -- due west to the northern coast of Honduras by Tuesday, and dissipating over the mountains of Guatemala. Most of the model forecast tracks are clustered further north, with a projected landfall in northern Belize. These models show Felix weakening temporarily over the Yucatan, but re-emerging over the southwest Gulf of Mexico as a category 1 hurricane. The 11:00 pm NHC forecast follows the northern cluster, as shown below:

Given ocean temperatures of nearly 30C in the western Caribbean Sea, and very weak upper-level shear, Hurricane Felix is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before landfall late Wednesday in northern Belize or the southern Yucatan. While we are considering an intercept of this hurricane, it would have to be an insane storm for us to head down there...since I have my general exam in 2 weeks! But a last second trip can never be ruled out. By this time next year we're going to be chasing every single storm on the planet! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Stay tuned for frequent updates!

Finally...Video of Hurricane Dean from Jamaica!

Thu, 23 Aug 2007 16:13:00 GMT

Here is the highlight video from our Hurricane Dean experience in Runaway Bay, Jamaica. As mentioned, we should have been on the extreme southern peninsula of the island to receive the brunt of the hurricane...but we are still relatively new to chasing hurricanes! Definitely a learning experience every time. After landing in Montego Bay, it appeared that Dean was taking a more northerly track, and would move right across the center of the island -- giving the north shore the most intense conditions. However, the storm wobbled south less than 18 hours before landfall. In hindsight, we should have waited several more hours at the airport for a more certain forecast track.

Concurrently, typhoon chaser James Reynolds was documenting Typhoon Sepat in Taiwan. Check out his INCREDIBLE video of ~140 mph winds in the intense eye wall, as well as catastrophic flooding:

Category 5 Dean Last Night!! Now Cat 3 Inland

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 14:00:00 GMT

Here is a visible satellite of Cat 3 Dean moving over land:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last night:
Dean was officially upgraded to the first Category Five hurricane of the 2007 Hurricane Season

As of the 11pm update with the NHC, Dean has winds of 160 mph, with higher gusts. The winds could actually be higher. We will find out in a couple of hours with the next Hurricane Hunter flight.
This year the Hurricane Hunters have a new instrument called a Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, also known as SMURF. This allows an instantaneous measurement of surface wind speed by measuring sea foam! The radiometer is attached on the wing of the WC-130J's and also measures rainfall rates.
Unlike a dropsonde (the instrument that is manually dropped in the storm to get a vertical profile measurement of the atmosphere) the radiometer stays in place through the flight.

Reed will be back online tomorrow with more Dean updates, included footage from Jamaica!

Tropical Update/ OK flooding

Mon, 20 Aug 2007 04:23:00 GMT

Dean is growing after brushing the south side of Jamaica. The storm produced a wind gust in Kingston of 138 mph! Dean is headed toward a favorable environment for intensification! Hurricanes love the Northwest Caribbean!

Here is a wider view of the Atlantic/Caribbean that shows the location of Dean relative to the Yucatan. Also notice the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic.

Back in the U.S. there have been MAJOR flooding issues in Minnesota and in Oklahoma. Here is a loop from Saturday night's Erin remnants intensification:

Reed and Joel will be touring Jamaica tomorrow. Hopefully their internet will be up and running.

TORNADOVIDEOS.NET HEADING TO JAMAICA!!

Sat, 18 Aug 2007 06:23:00 GMT

Joel and I just booked a ticket to Jamaica, arriving at around noon tomorrow (Saturday), a little more than 24 hours before the projected landfall. Our plan is to find a safe, sturdy shelter on the south side of the island, capable of withstanding category 4+ winds. Overnight, Hurricane Dean has intensified into a dangerous category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph. Shown below is the IR image as of 1:30 am CDT: