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Tornado Threat for N. Alabama

Thu, 08 May 2008 16:36:00 GMT

Another day of active weather is ahead, this time for the Deep South. There has already been a tornado report with damage in Tupelo MS. More warnings and extended watches are likely for North Mississippi and North-Central Alabama. In fact, SPC issued a 10% hatched area for tornadoes:

I am not surprised by the forecast considering instability should increase before the main forcing moves into Alabama. A tornado watch is in effect through 2 pm today:

Biggest threat today will be supercells developing ahead of squall line. The environment is prime. Dewpoints in the mid 60s, temps rising into the 80s, 850 mb flow 50 kts, no CIN. Here is the RUC analysis from SPC of the curent 0-1 km storm relative helicity. This is the measure for the potential aid in updraft rotation:

Reed should have more updates later. I should be out chasing this event, but I am down in Mobile monitoring any severe potential for our inland counties.

-JY

Tornado Watch issued for N Texas/S Oklahoma

Wed, 07 May 2008 18:52:00 GMT

We're currently waiting here in Gainesville, TX, as a tornado watch was just issued for the area. Looking at the low-level jet (visually), it appears relatively backed in our location, with near due-southerly flow. This is very favorable for strong tornadoes if it remains until the storms arrive. At least two teams will be streaming live to the tracker!! According to the weather station, the dewpoint here is 67-68 - so clearly moisture will not be an issue. Stay tuned for updates..

Strong tornadoes likely today in NE Texas/SE Oklahoma

Wed, 07 May 2008 16:53:00 GMT

Given the insane wind shear profiles that are forecast to be in place east of a surging dryline this afternoon/evening, strong tornadoes will be likely with any discrete storms that form. The best location for strong tornadoes appears to be along and just south of a surface low progged to move eastward just south of the Red River. 50 knots at 850 mb and 700 mb with significant turning will yield extreme low-level shear values. This could be a very bad situation for the populated NE TX. We're currently heading east on Highway 82 toward the I-35 corridor, and expect initiation around 2 and 3. Stay tuned to the live streaming! Good luck to all who are chasing today...these are going to be some very fast movers!

Strong tornadoes possible today over the Southern TX Panhandle!

Tue, 06 May 2008 17:09:00 GMT

As a strong vort max rotates out from the Desert Southwest this afternoon, isolated supercells will develop along the dryline west and southwest of Lubbock, TX. If these cells can remain discrete into the late afternoon/evening, then tornadoes will be likely as the low-level jet intensifies from the south. We're currently targeting an area between Lubbock and Hobbs, NM where the wind shear profiles look most ideal. I paid my data card bill, so the tracker and streaming video will be in full-force!! Stay tuned for updates..

Remembering Greensburg, KS

Mon, 05 May 2008 20:13:00 GMT

As many of you know, yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of the tragic EF5 tornado that struck Greensburg, KS the night of May 4, 2007. Sadly, 13 people lost their lives from that storm, and a majority of the buildings in Greensburg were completely destroyed. Below is a 4-part video compiled in remembrance of that night by Dick McGowan and Darin Brunin of TornadoLive.com.

A week ago, we visited Greensburg for the first time since the tornado, and while the rebuilding process is moving forward rapidly, visual scars of the tornado are widespread. Nearly all the trees in the town are dead or severely injured, and bare foundations of previous buildings can be seen everywhere. Still though, a strong feeling of optimism and determination is apparent with the locals as the town continues to rebuild stronger and more eco-friendly than ever. Heading the rebuilding process is Greensburg GreenTown, a nonprofit organization established to provide the residents of Greensburg with the resources, information, and support to rebuild as a model green community. News and updates of the rebuilding process, as well as donation information can be found at the following website:

http://www.greensburggreentown.org/

Storm chasers not only played a significant role in the warning process during this tragic tornado event but providing ground truth to National Weather Service forecasters and Emergency Managers, but also have established a charity program called Project Greensburg, where profit from storm chaser highlight DVDs are being donated to the rebuilding process. Information on this program can be found at the URL below:

http://www.thestormsof2007.org/projectgreensburg.htm

Incredible tornado video from Cross Co, AR - from Don Guiliano of TVN Stream2

Sat, 03 May 2008 17:00:00 GMT

Here is the video of the strong, violent tornado in Northeast AR from Don G of TVN Stream 2. Note how low the wall cloud is! Sadly it appears that this tornado caused significant damage to at least a few structures, but I've been out of touch with the news since yesterday. I'll have images up of the low-contrast wedge near I-40 that we intercepted earlier in the day, as well as the tragic scene in Enterprise, MS. Thankfully though, no injuries were reported at this time in Enterprise due to the lengthy warning time - and the whole town went to a shelter. Stay tuned for updates.

Major Outbreak Across the South

Sat, 03 May 2008 02:28:00 GMT

A major tornado outbreak involving many southern states is occurring at this time. There are 51+ reports at this time... and expected to rise.

Reed has informed me that they have been in the town of Enterprise, MS, where a damaging F2+ tornado ripped through town. They were one of the first on the scene, and have been assisting in the rescue effort, thankfully reporting no injuries at this moment.

Stay tuned for updates as they come in.

INCREDIBLE tornado video from Pawnee/Osage Co, Oklahoma!

Fri, 02 May 2008 05:31:00 GMT

Here is the video of several tornadoes that touched down today in Pawnee/Osage County, OK, shot by the TVN stream #1 team of Matt Chatelain, Daniel Betten, Matt Van Every, and Curtis McDonald. We made it to the storm in time for the last tornado, which was completely illuminated by several power flashes in succession. However, we missed the first few high-contrast tornadoes that TVN stream 1 intercepted. AMAZING supercell! When we punched the core there was barely anything left of the hail shaft, but the tornado was still violent and a strong stovepipe. Now we're headed to Little Rock!

Moderate Risk issued in East Kansas!

Thu, 01 May 2008 13:47:00 GMT

A moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for eastern Kansas, mainly for the threat of very large hail. While the SPC mentions moisture will be a limiting factor for tornadoes today, we still think moisture will be sufficient for strong tornadoes near 00z when the upper-level support finally arrives. We're targeting South Kansas just south of the triple point! I'm not sure why comments were disabled in the last post!

Strong tornadoes possible in KS/OK tomorrow!

Thu, 01 May 2008 03:25:00 GMT

Strong tornadoes are likely with any supercells that develop tomorrow ahead of the cold front/dryline from eastern Kansas south into eastern Oklahoma. Late arrival of the upper forcing will prevent storms from initiating until late afternoon/evening, beginning first in Northeast KS along the cold front, and later on along the dryline into Northeast OK near sunset. All models are forecasting a narrow axis of strong instability immediately east of the dryline, with a 40+ knot 850 mb jet from Texas into the Northern Plains. This strong LLJ will result in immense low-level shear, creating an environment favorable for strong tornadoes. We'll definitely be chasing tomorrow, so stay tuned to the live tracker! Here are the 00z WRF forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 00z tomorrow:

Strong, damaging tornado reported in Southeast VA!

Mon, 28 Apr 2008 23:40:00 GMT

A strong, damaging tornado touched down at around 20z earlier this afternoon in the highly populated Southeast Virginia, causing severe damage to several homes at least one confirmed fatality at this time. The tornado was a large stovepipe/cone, and was on the ground for at least 20 minutes. Here is a link to an article about this potentially devastating event:

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/04/tornado-touches-down-suffolk-one-killed-injuries-reported

Links to pictures of the tornado:

http://wavy.lintvmix.com/photos-browse.php?what=categories&for=1459

http://www.wtkr.com/Global/story.asp?S=8239350

Stay tuned for continual updates as news becomes available.

Supercells possible in W Texas today - final Dawson Co, TX video

Sat, 26 Apr 2008 15:13:00 GMT

As a subtle shortwave trough rotates around the backside of the main vort max this afternoon, supercells will be possible over West Texas into the Hill Country. With limited moisture, the storms will initially be high-based and LP (low-precipitation) in nature, but will move southeastward into deeper moisture by evening. At this time, a low-level jet is forecast to intensify to 30+ knots south of a cold front surging southward across the High Plains. Deep layer shear will be more than adequate for rotating storms, and the low-level shear might get strong enough for tornadoes toward evening. Here is the final video of the Dawson Co, TX tornado from April 23, including the near lightning strike and gustnado.

Persistent tornadic supercell near Waco, TX

Sat, 26 Apr 2008 00:46:00 GMT

Persistent tornadic supercells have developed late this afternoon into the evening along a stalled cold front in central TX. Ambient environmental shear there does not look favorable for tornadoes, with no winds greater than 15 knots below 500 mb! However, the storms have been propagating southward resulting in fairly good storm-relative low-level shear (similar to what happened during the Elie, MB tornado last year but not nearly the magnitude). Three tornadoes have been reported in Bell Co, TX with the strongest supercell as of 8:00 pm CDT. Further north in the western Great Lakes, several tornadic supercells have produced hoses from eastern IA to southern WI. Damage has been reported with these tornadoes, but no pictures or video have yet surfaced. Tomorrow looks interesting...We'll definitely be chasing and will have the streaming video at full force!

Tornado-warned cell in NW KS!

Fri, 25 Apr 2008 01:34:00 GMT

A lone supercell has developed in Northwest Kansas in what appears to be less-than adequate shear and moisture, but a tornado warning was just issued by Goodland NWS. The couplet has not yet been very strong, but softball size hail has been reported in Decatur County. While a brief tornado is not out of the question with this storm, large damaging hail will be the main threat given that it appears to be slightly outflow dominant at low levels.

**The previous blog post containing the Dawson Co, TX video was deleted...I did not realize the adult language at the end of the video because it was edited without volume!! A new replacement video will be uploaded when we return to Norman late tonight**

Tornado pictures from Dawson Co, TX!

Thu, 24 Apr 2008 03:39:00 GMT

Here are pictures of the rather large tornado we intercepted in Dawson Co, TX from earlier today (Wednesday) that touched down shortly after 4:00 pm CDT. The storm was continually struggling to ride the outflow boundary from earlier convection, but became elevated and died shortly after the tornado.

Below is the radar image from the second storm we intercepted just west of the first. At the time of this image, the storm was really wrapping and nearly put down a large tornado. But once again, the storm became undercut by the boundary and slowly weakened. Just as we caught the storm to the west, and nearly were struck by several CGs! Several us were shocked by the nearby strike.

Tornadoes likely in Northwest Texas today! New live streaming system up and running!

Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:08:00 GMT

As an upper impulse ejects from the Southern Rockies late this afternoon, instability and wind shear profiles will become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells over the southern Texas Panhandle eastward into the Hill Country. The RUC is forecasting the dryline to reside just east of the NM border between 21 and 00z, with storms initiating around 3-5 pm CDT. Our target is near the Lubbock area, just south of the east-west boundary at the northern edge of the LLJ. We should have at least 3 live streams today, so check out the Live Tracker throughout the day!

Non-zero tornado threat, 100% chance of monster hail!

Mon, 21 Apr 2008 14:50:00 GMT

Today looks like a classic high-CAPE/low-shear event along the front from northern Missouri southwestward to Oklahoma, with the RUC forecasting CAPE as high as 5000 J/kg in central OK by 00z this evening! The only limiting factor for tornadoes will be the lack of low-level shear, with a 20-25 knot LLJ forecast to develop by 00z. Still though, with CAPE values this high, there will be substantial stretching of any vorticity that can be vertically tilted by the strong updrafts, and there is a possibility the LLJ could develop faster and stronger than forecast. The 12z RUC forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 00z this evening are shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this area, with a 5% tornado probability. While the tornado threat may be marginal today, I'd say the chances of losing another windshield are very high, since we'll likely be dealing with some monster hail with any supercells that form in this highly unstable environment! Our current target is from Enid east to I-35, although this could be adjusted north and east depending on how convective initiation and low-level shear profiles evolve. We also plan on testing a new streaming video setup today! Wednesday looks like the apocalypse in the TX Panhandle...stay tuned.

Damaging hail video from yesterday near Fort Worth!

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 10:38:00 GMT

Here is the video of another crazy hail storm from 2008. This one was with a supercell that tracked from through Mineral Well, Weatherford, and DFW, TX yesterday afternoon and evening. We were pummeled by horizontal tennis ball size hail for several minutes, cracking our wind shield completely and putting craters in the car.

A Non-zero chance for tornadoes today over S OK/N TX!

Thu, 17 Apr 2008 15:22:00 GMT

If the morning RUC verifies I'd say there is a good chance for tornadoes from Lawton, OK to Wichita Falls, TX eastward, especially if storms can remain discrete and move off the frontal boundary. The low-level wind shear is forecast to be extreme, with 850 mb winds of 40-50 knots east of the front across N Texas and S Oklahoma (see below - 12z RUC for 00z this evening). The RUC also is showing explosive convective initiation across Northwest TX into south-central OK between 4:00 and 7:00 pm CDT. We'll definitely be chasing this event, so check out the tracker for live streaming video!

The SPC issued a slight risk over this area and southward to near the Mexican Border, with a 5% area for tornadoes over a majority of the risk area. This is a very conditional setup, but the potential exists for tornadoes if low-level moisture continues to increase slightly through advection an downward mixing, and if the surging cold front does not undercut the storms. If the RUC verifies, it appears that the front will surge rapidly over the High Plains, but with limited eastward advance. This solution would favor discrete supercells moving off the boundary. The WRF shows a much more progressive cold front, surging eastward to Eastern OK by evening. If this model verifies, we'll likely be dealing with a squall line.

Incredible lightning video!

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 19:04:00 GMT

Check out this video of a near-miss lightning strike in Norman, OK from last summer, courtesy of Curtis McDonald, Matt Chat, Daniel Betten, and Matt Van Every. The main lightning channel and associated streamers can clearly be seen at the end of the video. Early next week looks like the apocalypse.