TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: December 30, 2007 @ 3:31 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A fast-moving Nor'easter is strengthening rapidly over the Southeast U.S. and is barreling towards New England where heavy snow and strong winds will develop later tonight and continue through Monday night.  The heaviest snow will fall across Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Coastal Maine between Midnight tonight and noon on Monday, with 6-12 inches of snow likely across this region.  The water vapor loop below shows the strengthening system as of Sunday evening over the Southeast U.S.


The WRF and GFS are forecasting the surface low to deepen to around 990 mb by 18z Monday, with up to 1.5 inches water equivalent falling across extreme Northeast MA, Southeast NH, and Southwest ME by Tuesday (most will fall before Monday afternoon).  Both model forecast panels below are from the WRF:

Consequently, winter storm warnings have been issued for central NY northeastward across eastern New England, with snow advisories to the west and north across the rest of New England.  Several tornado warnings have been issued for rotating thunderstorms in the warm sector across southern Georgia, where temperatures have risen into the 70s with dewpoints in the 60s, and a low-level jet has developed to the south and east of the 850 mb low.  Weak, brief tornadoes are possible with these storms through the evening.  Stay tuned for updates as this winter storm unfolds...If anyone has any pictures or video we could post on the blog please email them to reed@tornadovideos.net!

Posted At: December 29, 2007 @ 11:17 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out The Weather Channel's images of the year blog post at the link below, produced by veteran TWC meteorologist Stu Ostro.  Featured are several amazing pictures, radar and satellite loops, and videos from some very interesting and unique weather events from 2007, including the record-breaking lake effect snow of early in the year, a synopsis of the severe weather season, and also images from the cat 5 hurricanes in the Caribbean.  TornadoVideos.net's Manitoba tornado footage from June 23, 2007 was also used.   Enjoy!

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_14434.html

Posted At: December 28, 2007 @ 9:56 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Above is video from the tail-end of today's snow storm in Grand Rapids, MI.  We only received about 4-6 inches of snow, but the snowfall rates were intense at times (~2 inches/hour).  Unfortunately, I missed the beginning of the storm because the front axle of my truck snapped 3 hours north of here!  Thankfully it happened in a parking lot and not on the highway!  It looks like we may be in for an extended quiet, but extremely cold period for much of the U.S. beginning early next week. 

Posted At: December 28, 2007 @ 1:26 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Another strong storm system has ejected into the Central Plains and will likely produce severe weather along the Central Gulf Coast, and blizzard like conditions with a synoptic scale Lake Effect snow event in Michigan.
I (JY) will talk about the south side of the midlatitude cyclone, and Reed will have another update later today with the north side, as well as updates with any big developments.

The SPC included most of Alabama, and South Mississippi under slight risk for severe weather Friday:
Forecast CAPE is relatively low with about 1000 j/kg near the immediate coast, but, the 850 mb winds are very impressive with possibly 50 Kts well inland!


The current dewpoint in Mobile is 49, thanks to a disturbance that moved through yesterday. But you cannot underestimate the quickness of the moisture rebound thanks to the Gulf waters (~70 offshore).
Here is a look at the surface features: Note the heavy snow symbol near Grand Rapids by Friday night.

The front stalls along the Coast during the weekend which is great news for the drought plagued southeast states! Another chance for thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday and into Sunday, then a big cool down after the first of the year. Check out the longwave trough along the East Coast!

Reed will have more updates through the day, with cool loops! He will also be documented the snow side Friday night in Grand Rapids. I will be in Mobile watching the development. One thing about severe weather along the Coast is if we get a good southerly flow with thunderstorms moving in from the Gulf waters, spin ups, like the Pensacola tornado in October can happen insanely fast. It's very tricky!

Posted At: December 27, 2007 @ 10:08 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Yet another winter storm will track from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes Region through Saturday morning, with heavy snow falling across northern Oklahoma and much of Kansas today (Thursday) and tonight; northern Missouri/eastern Iowa tonight and early Friday, and northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan by late Friday into early Saturday.  Winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued for these areas:


The low pressure center responsible for this winter weather will not be particularly strong, so wind should not be a major problem with this storm as it was last week.   Still though, heavy snow will fall due to warm advection ahead of the system, the deformation zone to the northwest of the surface low track, and vorticity advection as the upper-level wave progresses.  3-6 inches of snow will be common from the Southern Plains into Iowa, and 6-12 inches of snow could fall across the Great Lakes Region as the surface low slows down and strengthens slightly.  Once again, I'll be based out of Grand Rapids, MI to document this storm, and will move if necessary to find the heaviest snow.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: December 26, 2007 @ 12:51 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Please post your comments about "Tornado Hunters", a documentary featuring the Outlaw Chasers, which was shown last night on Court TV (soon to be TruTV).  I thought the show was very entertaining with some great close-up footage, and definitely shed a positive light on storm chasers as a whole.  It was interesting to see the Mulvane, KS (June 12, 2004) and Throckmorton, TX (April 7, 2002) tornadoes from different angles. 

Posted At: December 25, 2007 @ 12:09 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Posted At: December 24, 2007 @ 2:41 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is video from the peak of the lake effect blizzard in Grand Rapids, MI from last night between 5:00 pm and 10:00 pm EST, as 40-50 mph wind gusts and 2 inch per hour snowfall rates created near whiteout conditions and very treacherous roads.  This lake effect event was a classic southwesterly flow event for Southwest Lower Michigan, and Grand Rapids is usually the hot spot for snow accumulations from these events.  Shown below is a radar loop from the morning of Dec 23 through late evening:

Posted At: December 23, 2007 @ 11:00 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As a rapidly strengthening cyclone becomes vertically-stacked over eastern Lake Superior, the coldest air of the season will sweep across the relatively warm Great Lakes, resulting in the development of intense lake effect snow squalls by mid-afternoon across western Lower Michigan.  NWS Grand Rapids has issued a winter storm warning for most of this area, but left Kent County (county including Grand Rapids) out of the warning!  I'm guessing they probably did this because they thought the winds would be too southerly for the band to set up this far south and east.  I thought Kent County would be "ground zero" since cold southwesterly flow almost always results in the highest accumulations being here since the fetch over the lake is maximized.  In addition, the models veer the winds to a more westerly direction tonight, which at the very least would then bring the band into Grand Rapids if it wasn't already there.  Also, with the very strong boundary layer winds, the highest snow accumulations should be 10-30 miles away from the lake shore.  Even if we do see 6 inches rather than 8, the difference would be negligible with a 50 mph wind anyway.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out, but I bet Kent County will be added to the warning this evening!  We've already had light snow showers this morning immediately following the intense cold frontal passage, and my sister lost power with the thunderstorms along the front (which has since been restored).  Stay tuned for pictures and video from this classic LE event!

Posted At: December 22, 2007 @ 11:03 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Blizzard conditions have been pummeling parts of southern Kansas overnight and this morning, as 40+ mph wind gusts and heavy snow have created whiteout conditions across the region.  4-8 inches of snow will be common across southern Kansas as the deformation zone pivots through this afternoon, with higher amounts across northeast KS into eastern IA through tonight.  Shown below is a regional radar image of the intense snowfall from Saturday morning, followed by a surface map from around 11:15 am CST:

Posted At: December 21, 2007 @ 12:54 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A classic "Colorado Low" will gain strength over the Central Plains on Saturday, and will move rapidly northeastward to the northern Great Lakes region by Sunday night.  Heavy synoptic-scale snow will occur with the deformation zone to the immediate west of the surface low track from Kansas to eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and the Minnesota Arrowhead.  The system will then slow down and become more vertically stacked over the northern Great Lakes, and a strong cold front will sweep across Lower Michigan and into the Northeast.  As cold Arctic air crosses the relatively warm lake waters, INTENSE lake effect will develop by Sunday morning in the snow belts of Michigan, and downwind of Lakes Huron, Erie, and Ontario by Monday.  Shown below is the loop of WRF forecast MSLP for this weekend:
Shown below is the snowfall forecast for the lake effect event beginning on Sunday for this classic WSW-flow event.  Notice that the greatest accumulations are downwind of the longest portions of the lake relative to the wind direction.  The distance the cold air must travel over the lakes is called fetch, and is longest over southern Lake Michigan, Lake Huron, and Lakes Ontario and Erie for west-southwesterly flow.  Since the vertically-stacked low pressure system will be very near Lake Superior at the peak of the event, the wind direction will be more variable there, so the bands will not remain over a single location for any significant period of time.  However, once the system moves eastward, northwesterly flow over Lake Superior will dump over a foot of snow from Marquette to Newberry in the Upper Peninsula. 



This type of pattern almost always results in VERY heavy snow downwind of southern Lake Michigan, as a dominant convergence band sets up from Holland to Grand Rapids to Lansing.  This convergence is caused as winds to the south of Lake Michigan are slowed slightly by friction, and thus have a more southerly component due to the lesser Coriolis Force.  Also contributing to the more southerly direction is the tendency for the surface winds to be directed towards the thermal low over the warm lake waters.  Meanwhile, the winds over the almost friction-less lake waters are faster, and have a more westerly component due to the stronger Coriolis Force.  This results in an area of enhanced convergence from southern Lake Michigan northeastward, and an INTENSE single lake effect band often develops.  The same process occurs much more frequently downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, compounded by the shape of the lake.   The convergence band process for southern Lake Michigan is shown in the diagram below.  As the event materializes, I'll superimpose a radar loop on top of this cartoon, and will also create one for the classic Lake Erie convergent band. 


The forecast 850 mb temps and wind for Sunday evening is displayed below, showing the very cold west-southwest flow sweeping across the southern Great Lakes.  Another important factor influencing the intensity of lake effect is synoptic scale "upper support", such as cyclonic curvature in the mid- upper-levels, high relative humidity values in the 850-500 mb layer, and lobes of shortwave vorticity rotating around the parent cyclone (which almost always happens with a vertically-stacked system such as this.  All of these factors will be in place on Sunday-Monday across the Great Lakes Region, resulting in an incredible lake effect event.  The strong winds will also cause the bands to extend far inland, so not only the snow belts along the immediate eastern shores will get pounded from this event!  TornadoVideos.net will be documenting this lake effect snow storm from Grand Rapids, MI, which should be "ground zero" for WSW-ly flow.  Stay tuned for updates, pictures, and video!

Posted At: December 20, 2007 @ 11:26 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornado watches have been issued for this afternoon across the Central Gulf Coast from Louisiana east to southern Alabama, as a potent shortwave moves east through this evening.  Here are the two watches currently in effect as of 11:00 am CST:
  
As seen in the composite reflectivity images in the tornado watch graphics above, a strong bow echo is surging across southern Mississippi into southern Alabama.  Strong winds with gusts up to 80 mph will be possible with these linear storms as they move rapidly eastward.  The tornado threat is greatest to the south and east of this line where isolated supercells will have the opportunity to develop in a strongly sheared environment.  A warm front is draped across the Gulf of Mexico Coastline, with an uncapped, weakly unstable airmass located just to the south.  The most likely scenario is as follows:  HP supercells will develop along the Coastline or to the south over the Gulf of Mexico and will become surface-based in the weakly capped and strongly sheared environment.  These storms will move rapidly northward and will likely cross the warm front and become elevated in the more stable environment further inland.  These storms will have the potential of producing brief tornadoes during a small time window as they cross the warm front over southern LA, MS, and AL.  The warm front is clearly evident in the 1700z RUC analysis for CAPE below:


The strong low-level jet across this region can be seen in the RUC analysis below for 850 mb.  As can be seen, an LLJ of 40-50 knots exists over LA and MS as of 1700z, and the LLJ axis is likely moving slowly eastward as the shortwave advances.  This LLJ is responsible for the favorable low-level shear for tornadoes today across the Central Gulf Coast.  JY is located in Mobile, AL and is monitoring the situation closely.  Stay tuned for updates as this potentially dangerous severe weather situation unfolds!

Posted At: December 18, 2007 @ 5:24 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Warning!  Adult Language!
A new storm chasing show featuring the Outlaw Chasers (Randy Hicks and Lanny Dean) will air on Christmas night at 9:00 pm CST on Court TV.  Named "Tornado Hunters", the show will include insane footage from the past several years, as well as a portrayal of the unique personalities of these controversial, yet very successful storm chasers.  The footage on this show will be absolutely insane, and much of it has never been seen on television.  Different from the other shows premiering this year, "Tornado Hunters" will be factually and chronologically accurate, and will not have any faked re-enactments.  While I haven't heard from the production company as of yet, there may also be some TornadoVideos.net footage included in the show.   I highly recommend everyone to tune in to Court TV on Christmas night!!!  Shown above is a trailer about the Outlaw Chasers, and below is a link to the Court TV show schedule. 

http://www.courttv.com/onair/shows/upcoming_series/index.html

Posted At: December 17, 2007 @ 12:24 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is INCREDIBLE video of yesterday's blizzard from near Montreal, Quebec, shot by "Caro" during the peak of the storm.  This area was one of the hardest hit areas from the entire event!  20+ inches of snow will likely be the final tally here, combined with 50 mph wind gusts!  Thanks Caro for sharing this!

Posted At: December 15, 2007 @ 9:44 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong "Colorado Low" is currently moving northeast through the Ohio Valley, spreading very heavy snow across several major metropolitan areas, including St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  Total snowfall accumulations of well over a foot will be possible from Lower Michigan east to the Northeast, as the Colorado Low transitions into a Nor'Easter off the coast of New England by tomorrow evening.  As the low intensifies, strong winds will create blizzard conditions across these areas tomorrow, with considerable blowing and drifting of the snow.  Meanwhile, tornadoes have been reported in the warm sector of this system across the FL Panhandle and Georgia, with a tornado watch in effect across parts of Georgia and Florida this evening. 

Radar Summary:
Shown below is the radar loop from around 9:00 - 10:00 pm CST, showing the very heavy snow associated with the deformation zone from St. Louis through Lower Michigan, the warm advection-related snow in the Northeast, and the severe convection in the Southeast.


Model Data:
The GFS loop of forecast MSLP from Saturday evening through Monday evening shows the strengthening Colorado Low as it moves through the Ohio River Valley, and transitions to a strong Nor'Easter just off the coast of New England by Sunday evening. Note how the Nor'Easter strengthens to below 970 mb by Monday, as the surface low explodes along the coastal baroclinic zone. 

Winter Storm Watches, Warnings, and MDs:
Winter storm warnings are in effect from Missouri through central/northern Illinois, the Great Lakes Region, and New England, where over a foot of snow will fall through the early part of next week.  Many of these areas will be upgraded to blizzard warnings as winds pick up to greater than 40 mph in gusts..especially in New England by Sunday night through Monday.  Evening flood watches are in effect for the Ohio River Valley, where heavy snow fell earlier today before changing to rain.  INCREDIBLE WEATHER EVENT!!


Several mesoscale discussions have been issued for both winter weather and the severe weather in the warm sector.  Shown below is one issued for intense snowfall rates of an inch/hour or greater across central/northern IL extending into northwest IN and Lower MI.  In addition to intense snowfall rates, the slow-moving nature of this system is also a huge factor for the excessive snowfall amounts. 



Severe Weather Watches, Warnings, and MDs:
As is often the case these strong winter season storm systems, supercells and tornadoes are common in the warm sector across the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S., given the presence of a strong low-level jet and ample moisture pumped northward via the rapidly strengthening storm system.  Two damaging tornadoes have been reported so far, one in Santa Rosa County, FL earlier today, and another more recently in Wilcox County, GA, where a mobile home was severely damaged.  As the strong cold front moves east across GA and FL, more damaging tornadoes are a realistic possibility as the night progresses.  Stay tuned for updates as this intense winter storm system unfolds!

Posted At: December 14, 2007 @ 11:03 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As a strong upper trough moves east out of the Rocky Mountain region and into the Central Plains, a weak surface low will develop across South Texas and slowly strengthen as it moves east towards the Gulf Coast.  In response to vorticity advection associated with the upper system, a brief period of heavy snow will occur across northern OK, southern KS, and possibly western MO.   Generally 4-6 inches will fall across this region, with locally higher amounts where mesoscale bands or convective elements persist.  Shown below is the most recent Graphicast from NWS Norman:


The WRF and the GFS are consistent for the forecast precipitation associated with the Southern Plains dimension of this system, but with a few subtle differences in timing.  Both models forecast .5 to 1 inch of water equivalent over parts of southern and central KS, with the GFS accounting for the lower end of that range.  The respective forecast precip for the WRF and GFS are displayed below.  The GFS precip over KS looks substantially lower than the WRF, but this is because the GFS is slightly earlier with the timing of the precip in KS, so much of the snow falls before the 12-hr period below. 

As the trough continues to move east, and encounters the intense baroclinic zone along the East Coast (due to the warm waters of the Gulf Stream existing just east of the cold continental air), the real show begins.  An intense Nor'easter is forecast to rapidly intensify just off the coast of New England by Sunday, with the surface pressure decreasing below 980 mb by around 00z Monday.  VERY HEAVY SNOW and strong winds will create blizzard conditions across most of New England, with the exception of the immediate coastline which will receive mostly rain.  Over a foot of snow could fall across parts pf PA, upstate NY, VT, NH, ME, and western MA by Monday morning!!   The GFS forecast MSLP and precip valid for 00z Monday is displayed below, showing the classic Nor'easter.



Accordingly, the NWS has issued winter storm watches for the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England for the intense winter storm conditions expected this weekend.  Stay tuned for more updates as this dangerous situation unfolds.

Posted At: December 12, 2007 @ 10:05 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Thankfully for the residents of Oklahoma and Missouri, especially those who still don't have power, the new model runs have backed off significantly on the potential snow storm this weekend.  If the 00z WRF verifies, then 2-4 inches max will fall across northeast OK, with a dusting across surrounding areas.  As seen in the selected panels below valid for 12z Saturday, the upper vorticity maximum is much weaker than in previous runs, and the trough is more positively tilted and "sheared out" (see 500 mb map upper left below).   Thus, the surface features are  ill-defined  (see forecast surface map lower right below), and the resulting precipitation is MUCH less than previously forecast.   Still though, this potential snow event is a few days out, and much can change in the model forecasts between now and then.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: December 10, 2007 @ 4:27 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Posted At: December 10, 2007 @ 3:33 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is video of the ice storm in Norman, OK from Saturday afternoon and late Saturday night.  The heaviest of the freezing rain is now occurring in central OK, with frequent lightning and thunder.  Power outages are widespread, and numerous large trees are down.   Over an inch of ice has accumulated in areas from Southwest OK through the OKC Metro.  Stay tuned for a video update early tomorrow morning, when the damage will be apparent.

Posted At: December 10, 2007 @ 12:26 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Heavy freezing rain has been pounding central Oklahoma throughout Sunday afternoon and into tonight, with even more intense convective development near the Red River as of 12:30 am CST, which will be moving into the OKC area in the next few hours.  Here is a radar loop from over the last few hours:

Posted At: December 9, 2007 @ 7:21 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Intense convective freezing rain has been occurring over Southwest, Central, and Northeast Oklahoma all afternoon, and is expected to continue over night as intense warm advection occurs over the shallow Arctic airmass.  With ice accumulations over an inch expected in this area, power outages and treacherous road conditions are inevitable.  Our power has flickered several times here in Norman, and we're expecting it to go out permanently at any time.  The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion about an hour ago.:

Posted At: December 9, 2007 @ 12:09 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is an updated video of the ice accumulations in Norman, OK as of late Saturday morning from the convective freezing rain that occurred last night. Around 1/4 inch of ice accumulated mainly on the trees, vehicles, and grassy surfaces, but the worst is yet to come as the main storm system slowly ejects.

Temperatures have remained steady in the mid- to upper-20s over central and northern Oklahoma, with new convective precipitation developing over southwest OK.   The lull in the action that was expected today may not  happen, as conditions should deteriorate rapidly over the next few hours as the precipitation intensifies and moves northeastward.

Posted At: December 9, 2007 @ 4:11 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is video from late Saturday night (~1:00 am) in northwest Moore, OK, where an elevated supercell dropped over 1/4 inch of ice in less than an hour.  A few hours later, new convection developed in southern Oklahoma and moved north over the Norman/Oklahoma City area producing over 1/2 inch of ice over a few hours!  Heavy thunderstorms with frequent lightning and thunder have been producing very heavy freezing rain over the last few hours here in Norman as of 4:00 am!  A tree in our front yard is leaning over all the way to the ground under the weight of the heavy ice accumulation.  I would not be surprised if we lose power here very shortly, but I'll continue to post updates using my car battery as a power source.  Shown below is the TLX radar image from ~2:00-3:00 am CST, showing the intense convection moving through Norman.


Temperatures as of 4:00 am have dropped well below the freezing mark, with strong cold advection continuing at the surface! 

The National Weather Service in Norman just issued an Ice Storm Warning about 10 minutes ago for central Oklahoma for 1/4 to 1/2" ice accumulations from elevated thunderstorms.  I would bet we've already achieved that forecast amount, and may have an inch or more ice accumulations by morning!  As I type this, I can here the trees cracking from the weight of the ice, and heavy freezing rain is falling.

Posted At: December 8, 2007 @ 9:16 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Temperatures are falling rapidly across the Southern Plains, with a 50 degree F temperature change across the state of Oklahoma!  Temperatures are still around 70 in extreme southeast OK, and have fallen to around 20 in the extreme western OK Panhandle, as seen above in the loop from the Oklahoma Mesonet.  Temperatures are forecast to fall past the freezing mark by around midnight in the Oklahoma City area, with convective freezing rain developing by around the same time!   Accordingly, the National Weather Service in Norman has issued a freezing rain advisory for tonight across Central and Western OK, and have expanded the winter storm watch (for Sunday-Tuesday) southward a few counties because the Arctic airmass has surged further south than forecast by the models.  Total ice accumulations of an inch or more can be expected across Central and Western OK, which will cause widespread power outages, impassable roads, and downed trees.  Below is the text for the freezing rain advisory and winter storm watch from NWS Norman: 
Below are the recent Graphicast from NWS Norman and the watch warning summary for the entire U.S.  Based on the recent model data, I'd say that 0.5-1.0" of total ice accumulation is a very conservative estimate, and that many locations will receive well over an inch of ice by Tuesday morning!  Given the expected convective nature of the precipitation, I wouldn't be surprised if we even see some 2" ice accumulation reports. 


Winter Storm watches, freezing rain advisories, winter weather advisories, and winter storm warnings stretch from New Mexico northeast to Massachusetts, with freezing drizzle and light freezing rain falling all day long in the Kansas City area on Saturday.  However, the worst is not expected to arrive across the Central and Southern Plains until Sunday night, as the main upper system drifts slowly eastward across the Rockies.   Ice accumulations of an inch or more can be expected from Northwest Texas northeastward to the Great Lakes from Saturday night through Tuesday, with snow and sleet to the northwest.  Many similarities can be noted between this winter storm and the devastating ice storm of January 2007.   Stay tuned for updates on this dangerous weather situation...We'll be documenting the event as it unfolds here in Norman, OK, and will reposition if necessary to experience the most significant ice accumulations.

Posted At: December 7, 2007 @ 11:56 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A winter storm watch was issued for central and western Oklahoma just about 30 minutes ago for the possibility of a significant ice storm across the region.  The 12z WRF run this morning was colder at the surface than the 00z run last night, indicating that the freezing precipitation may occur even further south and east if this trend continues.  Additional watches will likely be issued further north and east if they haven't already.  Stay tuned for continuous updates on this potentially major ice storm!

Posted At: December 6, 2007 @ 10:01 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A cold, Arctic airmass will surge southward to the Southern Plains this weekend, setting the stage for a potentially major winter storm Sunday-Tuesday across Northwest Texas, Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, and into the Great Lakes thereafter.  A strong upper trough will advance across the Rockies into the Central U.S.  through the period, inducing a strong southerly low-level jet which will advect warm/moist air up and over the shallow Arctic airmass at low-levels  Given temperatures above freezing from the 925 to 800 mb layer, and a shallow layer of sub-freezing temperatures near the surface, freezing rain and sleet will be the predominate precipitation type across Northwest TX, Central OK, Southeast KS, and northern MO, with all snow to the immediate northwest.  Important parameters as forecast by the 00z WRF are displayed below, valid for Monday morning:



Based on the recent model data, which of course is subject to change given that the event is still a few days out, our best guess for precipitation type from Sunday morning through Tuesday is shown graphically below.  Since this could be a very significant winter storm, I've decided to remain in Norman for the weekend to document this thing from start to finish.  If necessary, we'll travel to wherever the conditions will be worst!

Posted At: December 6, 2007 @ 3:24 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

When you think about Hawaii, you probably think about this:
This is an image of Manua Loa on the Big Island erupting in 1975.


Manua Loa is over 13,000 feet tall on the Big Island. 

I'm pretty sure many tourists were not expecting this statement for their Hawaiian vacation: 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1102 AM HST THU DEC 6 2007

HIZ028-071015-
/O.EXT.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-071207T2200Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
1102 AM HST THU DEC 6 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM HST FRIDAY...

THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS IS EXTENDED UNTIL
12 PM HST FRIDAY.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY...WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

TRAVEL TO THE SUMMITS IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR
ALREADY OCCURRING.

I found a few amazing webcams on Manua Loa. 

Keep in mind, with the height of both Manua Loa and Maua Kea (both above 13,000 feet) it's not unusual for winter storms to bring snow! 

-JY

Reed will have an update later on a possible developing Ice Storm for Oklahoma this weekend!

Posted At: December 5, 2007 @ 12:01 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The favored lake effect zones for NNE flow are now getting pounded by heavy snow squalls, including the Chicago and Detroit areas as intense snow bands stream off of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, respectively.   Hardest hit areas today will be the Thumb of Michigan, northwest Lower Michigan, Erie, PA, and parts of Upstate New York south of Lake Ontario.  Lake effect snow warnings are in effect for these areas.   


Shown below are some pictures taken by Brady J. of the aftermath of the Duluth, MN lake effect event yesterday, where a foot of new snow fell on top of 10 inches from the previous storm!!

Posted At: December 4, 2007 @ 3:38 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out this incredible, small-scale lake effect event pounding Downtown Duluth today!!!! (Thanks Brady for pointing this out).  As a textbook Alberta Clipper passes just to the south of the MN Arrowhead, cold east-northeasterly low-level flow to the north of the system has resulted in a small, but INTENSE lake effect band nested within light-moderate synoptic scale snow.  3+ inch per hour snowfall rates are possible with this band, and the more intense convective elements have 7500+ foot cloud tops!!  I'll continue to update the loop below to show the entire evolution of this band.  Tim or Brady:  if you happen to get any pictures/video of this event PLEASE share them with us!


Here is the special weather statement from NWS Duluth:

Posted At: December 4, 2007 @ 3:28 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

An intense lake effect snow band has been pounding areas southeast of Georgian Bay between Toronto and Barrie, Ontario tonight with 3+ inch per hour snowfall rates, thunder, and lightning under the most intense part of the band! 

Posted At: December 3, 2007 @ 8:18 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Two major winter storms have been pounding opposite sides of the North American Continent today, with a rapidly strengthening nor'easter just off the coast of New England, and a strong storm system that moved into Pacific Northwest/western Canada today.  Over a foot of snow has fallen over parts of New England and eastern Canada, accompanied by very strong winds and massive drifting, and 6-12 inches have fallen across the northern Rocky Mountains and the adjacent Canadian High Plains.  Here are some pictures of each of these storms, thanks to Marc Farrar, "Caro" Richard, and Kenny A. 

Bangor, Maine (courtesy of Marc Farrar):





Near Montreal Quebec (courtesy of "Caro" Richard):





Edmonton Alberta (courtesy of Kenny A.):

Posted At: December 2, 2007 @ 5:39 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tonight's episode of Desperate Housewives, called "The Best DH Episode Ever", features a deadly tornado that roars through Wisteria Lane.  The episode airs at 9:00 pm EST (8:00 pm CST), and will include some of TornadoVideos.net's footage (the Manitoba, Canada tornado I believe).  While I don't watch this show, it will definitely be interesting to see how they use the footage.   

The trailer for the Tornado Episode can be viewed at the URL below.

http://abc.go.com/primetime/desperate/index?pn=index

Posted At: December 2, 2007 @ 11:43 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here are some pictures of the snow in Duluth, MN, shot by Brady this morning.  Duluth experienced the heaviest snow from this system given the lake enhancement off of Lake Superior, as cold easterly winds picked up moisture from the relatively warm lake waters.  Officially, 10.3 inches of snow fell at Duluth yesterday, with a few more inches since then.  Generally, 8-12 inches fell over the MN Arrowhead! 

Posted At: December 1, 2007 @ 11:56 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A massive shield of moderate to heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain has developed over the Central Plains, and has already begun to move into the western Great Lakes Region.  Shown below is the national radar composite from Saturday afternoon, but some of the colors are deceiving...While snow is indicated over most of Iowa and Illinois, this precip is actually falling as sleet and freezing rain, which often results in even more treacherous conditions than snow.  Check out the surface map below for the exact precip types as of noon CST.