TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: October 30, 2007 @ 12:25 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As recognized by the Guinness Book of World Records, the Mercedes-Benz Museum in Stuttgart, Germany is the home of the "strongest artificially generated tornado in the world.  The 34.4 meter high vortex was not originally intended to be an attraction, but was designed to channel smoke out of the building in case of a fire.  Using 144 jets and 28 tons of air, the tornado takes about 7 minutes to materialize.  Here is a video clip of the tornado in action:

Details of the story can be found at the following URL:
http://www.autoblog.com/2007/10/26/mercedes-benz-museum-contains-world-record-artificial-tornado/

Posted At: October 29, 2007 @ 12:57 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical Storm Noel is likely producing catastrophic flooding over mountainous Hispaniola tonight, as explosive convection on the north side of the tropical cyclone continues to pound southern Haiti and Dominican Republic.  While little strengthening has occurred over the last 24 hours, intense convection is ongoing on the north side of the circulation.  The 11:00 pm EDT NHC advisory from Sunday night still indicated maximum sustained winds of 50 kts.  An IR loop of Noel from over the last several hours is displayed below:


The mountains over southeastern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic are 8000+ feet in elevation, and are located very near to the coast.  Thus, orographic enhancement of the already heavy tropical rainfall must be out of control...Meaning that catastrophic flash floods and mud slides will be inevitable.  Here is a picture of the beautiful south-Haiti coastline, showing the proximity of the massive mountains to the sea:


Tropical Storm Noel is forecast to track slowly NNW as an upper-level anticyclone strengthens and drifts to the east.  Westerly wind shear and the mountains terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba will likely keep Noel from strengthening much more, but minimal hurricane status is definitely attainable.  Fortunately through, Noel will not impact the eastern U.S. Coast, except for slightly higher surf at the beaches.  The 5-day track forecast from the 11:00 pm EDT NHC advisory is displayed below:

Posted At: October 27, 2007 @ 11:36 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is some DRAMATIC video of a tornado in the town of Dunoon, New South Wales, Australia, captured by veteran storm chaser Jimmy Deguara of AustraliaSevereWeather.com.  The supercells occurred in New South Wales.  Note the multiple vortices in the tornado!

More pictures, video, and damage survey information can be found on the forum at AustraliaSevereWeather.com which is a highly recommended severe weather forum that will provide a unique perspective of severe weather over another part of the world.  More pictures and video frame captures can be seen at the following URL:
http://australiasevereweather.com/video/stills/2007/20071026.html

Check out this link for more pictures of the tornado (thanks Volker):
http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?2,1224756

Supercells and tornadoes are quite common over southeastern Australia, especially in the state of New South Wales, which is also Australia's most populous state.

Posted At: October 25, 2007 @ 3:07 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As I'm sure many of you have noticed, we added a new box on the right sidebar for the Feature Video of the Week, which we will update every Sunday with a new intense video.  These videos will be selected from a pool of submissions, or from our own video library if no one decides to submit their own.  If you would like to nominate a video for Feature Video of the Week, please email the link to reed@tornadovideos.net, and if selected, the video will be added at right.  The ultimate plan once we get everything up and running is to offer a prize for Feature Video of the Week nomination -- e.g. a tv.net t-shirt, coffee mug, tornado video, picture, etc.  Once again, this week's feature video was selected from our own library, and is displayed below (I'm sure all of you are getting sick of the Manitoba video by now!).

Posted At: October 24, 2007 @ 12:51 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A massive hail storm struck parts of Brazil on Saturday, October 20, producing 5+ inch diameter hail stones and widespread damage to roofs, vehicles, and crops.  Severe weather is very common this time of year across Brazil and Argentina east of the Andes Mountains, which is mid-spring in the Southern  Hemisphere.  Supercells and tornadoes are also common across this area, given strong LLJs that develop just to the east of the mountains.  Here are some pictures of the hail stones from the Oct 20 storm, from www.metsul.com.

Posted At: October 23, 2007 @ 2:19 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Wildfires continue to rage across parts of Southern California Tuesday, from the Mexico Border to north of Los Angeles.  More than 500,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in San Diego County alone!  The 3 fires north of Los Angeles may combine into one massive wildfire today, threatening 56,000 homes in the area, as strong Santa Ana winds continue across the region.  The satellite image below shows the fires well, with a few small fires as far south as the central Baja Peninsula. 

Posted At: October 22, 2007 @ 9:21 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Several small tornadic supercells developed over the Gulf of Mexico and moved rapidly northward across the LA, MS, and AL Gulf Coast this afternoon and evening, with at least 1 confirmed tornado touching down in Mobile County, AL.  The SPC has issued a tornado watch for this area until 11:00 pm CDT, as a line of embedded supercells continues to move east this evening.

Posted At: October 22, 2007 @ 3:01 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Massive wildfires have been ravaging several populated areas of southern California since the weekend, fueled by strong, hot, dry Santa Ana winds gusting over 80 mph at times.  The most significant fires are currently located in San Diego County, Malibu, Santa Clara, and Lake Arrowhead -- in the mountains east of Las Angeles.  The Santa Clara fire has burned over 12, 500 acres just 35 miles NW of Los Angeles, and 40-50 homes have been destroyed in Lake Arrowhead, with many more communities threatened or burning in Malibu, Santa Clara, and parts of San Diego County.  Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has declared a disaster area for seven counties in southern California!

Posted At: October 21, 2007 @ 2:26 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong cold front is currently moving through the OKC Metro area Sunday afternoon, with a 20+ deg F temperature fall anticipated over the next few hours.   As of  2:30 pm CDT, temperatures were in the mid 40s across the western OK Panhandle, where light snow is forecast tonight, and in the 80s over southern and eastern OK east of the cold front. The radar loop below shows the sharp cold frontal boundary very well:

The Oklahoma Mesonet map below shows the insane temperature variability across Oklahoma, and the sharp wind shift across the front.  I'm currently heading outside here in Norman to experience the abrupt temperature change. 

Posted At: October 21, 2007 @ 10:39 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A high risk for severe weather and tornadoes has been issued for southeastern Greece and the Aegean Sea this afternoon/evening by the European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX), as a strong shortwave trough ejects from the base of a larger, parent trough over the Mediterranean Sea.  Shown below is the graphic issued in the last hour (thanks to Volker for letting us know about this!).

The blue dots in the figure above are lightning stirkes, showing a massive MCS moving rapidly towards Greece from the Mediterranean.  While I have not been able to locate any model data, the text associated with this outlook states that sufficient deep-layer shear is present for supercells ahead of a cold front currently draped across central Greece, but there was no mention of the low-level shear values over the region.  More information on this severe weather setup, including reports, can be found at www.estofex.org.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: October 20, 2007 @ 3:38 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here are some pictures from the National Weather Festival held earlier today at the NWC in Norman, OK, featuring a storm chaser car show, weather balloon launch, and several very informative presentations. 
Here is the National Weather Center in Norman, OK, which houses the National Severe Storms Lab, Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service Norman Office, and the OU School of Meteorology. 

Above is one of the two "Smart-R" mobile doppler radars, which emits a radar beam with a 5 cm wavelength as compared to the 3 cm of the original DOWs...allowing for higher radar resolution given approximately the same size dish.  The Smart-Rs have gathered data during several U.S. hurricane landfalls and many other weather events. 

I was a little disappointed in the storm chaser car show overall, since there were only a few cars that entered, and most of them seemed to be local spotters or media chasers...Although a few of the cars were incredible.  One family from Blackwell, OK, who entered their decked-out, red hummer in the competition, stated adamantly that they were storm spotters and not storm chasers, acting as if the latter label would be an insult.  I'm thinking the only difference is that a spotter does not pursue the storm, but reports from a fixed location...so I'm not sure why she chased in a hummer, or entered the "storm chaser car show".


Here was the first of two attempted weather balloon launches...the one pictured here actually resulted in the balloon popping, but the second launch was a success. 

Posted At: October 19, 2007 @ 9:32 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A significant tornado outbreak struck the central U.S. from late afternoon yesterday through the overnight, with at least 29 tornadoes reported as of daybreak Friday, but this number will likely increase as damage surveys are conducted.  The most significant tornadoes occurred over northern and central MI, northern IN, southern IL, and western KY.  Sadly, 1 fatality was reported in Kalkaska, MI, but the final impacts from this outbreak will not be known for several days.  During the morning yesterday, a surprise supercell tornado also developed over the Gulf of Mexico and moved onshore at Pensacola, FL, causing EF2 damage.  Video clips of this tornado are shown below.


1513 UTC -- Pensacola -- Escambia Co, FL -- Large tornado with damage.  Moved into Pensacola from the Gulf of Mexico.
2340 UTC -- 5 SW Kalkaska -- Kalkaska Co, MI -- **1 FATAL** Tornado near intersection of Crofton and US 131.
0045 UTC -- 10 NW Hopkinsville -- Hopkins Co, KY -- Confirmed damage with injuries.
0100 UTC -- Nortonville -- Hopkins Co, KY -- Several buildings with severe damage.
0109 UTC -- 2 S Dawson Springs -- Caldwell Co, KY -- Confirmed tornado along Dawson Springs Road.  Individuals trapped in a mobile home.  Emergency responders enroute.
0225 UTC -- Nappanee -- Elkhart Co, IN -- Several reports of homes damaged.  Some injuries reported.  One police squad car damaged.
0252 UTC -- 2 SSE Perry -- Shiawassee, MI -- Confirmed tornado with 2 houses damaged.
0515 UTC -- 1 SSW Millington -- Tuscola, MI -- Confirmed tornado with 2 houses demolished. 

Videos of the Pensacola, FL Tornado:

Posted At: October 18, 2007 @ 9:05 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A very dangerous situation is occurring this evening in western Kentucky, as several tornadic supercells are tracking rapidly northeastward across the area.  Significant damage with injuries has been reported in two Kentucky Counties, with the second and third supercells N to S in the radar image below.  Here are the recent tornado reports from western KY:

0045 UTC -- 10 NW Hopkinsville -- Hopkins Co. -- Confirmed damage with injuries.
0100 UTC -- Nortonville -- Hopkins Co. -- Several buildings with severe damage.
0109 UTC -- 2 S Dawson Springs -- Caldwell Co. -- Confirmed tornado along Dawson Springs Road.  Individuals trapped in a mobile home.  Emergency responders enroute.

Shown below is the radar image from western KY from around 9:00 pm CDT, as confirmed long-track tornadoes were on the ground with the second and third supercells.  The southern supercell in the image below had the strongest velocity couplet, so a significant tornado was likely occurring with this storm as well.

Posted At: October 18, 2007 @ 7:31 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Several long-track tornadic supercells are moving rapidly across parts of Michigan, Illinoi, Indiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi as of 00z Thursday evening.  As of 7:30 pm CDT, 6 tornadoes have been reported, but this number will likely increase dramatically as the evening progresses.  The low-level jet is intensifying, and several discrete storms are taking advantage of this shear.  People in the watch areas shown below should pay close attention to local media for watch and warning updates. 


Shown below is the watch/warning display as of 7:30 pm CDT, with the blue dots representing severe thunderstorm warnings, and the red dots tornado warnings.  The most likely tornado producers are in northern/central MI, southeastern IL, western KY, and western TN.  More tornadic supercells may develop in northern MS along the cold front, and low-level shear is more than adequate for strong tornadoes here as well.  Stay tuned for continuous updates throughout the evening on this dangerous weather situation.

Posted At: October 18, 2007 @ 10:54 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong diurnal low-level jet and a massive uncapped warm sector will set the stage for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak today, with the possibility of strong tornadoes from southern Lower Michigan to northern Mississippi this afternoon.  Based on the latest RUC model data (selected panels below), 1500-2000 CAPE with 0 CIN will prevail across the entire warm sector, with ~40 knots at 850 mb as well.  The only negative factor for tornadoes is the near unidirectional flow with height, but with such high low-level shear, embedded supercells within linear structures will still be the dominant mode.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for the entire area mentioned above, including a "hatched area" for strong tornadoes, indicating a 10% or greater probability of an EF2-EF5 tornado within 25 miles of a point.  Based on this morning's model data, I would say the highest threat for a significant tornado will exist over southeastern IL, where the highest instability, most backed surface winds in the vicinity of the warm front, and strongest LLJ are located.  Stay tuned for continuous blog updates as this severe weather event unfolds!

Posted At: October 17, 2007 @ 10:21 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A lone tornadic supercell developed over the Ozarks of northwest Arkansas and moved northeastward through southwest Missouri yesterday evening, producing several confirmed tornadoes.   Debris was reported falling from the sky in Lawrence County, MO, where several structures were damaged.  Shown below is a radar loop showing the textbook tornadic supercell:

Here is a picture of one of the tornadoes, taken by a resident of the area:

While a significant tornado outbreak was anticipated over Kansas and Oklahoma, all of the tornadoes occurred  east of the Great Plains: in southwest MO and the western Gulf Coast.  A majority of these reports were associated with a single supercell that tracked across Lawrence and Greene Counties in MO between 2250 and 2338 UTC.  Thankfully, no injuries or fatalities have been reported.  Stay tuned for updates.

Posted At: October 17, 2007 @ 12:26 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Since we're already on the road, I haven't had time to post any model images, but the new RUC forecast is showing the best low-level shear over central/eastern OK northward into southeast KS by 21-00z.  Since the dryline is oriented northwest to southeast across north/northwest OK north of the bulge, the storms will initiate west of the best shear to the north, but within or near the best low-level shear over central/southern OK later this afternoon.  However, the storms that initiate in northwest OK will move rapidly northeastward into the good low-level shear.  The tracker should be working from here on out.  Good luck to all who are chasing!

Posted At: October 17, 2007 @ 12:31 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornadic supercells have developed in the Texas Panhandle and are currently (~12:30 am CDT) passing just to the south of Amarillo, TX with tornado warnings in effect.  It is difficult to tell if these cells are surface-based, or if they are slightly elevated in nature.  If surface-based, the strong low-level jet is generating favorable low-level shear for tornadoes tonight as these storms track northeastward.  Shown below is a loop of these supercells from over the last few hours:

Posted At: October 16, 2007 @ 2:36 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

If the 00z model runs verify for this Wednesday afternoon and evening, a classic Southern Plains tornado outbreak of historic proportions is likely this Wednesday afternoon and evening, with several long-track, violent tornadoes possible from central KS south to extreme north-central TX.  The WRF is forecasting an environment  of 1500-3000 J/kg CAPE, zero CIN, and 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km helicity for the entire warm sector east of a sharp dryline, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 in central OK!  The hodographs look very favorable for strong tornadoes, with INTENSE low-level shear.  Shown below are some forecast panels from this evening's WRF model, with the area of highest tornado threat shaded in red.  We will definitely be chasing this event!        

 


 
Not surprisingly, the SPC has issued a moderate risk for the above area, with the possibility for long-track, damaging tornadoes from central/southeast KS and the eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma.  Residents in this area should stay tuned to local media for the latest updates, as a very dangerous situation could unfold across the Southern Plains on Wednesday. 

Posted At: October 15, 2007 @ 3:50 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is a highlight video clip from storm chasing yesterday in southwest Oklahoma, featuring a massive gustnado that developed under a gust front and crossed the road a short distance in front of us.  Gustnadoes are most often associated with outflow-dominant situations, and usually consist of a mass of rotating dust.  In hindsight, we should have driven through it!

Posted At: October 14, 2007 @ 11:36 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong jet streak nosing into western OK late this afternoon and a strong diurnal low-level jet will create conditions favorable for supercells and isolated tornadoes across western and southwestern Oklahoma between 4 and 7 pm today.  A strong cold front is currently surging south across the Texas Panhandle, and will be oriented NNE to SSW across western OK by peak heating.  This boundary, and a dryline extending southward into northwest Texas, will create the necessary surface convergence for initiation around 4 pm, and a 30-35 knot low-level jet will lead to favorable low-level shear for tornadoes.  Our plan is to head west on I-40, and potentially dive south after any discrete storms that develop along or ahead of the cold front/dryline.  The tracker should be operational after we head out in a few hours!

The cold front shows up very well in the RUC forecast CAPE for 00z (below left), as a NNE to SSE boundary to the instability axis from central KS though western OK.  Supercell storm motions should be northeasterly, so storms will have the opportunity to move off the cold front and remain discrete.  The low-level jet is forecast to be marginally sufficient for tornadoes, with around 30 knots at 850 mb forecast for the entire warm sector (below right). 

 
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for central KS, western OK, and northwest Texas for this afternoon and evening, anticipating the development of supercells along and east of the cold front.  I wouldn't be surprised if the tornado probabilities are bumped up to 10% for western/southwestern OK in the next outlook, since the latest RUC forecast is looking increasingly favorable there.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: October 13, 2007 @ 12:01 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A narrow window for supercells will exist across west-central and southwest KS late this afternoon and early evening, near and just south of a consolidating triple point.  The depth of the moisture, a strong cap, and late timing of the jet streak are the main concerns today, but wind shear will be sufficient for tornadic supercells throughout the warm sector, especially around and after 00z.  RUC forecast loops for MSLP, 850 mb, CAPE, and precip are posted below.  Since we're anticipating initiation will hold off until very near or after sunset (if at all), we're going to sit this chase out and watch Oklahoma dominate Missouri.  Tomorrow still looks very interesting in western OK, and maybe in north-central KS as well....we'll definitely be chasing tomorrow.

 

 

Posted At: October 12, 2007 @ 11:26 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A classic dryline supercell setup is forecast for Sunday by both the WRF and the GFS models, with 2000+ J/kg CAPE and 200+ 0-1 km helicity along a 100 km wide path east of the dryline from western OK into central KS by 00z Monday (Sunday evening).   In addition to strong convergence along the dryline, an upper-level jet streak will also aid in convective initiation Sunday afternoon from central KS south to western OK.  We will definitely be chasing this event, so stay tuned for continuous updates!  We'll also have the live tracker up and running. 

Posted At: October 10, 2007 @ 10:47 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As a sign of things to come this winter, lake enhanced rain has been occurring this morning to the lee of Lake Superior across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan as cold air moves across the relatively warm lake waters on the back side of a strong upper low.  If temperatures were about 10 degrees colder overnight, a heavy lake effect snow storm would have occurred..Often during the late fall and early winter, the lake temperatures are so warm relative to the air that the precipitation immediately along the shoreline falls as rain, while just a few miles inland heavy snow is falling.  This weekend still looks very interesting for severe weather, especially on Sunday across Western OK!.

Posted At: October 9, 2007 @ 10:57 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

While it may be pointless to speculate this far in advance, the GFS has been consistent in predicting a nice trough to swing through the Southern Plains this weekend, bringing the potential for incredible shear on Saturday and Sunday.  In fact, this morning's GFS run for Saturday looks very similar to April 21, 2007, when the TX Panhandle experienced a major tornado outbreak.  If this model run verifies, which it very likely won't, the only limiting factor will be moisture -- but we thought that would also be a problem on April 21!  Shown below are the 500 mb and 850 mb GFS forecasts for Saturday and Sunday.

 

 

Posted At: October 8, 2007 @ 10:34 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong cold front just came through Norman, OK, accompanied by some convection, a 180 degree wind shift, and a 10 degree temperature change.  Temperatures now are around 60F, while ahead of the front, we were experiencing temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s.  Shown below is an Oklahoma Mesonet map from around 10:45 am showing the textbook cold front in southeast OK:

Posted At: October 7, 2007 @ 11:49 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is video of Typhoon Krosa as it made landfall in northern Taiwan yesterday, from typhoon chaser James Reynolds.  According to James, the eye actually made landfall twice as it made a cyclonic loop over the northern part of the island.  The Joint Typhoon Warning Center had the intensity of Krosa at 115 knots as it made landfall!

Posted At: October 6, 2007 @ 2:06 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Typhoon Krosa is just now making landfall on the extreme northeast coast of Taiwan, packing winds of ~120 knots, with higher gusts.  The earlier Joint Typhoon Warning Center outlook noted that Krosa was weakening, with an eroded northwest eyewall...However, it appears that this may have been associated with an eyewall replacement cycle, because the typhoon has strengthened rapidly the last few hours before landfall, with a well-defined central dense overcast and enclosed eye.   Typhoon chaser James Reynolds is currently in Taiwan, but I have not heard from him since his departure from China a few days ago.  Hopefully he is safe and will provide us with an update soon...the typhoon took a much further south track than was forecast by the JTWC, which means that the eyewall of this intense typhoon will persist over northern Taiwan (before the track had the eye barely missing the island to the north!)...bringing much more intense conditions to James' position.  Shown below is the most recent track map from the JTWC:

Posted At: October 4, 2007 @ 11:23 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is video of the tornado Volker mentioned in the previous blog entry, along with links to satellite loops, etc.  Definitely looks like a wedge to me, with multiple suction vortices.  Here is the link showing all the severe reports:  http://essl.org/cgi-bin/eswd.cgi

Posted At: October 4, 2007 @ 11:56 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A massive trough is expected to move across the Western U.S. this weekend, with the potential for severe weather outbreaks on Friday and especially Saturday.  Check out the trough below in the WRF forecast 500 mb fields for Friday (left) and Saturday (right).

 
As seen below, the WRF is forecasting a strong cap to persist south of the warm front on Friday, with a minimum of around -30 to -50 J/kg CIN in northeast SD.  The wind sear is very good along the warm front, so if a surface-based storm can get going in that environment, all hell could break loose.  However, the models seem to be trending towards a stronger cap on Friday with each consecutive model run, so the potential for surface based storms is decreasing. 

The cap will not be a problem on Saturday, with good instability and weak to zero CIN from northwest MN and eastern ND southward to northern NE.  The main question on Saturday will be if the storms can move off the cold front and remain discrete.  Storm motions are forecast to be nearly parallel to the cold front, which usually means a squall line...However, if storms can remain discrete, the wind shear is VERY impressive just east of the cold front.  I'm still trying to decide on whether to chase on Friday...it's very long drive and the cost of gas may not be worth the potential for a cap bust.  If I leave...it will probably be tonight so that I can get in position for Friday, and then will stay up there for a chase on Saturday.  Stay tuned for updates!

 

Posted At: October 3, 2007 @ 1:48 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong upper trough will move across the Western U.S. early this weekend, inducing a strong low-level jet across the entire Great Plains from Thursday night through Saturday, with 850 mb winds in 30-40+ knot range through the entire period.  Sufficient uncapped instability will prevail across the entire warm sector from KS to MN on Friday and Saturday, with favorable low-level and deep-layer shear for strong tornadoes on both days.  However, a lot can still change between now and then, but if these model runs verify then we will definitely be chasing this weekend.  Shown below are some selected forecasts from the 12z WRF run for Friday and Saturday.
 

 
A few potential negative factors are the strength of the cap (esp. on Friday), and the proximity of the LLJ to the initiating boundary (esp. on Friday).  The Storm Prediction Center has very strong wording in their Day 3 outlook for Friday, with the mention of strong tornadoes if surface-based convection can initiate south of the warm front.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: October 2, 2007 @ 11:00 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is a radar reflectivity loop from late afternoon yesterday, as the damaging tornadoes were on the ground in northeast MO.  The radar is loop is from 2227 UTC to 0005 UTC, and the tornadoes occurred from 2140 UTC to 2320 UTC.  I have not yet been able to locate any photos or videos of the tornadoes.

Posted At: October 2, 2007 @ 6:58 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Ten tornadoes have been reported as of 7:00 pm CDT in northeast MO and southeast IA today, with at least two injuries confirmed in Monroe County, MO.  The surface winds back substantially today over northeast MO, southeast IA, and IL ahead of a strengthening surface low, resulting in extreme low-level helicity values ahead of a seemingly linear convective arc.  As the storms encountered the favorable shear, an outbreak of damaging tornadoes resulted, and will continue for at least a few more hours across IL.  Below is a map of the tornado reports as of 7:00 pm CDT:

Posted At: October 2, 2007 @ 3:28 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for northern OK, southeastern KS, and central MO until 10 pm CDT tonight, for a large linear convective complex that has persisted and intensified ahead of the cold front during the day today.  Strong straight-line winds will likely be the only threat with this convection, and a second band of linear convection has developed along the cold front further west, and will likely intensify through the evening.  As the convection closes in on Norman tonight, I'll likely be heading out for some lightning shots...if anyone else shoots some good photo/video of tonight's storms, and would give me permission to post them on the blog, please email them to reed@tornadovideos.net.

Posted At: October 2, 2007 @ 2:47 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow,  from northern IL SSW to north-central OK, with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes being the main threats.  The best chance for tornadoes will be over southeast KS and central/southwest MO by late afternoon, where the best low-level shear and storm motions perpendicular to the boundary will be present.  I haven't had much time to look at the models, but I may fly northeast towards SE KS at the last second if conditions look favorable enough. 

One concern I have for central MO southwest to OK is that this region is forecast to be in the wake of the 500 mb shortwave by late afternoon/early evening, which may limit the shear slightly as 850 mb winds veer and weaken.  We'll see how the RUC and 12z WRF handle this situation in the morning.
Stay tuned for updates!