TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: September 23, 2006 @ 4:35 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

     

As of early Saturday morning, 37 tornadoes have been reported across MO, AR, IL, AL, TN, and KY! 

We began our chase during this historic tornado outbreak  in Springfield, MO, when storms began to fire by late morning in a weakly capped, strongly sheared environment.  The first tornado warning was issued to the NNE of Springfield, and the storm was moving at 50+ mph, so we new we had to fly.  We gradually caught up with the storm as it continued to gain strength and cycle.  The structure on this supercell was TEXTBOOK, and we thought we were definitely going to see a large tornado.  Just as we were passing underneath the RFD gustfront a few miles east of Rolla, we encountered a traffic jam!  We could see the right edge of an incredible wall cloud only a few miles to our northeast, with a likely tornado barely obscured by the hook rain.  If we hadn't encountered this traffic jam, we would have seen a tornado a few minutes later right along the interstate!  In immense frustration, we watched this incredible supercell move abruptly away from us as we sat in a traffic jam 2 miles west of St. James, MO, where two damaging tornadoes were reported. 

We then decided to head south out of St. James to catch new development in northwest AR later in the afternoon.  We battled through motion sickness for 3 hours as we drove south through the heart of the Ozarks towards new convective development to our southwest.  As we travelled south through the mountainous terrain, a supercell in north-central AR at the southern end of a broken line of storms caught our attention, so we decided to intercept it.   We knew the terrain would make it almost impossible to see a tornado, but we were desperate, and we saw a tornado just west of Ash Flat, AR in the middle of the Ozarks.  The structure of this supercell was amazing.  Displayed here are some still frames, video, and radar images with our position indicated by the white circle.

Maybe the first F-5 since May 3, 1999????



     
 
     

     

     

     

         

Posted At: September 22, 2006 @ 11:36 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A particularly dangerous situation (PDS) tornado watch has just been issued for southwest MO.  We are currently on I-44 in pursuit of a tornado-warned storm.  We are having a few technical difficulties with the tracker, but should have it up shortly.  We will continually update the blog throughout the day.

Posted At: September 21, 2006 @ 10:28 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Reed and Joel captured a beautiful, striated supercell at sunset in southeast OK on Thursday.  Unfortunately, we could not pursue this potential tornado-producer because of the lack of road options through the mountainous southeast OK terrain.  We made a valiant attempt at punching through the hook of this storm near Atoka, OK, but the storm was moving far too fast.  Given its incredible structure and radar presentation, it is very likely this storm went on to produce a tornado.  Frame captures and video of the "flying saucer"-like supercell are displayed below, along with radar images near the time of the pictures/video.  Our position was indicated by the white circle.  Note the inflow bands on the southeast side of the storm.
   

   

   

   

   

   

   

Posted At: September 21, 2006 @ 9:18 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A very intense, dynamic upper-level storm system is forecast to sweep across the Central Great Plains today, yielding the potential for tornadic supercells underneath the "cold core" in central KS by early afternoon, and in the warm sector in southern KS and OK by late afternoon and evening.  The wind fields are incredible with this event, with extreme low-level wind shear expected over the above areas.  The deep moisture is rapidly returning, with deep tropical moisture already in central Texas by early this morning.   The WRF and RUC model forecasts for this evening look quite promising for tornadic supercells over central and eastern OK.  We will be monitoring this situation very closely, and will likely have the GPS tracker up and running by mid- to late-afternoon.  The RUC forecast for 00z tonight for precipitation, CAPE, and 850 mb flow are shown below.
 

Posted At: September 17, 2006 @ 12:57 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

After 60,000+ miles driven, two destroyed windshields, and one tornado from 30 miles away so far in 2006, we finally saw some tornadoes!!  We intercepted the storm immediately after it initiated around 3:30 pm, and a wall cloud was observed right away.  As the storm raced towards our location, the textbook wall cloud began to rotate rapidly, and a tornado warning was issued, I believe around 4 pm.  As the wall cloud approached us at a high rate of speed, it began to tighten up into a violently rotating bulb, which had a fairly large dust cloud underneath it shortly thereafter.  We were only about 1/2 mile north of this developing tornado as it raced northeastward at 45+ mph.  Just as the condensation funnel was extending to the ground in the field next to us, we were blasted by a heavy rain curtain that obscured our view temporarily.  Thus, we raced to the east and then north and witnessed a fairly intense, white stovepipe crossing the road to our north as we emerged from the hook rain.  This tornado had a beautiful rope phase, and overturned a semi-truck as it crossed I-90.  

The second tornado occurred in Minnehaha County and was a nice elephant trunk-shaped tornado with a large dust/debris cloud.  This tornado unfortunately destroyed a home, and the people survived the tornado in their basement with no injuries.  Shortly after this tornado, we saw a second rope tornado as the supercell crossed into Minnesota.  Some pictures of the various tornadoes are posted below, followed by a few radar images with our position indicated by the white circle.  A detailed chase log will be posted shortly.  The footage can be seen on CNN.

Posted At: September 16, 2006 @ 9:06 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Impressive deep and low-level shear along with moderate to strong instability will set the stage for a widespread severe weather outbreak today, including the possibility of tornadoes.  We are currently (Saturday morning) analyzing data and model forecasts at a hotel in Omaha, NE, and our target area is Yankton, SD, because we can fly south into northeast NE if necessary, and also have W, E, and N road options.  The RUC and the WRF are forecasting the best instability in southeast SD, with a strong surface low propagating through that region as well.   The deep layer shear vector is also more perpendicular to the front north of the frontal bulge.  The 12z WRF model forecast for 00z Sunday for CAPE, 850 mb flow, and 0-1 km helicity are displayed below.  The forecast helicity values, while sufficient for tornadoes in southeast SD, will likely be higher than the WRF forecast just east of the surface low (smoothing issues).

CAPE

850 mb wind

0-1 km helicity

 

Posted At: September 15, 2006 @ 12:43 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

TornadoVideos.net has both modes of this bi-modal severe weather even covered.  The moisture and instability is higher in western OK, while the wind shear is much more extreme in southern NE and northern KS.  Joel will be heading to western OK today, while I (Reed) will be heading to southern NE with Dave Holder.  We'll have the GPS tracker in our car in NE, and stay tuned for video updates throughout the day.  The two modes are shown in the RUC forecast precip for 00z Saturday.  One reason we chose NE over OK is because the left exit of an upper jet streak will pass over that region (below right), in addition to the INCREDIBLE shear.
                          

Posted At: September 14, 2006 @ 11:55 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

              **STAY TUNED FOR VIDEO UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND**

Tornadic supercells appear likely on Friday and especially Saturday over portions of the Great Plains, and TornadoVideos.net will be seeking redemption after a horrible 2006 tornado season.  It's been a depressing yearr for us so far with several missed opportunities.  On August 14, we decided againstt heading to South Dakota for a potential tornado event, after experiencing "clear sky busts" about a dozen times in the Northern Plains and southern Canada this year, and we missed two incredible tornadic supercells that put down 10+ tornadoes.   We need to see a tornado this weekend  or we'll go off the deep end.

If moisture returns and storms initiate, Friday could be a good day in northern Kansas and Nebraska.  The wind shear is fairly good, but a strong cap could prevent storms from initiating.  Both the WRF and the GFS are forecasting initiation in central Nebraska, so that is our initial target for tomorrow (Friday).  However, if moisture is slow to return, we may have to adjust southward to southwest KS or even northwest OK.  Initiation in central NE should be aided by the left exit region of an upper level jet streak (see WRF 250 mb forecast below).  The 00z Friday  WRF forecast 250 and 850 mb flow and CAPE for 00z Saturday are displayed below.

250 mb wind

WRF FORECAST        00Z SATURDAY                            850 mb wind

CAPE

Tornadic supercells are more likely to occur on Saturday than Friday, since moisture will have a chance to return and low-level shear will be much stronger.  As seen below, in extreme eastern NE and western IA, 0-1 km helicity values are greater than 200 m2/s2 and CAPEs are greater than 2500 J/kg; values adequate for strong tornadoes.  Also, the deep layer shear vector is nearly perpendicular to the cold front further to the north.  We are very optimistic about Saturday.  The 00z Friday WRF forecast CAPE left and 0-1 km helicity right for 00z Sunday are displayed below. 

                                                   WRF FORECAST
                                                      00Z SUNDAY
                  
                                   

Posted At: September 13, 2006 @ 10:08 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A huge trough is expected to build over the western U.S. by Friday, September 15, with a 985 mb surface low and a strong low level jet developing over the Great Plains.  Strong deep layer shear will also be in place by Friday ahead of the trough over the Plains, over a weakly capped environment with moderate instability (CAPEs 2000+ J/kg).  Given the kinematic strength of this system, the stage is set for a severe weather outbreak this weekend with several tornadoes, potentially on multiple days.   Although the event is still a few days out, it appears that the most likely areas for severe weather and tornadoes will be over western OK, KS and the Texas Panhandle on Friday, and Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois on Saturday as the system propagates rapidly eastward.   Displayed below are some selected parameters from the 12z WRF

500 mb	850 mb
CAPE	0-3 km Helicity

Posted At: September 11, 2006 @ 8:33 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

At 8:00 am AST, Florence was located 60 miles west of Bermuda with sustained winds of 80 mph and a minimum central pressure of 974 mb.  Although the central pressure has decreased slightly, the maximum sustained winds of Florence have increased overnight because the windfield has expanded.  A 96 mph wind gust was reported at an elevated station on the southern tip of the island.  Florence will continue to produce hurricane-force winds over Bermuda as it continues its recurve to the northeast, and will transition to a powerful mid-latitude cyclone in the next few days.

The satellite image below (left) shows that the convection has intensified over the southern and western portions of the cyclone.  However, the radar image from Bermuda (right) reveals that the eye is not closed, and appears to be completely open on the entire southern side!  This is a good sign for Bermuda.
     

Posted At: September 10, 2006 @ 10:59 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Florence was upgraded to a hurricane by the 11 am EDT NHC update, with sustained winds of 80 mph and an estimated central pressure of 976 mb.  A hurricane hunter aircraft was set to investigate the system at 1800 UTC, so we will soon see how accurate these estimations are.  Despite having an impressive satellite presentation for the last few days, Florence intensified VERY slowly and remained a tropical storm with an elongated center of circulation.  Even though the cloud tops have warmed slightly overnight, the center of Florence became better defined with a large eye appearing on satellite, hence the NHC upgraded the cyclone to hurricane strength. 

Hurricane Florence is expected to strengthen to a strong category 2 hurricane before passing just to the west of Bermuda, with forecast sustained winds of 95 knots!  Also, Bermuda will likely be in the right eyewall of the hurricane, which is where the strongest winds and storm surge will be located.  Florence is a very large tropical cyclone, with tropical storm force winds already impacting Bermuda as of Sunday morning!  A 46 mph wind gust was reported at the south tip of the island this morning.  Shown below are satellite images of Florence, along with the 11 am forecast track of the NHC.
    

  

Posted At: September 8, 2006 @ 11:10 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

While tropical storm Florence has had difficulty intensifying the last several days, it appears that it will likely become a hurricane in the next day or so, and will begin a recurve and acceleration directly towards Bermuda by Monday morning.  Florence has looked extremely ragged over the last several days, without a well-defined circulation center.  The cyclone remains a very large tropical storm as of Friday morning, with sustained winds near 45 knots, and has recently shown signs of intensification.  The NHC forecast has Florence with sustained winds of 85 knots at landfall near Bermuda.  If we hadn't just chased a hurricane in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and if this storm were slightly stronger, we would likely be enroute to Bermuda by this time.  However, I am not counting this out!
     

Posted At: September 6, 2006 @ 9:43 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical Storm Flo now has sustained estimated winds at 45 kts, and is expected to intensify to 95 kts in 4 days.  Larger tropical cyclones tend to intensify more slowly than smaller storms, thus rapid intensification is not anticipated.  A large East Coast trough is expected to steer Florence to the north in the 4-6 day period, thus this large tropical cyclone will likely miss the U.S.  However, there is a possibility that Bermuda could sustain a direct hit.  As seen below in the IR (left) and visible (right) imagery from this morning (Wednesday), most of the intense convection is focused northeast of the center, which is consistent with its slow intensification.  We are monitoring this system closely, and we might book a ticket to Bermuda if we feel like a gamble.
     

Posted At: September 2, 2006 @ 4:58 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out this news article about our time here in Cabo.  We were trying to convince the Reuters journalist to travel east with us to catch the brunt of the hurricane.

He wrote a nice article that summarizes our stormchasing very well.

Click here for the article.

and the Saudi Arabia press agency:
 Click here for the SAPA article

Posted At: September 2, 2006 @ 11:43 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Joel and I decided to ask around the hotel to see if we could find anyone to drive us east to intercept the Hurricane.  Our friend Gabriel, who drives an explorer with massive tires, and who is very experienced off-roader, offered to chase the hurricane with us.  We were told we needed a truck, because the roads east of San Jose along the coast are dirt/rock, and pass right along the edge of huge cliffs.  We drove through several flash floods at a very high rate of speed, and were able to make it about 50 miles west of here before running low on gas.  Also, the road curved inland to the northwest into the mountains away from the coast, so we travelled as far east as possible.

The conditions gradually deteriorated on our trip east, and we documented the peak of the storm from the beach at our furthest east point.  Winds were gusting to hurricane force, and waves were massive.  However, this was MUCH less than we thought we would experience from this hurricane.  On the way back, near sunset, we encountered a large flash flood with muddy water racing across the road...We then were pulled through by a large bulldozer who was offering to pull vehicles across for a price.  Our other option was to spend the night in Gabriel's truck, and potentially be stuck there for a few days.  The rain was falling in the mountains to the north, so the mud flow was only getting larger.

We made it through the flood safely, and fortunately realized the little or no damage at our "home base" in Cabo San Lucas.  Further east along the eastern tip of the Baja, however, the threat of flash floods/mud slides will continue for the next several days.  As of now, the airport at San Jose is close, but it is expected to reopen later today, so that we will be able to arrive back in OKC Sunday night. 

Many thanks to Gabriel, because without him, we would have come all this way for nothing.  Because of Gabriel, we were able to at least experience some gusts to hurricane force and a mudslide.  Displayed below are some still pictures from our trip, and beautiful from our friend and photographer Diego Guzman (local of Cabo) of waves crashing into a reef.
Shown below is a picture courtesy of photographer Diego Guzman, from a beach near Cabo San Lucas, which escaped the brunt of the storm:


**Also, congratulations to Chris and Jamie, who just got engaged the night before the hurricane!

Posted At: September 1, 2006 @ 6:00 PM

Posted By: Jason Fill

Reed and Joel set out to get in a better position to better document Hurricane John.  It is predicted that John will cross back over the Baja.  Reed and Joel caught a ride with Gabriel who has an Explorer to reposition themselves.

At this point I do not know much, I will post more information as it becomes available.

-- Jason

Posted At: September 1, 2006 @ 3:27 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Miraculously, Hurricane John appears to be passing well to our east at this time.  Last night, we thought it was going to miss us to the west, and we woke up this morning and it was heading straight for us.  During the day today, however, the storm has jogged well to the north of the official NHC forecast track and the model guidance.  Now, the forecast models all have John heading up the east side of the Baja Peninsula, before either crossing into the southwest US or back into the Pacific.  Right here just east of Cabo San Lucas, huge waves were the main show.  We've had some gusts to tropical storm force in many of the outer bands, but this is definitely not what we were expecting.

We are now attempting to find a car to drive east and document the landfall...although we might be picked up by the military if we're out on the road.
     

Posted At: September 1, 2006 @ 11:20 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Hurricane John looks amazing on satellite as of 11:30 PST and is definitely gaining strength as it is approaching, with a "stadium" eye that is perfectly clear.   We are hoping for a slight wobble to the west, because that would put us directly within the eye when it makes landfall.  The video from within this textbook eye will be INCREDIBLE!  The waves here are massive...the locals are telling us that these are the largest waves they have ever seen here.

We're expecting John to make landfall during the late afternoon or early evening...probably about 6 hours from now...hopefully it will occur during daylight hours so we can see within the eye.  It will be a long night tonight regardless!  Our room is very safe, however.

Below is a satellite image from around 11:30 PST, and a radar image from Cabo San Lucas.  You can see that a larger eye is beginning to form...this is likely the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle...so further intensification is possible.  Also shown below are some pictures of the waves from about an hour ago.
    

Posted At: September 1, 2006 @ 5:52 AM

Posted By: Joel Taylor

With mixed emotions, Reed and I decided to get some sleep around 1 am PST.  The hurricane was showing signs of rapid intensification, however, it was also taking a hard left turn moving almost due west.  This would have taken the hurricane well south of our location.  It is now 6:15 am PST  and we have just woken to get an update.  The hurricane has resumed its northwest motion and is now right of the official forecast which, if maintained, will bring the eye directly over us.

You can see the textbook eye of John in both the satellite and radar images below.  The jog to the left has slowed the progression of John slightly, so we are now expecting an early afternoon landfall.  Winds have already increased and are now steady out of the SE at around 30 mph.  Wave height continues to grow and they are now absolutely huge.  Last night we could see continuous lightning on the SE horizon, coincident with rapid strengthening.  This will likely be by far the most intense hurricane that both Reed and I have witnessed.  We believe there will be major damage to Cabo San Lucas and the surrounding areas.  Our exact location is 6 miles east of the SW tip of the Baja Peninsula and approximately 40 feet inland.  We will be posting a video update as soon as we get daylight. -- Joel
     

Posted At: September 1, 2006 @ 1:03 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As expected, Hurricane John appears to be intensifying rapidly tonight, with intense convection exploding and the eye becoming much more defined on satellite.  It looks like John will definitely be a category 3 or 4 at landfall.  In fact, John is now looking INCREDIBLE!  However, it appears that John is moving more towards the west now, which could lead to the storm completely missing the Baja Peninsula, especially considering it's such a small tropical cyclone.  This could be a temporary "wobble", and it could regain its NNW movement and pummel is in the morning.  We'll keep you updated, and will post more video updates as the storm comes ashore.

The hotel staff informed us of an observation deck on the 5th floor of the hotel, so we're planning on documenting the hurricane from there, where the winds will be the strongest.  They are forcing all others who stayed behind into the "ball room" where no windows are present.