TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: August 30, 2006 @ 11:39 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

At the last second, we decided to purchase a plane ticket to Cabo San Lucas to document Hurricane John, which is forecast to pummel Cabo on Friday as a category 4 hurricane.  Our flight leaves in a few hours, and we arrive in Cabo at 9:00 pm local time, and we'll find a suitable shelter thereafter.  We will begin posting continuous video updates on the site as soon as we arrive.  This is a very exciting, potentially dangerous adventure.  We are now packing our supplies, which will include enough food and water for several days, helmets, rain suits, goggles, and protective camera equipment.  STAY TUNED!!

Media can contact Reed via cell phone at 405-206-2307.

Posted At: August 29, 2006 @ 3:16 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical storm Ernesto has not strengthened today, despite being over the warm waters of the Florida Strait, likely because of moderate easterly wind shear.  As of 2:00 pm EDT, the maximum sustained winds of Ernesto were a mere 45 mph, with tropical storm force winds extending 105 miles from the center.  The only threats Ernesto will pose as it makes landfall are isolated tornadoes and flooding rains of 5-10 inches.  Ernesto still could regain hurricane status after it re-emerges over the Atlantic, thus hurricane watches have been posted from the Georgia to souhtern North Carolina Coast.   Displayed below is a radar image and satellite images from around 5:00 CDT, and the NHC forecast track issued at 2:00 pm EDT.  Fortunately, we did not chase this weakly rotating fog bank.

Posted At: August 28, 2006 @ 9:35 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical storm Ernesto made landfall just west of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba at around 7 am EDT, and is now moving over mountainous terrain in southeast Cuba.  Rapid weakening is expected over the near term as Ernesto passes over Cuba, and will likely be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm when it re-ermerges over the Florida Straits.  Modest strengthening will likely occur thereafter, and Ernesto will likely be a category 1 hurricane when it makes landfall over South Florida in 48 hours.  Given that Ernesto will be an fairly weak hurricane, the TornadoVideos.net team has decided not to deploy for this event, since we could drive to a thunderstorm in western Oklahoma and experience the same wind speeds.

Posted At: August 27, 2006 @ 12:13 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As expected, Ernesto strengthened into a minimal hurricane overnight, but appears to be weakening slightly during the daylight hours because of the diurnal cycle.  Still though, Hurricane Ernesto could strengthen substantially before slamming into Cuba in about 30 hours.  The 11 am EDT National Hurricane Center forecast shifted the track much further east, predicting a landfall near Tampa, FL overnight Wednesday.  Given minimal wind shear aloft, the only factor limiting Ernesto from becoming a major hurricane is land interaction.  However, a category 3 storm is definitely not out of the question since conditions will be extremely favorable for RAPID strengthening when Ernesto re-emerges over the southeastern Gulf.  A similar track to Hurricane Charlie is likely, with a similar rate of strengthening not out of the question (Charlie made landfall in western FL as a category 4).

Posted At: August 27, 2006 @ 1:44 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Ernesto is undergoing rapid strengthening Saturday night with explosive development of convection near its center.  Filaments in the outflow presentation on the satellite images below are indicative of rapid intensification, and Ernesto will likely be upgraded to hurricane status by the next National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory.  The forecast track remains similar to the 11 am EDT NHC advisory (see previous post), with a landfall somewhere on the central Gulf Coast late in the week.

We plan to document this entire hurricane from "ground zero", to capture video from the immediate coastline as the storm makes landfall.   We will be uploading breaking news video updates throughout the trip as long as the cell phone towers are standing...so stay tuned to TornadoVideos.net for breaking news of this potentially historical event.

MEDIA CAN CONTACT REED TIMMER BY CELL PHONE AT 405-206-2307.

 

Posted At: August 26, 2006 @ 5:18 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical storm Ernesto is expected to undergo explosive strengthening beginning Saturday night or Sunday as upper-level wind shear decreases.  As of 5 pm Saturday, Ernesto was located south of Hispaniola with maximum sustained winds near 50 kts.  The central pressure fell slightly to 997 mb, and the center had reformed east of its previous position closer to the most intense convection.  Ernesto is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane (category 3 or 4) in the next few days as it passes near the western tip of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico.  This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS situation for the Gulf Coast.  At this time, Ernesto is forecast to make landfall in the LA/MS/AL area around Friday.

We plan to document this entire hurricane from "ground zero", to capture video from the immediate coastline as the storm makes landfall.   We will be uploading breaking news video updates throughout the trip as long as the cell phone towers are standing...so stay tuned to TornadoVideos.net for breaking news of this potentially historical event.

MEDIA CAN CONTACT REED TIMMER BY CELL PHONE AT 405-206-2307.

Posted At: August 25, 2006 @ 4:06 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical Storm Ernesto is slowly gaining strength in the Caribbean with estimated sustained winds at 35 knots and a central pressure of 1004 mb.  Nearly all models forecast Ernesto to pass between the Yucatan and Cuba and to enter the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.  A strong ridge is forecast to build over the Gulf by that same time, thus explosive strengthening is definitely possible before a landfall somewhere between Texas and Louisiana.  We plan to leave by the middle of next week to document Ernesto from "ground zero".  Stay tuned for more updates.
 
                                                  

Posted At: August 24, 2006 @ 7:12 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Over 20 tornadoes have been reported today in South Dakota and Minnesota as of 8 pm CDT.  Several of the tornadoes were large, violent tornadoes causing extensive damage!  Our friend from Stormgasm (Simon Brewer) captured INCREDIBLE footage of the tornado in south-central MN, and informed us that it was a damaging, violent wedge.  He was only a few hundred yards away from the wedge as it destroyed several structures.  We'll keep you updated on Simon's footage...stay tuned.

Meanwhile, a quarter-mile wide tornado was reported doing damage near Huron, SD.  This tornado was a long-track tornado, and may still be on the ground at 8 pm!  Here are some radar images from the Huron tornado. 
                                 

Posted At: August 23, 2006 @ 9:48 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tropical storm Debbie is slowly gaining strength in the eastern Atlantic with sustained winds estimated at 45 knots as of Wednesday morning.  The storm is forecast to become a weak hurricane in 3-5 days, but will then begin a recurve towards the north and will likely exhibit extra-tropical characteristics shortly thereafter.  We will continue to monitor Debbie, but will soon shift our focus to the strong tropical wave currently moving off the African Coast.
           

Posted At: August 22, 2006 @ 10:24 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong tropical wave that just recently passed into the Atlantic from the African Coast was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4 yesterday (Monday) afternoon, and has shown signs of strengthening overnight, with increased convection and banding evident in the infra-red satellite image.   Two forecast models predict the tropical cyclone will recurve to the north in about 5 days and completely miss the US East Coast, while two other models show the cyclone weakening but continuing westward, maybe into the Gulf of Mexico where restrengthening is possible.  TD4 is expected to become a strong tropical cyclone over the next three days, but wind shear may keep it from becoming a hurricane in the near term.
                   

Even if TD4 turns out to be a dud, it appears that the African Monsoon has been far above normal recently, after a well below normal beginning.  Therefore, we will likely have more and stronger tropical waves moving off Africa for the remainder of the hurricane season, and TornadoVideos.net may have a very busy fall season.

Posted At: August 19, 2006 @ 3:43 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A damaging tornado was reported in south Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire, England on Thursday, August 17.  Four people were injured and taken to a hospital in the town of Peterborough.  Tornadoes are quite common in England and are usually of the "cold-core" variety associated with strong occluded synoptic-scale cyclones.  The photos below are courtesy of the BBC and cre8tiveimages.com respectively.
                                                                   

Posted At: August 17, 2006 @ 4:12 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Based on recent trends in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and 850 mb wind anomalies (strength of the easterly Trade Winds) in the Tropical Pacific, a weak El Nino event may be initiating.  Typically, El Nino events begin in the eastern Pacific, with warm SSTs propagating westerward via the easterly Trade Winds.  However, El Nino events can also initiate in the central Pacific, with warm SSTs expanding depending on the presence of certain feedback mechanisms between the ocean and the atmosphere.  This current developing El Nino appears to be a combination of both, with warm SSTAs developing in the far eastern and central Tropical Pacific.  The positive anomalies in the eastern Pacific are likely a result of weak easterly Trade Winds during the mid summer (see second diagram below), because of decreased upwelling along the South American coast during this time. 

The TornadoVideos.net forecast is for the positive anomalies in the eastern Tropical Pacific to expand westward and intensify slightly, with the central Pacific warm SSTAs remaining steady state.  Despite a brief strengthening trend in the Trade Winds during late July, it appears that an overall trend towards weaker Trade Winds has occurred throughout the summer, and will likely continue through the fall and early winter.  Thus, a moderate El Nino will likely prevail in the Tropical Pacific through at least early winter, resulting in increased precipitation and cloudiness over the southwest and south-central U.S., with a higher probability of Nor' Easter winter storms along the East Coast due to the stronger sub-tropical jet stream.  Displayed below are the most recent sea surface temperature anomalies and Trade Wind anomalies (blue=stronger easterly winds, red=weaker easterly winds) centered on August 9, 2006.
       

    
Also, the warm SSTAs off the coast of Mexico (top figure) are likely contributing to the very active hurricane season they are experiencing in the eastern Pacific, with Hurricane Hector rapidly gaining strength at the time of this post.

Posted At: August 16, 2006 @ 5:04 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornado Glory is set to air on PBS in Los Angeles, CA during primetime (9 or 10 pm PDT) on August 30 on both PBS affiliates.   This is huge news for Ken Cole (director and producer), Reed, and Joel, since Los Angeles is a massive market of around 20 million potential viewers!

Also, Reed was recently featured in an article on Wisconsin Public Television, including an interview about Tornado Glory and storm chasing.  He was actually on a storm chase in South Dakota while being interviewed for that article.

View the article here

Posted At: August 16, 2006 @ 12:25 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

TornadoVideos.net will soon display live webcam images/streaming video during storm chases as part of our state-of-the-art live tracker.  Multiple webcams will be installed on our stormchasing vehicle, recording video of the storm from our vantage point and sending these images back to TornadoVideos.net in real-time for all weather enthusiasts to enjoy from the comfort of their own homes.  The goal of these live stormchasing webcams is to provide people the opportunity to experience the intensity of stormchasing on the internet, without having to suffer through gruelling hours on the road or spend insane amounts of money on gas.  We hope to have these webcams operational by the fall stormchasing season (September, October, November).  Stay tuned for more updates!        

Posted At: August 14, 2006 @ 12:10 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Saturday was another major bust in South Dakota, and a huge wast of incredible low-level wind shear.  Mid- to upper-level clouds prevented surface temperatures from rising above 90^oF, and surface-based storms failed to develop.  Still though, elevated storms fired in central SD producing photogenic shelf clouds and incredible lightning, but probably not worth the 40 hours of driving.  Here are a few photos from the chase:
                         

                         

Posted At: August 12, 2006 @ 12:04 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

After analyzing the 18z RUC model output (see below), our excitement about today's potential has sky-rocketed.  It's currently around 1 pm CDT, and we are driving towards a target in north-central/northeast SD.  As can be seen below, the RUC is forecasting a low-level jet from 21-00Z of 35 knots extending westward all the way to the cold front in the Dakotas!  This is dramatically different than the WRF forecast, which was still favorable for tornadoes!  The RUC also forecasts EXTREME instability with CAPEs exceeding 5000 J/kg.  If the storm mode is cellular and convective inhibition is eroded sufficiently, large tornadoes are likely with these parameters today in eastern SD.
                               

Posted At: August 11, 2006 @ 6:39 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Conditions appear to be coming together for a mini tornado outbreak in eastern South Dakota tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon and evening.   Substantial instability, an unseasonably strong low-level jet, insane moisture, and a potent mid-level jet streak will set the stage for explosive supercell development after 4 pm in central to eastern SD.  The presence of any outflow boundaries from overnight storms will also enhance the threat for tornadoes.   I left Norman at 6 pm this evening for a target in eastern South Dakota, once again without Joel (who is very close to having his profile removed from this site due to lack of stormchasing passion).   For those interested, the WRF forecast 0-1 and 0-3 km helicity, CAPE, CIN, and 500 mb wind for tomorrow afternoon/evening are displayed below.  The 0-1 km helicity values of 150-200 are sufficient for large tornadoes, especially with the presence of outflow boundaries.  Tomorrow could be the apocalypse.

0-1 km Helicity	0-3 km Helicity	850 mb Wind
CAPE	CIN	500 mb Wind

Stay tuned to the StormWatch player (upper right) for videotaped updates on our progress throughout the chase.

Posted At: August 11, 2006 @ 6:04 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Today (Friday) has been an active day across parts of Saskatchewan as expected.  Tornado warnings have been numerous across west-central SK with cold-core action, and across eastern Saskatchewan in the warm sector.  The radar image below shows the supercell that has been tornado warned.  It's unfortunate that I could not convince anyone to make the 27 hour drive, or we'd be driving through this tornado right now and rolling in a canola field.

                                   

Posted At: August 10, 2006 @ 3:36 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A textbook trough with embedded shortwave trough will traverse the Canadian Prairies on Friday, August 11, yielding favorable CAPE and shear for tornadic supercells over southeast Saskatchewan.  Substantially directional and speed shear will prevail where the mid-level jet streak and low-level jet coincide.  CAPE values of 3000 J/kg and greater will also develop by mid-late afternoon, setting the stage for potentially explosive supercell development.  I (Reed) attempted to find someone to accompany me on the 27 hour drive to my target area in Saskatchewan, but failed to do so.  I am very tempted to fly solo on this chase, but it could be physically impossible to endure a 27 hour drive followed by a 4-6 hour stormchase without sleep.  Updates will follow as this event unfolds, and if a tornado outbreak occurs, Joel's profile may be deleted from this site, as his stormchasing range is in question!
                                                                
As seen above, a 50 knot mid-level jet streak will be superimposed on a 30-40 knot low-level jet and 3000+ J/kg CAPE axis.  I should have left Wednesday.

An incredible supercell has been churning across the high plains of Alberta today (Thursday) for the last few hours.  Definitely a sign of things to come tomorrow.  It appears that additional supercells may form along a line south of this monster as well.  This storm also has split twice, confirming its supercell characteristics, and likely has baseball or larger hailstones.
                                
        
  

Posted At: August 9, 2006 @ 2:44 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Super Typhoon Saomai, a category 5 tropical cyclone by Atlantic Ocean standards, is tracking towards the China coast at 20 mph.  The powerful typhoon will make landfall just south of Shanghai around midnight EDT, with the highly populated city of Wenshou (2.5 million) directly in its path.  Saomai is packing sustained winds of 160 mph, and was located 150 nm west-southwest of Naha, Okinawa as of 4 pm EDT according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  Average wave heights in the vicinity of the storm were reported at 40 feet.  The last tropical cyclone of this intensity to make landfall on the U.S. coast was Andrew in 1992 (Katrina was a category 3 at landfall).
     

Posted At: August 7, 2006 @ 9:58 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornado Glory, an award-winning storm chasing documentary produced and directed by Ken Cole, will air nationally on PBS over the next few months.  This unique film documents the storm chasing adventures of Reed Timmer and Joel Taylor of TornadoVideos.net during the record-breaking 2003 tornado season, and features several close encounters (one within 200 yards) with violent tornadoes and damaging hail storms.  Ken filmed the entire documentary from an unprecedented perspective in extreme conditions, alongside Reed and Joel even at the most life-threatening moments.   Check out the details of the film at www.tornadoglory.com.