TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: June 27, 2008 @ 8:21 PM

Posted By: Matthew Van Every

Northern Oklahoma is going to get pounded by baseball hail tonight. Currently there are two supercells and the one north of Vance AFB is dominating!

From the National Weather Service in Norman:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND NORTHEASTERN ALFALFA COUNTIES...

AT 801 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF AMORITA...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 8 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE AMORITA...BYRON...MANCHESTER AND
  WAKITA.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY.
TORRENTIAL RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.



Here is some of Reeds video from another supercell!!!

Posted At: June 26, 2008 @ 11:37 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Based on the morning model runs, the environment in Nebraska and southern South Dakota will be characterized by 5000+ J/kg CAPE, but very marginal low- and deep-layer shear by late afternoon and evening.  The RUC forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 23 and 00z, respectively below tell the story.  While the chances for tornadoes are very small given this marginal shear, there is a chance that the instability could compensate, and enhanced vorticity along the outflow boundary could locally enhance the tornado threat.  Given the missing kinematic ingredients, we've decided to set this chase out and save funds for our planned 2+ week chase in Canada beginning in early July..



Check out these great photos shot by Chris Bray last night in Western Illinois from an intense mesoscale convective system (MCS):

Posted At: June 26, 2008 @ 2:32 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornadoes will be possible tomorrow in a marginally sheared environment, compensated by extreme instability, from central Nebraska northward into eastern South Dakota.  Overnight convection will generate an outflow boundary that will drift southward into northern NE by Thursday afternoon, which will create the necessary low-level convergence for storm initiation (possibly!).   We'll post in more detail after the morning model runs are available.. 

Posted At: June 25, 2008 @ 11:25 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Ken  Cole finally gave us the green light to add the Tornado Fury trailer to Youtube.  He's is still working on the final production, which should be released sometime during the off-season (hopefully).   Sorry we had to keep the low-res version at right for the last several months, but if you want to watch a higher-res version you can do so below (click on the video and select "watch in high quality")

Also, you may have noticed that Matt Van Every of TVN Stream 1 posted the previous blog entry.  Matt and I will be tag-teaming the blog posts from here on out, so that we can make multiple posts daily to keep everyone updated on severe weather events as they unfold in real-time.  We're also working on a click-to-enlarge option for the pictures uploaded to the blog to hasten our website download time.  In other news

Posted At: June 25, 2008 @ 3:00 AM

Posted By: Matthew Van Every

A slow moving MCS is dumping extreme rainfall along the Iowa Missouri border at this time.  NWS Doppler radar is estimating continuous rainfall rates of more than one inch per hour, with storm totals over 6 inches. This will cause moderate to major flooding across the region and flood and flash flood warnings are flying off the press. The Mississippi River is already at Major flood stage with multiple levee breaks. Also, the Mississippi River has been shut down to all traffic for the next few weeks. This will undoubtedly cause higher prices all across the market because goods will have to be shipped over land.

NWS River forecast map.

Simply put, this is not good. Stay tuned!

Posted At: June 23, 2008 @ 11:28 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

An intense shortwave trough embedded in strong zonal flow will traverse the Southern Canadian Prairies on Tuesday, providing the necessary upper support for supercells across the western Dakotas, and EXTREME southeastern SK/Southwest MB by afternoon/evening.  Instability will be quite strong across this area, despite relatively high temperature/dewpoint spreads, with CAPEs of 1500+ J/kg forecast to reside over the western Dakotas by Thursday evening.  A low-level jet of 30+ knots will intensify across the warm sector, resulting in sufficient low-level shear for tornaodes, especially across Western North Dakota into extreme Southeast Manitoba.  Unfortunately, we have to sit this chase out, since we're saving our funds for a 2+ week chase in Canada beginning in July. 


Check out the video below of a tornado in southern Ontario from yesterday.  Enhanced vorticity along a lake breeze front likely contributed to the development of this seemingly weak tornado.  Thanks to Dick McGowan for finding this video..

In other news... We just uploaded a new "about us" section for TVN, including biographies and storm chasing stats for all the streaming teams.  We have some MAJOR upgrades planned for the site over the next 6 months, and a new integrated live streaming/GPS tracking application for next year - including live chat with the streaming teams while they're in the field. 

Posted At: June 22, 2008 @ 1:53 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

An upstream trough over the North Pacific will result in more severe weather over the Northern Rocky Mountains and High Plains this afternoon/evening.  Moisture will still be relatively limited, so the tornado threat should be marginal - although an outbreak of land spouts is not out of the question.  TVN Stream 4 will be chasing today in the southwest SD/northeast WY area...


Looking at the long range models, it appears that deep moisture will not arrive in Canada until around July 1.  After that point, 60+ dewpoints should overspread most of the Canadian Prairies from Manitoba to as far west as eastern Alberta.  While this is a long way out, the long-range models are hinting at several strong storm systems moving east toward Canada from the North Pacific.  If these models verify, we may be heading north of the border for early July..  Subject to change of course.

Posted At: June 21, 2008 @ 1:04 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

TVN would like to congratulate Jon and Shawna Davies, both veteran chasers, who were married in Salina, KS on Friday with a textbook anvil and mammatus in the background!  Here is the related thread on StormTrack with pictures, etc:  http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=17187

Jon is very well-known amongst chasers and meteorologists as one of the best severe weather forecasters around, and his case studies are unparalleled.  Jon and Shawna recently published a book about storm chasing, which can be ordered at http://onthetrailoftwisters.com/. 

Dick McGowan attended the wedding, and you'll see from his pictures below that he is not only a talented severe weather photographer, but also holds his own at weddings!
 

 

In other news...it looks like we'll be heading to northern ND/southern Manitoba for a potential severe weather event on Monday...  If moisture can return there could be a few tubes..

Posted At: June 18, 2008 @ 10:59 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Supercells will be likely today from Southeast Montana southward to Eastern New Mexico as strong instability develops by late afternoon.  The most favorable areas for tornadoes will be across western Nebraska southward to East-central Colorado/West Kansas, where instability will be maximized and low-level shear will be barely sufficient.  As is typically the case with northwesterly flow events, any discrete supercells that initially form will likely congeal rapidly into an mesoscale convective system (MCS).  TVN Stream 4 (Extreme Tornado Tours) with Dave Holder and John Harris will be streaming live today from the CO/KS border.

Severe storms will also be possible ahead of a cold front moving east across the central/eastern Canadian Prairies.  While low-level shear will be lacking, or east of the instability axis, supercells will be possible given sufficient deep-layer shear and instability - especially across Eastern SK/Western MB.  Once the deep moisture makes it north of the Border TVN will be migrating in the direction of Canada!

Posted At: June 17, 2008 @ 10:32 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out these pictures taken by Oliver of Klipsi.com while chasing with John Harris and Dave Holder of TVN Stream 4...  Olivier travels the world photographing eclipses, and will be heading to the North Pole after storm season for an eclipse chase.  He's also a veteran chaser of 8 years...

Posted At: June 16, 2008 @ 9:40 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

There will be an isolated tornado threat today over extreme Northwest Oklahoma, Southwest Kansas, and the Northeast Texas Panhandle, where the presence of extreme instability and sufficient low-level shear is forecast to develop late this afternoon.  Also, outflow boundaries from overnight convection are everywhere, so this could act to locally enhance the tornado threat...  Here are some selected forecast maps from the morning WRF run for CAPE and 850 mb flow:

Posted At: June 15, 2008 @ 9:35 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A classic northwesterly flow event will unfold across the Great Plains to the Great Lakes Region today, with a widespread wind event expected after quick evolution from supercells to an MCS.  There will be a narrow opportunity for supercells and tornadoes in eastern Kansas into Missouri before the storms congeal with 4-5000 J/kg CAPE and 150+ helicity, but cell mergers should preclude any significant tornado threat.  TVN will be heading out for Emporia, KS in the next hour or so...  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: June 14, 2008 @ 11:45 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out this video of the Manhattan tornado from Dick McGowan and Jordan Wrecke, from just south of town looking north.  It appears that the power flashes are illuminating the backside of a large cone tornado.  The frame captures below with contrast enhanced show the funnel much more clearly...

Posted At: June 13, 2008 @ 3:14 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

According to a damage survey conducted by NWS Topeka, the Manhattan, KS tornado on Thursday night was rated an EF-4 with a path-width exceeding 1/4 mile wide at times!  This was the same supercell that produced a much weaker tornado just to the south of Salina, KS earlier in the evening.  A separate supercell (I believe) produced an EF-3 tornado that tore through Chapman, KS just northwest of Junction City, KS.  Damage survey details as well as pictures can be found at the links below.  Dick McGowan captured video of the tornado as it was moving through Manhattan, so hopefully we'll have his video up soon.  Dick was responsible for the tornado report as it was heading toward the Manhattan area...

Public Information Statement (Manhattan and Chapman, KS tornadoes):
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=top&storyid=15352&source=0

Chapman, KS tornado:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=top&storyid=15324&source=0

Manhattan, KS tornado:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=top&storyid=15350&source=0

Below is the tornado track of the Manhattan EF-4 tornado from the NWS Topeka survey:

Posted At: June 12, 2008 @ 2:23 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

51 tornadoes have been reported yesterday from Minnesota south to Kansas with mainly HP supercells and rain-wrapped circulations.  Sadly, a tornado tore through a western Iowa boy scout camp killing 4 and injuring 40..  A tornado also touched down in Manhattan, KS after dark, destroying several structures including severe damage to the KSU campus.  I've heard reports that the damage looks like EF2, but an official survey will likely take place tomorrow.   This same storm produced a tornado that moved just south of Salina, KS across I-35, causing damage to a nursing home. 

TVN Stream 1 has pictures of a cone funnel about to touch down before becoming wrapped in rain - I'll post these tomorrow before the chase in S KS.  We just drove in circles western Iowa for 8 hours!

Posted At: June 11, 2008 @ 12:03 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A tornado outbreak is possible today across the Mid-Missouri River Valley, as incredible low-level shear is forecast to materialize east of the cold front plowing across the Central Plains.  The orientation of the cold front is much more favorable across Northeast NE/Northwest IA and northward, so we're targeting the northern end of the moderate risk area where supercells will move off the boundary.  Further south, where the front is oriented more west to east, storm mergers will be more common which could limit the tornado threat.  The live streams will be going strong today, so be sure to check out the tracker page.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: June 10, 2008 @ 6:40 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A tornado watch has been issued for western Kansas and extreme northwest Oklahoma for this evening, but it appears that the storms are struggling with the limited moisture east of the dryline.  We're currently near Wichita closely monitoring radar trends to see if we should fly west, but right now, we think that the storms will have trouble making it to the moisture axis.  We're currently meandering northward to be in position along the Missouri River further north for tomorrow!

Posted At: June 10, 2008 @ 11:41 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out this video of TVN chopping down a tree that was heavily damaged from the December 2007 ice storm.  This is an example of how we kill time in between storm chases!

We'll be departing in a few hours for a target of Northwest Iowa/Southwest Minnesota for tomorrow.  The north-south orientation of the front is much more favorable for storms to remain discrete!  I'll be posting in detail about tomorrow's setup after the evening models are available.  Stay tuned for updates!

Posted At: June 8, 2008 @ 11:54 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out this video from storm chaser Andrew Pritchard of the large tornadoes that tore through Northern Illinois yesterday afternoon/evening!  Andrew intercepted three wedges, with one attaining nearly 1 mile in width...  He said that when one tornado was roping out, a new tornado would form with the new circulation in a matter of seconds.  Thankfully, no fatalities have been reported from yesterday's tornadoes, which is a miracle considering the population density...

We're about to head out to Northwest OK in the next hour, but I doubt we'll see anything like Andrew saw yesterday. 

Posted At: June 7, 2008 @ 6:29 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A very dangerous and life threatening situation is ongoing in the Chicago area as of 6:30 pm CDT, with a confirmed large tornado heading straight for the east side of town!  Residents in the Chicago area should be taking cover immediately as this is a confirmed, damaging tornado heading for populated areas.  Here is the radar image from just before 6:30 pm CDT as a large tornado was confirmed.  Stay tuned for updates as this potentially deadly situation unfolds.

Posted At: June 7, 2008 @ 11:58 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Check out last night's 4 km WRF run of forecast radar reflectivity from 18z to 02z this afternoon/evening in Iowa.  One important feature to note is the misplacement of the evolution of overnight convection originating in Minnesota.  Last night's WRF forecast the MCS to surge south into northwest Iowa by early afternoon.  Looking at regional radar, the MCS moved much further east into southeast MN/northeast IA.  Thus, the evolution of this afternoon's convection in Iowa will likely evolve differently then the 4 km WRF given the further east position of the outflow boundary.  Still though, the 4 km WRF is a useful tool for forecasting storm mode..  Last night's run is hinting at a rapid evolution to a squall line, which would minimize the tornado threat.  It will be interesting to see how this setup pans out!

Posted At: June 7, 2008 @ 10:19 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center from the Great Lakes Region southwest to Nebraska, for the risk of widespread damaging wind, massive hail, and isolated tornadoes.  A strong low-level jet and sufficient instability will set the stage for supercells, especially across the western end of the moderate risk area.  TVN Stream 3 will be chasing this event with a target of western Iowa, so stay tuned to the live tracker for some insane footage!

Posted At: June 5, 2008 @ 7:43 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

This morning, we thought today would be one of the most significant tornado outbreaks we've ever chased...  After the fact, it didn't even come close!  With a 60+ knot LLJ and very high instability over a large area from MN to TX, it appeared that 50+ tornadoes was not out of the question.  Thankfully for the residents of the Plains, a surprisingly strong cap, early arrival of the forcing, and wind shear that did not quite materialize prevented strong, long-track tornadoes from forming.  We'll definitely learn from this event!!

Posted At: June 5, 2008 @ 10:34 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

I have not seen a setup like today in a very long time.  A 60-80 knot low-level jet, 3000+ J/kg CAPE across the entire warm sector, and 40 knots of wind shear in the lowest kilometer will create a perfect environment for strong, long-track tornadoes from southern MN south to Northwest Texas.  The hodographs look absolutely perfect, rivaling May 4, 8, 2003, when significant tornado outbreaks struck the Great Plains.  Not surprisingly, the SPC has issued a high risk across the entire warm sector from MN south to KS, and will likely be extended southward from there.  This is a very dangerous situation for the residents within the risk area outlined below.  If you are a resident of this area, stay tuned to local media for watches and warnings.  We'll have the live streams going strong, and hopefully we'll be working for a successful tornado probe deployment!  All who are chasing today be safe and good luck. 

Posted At: June 4, 2008 @ 11:58 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

An outbreak of severe weather will occur today across northern Kansas into Nebraska, with large and strong straight-line winds a guarantee.  The threat of tornadoes will be dependent on the evolution of the low-level jet near and after 7:00 pm this evening.  The RUC (shown below) shows the 850 mb flow increasing from 15-20 knots to 30+ knots along I-70 in Kansas.  If a storm can develop and remain discrete in this environment, it will have a chance of producing strong tornadoes.  If the LLJ can evolve faster, stronger, and further north than forecast by the RUC, WRF, and GFS, then the tornado threat will be more substantial and widespread.  We'll be streaming live video to the website beginning this afternoon, so stay tuned to the tracker as this severe weather event unfolds!

Posted At: June 2, 2008 @ 1:48 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

 

This week looks VERY active, so hopefully we'll have some more probe video and now wind measurements to share with you by next weekend..