NewsStrong line of storms in OK this morning!
Posted At: May 30, 2007 @ 6:13 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong squall line/bow echo moved through Norman, OK this morning, with several severe thunderstorm warnings issued in central/southern OK. We only experienced ~40 mph winds here in Norman, but we were located in a relatively weak part of the line. Shown here is the radar image from about 15 minutes after the line moved through! The most intense winds with this mesoscale convective system (MCS) would be located near the leading edge of the apex of the bow-shaped echo. 60 mph winds were just reported in Wellston, OK as I type this post!
Tornadoes possible in SD/ND today
Posted At: May 28, 2007 @ 11:26 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Supercells will likely initiate along a slow-moving cold front in central SD and ND today, within an environment of extreme CAPE and adequate wind shear for tornadoes. The RUC forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 7 pm CDT this evening are displayed below:
Given the orientation of the cold front (SSW to NNE), a quick evolution to an MCS is expected today given cell mergers and strong linear forcing. However, tornadic supercells will be likely during the first few hours after initiation. As seen above, a 35-40 kt diurnal low-level jet will be in place, as well as extreme CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg along and east of the cold front. The cap (inidcated by hatched regions in upper right panel) will be rather strong from SD southward, indicating a higher likelihood of linear, forced convection there. The weaker cap in ND will increase the chances for supercells there. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this region, with a chance for tornadoes mentioned.
Given the orientation of the cold front (SSW to NNE), a quick evolution to an MCS is expected today given cell mergers and strong linear forcing. However, tornadic supercells will be likely during the first few hours after initiation. As seen above, a 35-40 kt diurnal low-level jet will be in place, as well as extreme CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg along and east of the cold front. The cap (inidcated by hatched regions in upper right panel) will be rather strong from SD southward, indicating a higher likelihood of linear, forced convection there. The weaker cap in ND will increase the chances for supercells there. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this region, with a chance for tornadoes mentioned.
Video from Hutchinson Co., TX on May 23, 2007
Posted At: May 24, 2007 @ 7:02 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Strong tornadoes likely in the Texas panhandle
Posted At: May 23, 2007 @ 2:38 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Reed and I are expecting the possibility for significant tornadoes in the northeast Texas panhandle later this afternoon and evening. Highest threat appears to be east of Amarillo to Guymon, OK and north of I-40. CAPES are expected to be around 3000 j/kg with excellent speed and directional sheer with the wind fields by this evening. 850 mb winds will be around 40 knts by 8 to 9 pm CDT across much of the area. At 2:30 pm we are heading west out of OKC heading towards an initial target of Pampa, TX. Stay tuned for further details. - Joel
Video from Graham County, KS today!
Posted At: May 22, 2007 @ 9:41 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Here is the video from around 6:00-6:30 pm from Graham County, KS...we got stuck in the mud right after the tornado and were forced to pull some evasive maneuvers! Tornado outbreak likely tomorrow.
Possible tornadoes in KS today
Posted At: May 22, 2007 @ 10:24 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
If a storm can develop south of the cold front along the dryline in KS == MASS CHAOS!
ANOTHER MEXICAN TORNADO??
Posted At: May 21, 2007 @ 6:50 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Yet another supercell has exploded off the mountains in extreme northeast Mexico west of Del Rio, and has shown a consistent, very strong couplet on radar. This location has likely experienced a record number of tornadoes this year...it's disappointing we can't even approximate how many tornadoes they've had. Here is the radar image from Del Rio from around 6:45 pm CDT. Note the INTENSE couplet in the second image!
Tornadoes possible in the TX Panhandle today
Posted At: May 21, 2007 @ 1:28 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Despite weak mid-upper flow, supercells and tornadoes are still possible in the TX Panhandle later this afternoon and evening given a strong diurnal low-level jet, moderate instability, and a tight dryline. The 500 mb flow and 0-3 km helicity as forecast by the WRF model for 7 pm CDT this evening are shown below:
As seen above, 25-30 kts out of the WNW will be present over the TX Panhandle as of 7 pm CDT Monday evening, which will yield more than sufficient shear for supercells given SSE surface flow. A low-level jet of 30-40 kts will prevail just above the surface out of the due south, with 700 mb flow out of the due west at around 30 kts. This substantial turning will yield extreme 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 over this region (above right). The high-res WRF model shows storms initiating from Canada all the way to Mexico by tomorrow evening, with the storms in TX appearing to be discrete supercells.
Based on this information, the SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms for the entire western Great Plains, with a tornado threat in the TX Panhandle where the storm mode will likely be discrete in nature and the low-level shear maximized. We will definitely be chasing this event, so stay tuned to the GPS tracker and to the blog for more updates!
As seen above, 25-30 kts out of the WNW will be present over the TX Panhandle as of 7 pm CDT Monday evening, which will yield more than sufficient shear for supercells given SSE surface flow. A low-level jet of 30-40 kts will prevail just above the surface out of the due south, with 700 mb flow out of the due west at around 30 kts. This substantial turning will yield extreme 0-3 km helicity values of 200-300 m2/s2 over this region (above right). The high-res WRF model shows storms initiating from Canada all the way to Mexico by tomorrow evening, with the storms in TX appearing to be discrete supercells.
Based on this information, the SPC has issued a slight risk for severe storms for the entire western Great Plains, with a tornado threat in the TX Panhandle where the storm mode will likely be discrete in nature and the low-level shear maximized. We will definitely be chasing this event, so stay tuned to the GPS tracker and to the blog for more updates!
A story from a Greensburg tornado survivor...
Posted At: May 20, 2007 @ 12:56 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Here is an insane story from a truck driver who survived the Greensburg tornado! He gave me permission to post it on the blog:
I was in Greensburg, ks on may the 4th, and untill I seen this website it is the first time I got to look at the tornado that took out greensburg. I am a truck driver. I was passing through Greensburg when my student woke me up and told me he heard there was a tornado watch in the area. I told him to pull over and we will see what happens explaining to him that I am from southern Oklahoma and we have tornado watches about every 5 mins, and it was nothing to worry about. That I would be worried when we heard the tornado sirens go off, he then rolled down the window and I could hear them. We got out of the truck and took shelter in a gas station across the street. well we stood outside watching the hail start comming down. The attendant left and locked the door behind him. Leaving about 10 of us outside of the station. Someone tried the door anyway and it opend. We went inside to get out of the rain/hail. We started looking for a safe place to be at if the tornado hit the store. We decided on the cooler would be the best place not thinking of the pressure that would build up inside it and all the glass that was around us inside there. Then it was time to react as the lights went out. We noticed the windows start moving and the noise I could feel my ears as if they wanted to pop. We ran into the cooler and got down on our knees where my student and I started praying as the tornado ripped though the area. Then it was quiet and my student who was from FL. started to get up when I pushed him back down and told him to stay there it wasn't over yet and it was about it hit again, he looked at me and said "what?" and then we passed though the eye of the tornado. It was hitting us again this time taking off the roof, and taking out the wall next to us. I thank all the storm chasers out there for what they do. To give us a early warning, yall do a great job thanks. The entire ordel prolly only lasted 30 seconds inside that cooler but it must have been the longest 30 seconds of my life as I was sure it was about to end. Thanks again guys and gals :) I wanted to post this on your website but couldn't find a place to do it.
Brad
Greensburg, ks tornado survivor
Greensburg, ks tornado survivor
Montana under the gun once again!
Posted At: May 19, 2007 @ 4:53 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
High-based supercells are expected to develop once again today over central Montana, with strong instability and ample deep-layer shear for rotating storms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for this region:
As seen in the composite radar image above, storms are beginning to initiate over the western area of the watch box (where wind shear and instability are marginal for supercells) and south of Billings (where supercells are more likely). The RUC analysis of the 0-1 km energy helicity index at 3 pm MDT is shown below. The EHI is a composite index that factors in both 0-1 km CAPE (low-level instability) and 0-1 km helicity (low-level shear). Very generally, 0-1 EHI values of ~ 2 or higher support tornadoes, but the cloud bases in this region will be very high, with temperatures in the 80s and mixed-out dewpoints in the low 50s. These large dewpoint spreads not only result in high cloud bases, but also maximize evaporational cooling below the storm which favors a quick transition to outflow-dominant storms. However, if supercells can develop and continue into the evening, when surface temperatures begin to cool and dewpoints rise, there is a chance of isolated tornadoes.
Monday and Tuesday still look interesting for a potential severe weather outbreak over the Central and Northern Plains. Our main concern right now is that the low-level jet will be east of where the storms develop, but this usually seems to be the case in model forecasts of Northern Plains events where a cold front is involved. Stay tuned for more updates!
As seen in the composite radar image above, storms are beginning to initiate over the western area of the watch box (where wind shear and instability are marginal for supercells) and south of Billings (where supercells are more likely). The RUC analysis of the 0-1 km energy helicity index at 3 pm MDT is shown below. The EHI is a composite index that factors in both 0-1 km CAPE (low-level instability) and 0-1 km helicity (low-level shear). Very generally, 0-1 EHI values of ~ 2 or higher support tornadoes, but the cloud bases in this region will be very high, with temperatures in the 80s and mixed-out dewpoints in the low 50s. These large dewpoint spreads not only result in high cloud bases, but also maximize evaporational cooling below the storm which favors a quick transition to outflow-dominant storms. However, if supercells can develop and continue into the evening, when surface temperatures begin to cool and dewpoints rise, there is a chance of isolated tornadoes.
Monday and Tuesday still look interesting for a potential severe weather outbreak over the Central and Northern Plains. Our main concern right now is that the low-level jet will be east of where the storms develop, but this usually seems to be the case in model forecasts of Northern Plains events where a cold front is involved. Stay tuned for more updates!
Supercells ongoing in ND/MN!
Posted At: May 18, 2007 @ 8:33 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Scattered supercells developed today in central/eastern ND and also southern Manitoba, with the action spreading into MN overnight. One tornado was reported at 6:52 pm CDT in Griggs Co., ND by a trained spotter. This tornado was likely weak and brief given that only one report was received, and the weak low-level shear values. Here is the radar image from Fargo, ND as of 8:30 pm CDT.
May 22 looking VERY interesting!
Posted At: May 18, 2007 @ 2:59 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
While it's likely not yet worth discussing, I can't handle posting about the potential for Tuesday, May 22, especially given the boring weather pattern we are currently experiencing. Here are the 500 mb and 850 mb GFS forecasts for 7 pm on Tuesday, with the region of severe weather risk highlighted in blue.
As seen above, a 40+ kt diurnal low-level jet (bottom panel) is forecast to be in place from Oklahoma north to southwest Ontario, with more than sufficient upper-level flow for supercells. The models have been consistent in forecasting a more amplified trough, extending much further south with each consecutive run. If the above model run verifies, the region from northeast KS to southwest Ontario could be in for a major tornado outbreak. Stay tuned for more updates!
As seen above, a 40+ kt diurnal low-level jet (bottom panel) is forecast to be in place from Oklahoma north to southwest Ontario, with more than sufficient upper-level flow for supercells. The models have been consistent in forecasting a more amplified trough, extending much further south with each consecutive run. If the above model run verifies, the region from northeast KS to southwest Ontario could be in for a major tornado outbreak. Stay tuned for more updates!
Severe weather possible in the Northern Plains early next week!
Posted At: May 17, 2007 @ 11:47 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A shortwave trough will propagate across the Northern Plains this Sunday - Tuesday, providing the upper support for a few potential severe weather outbreaks from Montana (Sunday) through Minnesota (Tuesday). Right now, it appears Monday will provide the highest chance for tornadoes across the Dakotas. Here are some GFS forecast parameters for Monday afternoon.
The dewpoints shown in the lower left appear to be largely evapotranspirated, meaning the moisture originates from existing plants rather than being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Evapotranspirated moisture is often very shallow, and can easily be mixed out during the afternoon. Given adequate wind shear for supercells and tornadoes, it appears right now that moisture could be the only limiting factor. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Central/Northern Plains in their experimental 4-8 day severe outlook. Stay tuned for more updates.
The dewpoints shown in the lower left appear to be largely evapotranspirated, meaning the moisture originates from existing plants rather than being advected northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Evapotranspirated moisture is often very shallow, and can easily be mixed out during the afternoon. Given adequate wind shear for supercells and tornadoes, it appears right now that moisture could be the only limiting factor. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the Central/Northern Plains in their experimental 4-8 day severe outlook. Stay tuned for more updates.
Using Level II radar data to estimate the Greensburg tornado tracks
Posted At: May 16, 2007 @ 10:34 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Here is the estimated tornado damage path using Level II radar data. Basically, radial velocity is used to estimate areas of extreme rotation and divergence. While this estimation is not nearly perfect, it is very useful in delineating the potential damage path when damage wasn't produced. Also, it appears from this data that the tornado produced after the Greensburg EF-5 may have been stronger and larger, but since it thankfully did not hit any structures was rated an EF-3.
We are still waiting on the damage surveys for the Ellis Co., OK tornado on May 4 and the southwest/central KS tornadoes on May 5...these will be posted as soon as they're released.
May 21-23 looks interesting for the central/northern Plains for a tornado event...Stay tuned!
We are still waiting on the damage surveys for the Ellis Co., OK tornado on May 4 and the southwest/central KS tornadoes on May 5...these will be posted as soon as they're released.
May 21-23 looks interesting for the central/northern Plains for a tornado event...Stay tuned!
May 4, 2007 tornado video to be used for research on helical suction vortices!
Posted At: May 15, 2007 @ 3:04 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A research scientist at the University of Oklahoma will be using our May 4, 2007 Ellis Co., OK tornado video for a research project on helical suction vortices within tornadoes. Since we were close to this tornado, we could see several mini-vortices rotating rapidly within the tornado on numerous occasions. Here are some frame captures of these mini-suction vortices.
Analysis of Greensburg, KS tornado environment
Posted At: May 13, 2007 @ 11:40 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Here is a brief model/observational analysis of the Greensburg, KS tornado environment by John Davies, who produces exceptional reports for nearly all significant tornado events. As expected, the instability/shear indices matched the analogue violent tornado cases very closely, but with higher instability.
http://members.cox.net/jondavies6/050407greensburg/050407greensburg.htm
An issue I have with this study is the time focus of the shear/instability analysis. The shear/CAPE plots for only 00z (7pm CDT) were discussed (except for the two erroneous RUC analysis plots from later in the evening), and used for comparison with historical violent tornado cases. However, the rapid intensification of the low-level jet after 00z likely played a substantial role in the development of violent tornadoes with this storm. The WRF forecast the large 0-1 km helicity values to be confined to the warm front in central KS at 00z (as displayed in John Davies' report), however, substantial low-level shear was also likely present to the south of the warm front and east of the dryline extending into northwest OK after 00z as the nocturnal low-level jet intensified. In my opinion, the role of the nocturnal low-level jet in producing the first EF-5 tornado did not receive enough attention in this analysis.
http://members.cox.net/jondavies6/050407greensburg/050407greensburg.htm
An issue I have with this study is the time focus of the shear/instability analysis. The shear/CAPE plots for only 00z (7pm CDT) were discussed (except for the two erroneous RUC analysis plots from later in the evening), and used for comparison with historical violent tornado cases. However, the rapid intensification of the low-level jet after 00z likely played a substantial role in the development of violent tornadoes with this storm. The WRF forecast the large 0-1 km helicity values to be confined to the warm front in central KS at 00z (as displayed in John Davies' report), however, substantial low-level shear was also likely present to the south of the warm front and east of the dryline extending into northwest OK after 00z as the nocturnal low-level jet intensified. In my opinion, the role of the nocturnal low-level jet in producing the first EF-5 tornado did not receive enough attention in this analysis.
Supercells possible again today in Montana
Posted At: May 13, 2007 @ 12:55 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong shortwave trough will move across western Montana today, with winds backing to an ENE direction across eastern MT in response to the associated pressure falls to the lee of the Rocky Mountains. A W-E oriented tongue of marginal instability will develop along and north of the WY/MT state line, with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. The RUC forecast 500 mb flow and CAPE for later this evening are shown above. Based on the RUC forecast, the low-level shear is very marginal for tornadoes, with 700 mb flow only expected to be around 15 knots. However, with ENE surface winds, substantial directional shear will be in place, so an isolated small tornado cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this area, with 5% tornado probabilities over southeast MT where instability will be maximized. Stay tuned for updates!
TornadoVideos.net on The Weather Channel
Posted At: May 12, 2007 @ 9:31 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Television
Here is a link to our interview on The Weather Channel:
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6606&collection=videocoll26&from=newslinker
MAJOR updates are coming soon...Stay tuned!!
http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=6606&collection=videocoll26&from=newslinker
MAJOR updates are coming soon...Stay tuned!!
Severe weather/tornadoes possible in MT today!
Posted At: May 12, 2007 @ 6:51 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The Storm Prediction Center issued a severe thunderstorm watch for central Montana this afternoon/evening until 10 pm MDT. Severe storms have developed W to E across the center of the watch, but these storms have not shown signs of rotation.
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While extreme instability and low-level wind shear are in place east of Billings, the parameters are marginal at best for tornadoes in the watch area above. If storms can develop in the region between Glasgow and Billings, intense supercells and tornadoes would be likely. The CAPE and 0-1 km helicity values over this region are shown below (RUC analysis for 23z).
Here is the radar image from Glasgow, MT at around 5:30 MDT, showing the severe storms ongoing in the center of the watch area, as well as a monster supercell in southern Saskatchewan. The Canadian NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for that cell. Dewpoints are in the 40s in the surrounding environment of that storm.
While extreme instability and low-level wind shear are in place east of Billings, the parameters are marginal at best for tornadoes in the watch area above. If storms can develop in the region between Glasgow and Billings, intense supercells and tornadoes would be likely. The CAPE and 0-1 km helicity values over this region are shown below (RUC analysis for 23z).
Here is the radar image from Glasgow, MT at around 5:30 MDT, showing the severe storms ongoing in the center of the watch area, as well as a monster supercell in southern Saskatchewan. The Canadian NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for that cell. Dewpoints are in the 40s in the surrounding environment of that storm.
The last F-5 tornado -- Our video from an overpass
Posted At: May 11, 2007 @ 12:47 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
We've decided to finally release our video of the May 3, 1999 Moore, OK tornado, the last F-5 to be documented anywhere in the world. This tornado event marked the beginning of storm chasing for TornadoVideos.net, and should be taken as an example of how NOT TO CHASE!!
Subtropical Storm Andrea dissipating!
Posted At: May 10, 2007 @ 12:22 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Subtropical Storm Andrea was producing 40 knot sustained winds as of late Wednesday evening, and was drifting slowly northeastward. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the southeast Geogria/northeast Florida Coastline. Here is the water vapor look of Andrea as of 11:15 pm CDT Wednesday.
Here is the 11:00 EDT discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
Here is the 11:00 EDT discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007
ANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS
INDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A
LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A
SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED
BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND
RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
Tornado Watch in South Texas!
Posted At: May 9, 2007 @ 6:55 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As of 6:45 pm, CDT, a line of thunderstorms was moving east across South Texas just north of Del Rio to around Abilene, TX. The Del Rio radar image at that time is shown below:
Three tornadoes have been reported in Texas, including one near Throckmorton, TX that was produced by a very small supercell. However, it appears the risk for significant tornadoes is VERY low across the watch region above, because of the very weak (<20 kts) flow in low-mid levels. Here is the VAD from Del Rio at 6:45 pm CDT, showing the vertical wind profile with time.
Respite expected for the southern Plains -- Sweetwater, OK tornado rated EF-3
Posted At: May 9, 2007 @ 12:29 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The tornado threat appears to be very low today over southwest TX, given the lack of low-level shear and the convective debris present there. Still though, there is a chance for supercells producing very large hail delineated above in the slight risk. The great news is that the western OK/western, central KS area will have a break in severe weather for at least a week, based on the extended model forecasts.
SWEETWATER, OK TORNADO ON MAY 5 RATED EF-3:
Here is the NWS survey:
SWEETWATER, OK TORNADO ON MAY 5 RATED EF-3:
Here is the NWS survey:
HERE ARE THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THAT SURVEY.
--- SWEETWATER TORNADO ---
- ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) SCALE RATING -- EF3
- PATH LENGTH -- APPROX. 7.5 MILES
- PATH WIDTH -- AVERAGE AROUND 100-150 YARDS
THE TORNADO APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED 1/2 MILE NORTH OF E1130 ROAD
AND ALONG HIGHWAY 30 IN NORTHERN BECKHAM COUNTY...ABOUT 2 1/2 MILES
SOUTH OF SWEETWATER. THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF A TORNADO WAS DAMAGE TO
AN OUTBUILDING AT A GAS FACILITY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY...
ALONG WITH SOME TREE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTH ALONG AND
PARELLEL TO HIGHWAY 30...DAMAGING TREES...HOMES AND SOME
OUTBUILDINGS. DAMAGE IN THIS AREA WAS MAINLY IN THE EF0 RANGE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED WHEN THE TORNADO STRUCK THE
SWEETWATER SCHOOL. AT THIS LOCATION...THE TORNADO IS ESTIMATED TO
HAVE BEEN 100-150 YARDS WIDE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS TO A
METAL BUILDING THAT WAS THE SCHOOL`S MULTI-PURPOSE BUILDING...WHICH
WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DESTROYED. THE ANCHORING THAT CONNECTED THE
BUILDING TO THE FOUNDATION APPEARED TO HAVE FAILED...ALLOWING ALL
BUT THE MOST NORTHERN SECTION OF THE BUILDING TO COLLAPSE. A SMALL
BUILDING THAT CONNECTED THIS BUILDING WITH THE SCHOOL`S GYMNASIUM
SUFFERED ONLY SLIGHT DAMAGE. THE GYMNASIUM...AT THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE SCHOOL...SUFFERED SUBSTANTIAL ROOF DAMAGE...WHICH APPEARED TO
HAVE CAUSED THE WEST MASONRY WALL OF THE SCHOOL TO COLLAPSE OUTWARD.
OTHER DAMAGE ON THE SCHOOL PROPERTY CONSISTED OF A SMALL STORAGE
BUILDING OF SIMILAR CONSTRUCTION AS THE MULTI-PURPOSE BUILDING BEING
COMPLETELY DESTROYED...A BUS BARN/GARAGE STRUCTURE SUFFERING DAMAGE
WHEN THE LARGE GARAGE DOORS BLEW INWARD...AND DAMAGE TO
TREES...POWER LINES AND FENCES.
A PICK UP TRUCK...WHICH HAD BEEN PARKED IN THE SCHOOL`S PARKING
LOT...WAS ROLLED/TOSSED APPROXIMATELY 100 YARDS TO THE NORTH. A
HORSE TRAILER THAT HAD BEEN NEAR THE STORAGE BUILDING AT THE
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE SCHOOL PROPERTY WAS FOUND MORE THAN ONE
QUARTER MILE AWAY IN A FIELD.
JUST NORTH OF THE SCHOOL...A HOME WAS DAMAGED...AND AN OIL STORAGE
FACILITY WAS ALSO HIT. AN OIL TANK FROM THIS LOCATION WAS FOUND
APPROXIMATELY 500 YARDS AWAY.
THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DAMAGE AS IT MOVED NORTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 30 INTO SWEETWATER. THE CHURCH AND POST OFFICE WERE
DAMAGED...AS WERE SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS AND BUSINESSES.
DAMAGE CONTINUED FOR APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES NORTH OF SWEETWATER...
WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE NOTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGHWAY
30...AND NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWNED.
THE TORNADO APPEARED TO HAVE DISSIPATED JUST SOUTH OF E1040 ROAD IN
SOUTHERN ROGER MILLS COUNTY.
Pictures of the Greensburg F-5 -- and -- Our enhanced video from May 5, 2007
Posted At: May 8, 2007 @ 4:25 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Here are some video frame captures of the Greensburg, KS EF-5 taken by our friends Don Guiliano and Dave Demko. Note the INCREDIBLE structure in the second picture!
Shown below is our video from the May 5, 2007 tornado in Stafford County, KS, west of St. John. I enhanced the brightness/contrast slightly such that it appears more like it did in real life. This is a VERY violent tornado...and thankfully it did not hit a populated area. We crossed a very wide damage path from the previous day's tornadoes several times before intercepting this ~1/4 mile wide tornado.
Shown below is our video from the May 5, 2007 tornado in Stafford County, KS, west of St. John. I enhanced the brightness/contrast slightly such that it appears more like it did in real life. This is a VERY violent tornado...and thankfully it did not hit a populated area. We crossed a very wide damage path from the previous day's tornadoes several times before intercepting this ~1/4 mile wide tornado.
Significant tornado event expected again today!
Posted At: May 6, 2007 @ 10:41 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Another round of strong tornadoes is expected again today over western OK, adding to an already record-breaking weekend for severe weather. We spent the night in Alva, OK, and our now heading towards Arnet, OK to await storm initiation.
Given the insane amount of traffic we've had on the website, we're having some issues that will be resolved tomorrow. Our youtube video has had over 200,000 views, and our hosting company cannot handle the mass traffic. Jason is working VERY hard to keep the website working properly, but we cannot resolve the problem completely until tomorrow.
As I'm typing this, we're getting pounded by heavy rain and storms north of an outflow boundary..We expect storms to become surface based with an increasing potential for tornadoes as time goes on. Stay tuned for more updates!
Video from huge wedge in KS!
Posted At: May 6, 2007 @ 12:54 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Joel and I shot this video of a huge wedge in Stafford Co., KS at around 8:00 pm. The tornado crossed the road within a 1/4 mile of our position. It appeared EXTREMELY violent. 
As of late this evening, over 80 tornadoes have been reported in OK, KS and NE! This has been one of the most significant tornado outbreaks in several years. Sadly, it appears that several homes were damaged and people have lost their lives. Sweetwater and Sharon, OK sustained direct hits, along with a few towns in KS. Stay tuned for updates!
Website Issues
Posted At: May 5, 2007 @ 10:02 PM
Posted By: Jason Fill
Related Categories: Website
Due to the outrageous amount of traffic we have been receiving today our site has been having some server issues. The hosting company we use has limited our number of simultaneous connections b/c our site was producing too high of load for the server. Because of this limit, you might see some "Service Unavailable" pages. If you refresh the page once or twice this message should disappear.
Sorry for the issues. We will be moving to a new dedicated server in the next day or 2.
Jason
Reed on CNN
Posted At: May 5, 2007 @ 2:44 PM
Posted By: Jason Fill
Related Categories: Television, Tornadoes
**DEVASTATING TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY**
Posted At: May 5, 2007 @ 7:08 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Saturday, May 5, 2007 will likely be day remembered by storm chasers and residents of the Central Plains for the rest of their lives. We don't have time to get into detail, since we need to get in position EARLY for this event...the models are forecasting extreme instability and wind shear by noon, with tornadic supercells firing along the dryline by early afternoon. The SPC issued a high risk for western/central KS for this dangerous outbreak.
DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK Yesterday Evening
Posted At: May 4, 2007 @ 9:05 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Here is our video of the EIlis Co., OK tornado...As I said, we were within 50 yards of this violent tornado!! We had to back up at the last second to avoid being hit by it (we were actually within the circulation!), and my cell phone fell out onto the road, and was hit by the tornado...it's probably still airborne. Meanwhile, a DAMAGING tornado moved through Greensburg, KS...VERY bad situation. Our friends Dick McGowan and Darin Brunin reported that the entire town of Greensburg was severely damaged. This is a very sad situation, as there were likely fatalities.
Tomorrow looks like an even more widespread outbreak, with even more intense kinematics.
Here is the video link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNL7ASvl4k4
Strong tornadoes possible in NE, KS, and OK tomorrow
Posted At: May 3, 2007 @ 11:29 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The CAPE will be immense, and the shear will be incredible tomorrow. Large tornadoes and softball size hail are possible with any supercells that develop in the warm sector from southern NE southward through the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. The crazy thing is...Saturday looks even more widespread than Friday. Here are some 4km WRF precip forecast products for tomorrow by 7 pm:
If the 4 km WRF precip forecast verifies, a massive supercell will move eastward across southwest into south-central Ks tomorrow evening. It also fires a cell down near Lawton, OK, but with the strong cap further south, storm initiation is less likely. Based on the potential severity of this outbreak, the SPC has issued a moderate risk over the above region for the possibility of strong tornadoes and widespread hail of over 2 inches in diameter. The SPC 0600 UTC Day 1 convective outlook is shown below, along with their forecast tornado probabilities.
Our current target is between Garden City and Sharon Springs, where likely initiation, extreme instability, and the best low-level shear exist (esp. near or after 7 pm when the LLJ intensifies). We're leaving at 7 am, so as usual, will likely get to our target 3 hours before initiation and drive in circles until the storms develop.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE CHASING TODAY!!!
If the 4 km WRF precip forecast verifies, a massive supercell will move eastward across southwest into south-central Ks tomorrow evening. It also fires a cell down near Lawton, OK, but with the strong cap further south, storm initiation is less likely. Based on the potential severity of this outbreak, the SPC has issued a moderate risk over the above region for the possibility of strong tornadoes and widespread hail of over 2 inches in diameter. The SPC 0600 UTC Day 1 convective outlook is shown below, along with their forecast tornado probabilities.
Our current target is between Garden City and Sharon Springs, where likely initiation, extreme instability, and the best low-level shear exist (esp. near or after 7 pm when the LLJ intensifies). We're leaving at 7 am, so as usual, will likely get to our target 3 hours before initiation and drive in circles until the storms develop.
GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE CHASING TODAY!!!
Significant tornado outbreaks possible Friday-Sunday across the Plains
Posted At: May 3, 2007 @ 12:48 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The huge trough will solidify in the western U.S. by Friday, inducing a strong low-level jet over the Great Plains with intense upper dynamics. The best moisture of the season will be advected northward, with widespread mid-upper 60s dewpoints as far north as the Dakotas by Saturday. Wednesday night's WRF and GFS model runs now look incredible for Friday-Sunday for a large portion of the Plains. The general parameters forecast for Friday evening by the WRF are displayed below:
Our target area for Friday will be more definitely by tomorrow, but it appears now that somewhere between Hays and Wichita, KS will see significant tornadic supercells on Friday. If we weren't chasing this event we'd have to have our head examined...AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
EL PASO, TX TORNADOES!!
Posted At: May 2, 2007 @ 1:03 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Several tornadoes have been reported so far today in FAR west TX near El Paso, and in southeast NM, likely in association with the upper low. Two tornadoes were reported in the vicinity of El Paso, with tornado warnings everywhere! VERY RARE situation for El Paso! I have a friend who lives there, and I'll see if he saw any of these hoses.
New Ruc model looks very interesting today for Del Rio-Junction, TX
Posted At: May 2, 2007 @ 9:57 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The 15Z RUC model run looks very favorable for supercells and possibly tornadoes today from Del Rio to Junction to San Angelo, TX. 4000-5000 J/kg CAPE is forecast to develop by late afternoon over this area south of San Angelo, with a 30 kt low-level jet forecast to develop by 00z (see 700 mb map below).
The left-exit region of an upper-level jet streak will also move over south TX by late afternoon, with massive upper-level divergence further enhancing lift over the region. The RUC precip forecast by 00z is shows the result of this upper support, with widespread convection developing from San Angelo southward. The only limiting factor for tornadoes today will be the widespread nature of the storms, with cell interactions likely to be rampant. Also, the low-level shear is marginal...A low-level jet of at least 40 kts would be sufficient for long-track tornadoes, but the RUC is forecasting ~30 kts for 00z. We should be chasing this one, and I'll be very unstable if something big happens down there. However, my laptop is currently having the LCD screen replaced, so we'd be blind down there and would not be prepared for the big action beginning Friday. Stay tuned for updates!
The left-exit region of an upper-level jet streak will also move over south TX by late afternoon, with massive upper-level divergence further enhancing lift over the region. The RUC precip forecast by 00z is shows the result of this upper support, with widespread convection developing from San Angelo southward. The only limiting factor for tornadoes today will be the widespread nature of the storms, with cell interactions likely to be rampant. Also, the low-level shear is marginal...A low-level jet of at least 40 kts would be sufficient for long-track tornadoes, but the RUC is forecasting ~30 kts for 00z. We should be chasing this one, and I'll be very unstable if something big happens down there. However, my laptop is currently having the LCD screen replaced, so we'd be blind down there and would not be prepared for the big action beginning Friday. Stay tuned for updates!
Supercells likely in southwest TX today
Posted At: May 1, 2007 @ 11:09 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
An upper low will move from northern Mexico towards southwest TX today (Wednesday), increasing lift and deep layer shear over southwest TX and the Hill Country by afternoon. However, the low-level jet will be weak, and thus, low-level shear profiles will be marginal at best for tornadoes. Unfortunately, we'll be sitting this one out once again, as we are preparing financially for 5+ straight days of chasing beginning with Friday, when tornado chances will be HUGE.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday all of the potential to be significant tornado outbreaks, with extreme instability and low-level shear, resulting from a massive trough forecast to solidify over the Western U.S. beginning on Friday.
Tornado warnings in TX and OH!
Posted At: May 1, 2007 @ 3:24 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
An isolated supercell developed just southeast of Brady, TX around 3:00 pm CDT, and has produced baseball size hail and tornado warnings since initiating. McCulloch and Mason Counties are currently under tornado warnings, with a landspout reported earlier in the afternoon. Here is a zoomed-in radar image as of 5:20 pm CDT of the TX supercell:
More numerous supercells have been occurring in extreme northeast Indiana and northern Ohio this afternoon, with several tornado warnings issued. One tornado was reported in Fulton County, Ohio on the turnpike by law enforcement. These storms are racing eastward and will continue to have the threat for tornadoes the rest of the afternoon. Here is a radar image from Cleveland showing the OH supercells.
More numerous supercells have been occurring in extreme northeast Indiana and northern Ohio this afternoon, with several tornado warnings issued. One tornado was reported in Fulton County, Ohio on the turnpike by law enforcement. These storms are racing eastward and will continue to have the threat for tornadoes the rest of the afternoon. Here is a radar image from Cleveland showing the OH supercells.
Tornadic supercell raging in eastern Mexico!
Posted At: May 1, 2007 @ 8:14 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
This INCREDIBLE supercell was located west of Brownsville In Mexico as of 9:45 pm CDT, propagating slowly to the SSW. The low-level jet is likely intensifying in the environment around this cell, locally enhancing the low-level shear. HUGE hail and a tornado are definitely possible with this storm. The storm-relative velocity image is displayed below, showing an intense mesocyclone with this storm.
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