TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: April 29, 2007 @ 3:34 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A cut-off storm system over the Southwest U.S. has resulted in favorable wind shear and instability for supercells over Southwest TX and extreme northeast Mexico west of Del Rio, TX.  Given CAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg, and marginal 0-1 km and 0-3 km helicity, the tornado threat will be minimal with these storms.  However, if a storm can move along the southwest to northeast-oriented warm front, then the tornado threat will locally be enhanced.


The Midland radar is of 5:20 pm showed supercells just north I-10 in the Pecos Valley, with one cell tornado-warned at the time.  Additional tornado warnings were associated with a storm near Abilene, TX as of 5:20 pm, but appeared to be weakening rapidly.   The strongest supercells were located in extreme northeast Mexico west of Del Rio, TX, south of the "Big Bend".  Three supercells were observed on Del Rio radar, with the northern storm showing a classic hook echo.  The Midland (top) and Del Rio (bottom) radar images as of 5:20 are shown below:




The RUC analysis for CAPE at 2100 UTC shows a southwest to northeast-oriented warm front, with CAPEs to the southeast of the front in the 1500-2000+ j/kg range.  The Del Rio and Abilene VAD wind profile shows good directional shear with height, but with only ~15 knot wind magnitudes at the low levels.  For this reason, the 0-1 km helicities are not sufficient for large tornadoes.  However, a supercell could produce a tornado as it passes over the warm front in southwest TX.  The 4:00 pm CDT RUC analysis for CAPE and 0-1 km helicity are shown below:

CAPE:


0-1 KM HELICITY:

Posted At: April 27, 2007 @ 4:37 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here are some video frame captures of the nighttime tornado we saw from SR 285 between Happy and Wayside, TX as it moved through the Palo Duro, Canyon.  After observing the tornado, we ran into the damage path on SR 285 a few miles down the road.  Telephone poles were knocked over, blocking the road, and cows were wandering outside their fence.  This tornado looked very strong!

Posted At: April 26, 2007 @ 1:02 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong, vertically-stacked storm system has now moved into the Great Lakes Region, with a surface low located just south of Lake Michigan in IL, and a warm front extending eastward across northern IN and OH.  ~60F dewpoints have advected northward into the warm sector along and south of the warm front, resulting in small, but sufficient instability with CAPEs around 500 J/kg.  A tornado watch has just been issued for this area:


The best low-level shear exists in the vicinity of the warm front across northern IN/OH, where surface winds are more backed.  As storms move across the warm front, they will have a heightened chance of producing a tornado.  It appears that surface-based storms are initiating in western IN at this time, so these storms will have a chance of going tornadic as the cross the warm front in northern IN over the next few hours.  This area of storms will gradually move eastward throughout the day, with new storms likely developing in central IN and moving NNE towards northern OH. 


The RUC model shows a low-level jet intensifying towards 7 pm over western OH, so the tornado threat should subsequently increase to the south of the warm front across western and central OH later this evening.  The RUC forecast 850 mb (left) and 500 mb (right) flow is shown below.  Given the low CAPE and low tropopause height over this region, the supercells will be very low-topped and small in size.  However, they are still capable of producing tornadoes.  Stay tuned for updates!
 

Posted At: April 25, 2007 @ 3:29 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here is a video I found of the damage from the Eagle Pass, TX tornado.  The damage appears to be at least EF-2, maybe as high as EF-3.  The San Antonio NWS office supposedly issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Maverick County, but mentioned a tornado was likely occurring over Mexico.  However, the tornado warning was not issued until 5-10 minutes before the tornado hit Eagle Pass.  This could give rise to significant controversy in the coming days.  It looks like the San Antonio NWS may have dropped the ball....BIG TIME!

Posted At: April 25, 2007 @ 10:40 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Sadly, 10 people lost their lives from a violent tornado that originated in northeast Mexico and crossed the border into Texas south of Del Rio.  The towns of Eagle Pass, TX and Piedras Negras, Mexico were the hardest hit, and tornado warnings were not issued for the Mexican side of the border!  This supercell likely produced several long-track tornadoes in northeast Mexico before crossing into Texas.  I will post radar images of this supercell shortly.


Meanwhile, a cold-core tornado event is possible today in extreme northeast OK, southeast KS, southwest MO, and northwest AR, as well as a few tornadoes ahead of a squall line in the western/central Gulf Coast Region.  Stay tuned for updates!
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Posted At: April 24, 2007 @ 7:34 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Joel and I intercepted several small tornadoes/funnels from a supercell in Reno County, KS today just southeast of Sterling (video is below).  The supercell had absolutely beautiful LP structure.  Meanwhile, the high risk continues this evening in East Texas as the low-level jet intensifies.  Large tornadoes are very possible tonight.

Posted At: April 24, 2007 @ 1:08 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The SPC has issued a high risk for this afternoon for central and eastern TX, with a moderate risk still extending into KS.  Two areas of strong tornado risk are highlight: central/eastern KS and central/eastern TX.  We are currently monitoring developing storms to the west of Salina, KS, while tornadic cells are ongoing in the DFW Metroplex.  VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION!

Posted At: April 24, 2007 @ 8:32 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Towers are already exploding along the rapidly-mixing dryline in southwest OK/northwest TX.  We're heading out stat!

Posted At: April 24, 2007 @ 8:01 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A textbook springtime storm system is in place over the Central/Southern Plains today, with a strong dryline currently mixing rapidly eastward across western KS, OK, and TX.  As instability increases ahead of this boundary, supercells are expected to develop by mid-afternoon along the dryline, and rapidly become supercellular.  The tornado threat is still rather uncertain, as the evolution of the low-level jet ahead of the dryline is slightly in question.  We plan on leaving within the hour once our target becomes more clear.  STAY TUNED!

Posted At: April 23, 2007 @ 7:30 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Three supercells produced large violent tornadoes today, one in extreme northwest OK, a second supercell in northwest KS, and a third prolific tornado producer west of Abilene, TX.  My roomate, storm chaser Aaron Ruppert of vortexbreakdown.com, saw several large tornadoes between Sharon Springs and Goodland, KS, including two huge tornadoes on the ground at the same time.  Here is a radar image of the northwest KS storm:

The storm we intercepted northeast of Amarillo had INCREDIBLE structure.  One of the most beautiful LP supercells I've ever seen.  We thought a tornado was certain with this storm.  We observed intense rotation in the updraft, and the LLJ appeared VERY intense.  After awhile, it slowly began to decrease in size, and eventually was the skinniest rotating storm I have ever seen.  The jet circulation must have not been favorable...tornadoes to our south and a tornado to our north...the RUC model must have had a bad handle on this storm. 

Posted At: April 23, 2007 @ 7:28 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A very interesting setup will prevail across southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles today, with strong tornadoes possible by late afternoon/evening as the low-level jet intensifies.  A warm front will be extending WNW to ESE across central KS by 7:00 pm, with a dryline extending south across the central Panhandles.  Low-level shear and CAPE will be maximized over the eastern TX Panhandle, but southwest KS and southeast CO also have sufficient shear/instability for tornadoes.  Shown below is the RUC forecast 0-1 km EHI (left) and 4 km WRF forecast precip for 00z this evening.

 
The SPC has issued a moderate risk for this area, along with a threat for significant tornadoes.  Based on the RUC and 12 z WRF this morning, we favor the eastern TX Panhandle if a storm will initiate that far south.  However, our plan is to still keep southwest KS in play just in case storms do not initiate further south.  STAY TUNED!

Posted At: April 21, 2007 @ 7:53 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Sadly, Tulia, TX sustained severe damage from a large, violent tornado.  We intercepted the storm when it was just west of Tulia, and watched the tornado touch down less than 1/4 mile away.  Here is a brief video clip from 1/4 mile east of downtown Tulia as the tornado was moving through town.  WARNING!  SOME ADULT LANGUAGE! 

After the Tulia tornado, we drove at 5 mph down mud roads in 4x4 for about an hour, getting sprayed with mud every time we opened the window to videotape the tornado.  We were blocked by the damage path, and were forced to take a detour to the east to get back to Amarillo.  On our way back, we ran into a large stovepipe tornado after dark between Happy, TX and Wayside, TX.  I have several frame captures of this large tornado that I'll post later.  Shown below are a few more frame captures of the Tulia tornado.

Posted At: April 21, 2007 @ 1:03 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for the southern High Plains, including much of the TX Panhandle, for a tornado watch that will be issued soon.  We are now heading just west of Amarillo to await initiation to our southwest. 

Posted At: April 21, 2007 @ 8:16 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

An outbreak of severe weather is likely over the High Plains of TX, KS, and NE today, with the likelihood of tornadoes and enormous hail.  Sufficient moisture, incredible low-level shear, and a powerful vort max will set the stage for tornado-producing supercells by mid-late afternoon.  Our target area is between Amarillo and Plainview, TX where CAPEs will be maximized.   The Saturday morning WRF forecast CAPE, helicity, and 850 mb flow for Saturday evening is displayed below.
   
As seen above left, the WRF is forecasting a narrow corridor of uncapped instability just to the east of the dryline, which is co-located with extreme 0-1 km and 0-3 km helicity.  If the moisture situation was slightly better, an outbreak of strong tornadoes would be definite.  Still though, mid-upper 50 dewpoints should be more than sufficient for tornadoes.  The SPC has issued a moderate risk in their Day 1 outlook (see below), along with a 10% area for tornadoes.  A hatched area for the possibility of strong tornadoes was also included.  The tracker has been activated, and updates will be posted frequently!

Posted At: April 20, 2007 @ 12:55 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The Storm Prediction Center issued a moderate risk on their Day 2 outlook for Saturday, April  21.  As mentioned in the previous post, the low- and deep-layer shear is forecast to be EXTREME!  The only thing preventing a definite tornado outbreak is the modest low-level moisture.  However, dewpoints will still likely be sufficient for several tornadoes.  STAY TUNED!

Posted At: April 19, 2007 @ 11:53 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

As a potent upper trough moves through the Rocky Mountain Region, an intense low level jet will develop over the High Plains from TX north to NE, resulting in modest moisture return and incredible wind shear.  The SPC has issued a slight risk for this region (shown below):

Our target area right now is the extreme western TX Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, from Hobbs to Clovis.  Surface winds will be strong out of the southeast (below right), and dewpoints will be in the low to mid-50s, yielding ~1000 J/kg of CAPE (below left).  Just above the surface at 700 mb, winds will be out of the due south at 40+ kts, resulting in immaculate low-level wind shear.   The supercells maybe initially LP and high-based, but as the moisture return continues, and surface temperatures decrease due to anvil shadows and loss of daytime heating during the evening, the tornado threat will increase dramatically.  Shown below is the WRF run from Thursday morning for Saturday evening (CAPE and 850 mb flow).
 

Posted At: April 17, 2007 @ 12:55 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A fairly classic "cold-core" setup was in place over the southern Texas Panhandle earlier this afternoon, with 3 landspout tornadoes reported in Hockley, Lubbock, and Parmer Counties.  A severe thunderstorm watch was issued for the Hill Country and Northwest TX for the rest of the afternoon.  An in-depth explanation of cold-core tornado events is included below.
 

Cold-core events typically occur when a cold 500 mb low passes over a modestly moist low-level environment, yielding sufficient instability in the low-levels of the atmosphere.  Cold-core tornadoes do not occur in the warm sector, where most supercell tornadoes are produced, but usually occur further to the northwest along the occluded boundary to the ESE of the 500 mb and surface low.  The occluded boundary is produced when the cold front overtakes the warm front, and modest moisture is often advected westward to the north of this boundary where easterly flow prevails.  To the south of the occluded boundary, an ideal cold-core setup is characterized by a dry, sunny atmosphere as the mid-level "dry punch" advects rapidly eastward to the south of the upper low.  Given the very cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low, storms often initiate in the vicinity of the occluded boundary, and stretch existing vorticity or spin induced by the differing densities between the air north and south of the occluded boundary.   As this vorticity is stretched in the vertical, the rate of spin increases, and landspout tornadoes (non-supercell tornadoes) can be produced if the stretching by the thunderstorm updraft is sufficient.  Mini-supercell storms can also develop as the storms cross to the immediate north of the occluded boundary into an environment of enhanced wind shear, where low-level easterlies are present.  A composite of the surface and upper-level features typical of a cold-core tornado event was created by John Davies, an expert and pioneer of this topic.



**THIS WEEKEND LOOKS VERY ACTIVE FOR TORNADOES OVER THE PLAINS!  STAY TUNED!**

Posted At: April 16, 2007 @ 9:06 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The same storm system that produced tornadoes in Texas, exploded into a historic Nor'easter that has been battering the Northeast U.S. this weekend with record-setting rainfall, snowfall, and wind.  7.81 inches of rain fell in Central Park from Sunday morning through Monday morning, shattering the old record of 1.8 inches in 1906.  Up to 17 inches of snow fell in Vermont, and winds across the entire region gusted well over 50 mph.  The storm has stalled over New England, but should move into the Atlantic by mid-week.
 

Posted At: April 14, 2007 @ 10:25 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The severe weather outbreak expected today in the Central Gulf Coast region is now underway.  A powerful high-precipitation (HP) supercell has exploded in southeast MS and has now moved into AL just north of Mobile.  This storm has a very strong couplet, and may have a rain-wrapped tornado on the ground.  Here are some radar images as of 12:30 pm CDT.
 

Posted At: April 13, 2007 @ 9:37 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Our friend Simon Brewer, of Stormgasm.com, captured this tornado in Tarrant County, TX, just southwest of Fort Worth, TX.  He captured video from within 1/4 mile of the debris cloud as the hose passed across I-20...you can view the video on the front page of his website.

Posted At: April 13, 2007 @ 5:15 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Tornadoes have been reported with an HP supercell that rapidly intensified as it approached the DFW Metroplex.  As of 7:15 pm CDT, a tornado was just reported in Mesquite, TX, a highly populated suburb of Dallas.

Posted At: April 12, 2007 @ 10:10 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The Thursday night model runs look incredible for tornadoes in northern and central Texas tomorrow (Friday), especially along and south of a W-E oriented warm front that is forecast to stretch through the DFW Metroplex at 7 pm Friday.   Shown below is the simulated radar reflectivity for 7 pm tomorrow from the 4 km WRF.


The high-resolution experimental WRF is showing a double dryline structure, with surface winds backed to a southeasterly direction along and east of the I-35 corridor.  This model has been consistently too far east with storm initiation, so the eastern dryline will likely be just west of the DFW Metroplex most of the afternoon.  Our target is the intersection of this eastern dryline and the warm front, where low-level shear will be greatly enhanced.  Shown below are the forecast CAPE (left) and 0-1 km helicity (right) for 7 pm Friday:
 
The yellow shading in the left image indicates CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg, and the green coloring in the right image indicates 0-1km helicity values of 150+ m2/s2, more than sufficient for strong tornadoes.  Note the rapid increase in helicity values along and just north of the warm front stretching along I-20 through the DFW Metroplex.  The warm front can also be clearly seen in the WRF forecast dewpoint map shown below:


Since 300 mb flow will mainly be out of the WSW over this region, a right-moving supercell could easily move along the WSW-ENE oriented warm front, and thus will exist in a very strongly sheared environment.  Dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s will prevail in the warm sector, giving rise to low cloud bases and moderate-strong instability.

Based on the most recent model runs, we would not be surprised at all if a few strong, large tornadoes occur over this area along and near the warm front, and possibly even south into the warm sector along the dryline.  Stay tuned for more updates...we'll have the tracker up and running tomorrow morning!

Posted At: April 11, 2007 @ 12:01 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

VERY unusual weather will be occurring over the central/southern U.S. this week, with heavy snow now falling over the Great Lakes region, a tornado watch for Alabama today (Wednesday), tornadoes likely in eastern TX on Friday, and a blizzard possible in KS/northern OK on Friday-Saturday. 
 
Shown below is the WRF forecast surface map (left) and 12 hr accumulated precip from 00z Friday to 12z Saturday morning (right).  Note the 540 line (blue dotted) in the left image is surging south through the Central Plains.  This line typically denotes the surface freezing line, and north of this line snow will be the predominant precipitation type.  The 540 line will surge south through Oklahoma into Texas by Saturday morning, with the current model runs predicting snow accumulations as far south as Oklahoma.  Meanwhile, severe weather will be likely in the warm sector in east TX on Friday afternoon, with the chance for tornadoes.  We will definitely be chasing in the warm sector on Friday, so stay tuned for more updates!

 

Posted At: April 10, 2007 @ 4:04 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A strong supercell exploded along the shoreline very near Boynton Beach, Florida at around 6:30 pm EDT along a cold front/outflow boundary propagating southward.  Just offshore, the storm exhibited strong rotation on radar, and likely was producing a tornado/waterspout.  Shown below are radar images of this incredible storm.
 

Posted At: April 8, 2007 @ 8:26 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

I finally finished the March 28, 2007 chase log highlight, and posted it below.  Also included are the March 23, 2007 New Mexico event and the February 28, 2007 eastern KS tornadoes.  Things look to be getting very active again late this week..Stay tuned for updates!!

Posted At: April 3, 2007 @ 7:02 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A supercell developed just north of the DFW Metroplex and discretely propagated SSW along the nearly stationary cold front through Arlington, TX this evening.  A tornado warning was issued at 8:23 pm CDT, for a rapidly rotating wall cloud/funnel, and 1-3 inch hail was produced in the city!  Fortunately, it appears from the storm reports that the tornado did not touch down.  Shown below is a radar image at the time of the tornado:
Gene Yates was in Arlington at the time of the storm...We are awaiting his report regarding any hail or tornado damage that occurred in the DFW Metroplex tonight.

Posted At: April 3, 2007 @ 5:02 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Here are some pictures emailed to me by Derek McDaniel and Heidi Farrar, both residents of Northern Arkansas, of the supercells that fired there this afternoon.  The first picture, by Derek, shows the base of a rapidly intensifying supercell just northeast of Marshall, AR.  This storm was tornado warned shortly after the photo.  The second photo, taken by Heidi Farrar, shows a nice shelf cloud from the supercell in Izard County, AR, and the third photo shows the distant severe thunderstorms in southeast MO.  Thanks for the photos!

Posted At: April 3, 2007 @ 3:52 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The surface winds unexpectedly backed to a more southerly direction in extreme northeastern AR, creating conditions more favorable for tornadic activity.  The front was also moving more slowly in this region, allowing for any supercells to turn right and move southeastward away from the boundary.  A tornado warning was issued for Clay County in eastern AR at 5:25 pm CDT...however, the couplets on these storms have yet to tighten and strengthen.

Posted At: April 3, 2007 @ 12:07 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The SPC has issued a tornado watch for a large portion of the central Mississippi River Valley (see below) for the storms firing along a strong cold front moving through central MO and IL as of 2:00 pm CDT.  However, the storms are having trouble moving off the front, and are being undercut and forced into linear structure, limiting the tornado threat.  The low-level shear in this area is also not sufficient for long-lived tornadoes.


Still though, a few tornado warnings have been issued based on doppler radar over MO and IL this afternoon.  The greatest tornado threat exists over southeast MO, with any supercells that can sustain themselves on the front without getting undercut by the cold air.  The best looking cell right now is located just south of the Rolla, MO area, but the rotating on radar is not strong.  The MO portion of this event as of ~2:00 pm CDT is shown below in the radar image:

Posted At: April 3, 2007 @ 8:28 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk today across portions of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, and extreme northeast TX.  However, today does not look favorable for tornadoes, and will primarily be a wind/hail event.  Given unidirectional shear profiles and strong forcing along the cold front, a squall line and several smaller linear convective structures will develop in the outlook area. 
 
Given the very low chances for tornadoes, we will not be chasing in the Mississippi River Valley today.  Rather, we will be watching north-central and northeast TX for explosive convective development later this afternoon and evening.  The tornado potential here is still very low, but we will likely see some massive hail.
Stay tuned for updates.