TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: March 30, 2006 @ 3:00 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

It is now 2am on Thursday, early in the morning before a potential major severe weather outbreak later this afternoon. We are extremely anxious for tomorrow, since we had difficulties on March 12th keeping pace with the fast moving storms after getting pounded by baseball-sized hail. Our windwhield is replaced, and we are eager to redeem ourselves after a difficult, yet exciting beginning to the season. Our intial target area for tomorrow is in east-central or northeast KS, where low-level shear and CAPE will be maximized. The main reason for selecting this location over southeast NE or southeast KS/northeast OK is that the forecast hodographs look slightly more favorable in northeast KS, with the storm motion vector making a near 90 degree angle with the base of a very long 0-1 km shear vector, which is extremely favorable for strong tornadoes. The hodographs over the rest of the warm sector are still impressive, but not quite as favorable as that of northeast KS. Joel and I are departing at around 6 am, since we expect the show to begin early tomorrow. Stay tuned for breaking news updates, and look for a detailed account in the chase logs page will soon follow.

UPDATE: Three supercells were intercepted in E KS, but only brief funnels were observed.

Posted At: March 12, 2006 @ 3:04 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

All ingredients appear to be coming together for the "apocalypse" on Sunday! A very dangerous, life-threatening situation will likely unfold during the afternoon and overnight hours on Sunday as significant low-level wind shear, dewpoints of 65oF+, CAPEs of 2500-3000 J/kg, and near 0 CIN will exist throughout the warm sector. 0-1km SR helicity values of up to 300 m2/s2 and higher along with a moderately unstable airmass will likely yield several supercells with long-track, strong tornadoes over eastern KS, MO, southern IL, and AR on Sunday. Reed and Joel are intially targeting central MO, but the forecast may change slightly by Saturday night. The ETA forecast 500mb flow, 0-1km SR helicty, and CAPE for 00z Monday are displayed below.

Posted At: March 12, 2006 @ 3:01 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

TornadoVideos.net stormchasers Reed Timmer and Joel Taylor tracked the best storm of the day on both March 11 and 12, 2006 through KS, OK, MO, and AR. Joel's windshield was destroyed by baseball-sized hail in extreme eastern KS while attempting to race a rapidly rotating wall cloud moving at 60 mph. However, they could not keep up with either storm for more than a few hours given the 60 kt storm motions, so no tornadoes were documented. Several phone interviews were done with Fox News throughout the event.

Posted At: March 11, 2006 @ 3:02 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The first of two potential severe weather outbreaks will likely occur during the afternoon and overnight hours of Saturday, March 11, 2006. Although not as ideal as Sunday, the conditions on Saturday still appear favorable for strong tornadoes over northern AR and southern MO. Our initial target area as of late on Friday night for Saturday is between Joplin and Springfield, MO. CAPE values of 2000+ J/kg, 0 CIN, strong upper flow, and 0-1km SR helicity values of 150 m2/s2 are forecast by the ETA and GFS to be centered near or to the south of SW Missouri between 18 and 00z. The ETA also forecasts convection developing by early- to mid-afternoon in central and eastern MO and southwest MO, northeast OK, and northwest AR by mid-late afternoon. A target of southwest MO was chosen because storms that develop to the south in northern AR and northeast OK would be easily accessible, as well as earlier storms in southwest/central MO. The ETA forecast 500 mb flow, 0-1km SR helicity, and CAPE at 00z, 00z, and 18z, respectively, are displayed below.

Posted At: March 10, 2006 @ 3:02 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Major severe weather outbreaks are possible over the mid- to lower-Mississippi Valley on Saturday, March 11 and especially on Sunday, March 12. TV.net stormchasers Reed Timmer and Joel Taylor will of course be on-location during both of these potentially life-threatening events, attempting to capture extreme, close-up tornado footage. In response to a massive trough covering the entire western U.S., a strong low level jet developed on Friday afternoon and will continue throughout the weekend. As of 0600 UTC on 11 Mar 2006, low to mid 60oF have been transported as far north as southeast OK by the LLJ. By Saturday afternoon, at mid 60oF+ dewpoints will prevail as far north as central IL. Strong deep-layer shear, minimal linear forcing, and a deep-layer shear vector perpendicular to the boundary will likely yield discrete supercells throughout AR, MO, and IL on Saturday and Sunday. Low-level shear will be more than adequate for tornadoes on both Saturday and Sunday afternnoon/night over AR, MO, and IL, with at least 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SR helicities throughout the warm sector. Individual discussions for Saturday and Sunday follow below.

Stay tuned for updates!