News

TS Dolly gaining strength after emerging in the Gulf

Posted At: July 21, 2008 @ 11:08 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Dolly now has a very well defined closed circulation, and has intensified gradually since emerging in the Gulf of Mexico from the extreme northern Yucatan (although the ill-defined center of circulation at the time may have missed the peninsula all together).  Maximum sustained winds have been measured at 45 knots by hurricane reconnaissance aircraft, with most of the convection on the north and east side of the storm.  Any explosive intensification will likely not occur until deep convection forms or wraps around the center.  Based on recent satellite trends, it also appears that Dolly is moving in a more westerly direction toward northern Mexico, rather than South Texas - but of course this may not continue.  TVN is keeping a VERY close eye on this storm, and will likely intercept if it appears Dolly will attain category 3 intensity.  Stay tuned for updates!

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Texas Coast Under the Gun???

Posted At: July 20, 2008 @ 8:29 PM
Posted By: Matthew Van Every
Related Categories: Hurricanes

Dolly achieved tropical storm status today and is still slowly brewing in the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center has Dolly slowly strengthening to a category 1 hurricane and making landfall somewhere near Brownsville Tx. mid day on Wednesday.


Dolly's Track

After keeping a close eye on this system and watching it's environment, I think that this storm has a really good chance at a rapid explosion from T.S. to a Cat. 2 once it clears land due to the extremely warm waters (23 c) and favorable upperlevel conditions. Also, there is a weak low-pressure system sweeping across Northern U.S. This will break down the mid level ridge and allow Dolly to track further north of the current forecast, possibly placing the storm to make landfall between Houston and Corpus Christi TX. This more northern track is also backed by climatology of July storms (look below).

July Climo

TVN Stream 1 is keeping a close eye on this system to see how it evolves. We are hoping to start our Hurricane Hunting early this year!!!

If this happens, buy fuel before it makes landfall!!!

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