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Posted At: May 1, 2008 @ 8:47 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

A moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for eastern Kansas, mainly for the threat of very large hail.  While the SPC mentions moisture will be a limiting factor for tornadoes today, we still think moisture will be sufficient for strong tornadoes near 00z when the upper-level support finally arrives.  We're targeting South Kansas just south of the triple point!  I'm not sure why comments were disabled in the last post!

Posted At: April 30, 2008 @ 10:25 PM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Strong tornadoes are likely with any supercells that develop tomorrow ahead of the cold front/dryline from eastern Kansas south into eastern Oklahoma.  Late arrival of the upper forcing will prevent storms from initiating until late afternoon/evening, beginning first in Northeast KS along the cold front, and later on along the dryline into Northeast OK near sunset.  All models are forecasting a narrow axis of strong instability immediately east of the dryline, with a 40+ knot 850 mb jet from Texas into the Northern Plains.  This strong LLJ will result in immense low-level shear, creating an environment favorable for strong tornadoes.  We'll definitely be chasing tomorrow, so stay tuned to the live tracker!  Here are the 00z WRF forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 00z tomorrow: