TornadoVideos.net

Posted At: March 30, 2008 @ 10:39 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

There are significant differences between this morning's NAM and RUC model runs, especially in terms of the location of the primary surface boundaries (dryline, cold/then-warm front), and timing of convective initiation this evening.  The NAM is forecasting the cold front to sag south to near I-40 by 00z this evening, with ~2000-2500 J/kg and little CIN prevailing to the south, but delays convective initiation until after 00z.  The 13z RUC on the other hand, maintains a more SSW to NNE orientation of the cold front stretching from Woodward, OK to just north of Childress, TX.  The RUC also is predicting much higher CAPE values by 00z approaching the 4000 J/kg range, with convective initiation throughout western OK between 21 and 00z!  This solution is believable considering the quality of moisture over the Southern Plains this morning, and the fact that the front is surging southward primarily in the Texas Panhandle, but not further east.  We'll definitely be chasing this event...our target is western OK near 00z -- the brand new tracker will be up and running in an hour or so...we've fixed our data connection problems and the tracker updates every few seconds.  Stay tuned for updates, and check out the forum for Nowcasting and Reports over the next few days (Monday looks like the apocalypse).