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Posted At: March 29, 2008 @ 2:03 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

The WRF and GFS now agree on a classic dryline tornado outbreak on both Sunday and Monday across the Southern Plains.  A massive uncapped warm-sector with 1500-3000 J/kg CAPEs will prevail east of the dryline forecast to exist along the eastern TX Panhandle Border by 00z Monday, with a warm front extending ENE through southeast KS.  A 40-50 knot low-level jet will develop near or shortly after 00z Sunday evening, thus any discrete supercells will have a high likelihood of producing strong tornadoes from Northwest Texas across western OK into southeast KS on Sunday evening.  There is a high possibility of an outbreak of strong tornadoes overnight Sunday as a jet streak ejects from the Mexican Plateau and storms increase in coverage.  The dryline will progress slowly eastward overnight Sunday into central OK by Monday afternoon.   The warm sector will easily recover and become sufficiently unstable for supercells along and east of the dryline across North Texas, Central OK, into Southeast KS and MO from Monday afternoon through overnight.  The WRF forecast CAPE for 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday are shown below:
The timing of LLJ intensification tomorrow evening near or shortly after 00z will be a huge factor determining the extent of the tornado outbreak tomorrow evening.  However, low-level shear will certainly not be a problem on Monday, and a widespread tornado outbreak seems inevitable based on these models runs.  The WRF forecast 850 mb flow for 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday are below.  Note the classic dryline setup for both days!:


The SPC has issued a slight risk in their Day 2 outlook, but this will likely be upgraded to a moderate risk by tomorrow.  We will definitely be chasing this event, and may try out our new and improved tracker on both days.  Stay tuned for updates!