NewsSupercells possible today in Eastern OK!
Posted At: March 13, 2008 @ 10:57 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A shortwave trough will eject from the Southern Rockies this afternoon, bringing the upper-support necessary for severe storms today east of the dryline in Central OK. An upper jet streak, and the sufficient moisture will arrive relatively late (21-23z) in southeast OK, so it looks like convective initiation will hold off until at least 5:00 pm, but a strong cap may delay things until after that time. The RUC initiates convection in eastern OK after 6:00 pm, but between 6 and 7 pm explosive, isolated convection is forecast. A low-level jet of 30-40 knots will intensify ahead of the advancing shortwave (see 850 mb RUC forecast below), with CAPE values of 1500-2000 ahead of the dryline (see RUC cape forecast below).
While the cap will be a concern today, as well as the late arrival of the upper support and deep moisture (tied in with the strong cap), supercells will still be possible by very late afternoon and overnight across eastern OK into western OK - but these storms may quickly become elevated shortly after sunset, so the window for tornadoes will likely be rather narrow. The SPC has issued a 5% area for tornadoes, as well as a hatched area for very large hail. We'll be keeping a close eye on this event, and will likely head out and chase if convective initiation becomes imminent....but tomorrow (Friday) looks like the big event! Stay tuned for updates.
While the cap will be a concern today, as well as the late arrival of the upper support and deep moisture (tied in with the strong cap), supercells will still be possible by very late afternoon and overnight across eastern OK into western OK - but these storms may quickly become elevated shortly after sunset, so the window for tornadoes will likely be rather narrow. The SPC has issued a 5% area for tornadoes, as well as a hatched area for very large hail. We'll be keeping a close eye on this event, and will likely head out and chase if convective initiation becomes imminent....but tomorrow (Friday) looks like the big event! Stay tuned for updates.
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