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Severe weather outbreak possible on St. Patrick's Day!

Posted At: March 11, 2008 @ 10:22 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong vorticity maximum is forecast to amplify over the Rocky Mountain Region and eject east across the Plains on Monday, March 17.  Model runs over the past few days have been very consistent with the timing and strength of this feature, so confidence is high that severe weather will develop somewhere across the Southern Plains east to the MS River Valley early next week.  A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of this vort max, which will transport Gulf moisture northward and generate favorable low-level shear for tornadoes in the warm sector.  The only possible limiting factor for severe weather with this system is the quality of the moisture return, especially for the Southern Plains, with dewpoints struggling to make the 50F mark.   Stay tuned for updates...

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