News

Moderate Risk for the Southeast US!

Posted At: March 4, 2008 @ 10:12 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a strong, nearly cut-off vorticity maximum moves across the Ohio River Valley today, a strong low-level jet and a large uncapped warm sector will prevail across the Southeast U.S. by this afternoon through evening.  500-1000 J/kg CAPE (left image below), and a 50-80 knot low-level jet (right image below) is forecast to exist from northern FL across the Carolinas into southern VA by 00z this evening.  The 12 hr WRF forecast CAPE and 850 mb for 00z is displayed below:

 

Supercells will continue develop along and ahead of the eastward advancing cold front today from northern FL across the Piedmont region, and eventually to the coastal areas by evening.  While a linear mode of convection is anticipated along the cold front, there still will likely be embedded supercells in addition to the "renegade" storms ahead of the line.  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk, including a 15% hatched area for significant tornadoes from southern VA southward to eastern GA.  Stay tuned for updates as this potentially dangerous situation unfolds!

 


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