NewsSunday severe weather event update
Posted At: March 1, 2008 @ 10:01 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The WRF model continues to slow-down the upper trough for tomorrow, and accordingly, the surface cyclone is forecast to be stronger and further north than in previous model runs. The WRF is showing a classic dryline bulge across Southwest Oklahoma by 00z just south of a triple point in the eastern Texas Panhandle, and the best low-level shear is forecast to be just east of this feature with 150+ 0-1 km helicity values over a large part of western OK. The triple point and attendant dryline bulge can be seen in the WRF forecast CAPE and 0-1 km helicity for 00z tomorrow:
Given this slower solution, the low-level jet is forecast to back to a more southerly if not SSE-ly direction by 00z tomorrow in response to the stronger low-level cyclone. This backing of the LLJ will make the hodographs more favorable for tornadoes given a northeasterly storm motion.
The only potential limiting factor for a widespread tornado outbreak over the Southern Plains tomorrow is a rather strong capping inversion, which is forecast to limit surface-based convection south of dryline bulge. The WRF also fires a strong line of convection well east of the dryline in northeast TX into southeast OK by 00z, which may be due to the lead shortwave forecast to eject ahead of the main "energy", but is still hard to believe given the lack of any well-defined surface convergence boundary. We'll likely be playing southwest OK/northwest TX near the bulging dryline but far enough south of the triple point such that any storms will not be undercut.
Meanwhile, as this system moves east towards the central Mississippi River Valley overnight Monday, heavy snow and near blizzard conditions are likely in eastern OK into southwest MO, with up to a foot of snow accumulation possible. If the severe weather setup does not look as favorable on Monday, we may document this snowstorm after the severe weather event in the Southern Plains tomorrow. Stay tuned as this insane weather situation unfolds!
Given this slower solution, the low-level jet is forecast to back to a more southerly if not SSE-ly direction by 00z tomorrow in response to the stronger low-level cyclone. This backing of the LLJ will make the hodographs more favorable for tornadoes given a northeasterly storm motion.
The only potential limiting factor for a widespread tornado outbreak over the Southern Plains tomorrow is a rather strong capping inversion, which is forecast to limit surface-based convection south of dryline bulge. The WRF also fires a strong line of convection well east of the dryline in northeast TX into southeast OK by 00z, which may be due to the lead shortwave forecast to eject ahead of the main "energy", but is still hard to believe given the lack of any well-defined surface convergence boundary. We'll likely be playing southwest OK/northwest TX near the bulging dryline but far enough south of the triple point such that any storms will not be undercut.
Meanwhile, as this system moves east towards the central Mississippi River Valley overnight Monday, heavy snow and near blizzard conditions are likely in eastern OK into southwest MO, with up to a foot of snow accumulation possible. If the severe weather setup does not look as favorable on Monday, we may document this snowstorm after the severe weather event in the Southern Plains tomorrow. Stay tuned as this insane weather situation unfolds!
Archives
Categories
