News DetailIncredible radar loop of Hurricane Gustav
Posted At: August 30, 2008 @ 7:09 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Check out this radar loop of Hurricane Gustav as it passed over Cuba as a strong category 4. Note the small bay at the apex of the concave south Cuba coast that was located in the eastern eyewall for hours. The storm surge in this area was likely 20-30 feet in height! Very dangerous conditions west and southwest of Havana..
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The pressure has dropped a little about 1 MB WOW just amazing!! Reed was this weather underground?
Computer model solutions trending east...look at that outflow! This thing could erupt when it hits that warm eddy.
its going straight for the gulf... given it has the fuel to make this thing erupt, i predict, a category 5 (+) hoot!!! i pray for the safeness of the state where gustav will make its landfall... and to the TVN good luck with your chase!!! bring us to the eye!!!
The NO city authority seems pretty concerned right now. Some quotes:
"This is the mother of all storms,"
and
"This storm is so powerful and growing more powerful every day that I'm not sure we've seen anything like it."
and
"...you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now."
and
"This is the storm of the century..." - Mayor Nagin
Also,
"...this could be as bad as it gets." - Bobby Jindal, Governor.
Apart from crazy storm chasers, Gustav is also attracting politicians. McCain and Palin are rushing down to MS. I'm sure they'll have cameras rolling too. How long till Obama arrives?
Off topic: Manitoba supercells.
At 10:10 PM Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm south of McCreary. The storm is moving to the northeast at 60 km/h. Large hail is likely with this storm. Doppler radar is also detecting some rotation. Communities in the path of the storm include McCreary, Norgate and reeve.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/mb_e.html
how gay... they use the hurricane to do their stupid political propagandas? dang... this is a major hurricane so why not unite for the mean time... damn "money matters"
We should probably try to stay off of the political-related subjects, since inevitably it will get ugly sooner or later. No Ford vs. Chevy or Canon vs. Nikon either ;-)
How bout Ford vs Nikon?
Heh, I thought you said Nixon.
I think it's a good idea to get as many people away from the coast as possible by whatever means they can but I was wondering how much of Nagin's remarks are to get people (who may think "I stayed for Katrina, I can stay for this" etc.) to take this seriously. When he says things like "storm of the century" and "mother of all storms" I think of Category 5, direct hit to a densely populated area, NOLA (or wherever it hits) uninhabitable without hope of recovery, etc. The NHC predictions make Gustav a 3 or 4 at landfall. Not that a Category 3 or 4 making landfall anywhere wouldn't be extremely destructive and worthy of such comments to get people out but I was just wondering what people who knew about hurricanes and hurricane models thought. Are those comments in reference to the potential catastrophe of breeching the NOLA levees and devastating the city again or are they a general "wherever this storm hits will be completely wiped off the map and we won't see another Gustav in our lifetimes"?
He has a fire under his butt.... since Katrina everyone is on their toes to get the people out of the city. The people shouldn't have to be told after last time, but with hurricanes it's sunny one day and 100mph winds the next.
Look at the time it took from being Cat. 2 to Cat. 3 and then 4.... That's insane! The way the eye forms in the doppler....it's strong and steady....crazy!
Contraflow is now in effect in New Orleans. I-10 eastbound in Slidell is closed. If you are coming from I-12 towards Mississippi, you will NOT be able to get past I-59. You will have to take I-59 and go northeast.
With how the NO Mayor and LA Gov't is talking, which makes it sound like this will make Katrina look like nothing compared to what Gustav may bring, my guess is that they know the Levee's won't hold and probably will experience catastrophic failure that will take much longer then it did the first time around to repair them, if the citizens even come back after what may occur.
Hopefully it won't be as bad as its shaping up but its looking unlikely it will weaken enough before hitting.
Earlier in the week I saw an interview with a credible-seeming guy who was with the corps of engineers, working in some higher-level capacity on the levees surrounding New Orleans. He had a very difficult time answering a question as to whether the levee system could withstand a direct hit from a category 2 hurricane.
"...Are those comments in reference to the potential catastrophe of breeching the NOLA levees and devastating the city again or are they a general 'wherever this storm hits will be completely wiped off the map and we won't see another Gustav in our lifetimes'?..."
I think the former. Gustav is undeniably an extremely dangerous storm, but I don't think it ranks as the most-dangerous "on-paper" of all time at this point. The catastrophy from Gustav would occurr if it strikes New Orleans as a high-end 3 or greater (models now are generally tending toward a high-end 4), its storm surge inundating the city yet again. Not to mention, there must be thousands of structures that are not as sound as they were pre-Katrina that would be affected more severely by not only the force of the surge, but by the winds, which could be much higher than Katrina's.
I think it is fair to say that Gustav is absolutely on its way toward being the costliest natural disaster in US History, when one takes into account the oil rigs that it'll plow through on its way to the Gulf Coast. But regardless of that, people on the coast or who are at elevations less than 30 feet or so need to "get their butts out." I don't that can be over-stated, but it is probably a bit hyperbolic to say it's the "biggest" storm we'll see in our lifetime.
"say it's the "biggest" storm we'll see in our lifetime"
That has yet to happen and it won't be Gustav.
Thanks for the answers! I think it's great that they are being so proactive and I understand his reasoning for it (whatever the reasons behind the Katrina response, I'm sure it was an emotional blow to Nagin to loose so many people in the city he is trying to protect) but for me, who lives far from any coastline, I wasn't sure how much of his urgency derived from the storm itself or it's potential consequences for NOLA. Either way, as you all said, it's a dangerous storm and people need to move. Thanks again! I'm an amateur weather buff and absolutely love the site and it's comments!
Ya Heidi ! ... Well said... It is going to be interesting to see how serious the New Orleans officials responded "levee issues"after Katrina.. Like Cors said in earlier posts.. the media is powerful.. I know FEMA is already in the vicinity and are preparing "as good as can be expected" attm.. I should be in contact with Steve "SWS FEMA-dispatched in ground zero" and have details on our site as this unfolds, and communication capabilities allow.
It appears that Gustav has weakened a bit for now, as the central pressure is 960 MB. The eye seems to be a bit "wobbly" attm. Still, strengthening will occur in the next few hours back to a solid Cat 4. I think Heidi's comments in the last two pargraphs of the last post are absolutely correct.
Reed and team: Hope the roads are cooperating with your travels. Be safe, and we will be tuning in to your live feeds. Hopefully cummunication infrastructure holds up for the streaming capabilities. Most importantly? Be safe mates