News DetailGustav headed for New Orleans???
Posted At: August 29, 2008 @ 8:49 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
The early morning GFDL is predicting a landfall near New Orleans on Monday with winds of category 3 strength (see figure below), which is an absolute worst case scenario track for Hurricane Gustav. The few days before landfall as predicted by the GFDL looks eerily similar to that of Katrina, with the western eyewall passing right over New Orleans, and the eastern eyewall over the MS Gulf Coast. It should also be realized that these dynamical models are often conservative in their intensity forecasts, as they often under-forecast the strength of rapidly intensifying storms, and this explosive strengthening appears likely over the next few days with Gustav. The official NHC forecast has the storm making landfall in the swamplands south of New Orleans Monday evening with a slow-down is expected just prior to landfall. It must be realized that substantial error exists in tropical cyclone forecast this far in advance, so there is still major uncertainty in any forecast. TVN is planning an intercept of Hurricane Gustav and will be leaving this weekend for a target somewhere along the central Gulf Coast. Stay tuned for updates
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Good luck with the intercept, hope you get some good footage, stay safe. I really have an eeire feeling bout this one.
wow Gustav is just back over water and seems to be reintensifying rapidly. hold on to your butts folks....
Gee I hope not. There still trying to build New Orlands back again.
Kind of knew it would be the target... Well team TVN... ? Bring your scuba gear, a couple of inflatable boats, and get some good footage.. And most importanty... !!! Be ready to do disaster relief.
Then "B" line to the East side of Florida... Hanna is chasin Gustav, may be some kind of communication going on between the two of them.. "Ha Ha" very funny! Back at ya WolxHound.... Cheers
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR
Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana
....the time is now!
Well.. As of this afternoon my partner in SWS has been dispatched to the target area for his duties in FEMA. Actual departure times are unclear attm. He is in an "alerted" status. He will be in touch with us as services allow in the field. Steve Korper... "You are the man".
Steve's experience in "second to none" in this area as he was in for Katrina for over 2 weeks. His expertise in the maps and geography in the time of disaster in the New Orleans area is a huge asset for his requested presence. We will be releasing a national press release late this afternoon
TVN katrina video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Duz-2v1Omvc
Don't get yourself killed chasing this thing, don't be surprised if you get a Cat 5. One way or another, I think that Gustav will cause major damage to the Gulf Coast. Louisiana Gulf Cost residents: I think that if you live anywhere from Mobile, Alabama westward to Slidell, Louisiana, you need to be ready to evacuate, depending on the track of Gustav. If you live anywhere from Slidell westward to Lafayette, Louisiana you need to evacuate and be gone by noon on Sunday. From Lafayette westward to Lake Charles, Louisiana, you need to be ready to evacuate depending on Gustav's track. And, most importantly, if you live in New Orleans, or anywhere else in Louisiana at, within twenty feet above, or below sea level, you need to evacuate as well. That's just my opinion. The storm's track may change at any time, and for official info visit www.hurricanes.gov . Ok I'm done now. L8rs.
Cors.. Thanks or the link. I am sittin here scratching my head... What is the purpose of being in ground zero for a hurricane? Unless there is some significant data or really getting humanitarian relief handled... I am missing something here... These cyclones are just 90 to 120 miles plus diameter, spinning hydro/wind... Hi-speed rain machines !!! Guys help me out here.. What is TVN's objective for being in.. ? What is the focus of what you're trying to accomplish?
Media is a powerfull thing JC. my country had one of the first global published disasters and in result help flooded in after the real flood and some people actually profited from all the relief the world had given us..now if this disaster wouldnt made it to the global media im sure we would have received much less support.
Nice Cors. And besides, this will be the perfect opportunity for TVN to test the rocket.
A little off topic but I just stumbled on this tornado vid from spain, it seems pretty recent and it's good quality:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qlFCr6nRLM&NR=1
Cors... Media is.. CNN... and others. "too many" Experience on this end can relate... (I am from Southern California) Are you from New Orleans?
As in past posts.. I really hope in the 3 years time since Katrina, the media has done enough so the levee system and plumbing is ready, strong, and updated... BIGTIME. To your statement... "Media is a powerful thing" it is hopefull to say the least that all city and disaster preperdeness in New Orleans has been maximized. If a Cat 4 to 5 hits this area.. Well.. all of us will be tuning in.
As noted earlier, One of our team members " Steve- FEMA Official" is being dispatched to the area "again".. Knowing firsthand the facts of the Katrina disaster.. The media has no clue on some of the data in the hands of these officials. Steve is my wingman, so I am thankful for what I know and what I will get firsthand form this possible disasterous event.
TVN and the rocket mate! New sport in the Gulf! Its Eyewall Kitesurfing.. Complete with lightweight air tanks and pressure regulated helmet apperatus. "there he is.. JC Knieval.
Katrina wasn't exactly known for speedy support by government agencies LOL.
roob, FEMA personnel was in early. State and city coordination of logistics and such was lacking big time... post event review and logs of data by officials "in the field" reveal this..
Hey all.. excuse my typing skills.. they're terrible.. I hope my points get across, and my mispells that occur from time to time.. well only human mates...
JC, why would you question the purpose of chasing a hurricane?
Don't you think that posting things like that here are a little off the nature of this site?
Extreme weather dude! Its just what we do here.
Well said Strike!
Strike, Because that is what I am questioning.. period.. If its off nature.. Then I guess Hiedi would let me know.. If thats the case? Then fine.. I will post elsewhere... I really appreciate the TVN team. I enjoy Reed's enthusiasm and Joel's approach. I just relate to what I have seen out of these guys.
Again.. Is there data gained in being in the "ground zero" of a hurricane? Hey mate.. I have been in three of them... The behave the same. I do not need to participate in a bit of reality in why I ask a question. Carry on Strike ! Cheers
Gustav is now a cat 3
Sustained winds of 185 km/h, cat 3 on the SS scale, heading just west of New Orleans, 6-9m storm surge predicted. Possibly intensification to cat 4.
Katrina was only Cat 3 when it made landfall.
Jc, your comments are absolutely correct, I don't think there's any meaningful data to be gained by rushing into a cyclone with the cameras rolling.
But I don't believe the chasers are simply after data, it's just the lure of extreme weather and the possibility of getting some good (possibly saleable) footage.
I know if there were a cyclone in my neck of the woods I'd want to be there, just for the excitement (maybe after experiencing 3 of them they are not so exciting to you :)). I know these things aren't a game - but extreme weather, chaos, human beings on the edge - some folks are just drawn to that.
Thanks Smudge.. and I respect and appreciate that as well..
This link shows the eye showing good definition..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/EVENTS/EG34.JPG
Okay, I think I was wrong earlier. Residents of Louisiana from Baton Rouge westward to roughly the Texas/Louisiana border, and the City of New Orleans, GET THE HECK OUT OF THERE!!!!! I think this will be, at the max, a Category 5 hurricane with pressure at a minimum of 890 mbar. L8rs.
The latest GFDL model run has Gustav hitting just to the west of New Orleans as a Category 5 storm. If this verifies, we will probably be seeing the most catastrophic hurricane event in US history. Hopefully everyone prepares and evacuates as though the GFDL *will* verify, in order to prevent massive loss of life.
The HWRF has Gustav hitting much farther west on the Louisiana coastline as a Cat. 3 and skirting the coastline westward along the Texas side of the Gulf. It's been showing this scenario for several days.
Gustav is now a category 4 Hurricane. This is worrisome.
Cat 4 next outlook...
its been amazing watching gustav grow. so far forecasts have been spot on. current winds @ 145mph and rising. cat5 here we come.....
best line i've heard so far comes from Dr. Steve Lyons:
"This storm could really produce a significant surge due to the shallow waters outside of this bow-shaped region in Western Cuba. Thankfully, I don't think anyone lives there."
Really? No one? Here is a map of the area:
http://www.cubamapa.com/province-map-havana-map.htm
Anyone see any signs of human development? Yeah, me neither.
Reminds me of this recent release from the onion:
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/hurricane_bound_for_texas_slowed