News DetailDolly heading toward Northeast Mexico!
Posted At: July 22, 2008 @ 9:30 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Hurricanes
Tropical Storm Dolly continues to slowly strengthen, but explosive intensification did not occur last night like we thought it might. Convection developed near the center of the cyclone but a well developed central dense overcast could not quite materialize. However, the last few satellite scans look like the storm may finally be getting its act together, with rapid intensification still likely before landfall. As expected, the forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the left, with a predicted landfall early Wednesday morning just south of the Texas border in Northeast Mexico.
Even though Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a wind of 60 knots (assumed to be over-estimated due to heavy precipitation), the intensity in the 7 am CDT advisory was set at 50 kts.. But I would not be surprised if Dolly is upgraded to a minimal hurricane by the next advisory. TVN Stream 1 is still thinking very seriously about intercepted this storm - so stay tuned for updates.
Even though Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a wind of 60 knots (assumed to be over-estimated due to heavy precipitation), the intensity in the 7 am CDT advisory was set at 50 kts.. But I would not be surprised if Dolly is upgraded to a minimal hurricane by the next advisory. TVN Stream 1 is still thinking very seriously about intercepted this storm - so stay tuned for updates.
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Hate to Hijack hurricane thread but Saskatchewan is looking very interesting this afternoon and tomorrow as well Priairie Storm Pred.Center out look for today:ERN PRAIRIES...WITH SFC LO AND TROF DRIFTING INTO SK TDY, COULD SEE SOME AFTN TSTMS DVLP. ORIENTATION WILL FOLLOW THE JET AS THE UPR TROF DIGS AND MUCH OF SERN AND CENTRAL SK EXTENDING NEWD INTO MB ARE THE PRIME AREAS TDAY. MN AREA OF POTN SVR TSTMS SHOULD BE THRU THE SRN HALF OF SK. GEM DATA SHOWING STRONGEST LIFT, AND SHEAR NR YQR AND PNTS NEWD THIS AFTN. PORTIONS OF QU'APPELLE, HUMBOLT, KAMSACK AND YORKTON ARE IN THE BIGGEST THREAT AREA. LI'S XPCTD TO RUN -4 TO -7. MODEL CAPES OF OVER 2500 J/KG AND 0-3 KM EHI VALUES OF OVER 3. SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH THE USUAL HVY RAIN, LARGE HAIL AND STG WIND GUSTS AND EVEN TORNADIC STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. DAYSHIFT SHUD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON AREAS OF INITIATION, TIMING AND EXTENT, BUT HAVE GONE WITH SOME RISKS OF SVR IN PUBLICS.
As well the models look tomorrow like it maybe actice east if the same area I am hoping to chase one if not both of these days but have appointments that cannot be missed that may screw things up we shall see as the day goes on. Sorry again for the hijack
Hurricane Hunters... ? Its Mexico for sure.. It should pick up some strength for sure.
ROB... Did you ever find the link for actual reports in your neck of the woods? It seems that Canadian prediction center is not so detailed on this stuff. You would know a a resident. Looking forward to your reply.
BTW.. We have a couple of donuts " Fausto, Genevieve" in the Pacific.. Looks to be a path out to sea.. We have large surf forcasted for the next 10 days as far as the models.. Yep Yep Yep!!!
Rob, yes I have noticed this as well, but as you know we have our eyes set on the gulf (way closer). Stream 1 will make its final decision in about 3 hours!!! Dolly is currently north of NHC's track and looks to be moving just west of north. Also, Dolly is showing up on Brownsville's Radar and it seem that the eye wall should be formed withing the next 6 to 9 hours. This is also concurrent with an explosion of deep convection in the center and significant mass evacuation aloft. With these factors at play coupled with the 85 degree water Dolly could easily explode to a Cat 2 over night. It seem that at this time of the year hurricanes tend to do unforecastable things, so we are hoping for the best.
Our current target is South Padre Island, but the island might be closed once we get there. I will post a blog if we decide to journey out!
Well JC I just got off the phone with EC and sadly they do not have a a way to get storm reports through the season like the SPC has more of just a year end total avail. at the end of the year. We really need to do some changes up here in Canada as far as severe weather our radar is sad to say the least which is why I went to the mobile threat net I can pick up US radar on itup to 100m north of the us border which helps a ton otherwise it can be painful relying on the EC radar to chase storms. Anyway sorry man many calls no luck finding what we where looking for. Good thing you reminded me I had forgotten I was gonna do that. GL and be safe all if ya decide to chase the hurricane !!
Let it happen Matt. It looks like it could slow down just enough to hit at daylight Wednesday morning as well.
We need some tvn representation down there. Stream 1 steadfast, aggressive, efficient, compassionate.. surge south
If this pushes just a little further north the shape of texas could make it hit somewhere between corpus christi and s padre this would also give it a little more time to intensify! we went to dallas then heard it was projected to hit northern mexico as weak cat 1 and decided to turn around will be very very mad if it hit corpus christi or s padre as cat 3 tho!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
It's been too long without one of those. I really wish I could chase this!! So close to home!! asdfjlkabsdfj
Looking at BR248 on GR3 out of Brownsville, it looks like Dolly has had a considerable increase in convection around the storm center over the past three hours. She also appears to be moving much slower than she was yesterday, with a target looking to me currently right along the Texas/Mexico border, if not a bit further North.
Could this be a sign that she's about to go through a rapid intensification process? We can only wait and see.
Well right now the forecast track is basicly right on the border. And it does look very impressive on GR3.
Based on what GRLevel3 shows, Dolly could hit MUCH further north than forecast. And yeah, she looks awesome on radar right now.
Does anyone have the links to the relevant radar?
Thanks
You're right Connor!
I've been watching the radar periodically since 10 AM, and she was before on more of a WNW track, and has since changed to a more NW-NNW track!
Anyone happen to have info on Fallon, NV???
Heard there was at least 1 tornado touched down over there - and now I can't get ahold of a friend who lives there.
looks like Dolly's beginning to form a visible eye!
I wouldn't be surprised if she was a hurricane by the next one or two latest advisories.
No suprise..Dolly a hurricane
Link:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
Ahhh I just saw what you posted, Rob...I thought nothing was supposed to happen around here tomorrow?!
Dolly just became 2nd Hurricane of the 2008 Hurricane season.
I also heard that Dolly will make land fall any hour and will cause lots of flooding.
Thats not good.
Adam, of course Dolly will cause flooding... That's what hurricanes do! It will likely be a little bit longer before Dolly makes landfall, as more slowing is forecast. Residents of the southern Texas coast should be on high alert... Dolly still has plenty of time to strengthen even more.
Thanks Rob for the info. I searched it everywhere with no avail... EC kind of behind on that stuff. How are things looking for you up there? Just re arrange the meetings.. Down here we have an escape "in So Cal" "I am in a board meeting" Ha Ha.. surfBOARD.. Its funny but it works...
It looks like Dolly still does not have a visible eye..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/EVENTS/EG31.JPG
Looks like it will for sure pick up intensity over the warm water. Some of the past hurricanes really picked up power on the stall or slowdown. S Padre Island is pretty low lying. You'all chasin that be prepared for the tide surge.. BE SAFE !
WOW-look at all the convection from Dolly this afternoon! She's exploding!
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
This is a link to great satellite imagery! Change the settings to a 30 image loop animation, then click on Dolly's location and wait for the animation to load. you will see it begin around when she had a noticeable eye structure, all the way through to where she is now-tons of deep convection taking place!
Man Dolly is looking amazing on radar. This is my first Hurricane on GR3 and its amazing. Ive been saving radar images and am going to make a little video tomorrow afternoon.
lol I've seen many hurricanes/tropical storms on GR3-such as Dean from Puerto Rico Radar last year.
The radar presentation was incredible then.
Same for Felix-just barely in range of BR248 lol
Well this is my first Hurricane season with GR3. And the first time ive taking the time to look at one
Good luck Matt Chatelain, Matt Van Every, Curtis McDonald and Daniel Betten! Be sure to bring enough gas and yes Dolly looks dominating on GR.
Category 1 hurricane Dolly...
BRING IT DOLLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Off topic, but...it's coming, the severe tstorm is coming :X. Wish I had someone to take me chasing, ahhhh
Matt van Every, you guys on the road towards Dolly now? Nice eye showing on GR now.
Cors, yes we are!!! The radar looks like a classic setup for SPI to be slammed by the strongest part of the storm. The pressure continues to fall and the motion is slowing down. This is prime for a daytime intercept by TVN. We will be streaming once there is enough light to.