News DetailO' Canada
Posted At: June 29, 2008 @ 10:51 PM
Posted By: Matthew Van Every
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Hello all! The GFS is looking very interesting for next weekend. There is currently a deep upper level low slowly moving East for North America. When this trough reaches the Rockies it will most likely intensify creating 50kt 500mb winds. If this occurs, there will be plenty of wind shear and moisture for strong supercells in Southern Canada and Northern U.S. This is a situation that we are monitoring and need to be ready to deploy.
Also, we are keeping an eye on the upper low just to the west of this one because it too could get real interesting.
Check out the 500mb winds for the U.S. Independence Day and that following Saturday.
This would be a great way to celebrate our Independence Day!!!
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We may wait until the parent trough ejects into Western Canada shortly after the passage of that initial wave. It looks like the moisture will be there in Alberta, all though I bet it will be shallow. Moisture will not be a problem when the main wave ejects.. Right now we're planning on leaving for Canada next weekend.
Awesome Reed! Hope everything continues to look good for Independance Day. It's been looking good for a few model runs now I've noticed. Can't wait for you guys to come up north here. You should come here in the Winter to feel our vicious temperatures, because you don't know what cold is until you've been here in Canada in late December/ early January.
Enjoy your stay here in Canada. Good luck on your trip here.
lol they dont call it winterpeg for nothing....lol
Good for you people in Canada!
I want a DRY fourth anyway
Kenny
Oh yea it is cold in winter, still thawing out from the -46 late Jan. I look forward to the possibility of seeing my town on the live feed woot.
hopefully the second week in july thing will work out here reed...we are long overdue for an outbreak
If this pans out, this will be a great trip it seems like. I've got a question. Why do systems seem to intensify once they hit the Rockies? Is it the elevation and air?
Charles, it is a bit complicated but it has to do with the elevation change. For simplicity, a low to intensifies by spinning faster. Think of it this way, when an ice skater is spinning with their arms out they spin slow but as they bring there arms in they spin faster. Apply this conservation of angular momentum to the atmosphere. When the low advances up the mountains it "flattens out" and slows down. This allows it to dig a little further south, which is important. Then the low keeps moving downslope this causes the low to stretch vertically and allows it to spin faster.
This is extremely simple but a very important factor. Without the Rockies we would not get tornadoes in the Plains.
A SIDE NOTE: It is also possible to take the distance from wave to wave and calculate where mountains should be. On average it matches up very close to where mountains are around the world. So, mountains are a major player in the worlds weather.
Thanks Matt, your right it is complicated, but I'll understand more as I keep working my way towards college and study the weather.
so fitting to say the next line from our national anthem..
We stand on guard for thee ;)
Can't wait until you guys are up here! Should be eventful for sure =)
HEY GUYS! .... LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR UPCOMING TRIP TO CANADA...UNFORTUNETELY I WAS AWAY WHEN YOU WERE UP HERE LAST YEAR..... IF YOU ARE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA I'VE GOT A COLD CASE OF BEER FOR YOU BOYS!!! KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK!!
If the long range GFS comes even close to verifying, Sask, Manitoba and North Dakota will have tubes dancing all over the place in 2 weeks.
What's the latest on this? Forecasts for most Canadian prairie towns through Wednesday the 9th are mostly sunny, hot with a few showers...