News DetailTornado Watch issued for N Texas/S Oklahoma
Posted At: May 7, 2008 @ 1:52 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
We're currently waiting here in Gainesville, TX, as a tornado watch was just issued for the area. Looking at the low-level jet (visually), it appears relatively backed in our location, with near due-southerly flow. This is very favorable for strong tornadoes if it remains until the storms arrive. At least two teams will be streaming live to the tracker!! According to the weather station, the dewpoint here is 67-68 - so clearly moisture will not be an issue. Stay tuned for updates..
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Here we go again.......
Reed, what do you think about the tornado threat in the area around the Moss Lake? Are the Reimanns in trouble?
That area should be upgraded to high risk.I have noted clouds clearing from west to east.Also very cold temps aloft are spreding east under the clearing.Given intence 80kt south westerly jet under strong backed winds and intense low level shear with a low level jet.If the sum comes out it may add cape but it will add mixing which will lower dew points.I strongly think there should be strong tornados as storms intersect moist axis
Good luck to everyone chasing out there!! Can't wait to watch the live streaming!
Reed, I'll be watching the feed for the one. Hope you capture some spectacular footage. Good luck bro.
Pick me up.....
am not a huge fan of SPC banking on NE TX. I thought all day long that the area to be concerned with was over/just west of DFW. There is currently clear air west of ABI and the dryline is set up over that region. The upper low is tracking slowly east. SPC is wrong on this one, and the area that is to be the most active is from Stephenville to Ardmore, which includes the DFW metro.. I surely hope that nobody is getting sucked into the SPC hole in PAris Texas...
Question. When Reed says "Looking at the low-level jet (visually)", what does that mean? Does it mean he can see the jet visualy - like clouds moving fast in lower levels?
Those storms in oklahoma texas border may get a tornado threat soon as winds are strongly backed across all areas in the slight and moderate risk area.Even though that storm is not in the main moist axis.Sun is coming out which may destabilize air for explosive development since a upper through or cold pocket is very cold.
Tornado reported in texas by law enforcemnt in haskell
Alberto, your grammar is torture to look at.
Joey,
I think Reed meant by looking at the 850 mb winds per SPC mesoanalysis page, which is referred to as the "low-level jet." When he says it's "backed," he means counter-clock wise, which is good, giving more directional shear and more turning needed for supercells.
Sometimes you can see the low level clouds quickly moving to the north, perhaps that's what he meant also.
Upper-level divergence now spreading over the warm sector along the Red River, with moisture converging there also...and low-level lapse rates increasing along the river and S/SW of there. There's a storm firing near Henrietta, and more agitated Cu to the south of there...
Strong tornados will occur if cape can reach 2,000 jkg.That is what is needed.Both supercells still will be severe with shear extreme and now 1,200 cape near dallas
I know it may be a little too early to tell but I live in the very northeast corner of Alabama. Is it likely we will be under a tornado threat tomorrow evening? Or just some strong thunderstorms. I was in my house when it was completely destroyed by an EF-4 tornado that hit in Feb-so I'm VERY weather aware! I try to go in a different direction if I hear its going to be a tornado threat. If any of you know, please give me your opinion.
Brandy Arnold I think there should be hail, damaging winds, spotty tornados.Cape may reach 2,000 jkg.There is a pretty strong mid and upper winds with a jet.Also the low level shear might not be so strong as we should not have much of backed winds.Looking at it right now I am calling it a normal severe expisode for May.But this amy change into more bad.Only if cape is stronger and shear then forcasted now.
Alberto, remember to limit your post and try to share correct information. A certain CAPE value is not a good indicator for tornadoes.
Brandy, I live in LA...Lower Alabama. Which tornado hit your house? That was the early morning of Feb 6th? I have seen damage pics from Brian Peters from abc 3340...incredible. There is a threat for Northern Alabama for severe weather tomorrow. The threat looks to be during the afternoon, so at least it won't be in the middle of the night.
JY-Yes, it was the early morning of Feb. 6th. I'm TERRIFIED OF BAD WEATHER. Please remember Alberto, I'm no weather expert so I have NO IDEA what CAPE means..haha I just know the basics like - - thunder, lightening, wind, ToRnAdO, etc. LOL
JY my 4 mth old and I were in the house when it hit. We both were air lifted to Huntsville hospital. That was the most terrifying morning of my life. Please keep me updated with your opinion on the weather here tomorrow. I'm VERY ancey....
Alberto, please take the time to spell out your words. Your grammar is terrible, and I know I'm not the only one who thinks this. 'Severe Expisode?'. And you post so much. Reed already mentioned this...back off for a bit. You sound weather aware, but it seems that sometimes you use exact sentences/phrases that the SPC use in their Mesoscale Discussions/Watches etc. We don't need to know CAPE updates either, and we can read the SPC reports. I think the only problem is that you post too much! Sorry! I hope you don't take offence to this. I usually stay quiet, but all the posts by one person has to stop.
Cape means more instability when you have that there more energy for stroms and higher chances of tornados/strong tornados if shear is right as well.For example if you get 1,000 cape and strong shear there may be tornados but not that strong.Storms are blowing up on the dryline cape may get higher and perfect shear suggest a strong severe threat.
Brandy, I can't even imagine what you went through that morning. As you know N. Alabama doesn't see as many tornadoes as the Plains, but the intensity of tornadoes are higher. Keep up with your local tv station. I enjoy James Spann and his crew. Also your NOAA weather radio is very important if the power goes out.
Alberto, seriously, you may be getting blocked in the near term if you do not spend an extra minute to correct your writing. Most of your posts fit in the forum.
Yeah but nobody knows that, Alberto.
Brandy Arnold, too bad a tornado wrecked your house. And an EF-4 at that. I've barely ever seen a tornado my whole life and I'm TERRIFIED of them. I hope your 4-month old is alright. Here is a word of advice, though: If a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch is issued for your area and the wording happened to mention "Particularly Dangerous Situation" or PDS, all heck is gonna break loose. DEPART FROM THE AREA. Ok well good luck with....you know, getting another house and stuff, hope nothing bad happens with this outbreak.
Which vehicle is Reed in on the chase page?
Cindylouwho, Reed is with tornadovideos.net stream.
Alberto, so your thinking we could see a tornado out here possibly??
Jy...where can i find james spann? I hear him on Rick and Bubba (radio jockeys) but where can I find his team? Do they have a website...I'm sure they do but what is it?
Arnold for now I think a normal May severe weather day 5 tornados, lots of hail, wind damage.
Man, that sucks! I dread it already.
James Spann is a tv meteorologist in Birmingham for ABC 3340. You may get Huntsville tv stations. If that's the case, just keep up with your local station and just be weather aware. For now, all you can do is prepare, but the likelihood that you will see another tornado is drastically low.
A tornado was reported in Wyoming.Now large funnel cloud of the ground.If it reaches back it may be a strong tornado.Amazingly no severe area at all was issued there.
Thanks Dick for answering my question,
It seems we will see some strong super cells when the low hits the sheer. Its a waiting game now!
I STILL want to know when Matt is going to post pics of the hail-damaged vehicle. :))
Look reed might have caught a tornado a white rope extending to the ground.
So was that Reed or Joel that was just on the TVN stream taking a leak in front of the camera? LOL!
I'm pretty sure that "white rope" is just a reflection in the windshield...
Does shreveport look like it might be under the gun?
Yeh shreveport,louisiana will get a tornado watch soon based on latest mcd in spc.Tornados likely due to backed winds at surface.
Please tell me when the time frame would be
I live in Allen, Texas. Huge towers North of us
tornadio warnings 2 now for where chasers are.Also oklahoma storm.
Reed, tornado on the ground in NW OKC!
oklahoma city tornado warned.Chasers are under tornado warning now in texas.
www.kfor.com. OKC police reporting tornado at wilshire and nw highway
just got a warning here in Collin county....lots of rotation
Tornado on the ground comfirmed by multiple sources law enforcement and chasers oklahoma city.
When is the tornado threat going to reach shreveport? Im worried.
Tyler, just keep up with the forecast in your local area.
www.news9.com live streaming
Rotation; Hail north of DFW in northern Collin Co. around Town of Melissa & Anna, Tx 5:22pm heading east very fast toward Lake Lavonne.
Things look slow in the DFW area, what does everyone think about the chances for later tonight around 7:9:00pm central?
Storms in texas to get very strong soon with strong tornados possible low level jet is getting stronger and instability is spreading north arkansas north east texas louisiana to expireance supercells with tornados likely and hail 2.5 inches and 70mph winds.
Looks like Reed might have a live one - his stream is frozen on a bank of clouds, and the left looks like it might be a tornado...
When? I live in shreveport
Tyler, there's a storm aprox 20 to 30 minutes to the west of you, heading your way. There's no warnings currently attached to it yet.
Wow! Looks like the TVN team has a live one now.
Tyler, Shreveport is under a tornado watch until midnight. A tornado watch means that you need to watch the sky. A tornado warning means that you need to take action. There is no magic time that Shreveport will see a storm if at all. That is why it's best to keep up with the weather through a NOAA Weather Radio, or a local TV station.
The more you know about the weather, the chance for you to stay safe increases.
The storms to your west are under severe limits.
Tyler, here's some sites to help you stay on top of things...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php (This one's good for helping tell what direction the storms are heading ;)
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php (shows issued warnings & watches)
wow...DFW threat is pretty much gone, dew point crashed quickly!
Have a friend on N McCarthur in the OKC just on the west side of Lake Hefner. She said windows shook and roof was rattling (she is upstairs) and she got the guts to go look out a window and saw a funnel ON the lake, water about half way up to the sky but she did not see a well defined condensation cloud, just the water and a small funnel above it. She is ok, minor damage at her apts, it just missed her. Looks like some straight line winds and atleast 2 EF0 touchdowns they are saying
Greatest threat for now northeast texas louisiana its northern part including shreveport that is where strongest cape resides strongest shear storms are showing mid and upper level rotation.
reed im watching yu live i see u stopped at a gas station whats your location
So, is TV.net stream currently at a convenience store in Bonham, Tx?
TVN guys- Looks like the storm you guys were chasing fizzled out.
The radar seems to show that.
Mr T
So, is TV.net stream currently at a convenience store in Bonham, Tx?
i was thinkin the same thing
screen went black cries her eyes out
it would be neat if reed would notify us and say the chase is over on the TVN LIVE FEED
tom tackett is that you
tvn stream 1 is traveling
tvn is idle
So, I guess that's the fickle nature of storm prediction. It seemed like all of the variables were right. Does anyone know what prevented those storms from organizing into more severe storms? I know that there was alot of cloud cover maybe needed more surface heating?
Bust Bust Bust. Like I stated earlier... SPC really over did tornado % today. Thanks again SPC for your hard work... NE Texas... jesus.... frickin kidding me.
Im chasing today I don't know my exact location because I am in the middle of no where but I am somewhere around tyler texas probably 20 miles southeast watching some huge thunderstorms. Tornado warning with spotted funnel west of me I'm headed that way.
Reed and tvn,
Really thought you were on to a good one. Just did not pan out..
I stuck to my thoughts on central OK from yesterday... Looks like that was the best probable..
Good ole nature always thows some unique curves. Thanks for the coverage of your journeys. It is always exciting when there is potential out there
jb
Hey everyone. I live in Northeast Alabama. How bad do y'all anticipate our weather to get here tomorrow? Open for ALL opinions. You all know alot more than I do about weather.
Im scared we have a severe thunderstorm warning that says " THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATUION, TAKE COVER IF IN THIS STORM'S PATH AND PREPARE EMEDIATELY FOR WINDS OVER 80 MPH." what do i do?
hey alberto, tornado warning for crawford county, arkansas, and a few other counties bordering the county i live in. im in fayetteville arkansas, washington county, do you think its strong enough to reach the elevation of fayetteville?
Thought things were about to go nuts as we dove south through the storm just NE of Dallas. As we came through the core though, we could tell that the storm was outflow dominant. The cold rain cooled air had rushed out and choked off all of the inflow. Shortly thereafter, the storm totally fizzled. Another close call, but in the end in tornado.
The tornadoes farther north in the OKC metro area were what are called cold core tornadoes. The formation of these types of tornadoes is different that the supercell tornadoes you usually see. Cold core tornadoes are usually much weaker and short lived.
Looks like we'll have a day or two down before our next chase.
Oh, and sorry about pissing in front of the dash cam... forgot it was there.
Joel
Alberto hasn't posted anything since 6:53 maybe JY got through to him. Anyone have any thoughts on the severe potential for sw ks tommorow. Im tired or hail.
The storms from last night did you in today, they hit Dallas around 10am and kept the cload cover in the area. Sun never had a chance to really destabilize the atmosphere. Thank god for that my 86 year old mother was really worried about todays storms the local forecasters had her going.
"im tired OF hail"
this is a screenshot of the video i made from my hotel in norman. (it's a good thing my tv warned me about a severe storm approaching or i would have slept through the whole thing :P )
I'm dominating!
http://www.koco.com/slideshow/news/16193434/detail.html
mwahahaha
"Oh, and sorry about pissing in front of the dash cam... forgot it was there."
Lol, A few more incidents like that, and TVN can release it's own dvd: "TVN's storm chasing bloopers"
:))
And ask matt when he's going to post the pics??? (rofl)
lmao big time. nice goin joel good thing i wasn't watchin at the time
CORS!!! AWESOME!
I got a video of me chasing an armadillo tonight! :-D
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that I got sprayed by a skunk this afternoon, too. Okay, now back to the weather!
Heidi wanna see that video sooo bad! =) did you upload it already?
lol thats just too funny joel
and good job cors on photo today
Just for the record Joel, the entire office at Weathernews pretty much walked by my computer when you were drawing your name on the gate about 3pm or so...
Joel you just made a new name for Storm Chasers you are a Storm Squrter.
Just out of curiosity, what ever happened to that bright orange camera probe? Has TVN tried it out yet? I'm extremely interested in knowing what it would come back with as far as footage goes.
The newest weapon in the battle against tornados! (no doubt a brainchild of the "skunkworks")
ROFLMBO!
Joel,
That was really funny. I was laughing sooo hard !!
Couldn't believe it.. A mans got to do what he's gonna do...
tom
Alberto:
It might be a good idea to understand some of the weather terminology that you are using(trying to use) in giving "updates" and information to others here on the site.
First of all... CAPE refers to Convective Avaialble Potential Energy and there are many "levels" associated with it. Examples would be:
Low level CAPE
ML CAPE
Downdraft CAPE....and so on. This measurement is derived from equations(simulated) or directly from a sounding and is noted as:
the conditionally unstable layer of the troposphere, the free convective layer (FCL), where an ascending air parcel is warmer than the ambient air. CAPE is measured in joules per kilogram of air (J/kg). Any value greater than 0 J/kg indicates instability and the possibility of thunderstorms. Generic CAPE is calculated by integrating vertically the local buoyancy of a parcel from the level of free convection (LFC) to the equilibrium level (EL):
On a sounding this would be the "positive area between the parcel's temp. line and the area around it called the virtual temp line. This is where the parcel is warmer than the area directly around it but is and generally located above the LFC...Level Of Free Convection.
In 18 years of chasing and 2 1/5 years of meteorology I would say that CAPE is OVERATED!
I would rather have good shear and with good SRH
than high CAPE and low shear.
Hope this helps in your future post(s) and understanding.
Lanny Dean
www.ExtremeChaseTours.com
Lanny, CAPE may be somewhat overrated, but I personally believe that a little bit more instability is all these storms needed today.
Every single shower and storm I saw rotated like crazy, but they just couldn't sustain long enough. I watched one storm near Paris, TX go up and down for well over an hour before switching off of it.
The storm that got tornado warned in Collin County today literally formed over my house! I got out of school at 4:15, and while running to my truck to head out I noticed a shadow passing over me, looked up, and saw the storm form right there. Unfortunately, with as much potential as it showed, the storms just couldn't get going.
Oh well... fairly dissapointing chase day, but at least we might FINALLY have an opportunity to chase on a weekend!
Lanny,
Well put.. Really makes sense.. I agree with your final statement: Better to have good shear and with good SRH. Checked out your site as well..
Where is Alberto anyway? He must be blogged out..
I need a chase......
Here is the video I made in Norman wednesday.
Wow! I'm glad so many people got to witness that. Maybe I'll make that my theme during each live chase.
CAPE and shear both play an integral part in supercell and tornado development. If you have an abundance of one but none of the other, you're not going to get supercells. In general, extreme CAPE can make up for low shear and vise versa. Many of the eastern US outbreaks occur in low CAPE high shear environments.
The energy helicity index (EHI) combines the two components into one number. 0-1 km EHI's greater than 2 or 3 mean that CAPE and low level shear are likely adequate for tornadoes. However, you need to check other things like deep layer shear, cap strength, and something to initiate convection.
Anyways, it's late and we've been on the road a lot in the past couple of weeks. I'm gonna crash and try to catch up on some sleep tonight. Good night to all...
Joel
Great video Cors!!!
We haven't had a chance to deploy the orange camera probe yet... We came close in Arkansas on May 2, when a wedge was about a mile to our southeast by we ran into a traffic jam on I-40 and the tornado became rain-wrapped and crossed the road a mile or so ahead of us. If the traffic wasn't there we would have deployed the probe for sure..
Has anyone seen pictures of the Collin Co storm when it was tornado warned? When we came through the core it looked really bad... entirely outflow dominant
thanks Reed ,you may buy me a beer tomorrow.
Yeah, obviously we could have used some more instability today in central oklahoma!
Thank you for answering Reed, and better luck next time. If the SPC is right, looks like you may have a better chance on Saturday.
Lanny & Joel,
Thanks for your technical data. It is really refreshing to read your take on what we all need to realize when we encounter a possibility.
You guys not only have on site experience, but you also have a sound background in meteorology. This kind of information really make this website an asset to review.
Thanks to your dedication and input.
JB
Alabama Weather - - Hey guys give me your opinion of how bad the weather will get out here in Northeast Alabama. Think we'll see a tornado threat the the VERY northeast corner of Alabama this afternoon...? Just let me know! THANKS IN ADVANCE!!!
Arnold,
It's possible given the degree of wind shear and instability across the area. I would say keep your weather radio on and stay updated for any rapid changes in the weather.
Hery Reed... Here is a short video of the Collin County storm.. The structure was odd in this storm.. This is the storm about 5 minutes before it went tornado warned..
Here is the link: copy and paste....
http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.search&SearchBoxID=SplashHeader&q=mckinney+texas+supercell&t=tvid
Sorry to post again....
but storms did have alot of trouble. As we all know..
Did anybody notice the lack of lightning in these storms? but not only that these storms had barely any Anvil to them.. The upper level winds were so fast they shearing the storm out. The tops on all these storms were low.. All under 35kft.
Earlier day convection and cloud cover put a big hit on the instability.. I think thats why there was such a lack of lightning and storms kept struggling.
We were chasing the North Texas storm as it developed over Parker County then into Denton & Tarrant counties before it took off to Collin. It was an interesting one... almost like it was toying with us. It'd build up and start doing something, and then just as soon as we'd stop and get out to shoot, it'd fall apart. Meso - we noticed, too, that there was virtually NO lightning. I think we saw one in that entire storm.
Stuart do you chase for CBS 11? in Dallas.
I chase for ABC 8 WFAA in Dallas..
Uh oh! A Rival!!! hahaha just kidding. That's cool!! I'm actually a producer here - but get the chance every now and then to get out there and do what I really love and have a passion for. Hopefully I'll get to do more of it!
Where's the chasers from Fox and NBC?? :-)
Posted By Reed | May 8, 2008 @ 2:23 AM #
Great video Cors!!!
"Has anyone seen pictures of the Collin Co storm when it was tornado warned? When we came through the core it looked really bad... entirely outflow dominant."
Not sure if this helps but I took some pics looking NE from DFW of that storm as it went over the town of Melissa & Anna about 5:22 pm. I've posted them at geocities.com/kcsuzyq Not sure how good they are to anyone but it was another awesome storm system to see for us as it was set against the big beautiful blue sky of Texas! Hope you can enjoy the pics! Stay SAFE Reed, Joel & teams! Thanks so much for all you do & for educating us all! We appreciate you all very much & really enjoy the pics & videos...especially the audio, HA!! Joel you keep us rolling lately! :-D