News DetailStrong tornadoes possible today over the Southern TX Panhandle!
Posted At: May 6, 2008 @ 12:09 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a strong vort max rotates out from the Desert Southwest this afternoon, isolated supercells will develop along the dryline west and southwest of Lubbock, TX. If these cells can remain discrete into the late afternoon/evening, then tornadoes will be likely as the low-level jet intensifies from the south. We're currently targeting an area between Lubbock and Hobbs, NM where the wind shear profiles look most ideal. I paid my data card bill, so the tracker and streaming video will be in full-force!! Stay tuned for updates..
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I've got some things I have to do in Lubbock, but I'll be heading out towards Brownfield in a little while. I probably won't be back on here till tonight but I linked a doppler for Lubbock for those of you monitoring the storms this afternoon.
I'm sitting here back in Norman studying for my dynamics test tomorrow morning.
Because of this, I can almost guarantee tornados for everyone going out.
Good luck guys!
Good luck to anyone out there!
Hello I have studied the shear and cape values I think greatest tornado threat will develop from south west cental nebraska to kansas to oklahoma texas panhandle to new mexico east.At least 2,000 cape is present everywhere somewhere its higher in places.As low level jet increases to 30 to 45kt. And flow backs and changes direction with height expect long tracking lp supercells with very large hail given lapse rates cape shear and isolated strong tornados.by the way a tornado watch is likely by mid afternoon!
Storms/supercells developing from nebraska to texas new mexico colorado shortly.Tcu towers or towering cumulus I have noted and showers developin with lightning as a boost comes from the south west isolated to scattered supercells will develop greatest tornado threat exists from kansas to oklahoma texas panhandle to nex mexico line and far south nebraska even a isolated stronger tornado can't be ruled out this evening.
Cinh or cap has weakened from nebraska kansas border to texas and new mexico line expect hail tornados developing form lp surface based supercells.I am now strong er for tornados in texas oklahoma border where stronger heating is occuing.Storms will explode once finall cap erodes next 20 to 40 minutes
LOL Dave about what you said about it being a good day because you are sitting at home. Doesn't it alays work that way? Good luck on your test
Good luck all you guys looking for storms today. Hope you see some action
So far going as i expected tornado watch issued for texas new mexico line and i expect more in kansas oklahoma.
Alberto, You seem to know what your talking about but do you really have to post all your forecast every 5 minutes. Yes there will be severe weather. We all pretty much know that by looking at the SPC. It gets pretty annoying reading all your crap. Oh yeah, Learn how to spell. How old are you btw?
What town you guys in gassing up?
Does anyone know anything about the StormHawk GPS system? And where to get one?
i have a new update on a tornado warned storm in texas near where reed is.Looks nasts with a preety strong updraft and strong low level rotation with a hook signature and moderate velocity couplet
Can anyone tell me why the team is heading NE at the moment, toward Lubbock?
Tornado on the ground in Nebraska! This could be the apocalypse!
tornado treat to increase until late evening with a low level jet incresing to 40 to 50 kt and stronger upper winds coming in from south west may increase effective shear 50 to 60kt and lowering heights may increase the isolated strong tornado threat as expected.
new tornado watch
Call me crazy, but WHY are both chase vehicles focusing on the storm north of (littlefield??) when there's another storm showing greater intensity south of Lubbock???
Pretty amazing to watch the live streaming video right now.
"You don't need to know", I was thinking the same thing.
There appears to be quite a significant lag between what the GPS tracker is showing and what the streaming video is showing, at least a 45 minute lag. I have been watching them drive on the same empty road for the past hour while according to the GPS, they have already intercepted a storm.
I'm telling you, they DEFINATELY need some sort of ground control to coordinate things! I'll bet right now they're so focused on that one storm, that they don't even realize that stornger one to the southeast even exists.....
They appear to be coordinated their efforts with Dr. Josh Wurman and the DOW. This cell looks like a LP supercell that has a mesocyclone associated with it. I can now see why they decided to intercept this storm. It is nice and isolated and has some rotation with it. Plus, the environment does appear adequate for tornadogenesis.
*****WE GOT A SIGHTING*******
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CURTIS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 638 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
MAYWOOD...OR NEAR CURTIS...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.
Low level jet to increase low level shear under backed winds at surface and upper winds coming in from the south west the moist boundary layer combo with dropping low local heights gives enhanced chances for tornados in texas new mexico line oklahoma panhandle
From nebraska to texas new mexico line tornados hail likely.Several outflows have set up.The approach of the upper jat and low level jet has increase vertical shear.with backed surface winds enhancing low level shear.Also noted the lowering heights.Tornados likely.Baseball hail in labuck,texas.
Amazing!They are under supercells from 3 sides the south one is capable of 4.5 hail estimated by my rader.Wow!Also tornados are possible with enhanced shear near outflows low level jet gettin strong.
ive been hooked on this site for quite a while now, i read through the posts constantly for updates. i have never posted a comment before now..and my first comment is...alberto...shut up already. You sound really smart and everything, until you mispell words like Lubbock. labuck??? that doesnt even rhyme. Did you try and sound it out? maybe instead of trying to type out every word thats coming out of your portable weather station, you can grab a speak and spell from back in 1978, and learn how to spell a little better. I take weather reports seriously, but not if they appear to be reported by a 10 year old. by the way, if you have any confirmation or sightings of hail, or tornados, please post it..otherwise..we can take the weather mans word for it as well. i love this site because its so up close, and real, people here seem to know the chasers personally...and i respect that..so dont waste peoples time with your, hard to understand, weather reports. if you havent noticed..you have been talking to yourself for the past half hour. Thanks...sorry for taking so much post space. Safe Chasings! where do i sign up for a tour?
Ditto on that one cberner... Alberto... ? wow! You are too effin much!
Well Alberto... After all the postings today by you....
Not a single tornado in any of your whatever predictions....
Been watching back and forth all of Reed's travels today... Thought he had a good path but looks like either hail or nada mucho happening before dark.
I was calling for some possibility near Clovis NM, does not look to exiting there either..
Looks to be good in central Ok tomorrow...
jb
Your wrong i think the texas new mexico storm is rotaing like a son of a god.Monster strom.A tornado warnings coming out you will see looks classic in structure!
yeah, im seeing the merger clearly north of plainview, looks like there are two other smaller cells on their way to join with the one north of palestine. there must be a large time differences between tracking and stream. The geography doesnt match. the storm south west of guthrie seems to be indicating a hook
Yeh Rain cooled air there were chasers are.Hail main threat but cell to the south of the cell they have rotation.New mexico storm is the best oif the day!
i agree with the good possibility of central oklahoma tomorrow. as of tonight, my uneducated guesses are going to be the texas panhandle, moving in to midwest oklahoma, there is a lot of growth taking place in west texas now. it should be interesting. take it easy everyone
I totally agree with cberner and jb twisterd...this is my first comment too (I LOVE this site a lot), and I've been noticing how alberto keeps posting these unnecessary, misspelled and inaccurate comments. Please alberto, we really appreciate your forecasts, but we just can't take you seriously with spelling like that. No one is a perfect speller, but damn! If you're not foreign you're either (A) a little kid or (B) incredibly stupid...and either one of those isn't good for storm forecasting. Sorry I just had to say something!! Peace lol keep it safe!
Still looking possible for the Clovis area.. Maybe a little south...
Just a shot before dark... Looks like the TVN guys are not getting much... Those guys are so dedicated.
Ran over 3700 k last week. Got some good ones after dark last thursday just north of Garrett KS..
Great lightning lit rotation and tornadoes (2)... First time seeing them backlit like that. Guess they did some damage in KC Mo area. Attended the Greensburg 1 year anniversary... Those people are makin progress. The pres showed up for the high school kids. GWB.... He really makes an effort.
By the way... Alberto... Were the hell did you learn to spell?
Jb
As expected those stroms and the one to south have werakened due to rain cooled air.Like I said there are 2 storms in the new mexico, Texas panhandle.Those are the 2 with the most rotation.Also all storms should organize into several mcs clusters overninght due to undirectional.Tomorrow i agree will be a tornado outbreak everything is right for tomorrow 3,000 cape shear.Also my spelling is due to me typing very fast.
I can tell you that Alberto is not the only one here with atrocious spelling, grammar and punctation. I noticed well before Alberto began posting. For example some people forget to start their sentences with capital letters, or to use apostrophes in words such as "don't". But at the end of the day this is a weather forum - not an english exam. Regarding your forecasts, Alberto: I am happy to read all of them, some are vague and tell me nothing more than the picture at the top of this thread, for example. Others do give me some insight. So keep it up but just avoid stating the obvious and remember to be modest when you are correct.
Alberto keep up the good work. I figured your tying was the reason for the misspelling but I really don't care. Your knowledge about weather is what really counts and it is top notch
hey reed i managed to see the live stream video of todays activities but i was told it was a unwarned storm there was also talk of a stormchaser arrested man peopl eneeed to chill when it comes to us dont u all know we are a rliable source for the safety of others during severe storms and chasing
I nominate albertando for most informative post, and no Ben, no one likes an emo
storms near the panhandle will continue to be suepercells with occasional 2 inch or greater hailstones and spotty isolated tornados.Later on as winds aloft and low level jet shift to south west wind and hail will be possible.Never rule out a damaging event overnight.Example Kansas city last friday morning.
LOL that post by albertando nearly had me in tears, "IDK if the moisture will extend to the Japanese area, but I'll throw in some chances or tornadic activity there as well" that is too funny
why would some one get arrested for storm chasing there not braking any laws if listen to cop.
alot better alberto now that is something i can understand and is good info
Can anyone give me some more info on the storms moving through Nebraska/Iowa. I'm in IA and I noticed this storm has already caused a tornado warning north of Ames.
if i can get my internet weather ill try to help but still learnin weather forcast's myself
LOL Jb, are you trying to pretend to be me? I saw your comment in the previous blog post. There were no tornadoes north of Garnett and we couldn't afford to go to Greensburg this weekend. LURK MOAR. In about 3 minutes we'll all know who the real jb is!
Who is alberto????? and who are these people who think his posts are accurate and informative info?
Thanks for the possible help. I don't know anything technical about forecasting. I'm just wondering if much rotation is really going on in any of this system. (I don't know what to look for on the radar.)
Kim??? Where did you hear a chaser got arrested????
does anyone know a good link to where i can get onboard radar for my truck? i have the NAV with weather maps, but it doesnt have radar, just warned counties, current condiitions, and forecasts, and they are all 20 minutes delayed. As everyone knows, its been an unusually active storm season thus far, and I drive from Fayetteville AR to Waco, Tx and back often, and I know one of these times Im going to drive into severe weather. Its not that im scared, its just that windshields are expensive to replace these days. Any ideas?
Hey guys, this is Matt Van Every from TVN Stream 1. We were North of Lubbock, Tx on the two supercells to the North where we got pounded by tennis ball size hail for about ten minutes (East of Olton, TX). We lost our windshield and the car is now totaled!!!
However, this did not phase us, we continued to maneuver around the meso while trying navigate the muddy roads (we almost got stranded). Our persistence paid off, we punched through the rain rap to revile amazing structure and contrast in the wall cloud. At one point the wall cloud was about 300 feet agl with rapid motion just one mile to our East. We were hoping that it was going to produce a brief tornado. Unfortunately this did not happen because the southern storms raced north to undercut our supercells. If those storms to the South would have held off for another 30 minuets we would have had a very photogenic tornado.
I will be posting pictures in the forum when we get better internet. Stay tuned!!
Ben, WTH????
Looking forward to the pics...Thanks for the info Alberto...appreciate it.
Excuse my stupidity, but would that have been a bow echo on the radar near the Eastern Iowa/Northwestern Illinois border? Or maybe just a hook? Just curious is all, thanks to anyone who has a moment to answer. Trying to learn a bit about storms myself. I'm looking at the weatherbug.com Doppler radar.
QUOTE: "Hey guys, this is Matt Van Every from TVN Stream 1. We were North of Lubbock, Tx on the two supercells to the North where we got pounded by tennis ball size hail for about ten minutes (East of Olton, TX). We lost our windshield and the car is now totaled!!!"
HOLY SH**!!!! Screw posting videos of the storm - post vids of the car!!!! :))
Hey guys, let's try to watch the language... young weather fans enjoy tv.net too.
Sorry for the second post, but I forgot to say it shows up at about 10:30 PM Central time. Or I may be totally off and it's just a regular line of storms.
Tennis ball sized hail... Car totaled.... I don't know why but it brings to mind a line from an old movie....
Chong: "tell him you need the van to take out his daughter."
Cheech: "Man, I don't wanna take out his daughter!"
Chong: "But he'll be so worried about his daughter he'll forget all about the van."
Here are the pictures from today's storms around Olton. We ran into the tv.net team at a convenience store and it was a mad house. There were Discovery Channel cameramen running everywhere as well as their 10+ chase vehicles all trying to fill up with gas haha.
Trying to be who? Ya right !!! Look at the storm reports from last thurday.. yo homie! Der... I am the one who is JB... period.. and I have the video of my encounter... so what mikeM..
Maybe you couldn't afford to go to Geensburg, but thats your deal... I was there last year.. & for the event this year,,, Money?.. Thats your problem dickM.. I have more than enough to handle my storm chasing habit ..&... many videos to back my place... And furthermore you missed it... So WORD !!! I am the only JB period..
jb
WOW, look at all the chest pounding from the heman....
I love it... It is all in fun.. Keeps it exciting eh !
Have at it matie.. Its time to party.. take it from here whoever you are..
jb
WHOA!!!!!! Where did all THAT come from???? Iowa, Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas, & Nebraska ALL have some serious storms brewing! (picture link above)
Grab you gear boys and girls - looks like ****'s going to hit the fan TONIGHT!!
LOL, Jonathan behle, mr. i stole everyone's photos and boasted them as my own with your BAMF chase team. Bad ....A...mofos? Why didn't I think of that name for my "team!" LOL
Has JP got a restraining order on you guys yet? Pretty alarming how you guys obsess over him....LOL...you were there in GB last year watching it from the comfort of your lazy boy until you post proof.
You didn't think I didn't know who you were? And you're mad at me, because you stole real chasers photos or that your life is nothing more than made up of something you aren't?
Stop and say hello if you see us out there! We're pretty friendly!
I have posted some pics in the forum. Check it out!!!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/080501_rpts.html
We were in Garnett and Ottawa and saw nothing more than a gigantic shelf cloud, some strong winds and small hail. I think the NWS stopped doing spotter talks already for the year, and now you have SPC's report page, that way you can get your lies straight next time and it won't be so obvious.
******ALERT*****
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GAINES COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL ANDREWS COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 130 AM CDT
Wow.. LOL.. The Anger!! DickM, Mr. TornadoLive himself.. DOMINATING! Whats going on? You Chasing tomorrow?
Who is stealing pictures?
Well anyway.. Some of you guys need to quite down in here. This a place for people to come and learn about severe weather and share stories. Not a place for blabber mouths. JY had to get on here and say something! Thats not good. Now I am on here. I am not trying to start any trouble just letting you guys know whats up.. Please be courteous to others in here and if anybody says anything that is not appropriate it will be handled!
Well Dick I hope you can make it out for tomorrow. I know Reed will be out.. Could be huge for NC Texas into S OK.. Dallas could be in trouble.. Just hope things don't blow up into a huge squall. I will be out. It is my home turf.
Alberto:
Thanks for your enthusiasm, but lets try and keep to just a few posts per blog entry... Maybe spend a little more time on a smaller number of posts to increase the quality rather than the quantity. You seem to have a good understanding of meteorology, but it might be good to channel some of your energy!
We just got to our hotel in Wichita Falls to position for tomorrow. We met up with Matt and co of Stream 1 minutes before their car was destroyed... We ran into a barrage of at least golf balls and some larger, but escaped with only dents. I thought our brand new wind shield was about to go though
"2240 425 6 SE GRANDFALLS PECOS TX 3128 10278 WINDOWS KNOCKED OUT BY HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZED. (MAF)"
Matt, just so you know - I'm going to be bugging the crap out of you daily until you post pics of the car. :))
Dominating the shelf clouds! We've been pretty busy this year with not as flexible of schedules as the last few years, but after May 12th is over, we'll be out every day that there's a shot...hopefully.
Yeah I like the Dallas area to Parix TX per the WRF....if the low makes it as far as it's advertising it to be, I'll likely chase SW MO. I have a final at 1 p.m. tomorrow and should be done by 2.
If the GFS is right, I think it'll likely be a linear show along the cf up north and dryline down south. But if that dry slot doesn't advance too quickly (or develop at all!), south of the surface low. there's a small window for cold core tornadoes there with very strong vertical forcing and great 0-3 km CAPE with very cold temps aloft. The placement of the surface low varies probably 250 miles between the GFS and WRF....
Gotta love the models!
Either way it's gonna be a huge mess for parts of OK, KS, MO, AR with flash flooding again.
tomorrow looks interesting...its exciting when you have no clue what's going to happen...i'm glad we got absolutely NOTHING in central oklahoma today other than "heavy t-storms"...i'm still counting on a better chase in the next few weeks but will be monitoring everything very closely tomorrow!!! good luck whoever goes! And I think it is very important to take time to read over the post and make sure that you have spelled everything decently...i feel that it takes away from the intellect that this blog potentially offers!!!
Today should be a very active day for tornados.Only question is the cape how much precip will be there before the main stroms?Destabilization?
4.5 hail reported in lamb county last night.I said that storm would be producing exactly 4.5 hail!I will have more this afternoon 1:20 pm
Alberto, seriously - you need to stop posting every 10 minutes, it's ridiculous, no one with any meteorogical knowledge is paying any attention to you. Take Reeds advice and post 1 time every hour or so with an actual informative post.
I am taking reeds advice I was saying what happened overnight.
Alberto...please limit your posts!!!
Only a few per blog entry.. You can consolidate all your information into a single post. Please leave nowcasting for the forum..
Reed, What would be the best device to use for chasing and having radar access in your vehicle?
Pat, you'd want to get a data card for your laptop. The data card itself will typically run you at least $100 (usually there's a rebate), and then the service (from a cell provider) is about $60 per month before tax. Then you download GRLevel3 and you're set. There are always data holes and areas with weak (slow) signal, so you can't really expect service to be 100% reliable in every location.
Reed, Chase teams- TVN 1, and others..
Really appreciate your live tracking... You guys are awesome..
Matt, post some of the pics of your totalled car... I had that happen last year on a chase...
looking forward to your continued event coverage.
Reed, thanks for the comments to Alberto...
jb
Reed,
You guys didn't happen to stop in Floydada last night? I pulled into a parking lot with two SUV's sitting out front. I was driving a white F-150. Any ways, I could have sworn one of the passengers looked just like you.
Jeffrey, They have TVN.net stickers on the SUV.
Moderate just issued for Southeastern OK , Northeastern Texas. 15% hatched for tornadoes.
That's crazy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joU4jLQIx0Y
Looks like DarthHailer ;-) . But don't do this at home. They can handle it (they're degreed meteorologists). There are indeed higher buildings nearby, but there is a remaining risk to be strucked by lightning.
But great fun :-) !
Good luck everybody today.
There were stickers on the SUV's but I wasn't close enough to look at them. I saw the Discovery channel team drive through Floydada as well.
Haha, I met up with Reed on the road outside of Plainview. We both got caught in a hailstorm in a town called Halfway. We pulled over afterwards and we talked a bit about stuff as a funnel was looking to drop. Can't believe that I was chasing with Reed there for a bit. The Discovery Channel had me sign a release form saying they might put me in the show. So I got some good pictures, and my truck got hail damage. Probably 10 dents on my hood and roof from the golfball sized hail. I hope we meet again on the field Reed, that was pretty cool.