News DetailTornado outbreak possible Thursday, Friday, ...
Posted At: May 20, 2008 @ 2:31 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A massive trough will amplify over the Northeast Pacific Ocean tonight, and is forecast to intensify and park over the Western U.S. by Thursday of this week. Land spout-type tornadoes will be possible with high-based storms in Eastern CO and WY on Wednesday, with a much more significant severe weather episode on Thursday over Western Kansas. If tonight's model runs verify, there would likely be an outbreak of strong tornadoes over Western into Central Kansas on Thursday. There will also be severe weather chances through the weekend, but 6-7 days is a little far to even speculate. The 500 mb forecast loop below tells the story...
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Looks good! We're leaving today and overnight in Kansas before a chase tomorow on WY frontrange.
Finally..
Really strong storm in the pacific will be moving in for us making thursday/friday good... good... good for us in the waiting game..
Looks like all is in place for a possible "classic" tornado outbreak.. I will be in W Kansas/E Colo AM Thurs.. Ready to rock... Been waiting for this possible situation for a while. We should get a couple of days of this...Keep it safe and smart y'all.
Mr T
Here it goes again.......good luck to all those who are chasing tomorrow. Stay safe, and get great footage! XD (I don't know what XD means, someone please tell me)
That's the first I've seen the NAM for this set-up. Now I see why people are going berserk over it. Looks like the GFS is pushing that trough further east than it had been for a few days, too. 0Z-6Z Friday looks pretty huge for western KS & NE. Anyone seen the WRF 1km helicity for that timeframe? =-O Time to add a big "Stay safe, everyone!"
Looks like we have a bit of a severe threat today in Northern GA, doubt we'll have any tornadoes but you never know. This area seems to be ripe for tornadoes lately.
Do you speak polish? I like you tornadoes.
Ya this week looks amazing. Still waiting here in Ontario for my first big action this year. Had a couple good rain storms thats about it.
Ari - It's a like a big big smile.
X = The closed/squinted eyes.
D = The mouth.
I would like to know what kind of ramifications this has for great lakes/ohio valley region, will we see the chance for some severe being downstream of the major trough. I was chasing back on the 11th of april and the perfect setup was in place all day we had plentiful sunshine whilst in the warm sector and as the cold front started to impinge from the west we got extraordinary convection to fire off ive got pics of funnels near grand blanc and grand rapids i want to post but am not verified yet
This looks like it could be a 3+ day outbreak. WOW
This looks like a classic Omega block set up, the western trough should stall over the region for several days. I agree, this could be a multi-day outbreak.
Can't wait. I will have my video camera ready in wichita
I'm sitting here in Farmington, NM. I plan to leave Thursday afternoon to northern TX panhandle or somewhere in SW KS to set up a BoO. Will probably chase western KS down towards the TX/OK border along I-40. If anyone would like to join me, I would like to team up with some people. For now, I'm out there on my own with no radar, so any help would be appreciated. PM me in the forum or e-mail me if someone would like to join up.
I am predicting a tornado somewhere in the continental United States in the next 72 - 96 hours. Probably in either Kansas or Nebraska - I'll have to wait for the next model run to narrow it down to which state.
** Just wanted to let everyone know that like Alberta (or Alberto), I too have an extraordinary forecasting capabilities **
**DISCLAIMER: This post is purely intended for humor. No feelings of people, real or imagined, were intended to be hurt.
WOW... Is RIGHT!
Been all over this one for over a week... Everything is set up as Reed says on the 2 to 3 day outbreak..
Surf this morning in Cali is HUGE... Large amount of fetch out here off the coast.. Waves on our coast will hit over 15 foot by late tomorrow.. With the wind, jet, and all the goods.. Looks like its going to be a good one..
Looking forward to my arrival to get some of this as well.. Just love these setups! Models and such are looking INSANE ! Safe travels to all of you connecting on this one
BC
If the models hold up, Im sure going to be missing out on some good action. Hopefully everyone has a good time and Be Safe!
My dad and I will be out Thurs and Fri and MAYBE Saturday, but it has to look like tornadoes are a given because my grandparents are coming and my mom would be mad if we weren't there. Looks as though we may be in for an awesome couple of days! WOOO I'm excited.
Beautiful hook echo in southern South Carolina and shows strong rotation on base reflectivity!
Some nice cells breaking out over northern GA right now. I called this at work, it was beautiful all day and I told everybody the temp and winds were ripe for us getting some nasty storms popping early evening. Severe T-Storm is all we have right now with some warnings. Haven't hit my area yet but the sky is really nasty to the west.
My bad, I was so excited that i said base reflectivity when I meant to say storm relative. Boy, is the hook defined now!!!!!!!
Thanks a lot, Munsie (XD). We just had a tornado warning here in central NC. Pea size hail, strong winds, plenty of lightning. There was never any actual tornado, though. Stay safe everyone!
Yeah Ari, my family lives in Goldsboro and I called them to tell them about the weather and the warning in Johnston County. I live here in middle GA and we should have some later on...
Just threw up two tornado warnings for northern GA. One is about 30 miles from where I am and it's heading in our general direction.
Well the early warnings kind of died off about 15 minutes after coming out, but then right around 6:45 PM we had a new one come out. There was a spotter confirmed tornado on the ground 7 miles north of Dunwoody which is about 20 minutes east of my office. The projected path was right through the middle of Duluth and Norcross which is maybe 6-7 miles from my office.
I took off about 6:50 PM and headed south. Had the crappy digital camera with me so that's really all I had for video. Took some video but didn't end up seeing anything. I think I either got there before or after because as I was coming up on the area it was supposed to be passing through the wind was kicking up around 60 mph and it was hailing like nobody's business. A lot of intense cloud to ground lightning also.
So anyways, didn't see anything, but it was fun. Saw a few downed tree branches and shrubs, nothing serious. The weather channel is talking about damage north of Atlanta and will have a segment coming on in a few minutes. I'll upload what I have on youtube later.
Were they close to Gainseville? They have a history of tornadoes there.
Dude, the storms to the east have moved over my house today. We got nickel sized hail and several tornado watches. Nothing since about four thirty, though. I live in Augusta.
They went just south of Gainesville, I think between Norcross and Duluth is where it went through but it may have not been tornadic by the time it reached our area. The hail was pretty intense for awhile but it wasn't bigger than nickel from what I could see.
If we can get 50 dewpoints in southeast WY like the models are indicating then I like the tornado potential there. Shear is more than adequate.
We're currently crossing the NE/KS border...will spend the night somewhere near North Platte, and then head west to WY tomorrow. The DOWs are chasing down in Northeast CO along the Denver Cyclone. Land spout outbreak!!!!!!!!!!
Darrin Rasberry and I will be taking off for Nebraska after I finish work today and wll be chasing in Nebraska, Kansas, and maybe even Iowa from the 22nd through at least the 26th, looks to be quite an active period!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Stream1 isn't messing around with these landspouts, we are targeting the eastern TX panhandle/SW Oklahoma for the development of violent mesocyclones, although the cap could be insane and may not allow for a storm at all, but rules don't apply for the caprock. Really excited about the chase marathon about to commence! We will be out for all of it!
Nice hail pictures from NC (click name)
latest update as of 10:54 am Wed. from NWS out of Wichita office..
"NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR THURSDAY...AND MAYBE FRIDAY AS WELL.
MOST MODELS ARE TARGETING GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF TO WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF KANSAS BOTH DAYS. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGH-END SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG-LIVED
TORNADOES. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND."
Looks promising for Thur. & possibly Friday!
That's it!!!!!
I'm moving to Kansas.....and building an EF5 Tornado Proof House....Good luck everyone....and as always...this event will turn into just rain by the time it reaches O-H-I-O....
What do you guys think about SW KS to S-Cent. KS to W OK to TX panhandle for Friday-Sunday? I'm wanting to chase but that would mean driving from Farmington, NM. Thinking of getting a room somewhere in Dodge City if it'll be worth it. I know Thurs looks to be the big day, but just want to know if it'll be worth heading out on the weekend.
Also, still looking to convoy with someone out there if I do go. The guy I'm talking with now is a bit iffy on going. I really don't wanna be on the field without a second opinion or without a radar.
We're in Kimball, NE currently and have some nice clearing with a few cirrus still around. Some cumulus forming over the mountains west of I-25. Might see a 50 dewpoint. We'll see... Beautiful chase country though!
I predict strong storms Thur in west central Kanas. Near the Greensburg/Great Bend area. Look like some good storms may fire and I am thinking possibly some EF3 or greater may set down. Long track tornados possible. Good luck chasing all. Hope to see a few of you in Kansas
WOW Bill, you took that photo? It ROCKED, man. What floor of the Bordeaux Holiday Inn were you on?
Thanks Alberto! Since you have the magical power to predict where do you think this EF5 will be? I don't wanna waste gas driving all over the place. HAHA I will be somewhere in Kansas tomorrow. Just don't know where yet.
Looks like Reeds getting closer to the target...
Debo: Hope you can make it out there. Also there are alot of Mcdonalds etc.... that have wi-fi if you have a wireless connection but no mobile. At least you can get target information that way. As far as a partner I guess it depends on what your comfortable with.
Partner = someone with wireless card, GRLevel3 radar (or any good radar at that), and someone willing to get real close and isn't afraid of a little hail.Contact me if anyone's interested.
Heck, Debo, I'd go if I was anywhere near Kansas. For now I just do nowcasting for another chaser from Kansas City.
Looks like a nice cell by Lamar, CO.
Currently in Weatherford, OK where we will be spending the night and trying to get some much needed rest for the several days ahead. Plan on departing before 10am and head towards the Dodge City area. Tomorrow is looking very nice for supercells and tornadoes. With Kansas's data coverage we should beable to stream quite a bit more than we have earlier this year so check back tomorrow afternoon. Good luck to everyone going out and stay safe!
international tornado from hungary I think:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzh3Sa-1J-s
I have to work tomorrow unfortunatley...I would definitely play it SW kanas and at worst would go into northern kansas...those southernmost storms will be the best and the latest runs show an almost non-existent 1km helicity in NE...you never know this could all change in the next outlook...
Good luck to all who are chasing. Be safe and I hope you all get some great footage.
We will be heading to the Wakeeny, KS area shortly, hoping to catch storms as they race north today. Good luck to everyone going out and stay safe!