News DetailModerate Risk issued in East Kansas!
Posted At: May 1, 2008 @ 8:47 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A moderate risk has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for eastern Kansas, mainly for the threat of very large hail. While the SPC mentions moisture will be a limiting factor for tornadoes today, we still think moisture will be sufficient for strong tornadoes near 00z when the upper-level support finally arrives. We're targeting South Kansas just south of the triple point! I'm not sure why comments were disabled in the last post!
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If I were your windshield I would be nervous.
LOL. Good luck. Will be watching.
looks like it works this time.
Come on bring something close to Wichita!! Dang it I am sure it will be north and east of here if it develops....
Good luck Reed, don't (totaly) destroy your windshield!
Looks like my area (KC, MO) is a possibility today. Too bad I'll be stuck at work.
I'm really surprised about the SPC forecast. I'd say the best chance for tornadoes will be in Oklahoma maybe into southeast KS. Iowa also looks interesting, but is probably the second best target. Definitely a bimodal situation setting up and I'd say most of Kansas will be between the two modes with forced convection. I'd definitely increase the tornado probabilities into Oklahoma, esp. if the WRF verifies.
I'm so glad to hear you say that, Reed! I've been spotting all season and other than some rotation haven't seen anything! I live in Pittsburg in the very Southeast corner of Kansas, so I'm excited at the prospect of some chaos tonight. I just bought a new car, so while I'm excited that I can chase quickly, I'm not looking forward to the golf ball sized hail that may come with it...:(
Hate to say it Karen, but if the RUC verifies we could see hail up to softballs!!! Based on the RUC I think I will head down towards the KS/OK border maybe near the Coffeyville, KS area. But I agree with Reed we could see big stuff.
I guess only time will tell! I can say with conviction that should there be softball size hail, I will be watching it destroy my car from an alternate place. Exciting! Let me know if you make it up this way!
I like the Iowa/Nebraska target, but am not willing to drive that far to bust when I can do it here.
The new RUC gives us false hope for SE KS......
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc09hr_sfc_prcp.gif
Iola, KS to Coffeyville is where we'll be getting a tan and hitting golfballs.
Well, Coffeyville is only 45 minutes from here so I might be willing to make a little drive...I'll be keeping an eye on the status and checking updates throughout the day...
Well, Coffeyville is only 45 minutes from here so I might be willing to make a little drive...I'll be keeping an eye on the status and checking updates throughout the day...
YEP !! Now we where the huge hail is gonna be . Karen you solved all the questions on where the big storms are gonna be . Storms love new cars. Head to Pittsburg boys.....................
I haven't even had it for a month! I do have a garage, but something tells me that if there is softball sized hail, the garage isn't going to be a whole lot of help. I'm definitely pumped now! Glad I took plenty of insurance out on it! :)
OH wait a minute . Karen is chasing the storms . That wont work then.
Wait! Don't make me lose hope! I said if there is softball sized hail, that I'd be watching it destroy my car...probably from home. So, don't take it back yet! I need some reassurance here!
Newbie question: What is the triple point?
Triple Point? Something to do with ice skating? I know there's the 3 point stance in football. Weatherwise, I have no idea.
Triple Point - The intersection point between two boundaries (dry line, outflow boundary, cold front, etc.), often a focus for thunderstorm development.
Didnt the SPC just update their outlook just a little bit?
Has anyone else noticed that the UTC time (at the bottom of the summary text) on the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook page is incorrect by 1 hour?
LOL @ DickM.
Great attitude, I love it.
Put the clubs down long enough to glance at radar though...
Good luck Reed!! And all the rest of you chasing today :)...
Hope you all have MUCH better luck than my poor Habs!!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/append/glossary_t.htm
Forgot to provide the link to where I found what "triple point" was.
i see this being a 3 day severe outbreak tomorrow a clssic strong tornado/long tracked.copy of super tuesday in same place.today i see perhaps a greensburg kansas like tornado. Hope not that bad!
Reed and the TV.net crew:
Craig, Elton, and I are preparing to head just east and a tad south of the Fort Dodge area. We wish you the best of luck there in Kansas, and wish we were there with the usual suspects, but when home is threatened we gotta do what we gotta do!
Reed becareful i predict very large hail given capes more than 2,500 to 3,500 and very steep mid level lapse rates near 9 combined with 45 to 50kt deep layer shear stroms will repedly rotate and produce isolated3 to 5 inch hail reports never rule out 7 inch hail which happened once!
i am targeting oklahoma where cape is now 4,000jkg combined with strong shear and lapse rates strong tornados, very large hail, damaging winds from downdrafts should hapoen i say lp classic looking supercells. Caution large damaging hail very likely! I think storms in oklahoma will be most explosive.
cu fields developing.Supercells to form with tornados next couple hours tornado watch likely
appears cu fields may evelove soon into supercells tornado watches likely along dryline to triple point.I think certainly this want be anyhting of a dryline bust.Storms will develop 100% my estamate
tornado watch issued for iowa nebraska south dakota minnisota tip
Yes there is a tornado watch. Thanks!!
You are the man Alberto!
Yeh and also oklahoma stroms may develop we know they will develop some time if early enough they could be explosive into kansas that area is of most concearn where now 2,000 to 4,000 cape is
No storms in Oklahoma during daylight hours. I'm going to call it now cause I'm good. I know I'm right. I know meteorology..lol
I bet they will i see cu towers and prediction center is monitering for a watch if they do develop?
I predict they will get a round of golf in before dark in the beautiful sunny weather, then drive to Arkansas and film a tube tomorrow.
If I'm in Winfield,KS is that too far east to watch anything develop? Where is the best vantage point going to be?
storms should develop there pat but not totally sure for kansas and oklahoma there is a cap when it breaks i will tell you. I monitering for development. dew points where you are pat are near 50 but should increase as low level jet quickly gets stronger.
Thanks for the information alberto. Is there a site that I can find all this information, or at least more information?
strom prediction center go there you get the info.Yeh knew update tornado watch issued shortly for kansas, oklahoma
tornado watch for kansas issued parts of missouri
Well there goes my prediction.
IT'S HAPPENING!
When do expect the cap to break and start firing em off?
they are exploding cap has broken
I am in south Overland Park, Kansas looking at a beautiful classic anvil supercell to my southwest. I'm not good on distances - but maybe 20 - 25 miles away?
I just took several pictures of it, but I'm at work so I can't upload them right now - but I'm keeping track of you guys and the rest of the weather.
Well I'm not to crazy about the moisture but these storms are exsploading!
i expect strong tornados long tracked.low level jet to increase and increase low shear to make it strong
everyone its my day tornado watch for oklahoma issued cap broke. This watch is significant
pds watch oklahoma best target with capes 4,000 to 5,000 jkg particulary dangerous situation cap eroded now
tpa i was right storms in oklahoma i was right never bet against me i want to be an expert one day. Thank you!
TJ_KC - I'm in the Northland in K.C. Mo. Dang it is getting realy bad outside. Greenish hue that alsways goes hand in hand with hail/tornados is here. No storm here yet but LOT of thunder from the storms just off to my southwest/west/north counties which are Thunderstorm warned.
alberto I disagre.I think these possable tornadoes will prolly be regular tornadoes. In other words The main supercell produces a tornado hits one town then disapates. That is usally how tornadoes do things.
tornado on ground in south dakota capable of strong to violent tornados
SEVERE STUDIOS HAS A TORNADO ON THE GROUND
softball hail in south dakota and capble of strong to violent tornados very strong helicity and shear with 2,500 cape life threat storm. Chasers under a tornado warning now also 3inch hail likely
classic hook ecko in oklahoma city tornado warnings also 4 inch hail shear is stronger by minute tornado emergency
wedge tornado half mile wide and getting larger reported by chaser in south dakota
LIVE WALL CLOUD ON KOCO!!!
^Live tornado on the ground!
AT 843 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS
CONTINUED TO TRACK A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADIC STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF RALSTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. A LARGE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED...TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY!
Robbie - how do you navigate to the video feed onyour link - I can't find it on k-for website.
Caleb - got a link for koco feed?
It's toward the top of the page where is says: 4 Warn Storm Team severe weather coverage.
Chased with Jstarr and saw the clear air tornado that touched down in Choctaw. Ripped up some trees and an outbuilding. Surprised it didn't drop something larger because that was an impressive supercell. Looks like we've got more coming tonight too.
"tpa i was right storms in oklahoma i was right never bet against me i want to be an expert one day. Thank you!"
I was making fun of a certain poster from my original posting. And guess what, that poster is you!
OK kid's play nice . Have a wild feeling Oklahoma ain't done yet tonight . Look's to be a long night. What a way to start May!
Well we just had 2 confirmed touchdowns in Belton Missouri. It happened before the sirens even went off.
Is the air stable enough for tornadoes with the line of storms in Wichita,KS or is it just going to be some hail and wind?
Great recap video that can be seen on:
http://www.kfor.com/
for the Oklahoma tornados last night.
I missed a lot of the action being at work then found I had to drive West through a Tornado Warning to get home through southern Johnson County, KS - I waited until it expired. However, that was the same cell that ended up moving through Jackson County, MO into the Belton, MO area. I had no access to a TV, so I was on the phone to someone who did as well as on TVN (here) and watching the NWS reports of warnings and looking at the reflectivity to see where exactly the rotation might have been. Its was interesting to do that for myself so I didn't drive right into the heart of a tornado!