News DetailSupercells possible in W Texas today - final Dawson Co, TX video
Posted At: April 26, 2008 @ 10:13 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a subtle shortwave trough rotates around the backside of the main vort max this afternoon, supercells will be possible over West Texas into the Hill Country. With limited moisture, the storms will initially be high-based and LP (low-precipitation) in nature, but will move southeastward into deeper moisture by evening. At this time, a low-level jet is forecast to intensify to 30+ knots south of a cold front surging southward across the High Plains. Deep layer shear will be more than adequate for rotating storms, and the low-level shear might get strong enough for tornadoes toward evening. Here is the final video of the Dawson Co, TX tornado from April 23, including the near lightning strike and gustnado.
Calendar
Categories
i expect as stroms encounter richer mouisture and favroable low level shear and like you said rotate cause of deep shear i think one or 2 stroms have a chance of a stonger tornado my predictions
Currently headed out to Abilene to see how things look. We'll probably get there around 2:00 and have plenty of time to sit around, eat, move around, and do whatever before anything good gets going.
Reed, where are yall heading?
Very nice video, that cloud looked amazing!!
Good luck with today.
Hey great video! Thanks for cleaning up the language....I like to show your videos to my junior high students....they don't mind it but their parents might! The kids love watching your videos.....Keep up the good work and maybe one day they can see a big one on the Live Stream!
Toby
storms are breaking out in pennsylvania i observed very steep lowl level lapse rates and 1,000 cape i think storms will intensify till peak heating is done and later on wane but hail damaging winds likely primary winds
Nice CGs on the video! Any closer and you be on fire.
Good luck again.
Skgirl, Go Habs!
storms in texas i expect to develop by late afternoon and be lp supercells give very large hail 3inches and occasional gusty winds from outflows i think a pretty good tornado threat will evolve this evening once low level jet intensifies to 30 to 40kt and enhances low level shear later mcs clusters will form with winds and small hail i think storm prediction center should write 10% tornado chance
next week a tornado outbreak is expected as a powerful upper through emerges into the palins with a strong jet severeal days of moistening and its a negetive tilted through suggest a serious outbreak might happen this will need to be updated
Alberto The tornado thret is at a 2% chance now. Maby this will be more HP supercells instead of regular ones. But you can never rule out a tornado.
Geez that gustnado looked like a
celab i know what your saying but i expect lp supercell structures given strong deep layer shear to support updraft rotation they would be more hp if weaker deep shear also not a tremendous amount of boundary moisture so first high based lp supercells as encounter richer mouisture low level shear surface based storms hail tornados can be expected from any cell and damging outflow winds i think they should issue a 10% tornado chance my predictions
Caleb, witht this lack of moisture LP supercells are more likely than HPs. I agree the SPC should up at at least to 5%. If for no other reason, just because Texas has been pretty good for at least weak, rain-wrapped twisters this year.
I will be in Abilene in about 20 minutes. Not a cloud in the sky, and the air is nice and dry. The heating is going along alright, but some moisture would sure feel good about now!
Connor if there is a 30% chance of hail oveously there is some kind of moisture in the atmasphere. the 30% chance of hail means that large hail about baseball sized can happen. but there is a 2% chance of tornadoes. HP supercells ar'nt very good tornado producers.
Caleb I know that very large hail is possible with thesestorms, but thee just isn't much moisture. Trust me. I'm in the middle of the 2% tornado risk right now, and it is dry. I'm just saying these storms probably won't be HP, but more likely LP or classic supercells.
The SPC even said in their outlook that probabilites would be raised if moisture returned faster than expected.
lp supercells will happen and they don't have to have enough moisture surface heating is occuring on very steep lapse rates in midlevels andhigh bases usually produce eighter hail or wind but later i said as they get feed of moist and low level shear with 30 to 40 kt low level jet and and move south east a bit strong deep shear means updraft rotation weak moisture means lp producers still think at least 10% probs should be issued
golf ball hail in rochester ny impressive storms and i detect a significant hail core don't know why no severe storm watch is out for ny and pennsylvania into virginia
supercells developin in next several hours in 2 to 3 hours sertain a watch is likely going to be issued still i think 10 % tornados 30% hail 15% damging winds i think storm center says high heights but as storms take moist influex and shear i think 5 to 10 tornados appear resonable
Clouds! Clouds! Clouds!
Haha, first ones I've seen all day sitting here SW of Abilene. Now I just have to wait a little more...
satelite shows cu development likely in response to moist flow increase supercells developin in couple hours
Conner do you have a National Spotter Network locator? Is that you SW of View?
Posted By Strike | April 26, 2008 @ 1:28 PM #
Nice CGs on the video! Any closer and you be on fire.
Good luck again.
Skgirl, Go Habs!
~~~~~~~~
Thanks!! Go Habs Go indeed ;)..
I'm back at home for the day, so I'll be able to watch your live stream all day then (except sporadically during hockey lol). Really do hope you can be successful!!!
mcd in storm prediction center cu clouuds watch likely in 1 or 2 hours showers forming
Yes Toby that is me. I'm gonna head towards Big Spring now. Are you chasing? And if so do you have a Spotter Network icon?
Yes Toby that is me. Do you have an icon?
No I am in Perryton, Tx about 5 hours straight North of you. I would like to be chasing but: I don't have a laptop, I only know enough about it to be dangerous, and everything is going to initiate too far south of me today.
But good luck man, I just saw you on GRLevel 3 and you said you were sitting SW of Abilene......
Sorry about that... the internet is acting up out here.
Thanks... I'll need it with this dry air out here. I can't really see the live tracker with this crappy connection. Can someone tell me where Reed is?
storms are just about to from as tcu towering cumulus are showing so rotating storms or supercells should develop connor
storms finally developing
Connor Reed is in Colorado city on I-20 going toward Big Springs.
Towers going up, the cap may have broken. I'm heading west on I-20 from Sweetwater
yeh i know its eroding fast with little cinh left near alpine 2,500 cape 50 kt shear and steep lapse rates explosive development to occur next 10 to 20 minutes
Looks like thunder storms are devoping in mexico. GOOD LUCK CONNOR!!!! GET US A WEDGE LOL
high based storms lp cells developing some surface based or near further south these may get tornado chance
CAP has definitely broken a little thunderstorm has devloped near fort stockton.
severe storm moving in on wichita kansas
Love the live video streams. I think the map is off as the TVN stream position is listed as I-20 at 6:30 EDT and the video shows the TVN stream broadcasting as you drive through a town rather than an interstate.
Storms have fired ahead of the cold front here......Nothing major but it looks to be heating up down there!
Conner looks like you are fixing to get rocked my friend!
How do I view Conners stream
watch has been issued for texas not sure which kind
I don't know if he has a stream I can just see his Storm Spotter icon on GRLevel3. He is currently between Sterling City and San Angelo
moderate vertical shear and strong deep layer shear present under very steep lapse rates and 45 to 50 kt flow aloft as low level jet develops tornado threat may develop
Looks like reed might be close to some developing storms. Don't know how the guy manages to find them like he can. He must be part bloodhound.
severe thunderstorm watch hail and wind urgent activation
conner may see tennis ball hail and 70 winds
These storms are EXSPLADING!!!!!!!
chasers a chsing a storm with strong rotation and i see a small hook ecko developing
tornado on ground land spout to east of spotters tornado warning! storm predction center
i see extreme rotation nit were chsers are but 30 miles north were a supercell is showing strong low level rotation based on super rader and red green couplet why they not chase that strom maybe a wedge tornado and softball hail
This thing is a monster. INSANE rotation! More later!
tell weather service so they issue tornado warning i see very strong low level rotation
Trying to reach the Colorado City storm before dark
tornado reported mitchel conty colorodo city storm also baseball hail 70 winds connor hury catch the tornado also indicate low level shear got stronger with low level jet 60 kt bulk shear and low level hodrogrphs
Heading home for the night. Couldn't reach the storm in time. I will have pictures and video tomorrow.
Just when you think you headed for warmer weather bam northern plains gets 8 inches of snow in a night. Some places got twice that. Kinda exciting but after about six months it gets old.
T.warned in Mason Co, Tx has a nice top.
http://shopperterminal.netfirms.com/mason.png
60mph winds and penny-sized hail in the Roanoke, Virginia region this afternoon! I find it odd that we weren't in a severe storm watch and Toronto, Ontario was...
Got a storm suppodely producing hail just south of 20 between Abalene & fort worth.
2 others south of abalene, 1 looks almost like the symbol used for hurricanes...
Was this really 2007, as the start of the video indicates?
no, it's just a typo. (I think)
i think next week a potent upper through with a strong jet will go to lains states with lots of return flow graphics and models show 3,500 to 4,500 cape with the potent negetive tilted through and surface low tornado outbreak more than likely more next week but iam certain its happening
Yup, just a typo. It was the one from 4 days ago but had to "edit" it.
SETUP LIKELY TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK BY THU AS THE
MAIN SYSTEM DRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NWS NORMAN. I have been watching this for a few days now and looks like thursday could be the day however...still 4 days out, have to keep a very close eye on however.
No it was April 23, 2008...I made a mistake.
Need to change the video again!!!
I noticed Thrusday potential set-up yesterday!
I love the way it looks. It screams tornado outbreak!! LET IT HAPPEN!! I am ready to roll.
Have you already seen that awsome video:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=QkMYxPeGOi0 ?
This must be the same tornado you Reed and Joel were later on.
tornado warning for north carolina craven county still pretty sure a 3 to 4 day outbreak will happen next week and sad the rangers lost game 2 against the penguins
Just saw Tornado Glory on PBS! Awesome!
LOL, Reed...I didn't even notice the year typo until just now.
Thursday looks good. I don't get out of school until 4:15, so hopefully something can get going nearby.
The latest WRF shows a weak cap with lots of mosture and some precip around here 0z Friday, so I might get something good.
I like the 850 mb speeds a lot. Last time I checked the GFS it showed 45+ knots at 0z Friday. Another thing I really like is the lack of early morning convection. WRF shows absolutely nothing at 12z Thursday. I have had to deal with that on nearly all of my chases this year.
Hopefully May will come in with a bang! And close to me too...
You boys have a good time at Hosty tonight? How do you thing this week is going to go?
This video on you tube is not great quality but a very picturesque storm/tornado structure
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeNHwKd8eRQ
TW near Jacksonville, Fl near the town of Live Oak
tornado watch issued includes north carolina other staes have not checked but 100 to 200 helicity and some cape bulk shear 45kt should give winds tornados but not a major watch
tornado reported west of jacksonville florida by spotters a watch might be issued there since we got serius stuff there tornado on ground there again
Alberto, Could you use punctuation. Your post sound like you are 10. And please post less. Thank You.
Man, we're seeing some stuff like that near kentucky all the way to virginia. You guys traveling anywhere near there?
and trey, theres no need for that here. Be mature enough to ignore it.
yeh a tornado was spotted near norflok,though rotation has slightly weakened but was a very dangerous storm.
Alberto may post alot but he seems to know what he is talking about.
A massive tornado went through Hampton Roads, VA area. I saw a pic on one of the news stations of a high-contrast 1/2 mile wide wedge tornado. Beautiful Plains looking wedge, but sadly it looked like it caused some significant damage...i'd say EF3 maybe a strong EF2.
yeh i got some extreme news the tornado there in virginia looks to be a wedge tornado.I was saying that when i mentioned very dangerous storm,think i was correct again.get it in the nowcasting section in the forum.predict winds of 145 mph at least in that wedge.
yeh i got some extreme news the tornado there in virginia looks to be a wedge tornado.I was saying that when i mentioned very dangerous storm,think i was correct again.get it in the nowcasting section in the forum.predict winds of 145 mph at least in that wedge.
Reports of over 200 injured in virginia some critical and at least 1 dead.I knew this was a bvig storm watching my own super rader which i ordered.
It's looking ratherb bad that was a strong tornado.
livestream: http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream3
wedge tornado video on wavy tv 10 live me watching it.
my thoughts strong ef3 to weak ef4 i am certain my calculations,still watching live streaming coverage on the forum a disater like super tuesday outbreak.
I know its late but I got a video up from Wed. 23rd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxkK9k84Udw
today was the anniversery of maryland la plata tornado that destroyed severeal towns this is amazing almost same place and another strong tornado.couple homes are destroyed completely.Also noted these were very well constructed homes.
now casting section live streaming video in forums.Amazing but sad.