News DetailNon-zero tornado threat, 100% chance of monster hail!
Posted At: April 21, 2008 @ 9:50 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Today looks like a classic high-CAPE/low-shear event along the front from northern Missouri southwestward to Oklahoma, with the RUC forecasting CAPE as high as 5000 J/kg in central OK by 00z this evening! The only limiting factor for tornadoes will be the lack of low-level shear, with a 20-25 knot LLJ forecast to develop by 00z. Still though, with CAPE values this high, there will be substantial stretching of any vorticity that can be vertically tilted by the strong updrafts, and there is a possibility the LLJ could develop faster and stronger than forecast. The 12z RUC forecast CAPE and 850 mb flow for 00z this evening are shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for this area, with a 5% tornado probability. While the tornado threat may be marginal today, I'd say the chances of losing another windshield are very high, since we'll likely be dealing with some monster hail with any supercells that form in this highly unstable environment! Our current target is from Enid east to I-35, although this could be adjusted north and east depending on how convective initiation and low-level shear profiles evolve. We also plan on testing a new streaming video setup today! Wednesday looks like the apocalypse in the TX Panhandle...stay tuned.
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Yes, I can't wait to chase this afternoon. It's only 10am here and you can already smell the moisture in the air!!!! BRING IT ON!!!!
I went outside at 2 am here in Norman. It felt amazing. Nice and warm with a 62 degree dew. Hopefully there will be some more nights like that to come, but with a more potent setup the next day. The winds look very unimpressive today, but I wouldn't be surprised by some softball-size hail reports today. Atleast Wednesday is holding some promise of a huge day.
Whaa...????? I thought tomorrow was supposed to be the big one?
The possible big day for this week has changed with almost every model run. Forecasting is pointless, you might as well just randomly guess what day will be big and you would have better odds of figuring it out.
Good luck today and please try your best to lose a windshield for us armchair chasers.
Reed, remember to brief your TV.net crewmates: "HAIL CAN HURT YOU." And don't forget the velcro-pocket shorts, you know, FOR YOUR CELL PHONE!!!
Sweet. I will try to watch todays events. Why do these outbreaks always have to take place when i have tons of work to get done?
Oh, ok... Well right now, I'm just praying some of it will be able to make it all the way out here :(
When I go to the Extreme Tour page, I get a massive list of error codes. Just thought yall might like to know that.
Heidi I am glad you are encouraging him to protect his phone!! Good luck today to everyone chasing. I can't wait to get out there for Wednesday's event!
John H., Cors and myself will be heading out shortly... I believe we will drive west on I40 a little way, maybe to the El Reno area.
Hopefully our network coverage will be good today since we should stay relatively near the metro, so our Stream 3 will be running continuously.
I'm making it my goal to destroy the windshield of the Hyundai (why should the main vehicle have all the fun?), so hopefully the live video will capture this!
Just to add that I also think Wednesday is shaking up to be a major outbreak...
JY, perhaps you will bring in some luck when you get up here? Look forward to seeing you again!
Could be a crazy day!
I wouldn't count on my luck...as most of the time it's not the best. Let's hope for the rental cars luck!
Matt Chat, Wes L. and myself will be heading out sometime after 3pm. We too will be in grave danger of loosing our windshield since it is already weakend by the baseball on April 3rd. We will be streaming live hopefully the entire time!
The water vapor image looks nice right now, from, strangely enough, Enid all the way over to the KS/OK/MO border area. I think we're not too far from initiation. I want to see a mesoscale discussion NOW!!!
Central Oklahoma has potential as well.
We currently have a 65 degree dewpoint, and a temperature of 83!!!!!!! BRING IT ON!
Again??? This can only be exciting!!!!!! :D
Are the streams on yet or am I just not getting them?
The SPC reduced the tornado chance to 2%. They must not know about the non-zero threat.
hello folks, all seems quite on the western front. could there be something jinxing these forcasts? anyway, i'm gonna go do a rain dance. maybe i can get some storm genesis going...........
I haven't had time to look at any of the data, but the cap must be strong out here! I just walked from the car to my house and its hot and humid... why no storms?!?!
thing's look interesting in SC Oklahoma . Wish this cape would break , I think it would be wild here .
I think we could see action in SC OK very soon. Mesoanalysis shows the cap virtually gone ahead of the dryline bulge with CAPEs above 4000, and satellite images show cu starting to develop.
I think we could see action in SC OK very soon. Mesoanalysis shows the cap virtually gone ahead of the dryline bulge with CAPEs above 4000, and satellite images show cu starting to develop.
Sorry about the double post.
the TVN stream looks beautiful. hope it holds up when the weather starts.
lol , reed is going south! lol. May have to play tonight
dam, he is in Norman. lol . feed looked good
Ya, TVN stream looks exremely good. I love you guys. Nothing like storm chasing while I work on finishing my programming homework.
JY, this trip over . . . I hope I actually get to see you! Be safe on your way!
Wow-WEE, I see people on cell phones in front of a white hatchback of some sort. It's better than The Real World!
After a grueling repositioning of the vehicle to a new driveway parking space vantage point, I just spied Reed & Joel and a frisbee, and a neighbor walking their dog on a leash. This certainly appears to be a non-zero tornado day. I will now go turn my grilling bratwursts.
nice ankles!!lol!!!
I do believe that in the next SPC update we are due for the dreaded "SEE TEXT".
Nothing's happening. Frisbee time. Non-zero chance of nice weather, too!
On a related note, I JUST SAW MY FIRST LIGHTNING OF THE YEAR. Everyone hurry and congratulate me.
Saw the first zappers of the year too, unfortunately I didn't see the one right over me while walking 2 blocks to my car.........Let's just say I had a nice jog the rest of the way. Here's a link for anyone who was wondering about lightning and houses.
http://www.in-forum.com/News/articles/198759
the video part is at the bottom
theyre already talking about more severe weather than expected around witchita falls wednesday. and by "they" i mean the news. bring on tha apocalypse!
hmm....the cells popped right over the team's house. when reed can't find storms he has them come to him ;^)
I'm feeling nervous
If Wednesday's event stays put it will be within my weekday driving range. Any shift west or north would put it out of reach though...
Texas Panhandle, why are you feeling nervous?
WOW! We just saw baseball size hail with huge spikes along the side of the road just west of Maysville. We almost lost our windshield again but we were about a mile west of the biggest hail. We collected the stones and they're safe in our portable freezer.
What an insane day. 30 minutes before sunset we're playing frisbee in our driveway and then we're getting pummeled by baseballs.
Reed, the live stream worked a lot better (for me, at least) today - NICE! I saw the frisbee, the hailstorm at dusk, and the hail battle armor you & Joel were wearing. Did you guys have a wall cloud at one time, too? I thought I may have been seeing one; Joel was walking around the front of the vehicle at around the same time ... and then soon after that the hail armor came out.
I agree , heard the siren's was going off in Maysville? P.S. I think that was the shortest tornado watch I have ever been in lol. At least I can sleep tonight ! lol
Because an apocalypse is heading straight for me!
Haha don't be nervous, be excited!! Where exactly do you live?
That hail was intense. We were watching the meso and kept hearing a thumping sound. Then soem nearby animals starting making weird noises (getting pelted with hail), we had to dive for the car. We then moved to the center of Maysville and rode out an awesome hail storm under a car port in the center of town. We did hear tornado sirens to our west while in Maysville. Consider we did this without a laptop (no internet or gps) it was like an old school chase. Even the smaller hail had some nice pop to it. The hail was very spiky, I believe we got atleast a few pictures of it, will post in reports in a few days when I get a chance. Will try an upload video to youtube tonight.
2008 is becoming the year of the hail.
Click my name to check out the video of the Hail in Maysville as I was riding with Curtis and the guys from Stream 1.
I made a time lapse of yesterdays storm in Norman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_Wl9uN78Q4
very nice Cors. That was a sweet storm!
Very nice Wes and Cors, those are amazing, great contrast with that time-lapse
What do ya'll think of tomarrow , Looking down hill to me .
Nice Cors!! See you next to a tornado in a few hours.
The models look amazing..I don't think destabilization behind the initial convection will be a problem. I'll add a blog post in the morning when the moderate risk is issued!
About to make the drive to Lubbock for a very conditional setup. Hey, thats what its all about though right!?
moderate now issued!
Wheres this blog post that was gonna be up when the mod risk came out? Haha jk.
Get us a tube...Could be mass chaos, and apocolyptic all in one....and Cors will be there!