News DetailModerate Risk issue for tomorrow!
Posted At: April 2, 2008 @ 9:28 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A moderate risk has been issued by the SPC for tomorrow (Thursday) across North Texas and South Oklahoma into western AR, for the risk of any outbreak of supercells including tornadoes. A very large trough will eject from the Rocky Mountain region tomorrow, with a dryline surging east across the Southern Plains south of a surface low forecast to track across OK. However, this morning's WRF appears to be trending towards the GFS, which ejects an initial shortwave early on Thursday and decreases the low-level shear slightly as a result. If this trend continues, then confidence is not as high in a widespread tornado event, but if the WRF trends back to last night's solution, then a tornado outbreak would be inevitable.
The 12z Wed WRF forecast for 500 mb and 850 mb for Thursday evening are displayed below. As can be seen in the right panel, the low-level jet is becoming much more veered and less strong in this new model run, with the main 850 mb low ejecting northeastward toward the Great Lakes Region. If this solution verifies, there still could be isolated tornadoes, but a widespread tornado outbreak would likely not verify. The next few model runs are key, so stay tuned for updates!
The 12z Wed WRF forecast for 500 mb and 850 mb for Thursday evening are displayed below. As can be seen in the right panel, the low-level jet is becoming much more veered and less strong in this new model run, with the main 850 mb low ejecting northeastward toward the Great Lakes Region. If this solution verifies, there still could be isolated tornadoes, but a widespread tornado outbreak would likely not verify. The next few model runs are key, so stay tuned for updates!
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another small tornado outbreak
just rain for chicago
I know this a a long way out but what do you guys think about next week for Thursday.
Just putting that out there.
I might be able to chase again thursday if this turns out well. I guess I can only hope for the best. The model runs sure can't come soon enough!
Could get some upper 60's and low 70's in Chicago ahead of a low early next week.
I want to see some large hail :D
I live in cordell,ok caught the great structure on storm that moved from retrop across rocky,ok Just did not have everything it needed until after dark when it went tornado warned will be watching for tommorow and we will be out there
Also we where on storm that briefly put down funnel sw of little city,ok in se ok on tuesday I found out i do not like chasing in se oklahoma could not get tor on film due to trees and hills think i will stick to western oklahoma