News DetailA Non-zero chance for tornadoes today over S OK/N TX!
Posted At: April 17, 2008 @ 10:22 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
If the morning RUC verifies I'd say there is a good chance for tornadoes from Lawton, OK to Wichita Falls, TX eastward, especially if storms can remain discrete and move off the frontal boundary. The low-level wind shear is forecast to be extreme, with 850 mb winds of 40-50 knots east of the front across N Texas and S Oklahoma (see below - 12z RUC for 00z this evening). The RUC also is showing explosive convective initiation across Northwest TX into south-central OK between 4:00 and 7:00 pm CDT. We'll definitely be chasing this event, so check out the tracker for live streaming video!
The SPC issued a slight risk over this area and southward to near the Mexican Border, with a 5% area for tornadoes over a majority of the risk area. This is a very conditional setup, but the potential exists for tornadoes if low-level moisture continues to increase slightly through advection an downward mixing, and if the surging cold front does not undercut the storms. If the RUC verifies, it appears that the front will surge rapidly over the High Plains, but with limited eastward advance. This solution would favor discrete supercells moving off the boundary. The WRF shows a much more progressive cold front, surging eastward to Eastern OK by evening. If this model verifies, we'll likely be dealing with a squall line.
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It's looking better than the NWS seems to be pushing across oddly enough.
Monday & Tuesday are looking awesome right now.. If I didn't have finals I'd totally look into heading down
I like it.... 'non-zero chance'
We're targeting a non-zero chance of tornadoes near Ardmore, OK around 21-00z. Hopefully we'll bag a textbook shelf cloud
Capt. Dave Holder, myself, and special guest Cors Kloppenborg are getting our stream set up on Stream 3. Hopefully we'll stay in areas of good coverage so we can bring you some great squall line action at the very least.
Good luck all. Looking forward to the streams. Keep safe and remember "Do not throw empty beer bottles into the side of the tornado spinning towards you."
Good luck you guys!!
I have a feeling your trackers are going to be a distraction from my studying, so hope you get at the least get some awesome looking clouds :)--it would be a good excuse lol
So Cors is with you guys huh? Thats awesome.
I been thinking...i might just drive down to Norman, and start banging on some doors looking for someone to chase/split expenses with. Reed i'll be knocking your down later. haha.
IS Cors part of the first extreme tornado tour? That would be awesome.
lol, non zero
I hate to burst anyones bubble, but this definently looks like a squall ine setup more than a tornado threat. The cold front is already approaching I-35 and no storms have even begun firing just yet. A severe thunderstorm watch is out for This area, but again not impressive to me.
Next week looks insane however!
The only downside with next week is that its flirting with bad terrain but yeah it looks awesome and it actually has been somewhat consistent for the last 4 days concerning the GFS
Yeah, we're definitely MCS chasing ;)
Stream 3 is up and down depending on 'net coverage. We're currently on US 70, heading west to Waurika from Ardmore. I'll try to keep the stream up as much as possible.
Cors!!!! - You made it! AAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Watch out for sheriffnados, guys. And mammatus. Reed always keeps Depends handy, so if you see any of those, he will be prepared. But that's only cause he's real smart-like about weather stuff.
SKgirl....I hate to be the bearer of bad news:
http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=f0ab12e9-1986-4035-81f4-27bf7a56a1d2&k=45739
Reed and Co. get tornadoes.....we get 3 day 50 cm+ BLIZZARD!!!!!!
MCS chasing on poker night. I don't think god will ever forgive you! lol I guess someone has to do it ;)
Bring home a monster! ehhh, shelf cloud that is.
The Dibble metro area better watch out. They're about to get CLOBBERED lol. Gonna be gridlock escaping the area. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!! =-O
Posted By Evan C | April 17, 2008 @ 4:29 PM #
SKgirl....I hate to be the bearer of bad news:
http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/news/story.html?id=f0ab12e9-1986-4035-81f4-27bf7a56a1d2&k=45739
Reed and Co. get tornadoes.....we get 3 day 50 cm+ BLIZZARD!!!!!!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Oh my god, I know, Evan!!! I heard about that already too. That isn't surprising for this province, but it could be insanely exciting if Regina gets that!!! :)
lawn trash
Next week will be much better. And if not, remember 2004 ...
The Cell in North Texas in Young and Jack counties is looking good. I live in Gainesville and about to head out. Most likely a big hail producer. Oh well..
Cors is joining you guys? Awesome. Next time, Brady, Donny, Heidi and myself should go with ya'll. Who's in favor of having a TV.net get-together someday?
I agree with Darrin. This season is shaping up to be an odd one at best. It was beautiful here in southwest KS yesterday, with plenty of moisture to fuel decent storms... but what did we get? A blast of cold, and it's only 44 right now, and damp. It's gloomy and cold weather that writers love... ;)
AJ, i'm surprised you didnt blame the curse of the cold as me. We just got through a couple days of barely above 0 C weather, and even at 9 am it was -5 C ...so, sorry lol
Yeah I am watching this line of thunderstorms to my east. They developed right over me, and produced some brief heavy rain. And once they got to the east of me they developed into storms.
There are a few storms of intrest in western north texas, but I don't think all the conditions are just right for tornadoes down there.
About 3:15 this afternoon we got ping-pong ball sized hail here on the SW side of the Kansas City area. Got some video that I will put on Youtube in a bit and most likely will post a link if anyone cares.
Good luck Reed with the chasing. Too bad im down here in gulf coast with the humidity up as usual (haha)
Update from Norman...just a lot of lightning pea sized hail brief periods of heavy downpours and TONS of low hanging clouds and scud taunting me!!! oh yeah and some mamatus too...but temperature dropped about 15 - 20 degrees in last hour and a half
Michael O - yah, let's see that video! Post a link when ready. ;) Thanks.
Im in Johnson county, tx, more storms approaching....again. ;)
Yeaaaa!!! I finally get to see some live streaming since the testing started!! GREAT!!!
Wow! Cors is there??!!
shoot-I think I just jinxed the streaming-its frozen!
wow-the streaming is great(working now)hope someone has a fuzz buster!!yipes!
Yeah the temperature has dropped substantially here as well. It is now 51 degrees with a chilly north wind.
However there are a few weak thunderstorms just to my southwest trying to head in my direction, but I doubt they'll sustain themselves.
that cell west of weatherford is packing possible softball size hail. reed better watch out or thier car is toast.
Here is the link to the video. Turned out in a poor quality for some reason sorry about that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbNHsC4BWwo
That tornado warned storm is heading straight into DFW, and could affect me with just a small turn. This could be bad!!
live feed from dallas: http://www.myfoxdfw.com/myfox/
This storm west of DFW has been looking incredible!! But, the cold front has been right under the storm :( The storm just occluded with 98kt inflow at 1700ft. It will be hard for the storm to recycle with the cold front right under it. Dallas might dodge the golden bullet once more, but its not over yet. Lets hope they are saved again.
HAHAHA OH WOW what is all over the road?
holy wow, that is some insane rain/hail they just drove through. you couldn't see squat for a bit there it was that hard. talk about fun times
amazing, looks like they're driving through a blizzard
Tornado Warning for Weatherford (Parker Co.) Tx. Large Hail and Rotation, moderately formed Hook Echo according to weathermen. Reports of Smashed Windshields, BB size Hail in Mineral Wells as it went thru there west of Weatherford... Take Cover Warnings there now...storm heading toward Fort Worth..
nice corepunch!
Wow it looks like they are driving through a blizzard right now lots of hail covering the ground
O SHI-
spotters reporting tornado touched down briefly just north of Aledo
uh oh ... windshield /:
Was that a shelf cloud they just showed on tv/nbc5?
http://www.nbc5i.com/videostream/15915876/detail.html
ok now NWS is sayin some isolated tornadoes. i cannot believe i missed that classic hailstorm!!!!! Now this system is finally getting a bit more exciting while i'm down here thinking about tomorrows weather here in Houston, which really only looks like some heavy rain...
They just sounded the sirens here... second time in a week! Gotta love Texas in April :)
yep, thats why you don't mess with Texas, just leave it as it is ;)
We lost another wind shield!
This was one of the craziest hail storms I've ever seen. It looked like a blizzard with 6+ inches of hail covering the ground! We probably had horizontal tennis balls for a few minutes, and Chris took one right in the leg. Thankfully it wasn't a few inches to the right
I'll post video when we get back to Norman. It will be INSANE!
haha - too bad about your windscreen, I guess insurance wouldn't cover that especially in your profession, can't wait to see the film. I've never seen hail bigger than a pea myself.
LOL that is one huge hailstorm i can't wait to see that video...
The 12z GFS totally called this! Can't wait to see pictures and video Reed. That storm almost hit me at my house!
Reed, I just missed your stream (unfortunately). That sounds CRAZY, I can't WAIT to see your video!!! :D
I just checked the GFS for next week, and Holy ****!!! Best chase week I've seen (even if it's in my short chasing career).
I know things can go wrong, but come on! At least one of the days has to give us a nice tornado outbreak! And its all relatively local for me :)
Hey Heidi, HAHA =) I'll put up my vid later. we saw a nice rotating wall cloud...but I cant wait to see reed's vid. I hear it's awesome. next week is gonna be insane AAAAA
Ahh, Reed. Keeping Auto Glass Shops throughout Oklahoma/Kansas in business for the past 10 years!
Next week looks AMAZING!!! Monday through Thursday are all driveable chases from Norman area!!! obviously this wont be a stationary 4 day outbreak but maybe well get a good 2 days out of this
Congrats on your first chase Cors! That storm looked incredible on radar.
Thanks Reed! I really got the taste for it now.
(thats a dutch saying)
Really nice Cors,congrats!
Why haven't you taken me along?? ;-)
I'm just waiting for the severe weather season to start down here. Have fun!