News DetailSevere weather outbreak likely today!
Posted At: March 31, 2008 @ 1:45 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
An outbreak of severe weather is likely across parts of the Central U.S. today (Monday), especially over eastern OK, northeastern TX, western AR, and Southwest MO, beginning early afternoon as a massive trough ejects from the Rocky Mountain region. While widespread large hail and severe straight-line winds will be the main threats today, there will be a window during early- to mid-afternoon for tornadic supercells across Eastern OK as a dryline/cold front move east. A potential limiting factor for tornadoes is the rapid eastward movement and weakening of the low-level jet with time as the afternoon progresses, due to the initial shortwave forecast to eject towards the Great Lakes during the day. However, 35+ knot 850 flow is forecast to prevail in the storm environment just east of the dryline over Eastern OK for at least a few hours until 21z, when the best low-level flow may propagate east of the storms. The SPC has issued a moderate risk for this area (see below):
As seen below in the GFS forecast 850 mb flow for 18z tomorrow, a strong 40+ knot low-level jet will still exist over the warm sector east of the dryline/cold front in Eastern OK into southeast KS, MO, and AR (where tornadoes will also be possible with any discrete storms). However, by 00z the western edge of the LLJ is forecast to be near the AR/OK Border, slightly east of the storms. Our plan is to target a window between 18 and 22z in central/eastern OK, where and when tornadoes will be most likely.
The GFS forecast 6-hr precip. for 00z tomorrow shows a very large area of convection stretching from IL south to TX. The storms in MO northward will likely be more linear in nature, with embedded supercells and bow echoes. Given very strong low-level flow, tornadoes will be possible with any of these storms as well. Further south across eastern OK, where the WNW-ly upper flow is more perpendicular to the boundary, supercells will be the primary storm mode. If the LLJ lingers further west through the evening, then the tornado threat will be enhanced further. Stay tuned for updates!
As seen below in the GFS forecast 850 mb flow for 18z tomorrow, a strong 40+ knot low-level jet will still exist over the warm sector east of the dryline/cold front in Eastern OK into southeast KS, MO, and AR (where tornadoes will also be possible with any discrete storms). However, by 00z the western edge of the LLJ is forecast to be near the AR/OK Border, slightly east of the storms. Our plan is to target a window between 18 and 22z in central/eastern OK, where and when tornadoes will be most likely.
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4km WRF shows a line of possibly discrete storms for tomorrow. I think myself and few others will head towards Ardmore to see what happens with the storms on the southern end.
I don't know what to make of the 850 wind direction. The eastern half of the country always seems to have better luck with veered 850 flow. Since Oklahoma was able to achieve convective temperatures today, maybe it will be able to do something special tomorrow as well.
Good luck to you.
There is a very obvious signature northeast of Stillwater (OK), but the cell is not tornado warned yet, just a Severe Thunderstorm warning is issued on it.
There will likely be a tornado warning on it in a couple of minutes. Take care!
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR PAWNEE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES...
AT 413 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ROTATION HAS INCREASED
WITHIN THIS STORM...AND SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...TORNADO
WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED. [...]
Source: NWS Tulsa
Tornado Warnings issued for:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
OKC113-311130-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-080331T1130Z/
OSAGE OK-
601 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OSAGE COUNTY...
AT 559 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WYNONA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS STORM...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.
POWER FLASHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED NORTHEAST OF HOMINY.
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...
PERSHING...NELAGONEY...TALLANT AND BARNSDALL.
NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS - TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU
WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A
SAFE PLACE!
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
LAT...LON 3630 9601 3631 9645 3633 9646 3632 9658
3637 9653 3641 9654 3639 9659 3652 9654
3678 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 248DEG 28KT 3651 9627
--------
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 645 AM CDT
* AT 604 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARNSDALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS IS
A DANGEROUS STORM...A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR COULD FORM AT ANY
TIME.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BARNSDALL...
AVANT...OCHELATA...VERA...RAMONA AND BARTLESVILLE.
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
LAT...LON 3682 9582 3645 9581 3643 9586 3644 9588
3644 9601 3641 9602 3639 9617 3662 9627
TIME...MOT...LOC 1106Z 244DEG 29KT 3650 9621
Source: NWS Tulsa
Tornado on the ground! power flashes reported.
EASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
A tornado was NOT officially confirmed to be on the ground.
These power flashes might have been strong wind related, but a nice lowering was reported by a storm chaser, but no funnel was observed.
7:39AM
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
739 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
OKC131-147-311300-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-080331T1300Z/
ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
739 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN ROGERS COUNTIES...
AT 737 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORM
THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR RAMONA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TALALA.
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR.
LAT...LON 3660 9568 3647 9567 3647 9594 3659 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1239Z 261DEG 28KT 3653 9585
This all means that I'm going to be glued to the computer all day again. Nothing better to do on monday.
Tornado Watch issued for much of central and northern OK. As much as I hate eastern OK, I'll proably skip class and be drawn into the jungle. Hopefully I can get on a storm west of 35 though.