News DetailTornado Outbreaks likely Sunday and/or Monday!
Posted At: March 29, 2008 @ 2:03 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The WRF and GFS now agree on a classic dryline tornado outbreak on both Sunday and Monday across the Southern Plains. A massive uncapped warm-sector with 1500-3000 J/kg CAPEs will prevail east of the dryline forecast to exist along the eastern TX Panhandle Border by 00z Monday, with a warm front extending ENE through southeast KS. A 40-50 knot low-level jet will develop near or shortly after 00z Sunday evening, thus any discrete supercells will have a high likelihood of producing strong tornadoes from Northwest Texas across western OK into southeast KS on Sunday evening. There is a high possibility of an outbreak of strong tornadoes overnight Sunday as a jet streak ejects from the Mexican Plateau and storms increase in coverage. The dryline will progress slowly eastward overnight Sunday into central OK by Monday afternoon. The warm sector will easily recover and become sufficiently unstable for supercells along and east of the dryline across North Texas, Central OK, into Southeast KS and MO from Monday afternoon through overnight. The WRF forecast CAPE for 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday are shown below:
The timing of LLJ intensification tomorrow evening near or shortly after 00z will be a huge factor determining the extent of the tornado outbreak tomorrow evening. However, low-level shear will certainly not be a problem on Monday, and a widespread tornado outbreak seems inevitable based on these models runs. The WRF forecast 850 mb flow for 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday are below. Note the classic dryline setup for both days!:
The SPC has issued a slight risk in their Day 2 outlook, but this will likely be upgraded to a moderate risk by tomorrow. We will definitely be chasing this event, and may try out our new and improved tracker on both days. Stay tuned for updates!
The SPC has issued a slight risk in their Day 2 outlook, but this will likely be upgraded to a moderate risk by tomorrow. We will definitely be chasing this event, and may try out our new and improved tracker on both days. Stay tuned for updates!
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, I like Woodward area staying close to 412 so I can shoot east if needed.
ok why did my post go to top lol
I am concerned about the SPC outlook they took me out of the slight risk, and still no moderate risk???????
Oklahoma City is about to get hit by a tornado!! A tornado-warned supercell is heading right taward there, where the Tenneseevs. Notre Dame girls leage is playing! Cloud this be like Atlanta?
wow... just wow
(i think this already posted by me.. but its not showing up)
a tornado-warned storm is about to hit Oklahoma, in about 10-30 min. This is perticularly bad because the Tennesee vs. Notre Dame game is going on right now. YOu should check it out..?
Also bragging rights if this thing does hit the city, because I predicted it!
one word for you Reed.....
"Groundscrubber"
How about 400+M2/S2
Kinda reminds me of Greensburg...lets hope the RUC does a better job with any cold pools!!!!
I like these model runs ALOT better then the last. Reed it's time gonna be ON!!!
WOOOOOO WHOOO
huh. I'm going to be travaling sunday night into monday to nashville. Lets see if thing pushes enough to get me to stay home! )I live in the Chicago Area. If the storms would just go in our rought, I could stay home and take pictures!)
even though theres like a 2% chance for me
WOOHOO!!! THIS IS IT!! FINALLY MAYBE SOME ACTION HERE!
Oh yes, spring is back to the sooner state. Yes you guy's out there!
Wow, I checked the outlook just now and wondered if you had heard about this, but seems you already know. Good luck to all the chasers and be safe out there! :)
My big concern about this is other then the possible tornadoes, it's probably gonna dump more rain onto places in the Midwest that don't really need the rain.
The last time I heard Lanny say "Groundscrubber" was the night of February 4th.
:-(
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
This is it guys!!! It's going to happen! and I am in the middle of all the action. I guess thats a god and bad thing:-/
Time to buy that Weather Radio. We are in the Bullseye.
Darn i Dont like it
Heidi,
I do try to reserve that dirty word. lol
Latest WRF run still painting GREAT convection by 0z with a strong dryline in place and helecity values now around 400-450M2/S2 I do see the chance of a few Groundscrubbers....could be strong and long track. But will have to wait and see after they release the sounding tomorrow AM.
Lan
Yeah...... Your right terrified. I am in the bullseye also. This is going to be major!
How's it looking for the Chicago area for Sunday and Monday? I'm in the 15% area for Monday but I'm honestly not quite sure what that means, just that I don't like it and I'm freaking out. Deathly terrified of thunderstorms actually, whether they be severe or not. Still haven't quite gotten over it since last time we had a bad storm out here, back in August 2007 I believe. Mom says I'm just being dramatic but I think it's more than that.
I'm in the Chicago area and I am just tired of squall lines. We need some supercell structures over here.
I agree Vincent, I'm getting a bit sick of everything forming a line and/or weakening and/or going way south or way north of us.
So it's looking like if we get anything out here (in TN) it'll be the leftovers from Monday... I just hope it's enough.
Holy cow... there's a Day 6 outlook out! Is there anything in that one?
i dont like the wording on the new outlook...maybe they took out the "strong tornado" part because it's usually a jinx...
Myself and Darrin Rasberry will be taking off and heading to Wichita Kansas where we will stay the night. Tomorrow we will head to far western Oklahoma and try to intercept any isolated supercells that may develop along the dryline during the late afternoon and will then chase all night long if necessary. Good luck to everyone chasing tomorrow and stay safe.
Craig
hey Vincent
where exactly are you
i live in the close suburbs of chicago
dupage county, carol stream, ring a bell??
anybody else celebrating earth hour today??????
well chicago will get some thunderstorms like in 2 days or so, maybe some heavy rainfall
Yup it does. I'm over in Romeoville by LOT.
i live in manhattan ks, maybe some severe storms here? WOOOOOOOOO WHOOOOOOO!
IT'S GONNA HAPPEN YESS!
Chanute, Kansas.
South-eastern corner. 30% action. It's gonna be quite a couple days, for sure. But it's what I wait for!
Gimme some!
Andy: send me some storms, when you get some, out here to western KS. We need the rain, preferably with considerable thunder and lightning. haha.
This looks interesting enough... me likey. ;)
Still looking good for tomorrow, although I don't like the current SPC outlook
Big days ahead, stay safe out there guys and good luck with the new camera...cant wait to see what you guys get with it
RUC looks WAYYYY better than GFS...has twice as much CAPE...more precip in oklahoma...3 km helicty at 450 and beyond in central ok...a lift of -7.39...which one is more reliable anyone know or is there no answer?
I usually don't rely on the RUC too much but 12z run breaks out a couple of cells by 00z this evening. However, 850mb winds are rather weak. I'll be heading to Clinton way too early as usual.