News DetailModerate Risk for today across East TX, LA, and South AR!
Posted At: March 18, 2008 @ 9:55 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The warm sector east of the cold front today will be characterized by very high wind shear but marginal instability due to modified lapse rates and cloud cover. It appears that a vast majority of the convection today will be disorganized and "junky" in nature, but the extreme low-level shear values could result in a few significant tornadoes over the Piney Woods of Texas into the jungles of Louisiana. More will be posted about this event as it unfolds, as well as pictures from the beautiful supercell from yesterday intercepted near sunset west of Coleman, TX.
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PDS out for NE Texas, SE Oklahoma, and most of Arkansas. Take cover Heidi!!!!
Im currently in Hot Springs, AR on vacation, just for reference.
Second PDS watch out now!! Looks like its going to be a big day!
I can almost guarantee that we're end up with a HIGH risk now... this is CRAZY!!!
ok, new day 1 out... And I stand corrected, they've just extended the Moderate rick farther to the north.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Im in lafayette, louisiana .. and the weather here is soo windy i can barely stand outside and the sky has a odd color to it.
Last night about 7:30 we had a tornado warning. No reports of touch down. However it looks like things might start to fire off here in about an hour with a lot of heavy stuff to our south west.
The DFW area ( They have just stopped all flights till 4:00 pm due to weather)looks to be priming up at the present and tracking our way. Also considering storms typically strengthen just before hitting Lamar county ( Could it be all the lakes and the red river help to feed these storms by having natural boundries in place to help storms in this area. As far back as i remember Lamar has always had very active weather but with this said i lived in Texarkana for 8 years and heard the sirens only twice but in this area in the same amount of time warnings where issued on 13 different occassions )so it could well be a very active afternoon here.
Everything is set for the outbreak, except the Lapse Rates, which are currently unacceptable. Dont expect much with the current rates, but if they go up, then this could get interesting.
I don't like the orientation of the shear. VERY surprised at the massive PDS watches issued.
The hodographs do not look very favorable for large tornadoes...but I've seen crazier things happen.
Reporting in for Shreveport, LA: Tornado watch, 20 mph gusts. Looking kinda dangerous out here, I think we can switch into high as well. We'll see...
that would scare me to be where you all are hope everyone is ok
I'm in Shreveport la, Looks like some good cells will soon begin forming
My grandmother live's in Conway Ar. she said the tv weatherman are all over the tv . Seem's they are still shook up from super teusday outbreak. On another note , we are up to 6.5" of rain with more on way.
I agree with Reed. Thought all along this thing for the coastal plain of TX was being way overblown by SPC. Seems to be panning out that way. Good call to chase yesterday and sit out today. Calling a PDS when one dosen't exist is not the way to improve public attention to severe weather.
just like after the may 3 outbreak , they will be jumpy for awhile .
I'm starting to like this one more.. I keep hearing Reed and everyone saying not to expect much, but when I walk outside, the air has a very oppressive feeling.. the last time I remember that feeling was November of '05, though this is a weaker feeling, I think it will be enough.. Time will tell!
Cells are starting to pop around me, might get interesting!
Downgrade to a Slight risk now... This is odd, it feels like a Moderate+ Risk day outside, and yet they keep downgrading... anyone feel like explaining?
Um, My guess is because there has not been one tornado report, yesterday, there were at least two or three that I know of. I left to chase at about 7:45 this morning, and stationed in Tyler Texas, I waited, Nothing happened. I was VERY surprised at the massive pds watches over Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas, I chased the first cell that developed at about 4:00 pm, it was NOTHING! Just some darker clouds, lightning, thunder, and very light rain, I then began to head towards another cell, that fell apart before I made it to it, I am almost home to Shreveport now, where there is a weak thunderstorm, Looks like I should of agreed with you guys reed and went out yesterday.
I dunno... 2 tornado warnings out now with a Severe T-Storm in the mix, and several bands of strong/severe storms heading my way.
WFUS54 KMEG 190124
TORMEG
ARC031-093-190215-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0077.080319T0124Z-080319T0215Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
824 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT
* AT 824 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CARAWAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MANILA...DELL...LUXORA...BURDETTE...GOSNELL AND BLYTHEVILLE.
.IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.
.THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS A STORM SHELTER. IF NO
STORM SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
.IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.
LAT...LON 3582 8970 3581 8974 3582 8977 3579 8979
3563 9028 3570 9028 3571 9035 3581 9042
3600 9004 3600 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 234DEG 39KT 3579 9026
$$
Looks like something no?
Lapse rates were poor in the moderate risk area. Also LI values were not that high. Just something I noticed.