News DetailTornadoes possible in Texas today!
Posted At: March 17, 2008 @ 8:42 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
While the tornado threat today is very conditional, the potential exists for large, long-track tornadoes this evening over central Texas if storms can remain discrete until the low-level jet intensifies this evening. A large uncapped warm sector with CAPEs exceeding 1500 J/kg is forecast to develop by this afternoon from extreme southwest OK southward into central TX (see 00z WRF forecast below left). The only complicating factor today is a lead shortwave that ejected last night to the Northern Plains, which will cause the low-level flow to temporarily weaken and veer this afternoon over the Southern Plains. However, as the main vort max ejects this afternoon, the low-level jet will intensify to 40+ knots east of the dryline near or shortly after 00z. The timing of this LLJ evolution is key for tornadoes today.
The SPC has issued a slight risk for the Southern Plains for this afternoon and overnight, with a 10% area for tornadoes from about Aspermont, TX southwestward to the Mexican Border. Our target will initially be the Abilene area, and we'll either adjust south or stay put as things evolve. Stay tuned for updates, and also to the forum for nowcasting/discussion/reports!
The SPC has issued a slight risk for the Southern Plains for this afternoon and overnight, with a 10% area for tornadoes from about Aspermont, TX southwestward to the Mexican Border. Our target will initially be the Abilene area, and we'll either adjust south or stay put as things evolve. Stay tuned for updates, and also to the forum for nowcasting/discussion/reports!
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Well Reed, I wish you a tube for your Birthday! Good luck and stay safe!
Hey Reed, I just wanted to say Happy Birthday!!! I hope you have a great day!
Reed. on i 35 going 2 i 20 . i will an eye out for ya . happy bd reed
Haaapy birthday to you, haaapy birthday to you, happy birthday dear Reed, happy birthday to you!
Hopefully you'll see a nice birthday tornado (but stay safe!) in the open field. Best wishes, Volker
HAPPY BIRTHDAY REED!!!!!
Drive safely and good luck!
happy b-day and good luck reed
An upgrade to a Moderate Risk is anticipated:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 171513Z - 171645Z
MUCH OF CENTRAL TX/TX HILL COUNTRY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL
MODERATE RISK WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
IN A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT IN VICINITY OF A
RETREATING DRYLINE THIS EVENING. REFERENCE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1
OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..GUYER.. 03/17/2008
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0437.html
Happy Birthday and good luck today in Texas.
In Ohio we are looking at 3-5 in of rain with this one which will cause major flooding after that 20in snow melt. Good luck and be careful.
Happy Birthday Reed, and good luck out there!
Wow! Happy Birthday to you Reed! What a great birthday present to find a great tornado this afternoon/evening. Be safe and have fun!
I found this unrelated video starred on youtube's front page. I thought you might like to see it.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=cqWZmTv5xgA
About time my own good San Antonio got some rain! We were in drought all of winter...I'll be sure to warn my family that there's a large storm ahead before they venture into Sea World for the day.
Happy Birthday Reed! Good luck today!
Happy Birthday from the Chitticks'
I say a fort worth tornado today! Happy birthday and be safe reed.
moderate has now been issued
happy birthday reed gets some good footage but be safe
Tanjoubi omedetou(Happy Birthday) Reed! I see you are already travelling, but hope you manage to fit some time to celebrate. As someone above said, hope the day awards you with a tornado or two. :)
Happy birthday Reed! What a nice gift ! A tornado! At least, that's what I'm wishing you for this special day ! Good luck and take care !
Happy Birthday, Reed! I wish you a nice looking tube today, that would be just an amazing gift!
Good luck and stay safe out there! Agreed with your target, I am "virtually" just west of Estland along I20.
Tornado warning called just west of Abilene, TX
It's starting, it seems, and the line is growing to join the bigger stuff in OK, parts of which are also severe.
Wow, I'm liking that cell up near Lawton. If I am not much mistaken... It may be showing two areas of rotation..
EDIT then again... maybe not. It still looks good though.
awesome storm
oh and happy birthday reed, you got a nice gift lol
my birthday is this wednsday
that you guys that passed us outside of Ansem? We're a few miles south of you still outside of ansem at a rest stop on 180!
WOW Reed nice timeing! Your B-day was on a mdt risk day! I wsh you a wedge!
Good luck and Happy Birthday Reed!
Some storms will begin firing in central texas soon, tomorrow looks like the big day though, I'm home today, heading to Marshall Tx Tomorrow, and going from there.
Happy B-day Reed!!!!
I hate to say it, but this outbreak so far, has been a bust....especially in OklahomaX(
Yeah I think it will start later tonight. Tomarrow looks better! check the SPC
OK i'm wrong cells already popin!
I see reed heading towards a cell southeast of abilene, looks like a good one, still though, tomorrow looks like the big day with a major tornado outbreak, And I am heading out to Marshall then Southwest from there.
ALthough, a tornado watch was just issued for east texas and arkansas, a few good cells popping,I am still staying home, heading to Marshall early morning tomorrow
New tornado warning just issued in northeast texas, bUt only radar indicated
nice hook echo in that storm.
New tornado watch now, 2 tornadoes have now been reported, can't wait till tomorrow, I'll be looking for some of you guys out here
Anyone get any tv stations live links yet?
Supercells are forming now across central and southern Texas.
Yeah, I'm watching those closely, a new tornado warning has now been issued.
Tornado warning for the cell south of abilene!
Hey all, looks like Texas is exploding finally... Unfortunately, its now dark there and as we all know, night chasing is pretty dangerous.
Reed, happy birthday and good luck.
I'm getting ready to head out to Marshall in about 45 minutes, just hooking up my laptop in the car for updates, and I will also spend the night there, and head out about 6:00 am
Whatever David drummond saw has sent him running, kinda seems like he mighta got freaked out.
He was on the same rd Reed was on when he went DC.
My guess is that David saw that there was another storm buliding further south. He's on a severe-warned one now ... just for the record. :D
Hey guys...
Looks like Oklahoma and Texas are exploding with thunderstorm development! The ones in Oklahoma have been quite the hail producers.
I'm under a severe thunderstorm watch until 2am CST....
must be pretty bad it seems the one he is on is getting stronger . even the ones south of him
I'm now in Marshall getting ready to go to bed, I'm getting up at 6:00 to start my chasing!
Happy late Birthday, hope chasing has been going well for ya. Wonder if this will keep up its intensity when it reaches East TN, im off Wednesday so if it happens here I will chase.
thanks for the birthday wishes! Unfortunately no tornado...but did get a rapidly rotating wall cloud west of Coleman near sunset. This storm came about as close possible to producing without doing so...this thing was right on the ground.
I'll have video up tomorrow
Hey Reed, were yall in Anson when the first tornado warning went out about 2ish? It was south of Sweetwater, I was right there but didnt spot anything. I did manage to snap a few pics after the cell pasted over I-20...here they are along with others from today/tonight
I'm praying for something out here in TN, but it's not looking good from what I'm hearing :(
hppy belated bday reed
Thanks Justin!
Great pictures Josh. Unfortunately we were too far north to intercept the first tornado-warned cell. Looks like a textbook wall cloud though. I heard it produced a brief tornado but have not yet found a picture. Did you see anything that looked like a tornado?
Reed ,
I stayed on I-35 / Denton , tried to chase the Paris storm , with no luck. Reed , are you going to chase the PDS watch area?
Nope sure didn't. I heard it was southeast of 70 and I-20 and I was right there. I was surprised when I heard the warning go out so soon then it was like what, 4 hrs till the next warned cell?