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Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast!

Posted At: March 15, 2008 @ 2:10 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The 18z RUC analysis maps below for CAPE and 0-1 km helicity tell the entire story!  A MAJOR tornado outbreak is likely this afternoon and evening across northern GA and SC, as a strong, compact vort max moves through the region.  A massive, uncapped and unstable warm sector is in place across the Southeast, which is a major ingredient for most significant tornado outbreaks.  As seen in the map below, CAPEs are surpassing 2000 J/kg across eastern GA!



The 0-1 km helicity analysis below definitely minimizes the importance of the previous statement, since we'd probably only need about 50 J/kg CAPE for large tornadoes today given the extreme low-level shear values of 500+ m2/s2 in the supercell environment!  The only bright-spot for the residents of South Carolina is that it appears the low-level shear drops of slightly to the east of GA, but this area of extreme low-level shear will likely propagate east with the progression of the vort max anyway. 



A tornado watch has already been in effect for several hours from eastern AL into western SC, with one particularly strong supercell moving across northern GA through 19z.  This cell has exhibited very strong, persistent couplets, and has even had reported tornadoes.  I would not be surprised at all if these tornadoes were large and damaging given the insane shear values in place.  Additional storms have been developing to the southwest of this parent storm, and these cells will likely become tornadic very soon.  Stay tuned for updates, and check out the Nowcasting thread in the blog for near real-time updates!

Entry Comments

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Derrik | March 15, 2008 @ 2:23 PM #

Looks like the fit is about to hit the shan here in a few hours, already a lot of cells popping up to the west of Atlanta.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Corey | March 15, 2008 @ 2:24 PM #

Yeah, that sucker is mean looking...I just got home from work and did a double take at the radar.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Derrik | March 15, 2008 @ 2:28 PM #

Just missed me to the north about 15-20 minutes ago by a few miles, was a beautiful looking storm from what I could see.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Derrik | March 15, 2008 @ 2:36 PM #

Looks like downtown ATL is going to get hit again, real ripe looking cell developing west of town, should be going through in about 20-30 minutes it looks like. Another cell north of that one is heading right for my area.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Heidi | March 15, 2008 @ 2:42 PM #

GEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!

My nephew is in Atlanta for the SEC torunament ... my BROTHER lives in the Columbia, SC area! I just tried calling them and can't get an answer!
AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This looks like a tornado emergency situation for Atlanta!

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By gerb131 | March 15, 2008 @ 2:43 PM #

ATL is under another warning for a tornado. Back to back, the last back to back I can remember was OKC back in the early 2000's I believe.
Derrik, stay safe and keep us updated.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Robbie | March 15, 2008 @ 2:43 PM #

Tornado warning in Atlanta, looks like it is trying to turn right, hopefully it misses downtown.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By caleb | March 15, 2008 @ 2:45 PM #

HIGH RISK NOW!!!!!!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By caleb | March 15, 2008 @ 2:47 PM #

TORNADO SPOTTED IN ALANTA LIVE FEED HERE!!!

http://www.11alive.com/

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By gerb131 | March 15, 2008 @ 2:48 PM #

Thanks Caleb.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Heidi | March 15, 2008 @ 2:50 PM #

HIGH RISK UPGRADE!!!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Heidi | March 15, 2008 @ 2:56 PM #

Sorry Caleb, didn't see you'd posted that already! ;)

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Robbie | March 15, 2008 @ 2:57 PM #

Tornado Emergency for Atlanta!!

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By TJ Doss | March 15, 2008 @ 2:58 PM #

Thanks for the Live Feed link to Atlanta. Does anyone have a link to the storms in South Carolina?

I was wondering how common Supercell Storms are in these areas of the south - does anyone know?

I know Atlanta was hit last night, but I'm betting that wasn't a supercell last night. I guess my question is, do they know what they are in for?

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By gerb131 | March 15, 2008 @ 2:58 PM #

So was it OKC the last major city that had back to back tornadoes. I want to say 03, 04 but can't say for sure.
Take care in the ATL

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Heidi | March 15, 2008 @ 3:04 PM #

It was definitely a supercell that hit Atlanta last night. I think someone has posted radar images of those cells in GA from last night.

I'm trying, but for the life of me can't find where a tornado emergency has actually been issued for ATL. It should be, though!... any link for that?

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By gerb131 | March 15, 2008 @ 3:05 PM #

Live feed on that link is amazing, the tower cam shot is ominous.
Don't see a tornado emergency for ATL.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Robbie | March 15, 2008 @ 3:06 PM #

They updated at 3:54 saying tornado emergency, then again at 3:56 with no tornado emergency.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By TJ | March 15, 2008 @ 3:17 PM #

Sorry - my bad - I'm reading now that it was a supercell in Atlanta last night. Watching the live feed from Atlanta, a 2-story home was demolished and there was a definite path.

Although, I'm also reading: "Officials with the National Weather Service now say a mini super-cell, not a tornado, damaged dozens of homes and some businesses in Douglas County Friday night."

People are disagreeing with this report though based on being there.
And the report says no one saw a funnel cloud - but the damage tells a different story.

But, back to the present . . .

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Eric | March 15, 2008 @ 3:40 PM #

The back-to-back tornadoes in OKC was in 2003, May 8 & 9

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By gerb131 | March 15, 2008 @ 4:02 PM #

Eric, Thanks I couldn't remember if it was 03 or 04. Weren't they strong like 3's or 4's too. ATL will prob be at least a 2 or 3 I would think.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By gerb131 | March 15, 2008 @ 4:04 PM #

Eric, Thanks I couldn't remember if it was 03 or 04. Weren't they strong like 3's or 4's too. ATL will prob be at least a 2 or 3 I would think.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Derrik | March 15, 2008 @ 4:07 PM #

Well I just got home from work, drove about 30 min out of Suwanee and back into Sandy Springs which is about 20 miles north of ATL and didn't see much, one area in Duluth still had piles of nickle sized hail on the ground and tree debris in the roads but that was about it. Looks like we are getting a little bit of a lull in the action now as the line appears to be moving south of town.

Kind of a let down though, I was hoping to get the camera out and get some good storm shots. About 3 hours of daylight left though.

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Zack | March 15, 2008 @ 4:10 PM #

Wow...this looks like a dangerous situation for the SE!

Yeah it was 2003 May 8 & 9....they were both rated F-4

Tornado Outbreak underway in the Southeast! Comment Posted By Eric | March 15, 2008 @ 4:42 PM #

Woah...Batesburg is getting slammed!

Actually, the tornado on May 8 was the F-4, the one on May 9 was an F-3.

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