News DetailSupercells possible today in Eastern OK!
Posted At: March 13, 2008 @ 10:57 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A shortwave trough will eject from the Southern Rockies this afternoon, bringing the upper-support necessary for severe storms today east of the dryline in Central OK. An upper jet streak, and the sufficient moisture will arrive relatively late (21-23z) in southeast OK, so it looks like convective initiation will hold off until at least 5:00 pm, but a strong cap may delay things until after that time. The RUC initiates convection in eastern OK after 6:00 pm, but between 6 and 7 pm explosive, isolated convection is forecast. A low-level jet of 30-40 knots will intensify ahead of the advancing shortwave (see 850 mb RUC forecast below), with CAPE values of 1500-2000 ahead of the dryline (see RUC cape forecast below).
While the cap will be a concern today, as well as the late arrival of the upper support and deep moisture (tied in with the strong cap), supercells will still be possible by very late afternoon and overnight across eastern OK into western OK - but these storms may quickly become elevated shortly after sunset, so the window for tornadoes will likely be rather narrow. The SPC has issued a 5% area for tornadoes, as well as a hatched area for very large hail. We'll be keeping a close eye on this event, and will likely head out and chase if convective initiation becomes imminent....but tomorrow (Friday) looks like the big event! Stay tuned for updates.
While the cap will be a concern today, as well as the late arrival of the upper support and deep moisture (tied in with the strong cap), supercells will still be possible by very late afternoon and overnight across eastern OK into western OK - but these storms may quickly become elevated shortly after sunset, so the window for tornadoes will likely be rather narrow. The SPC has issued a 5% area for tornadoes, as well as a hatched area for very large hail. We'll be keeping a close eye on this event, and will likely head out and chase if convective initiation becomes imminent....but tomorrow (Friday) looks like the big event! Stay tuned for updates.
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Sounds like ya have been getting many chases in early this year Reed and we still got a long way to go for the year. Well good luck for tomorrow and be safe as always if ya head out Friday.
It's only March and there is already a Spring-time pattern going on.
Sounds like fun. In Ohio its 54 and the 21in of snow is beginning to fade away hopefully for about 7 months. Still a few inches on the ground.
Have fun chasing and be careful as always.
it's 75-ish with a 44F Dew, and 36% humidity here in middle TN.
So what do you mean by friday is the big event? lol
this is just getting better and better
btw what do you think of monday through tuesday??????
hey guys,
I believe today won't be a major outbreak....I highly believe that a strong CAP will preclude any tornadoes.,,,but tomorrow could be a different story;)
However, the most interesting weather, is still yet to come. St. Patricks day could be a major severe weather event...still a ways out, but something that all us stormchasers should continue to monitor..
Pack your bags and fill the car up.
New MD out!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST
LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 132051Z - 132215Z
MONITORING FOR INCIPIENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASING
SEVERE RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST
TX...INTO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA. IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED AS EARLY AS 22Z.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OK/WEST
CENTRAL TX AT MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW
IS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OK...WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE/TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX JUST
WEST OF DALLAS-FORT WORTH. AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOIST TRAJECTORIES HAVE LEAD TO A STEADY NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN TX/SOUTHEAST
OK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MODEST MOISTURE AS CHARACTERIZED
BY 50S TO LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AS OF 20Z. BENEATH A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PER 12Z RAOBS/RUC
SOUNDINGS...EXTENSIVE STRATUS HAS RETARDED HEATING THUS FAR
COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...AND THIS CLOUD
COVER/INHIBITION COMPLICATES THE CONFIDENCE IN TRUE SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS...IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
OK/NORTHEAST TX BETWEEN 22Z-01Z GIVEN INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION...WITH A RISK OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL GIVEN
THE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..GUYER.. 03/13/2008
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
35869604 35859450 34879340 32279376 31859624 32509719
33889679
This has nothing to do with storms, even though I have been following this, but...
Some guy in my neighborhood has barricaded himself in his house with a gun and heavily armed police have surrounded the area. Helicopters are circling over my house. www.wfaa.com has more info for anyone who's interested.