News DetailSevere weather outbreak possible on St. Patrick's Day!
Posted At: March 11, 2008 @ 10:22 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A strong vorticity maximum is forecast to amplify over the Rocky Mountain Region and eject east across the Plains on Monday, March 17. Model runs over the past few days have been very consistent with the timing and strength of this feature, so confidence is high that severe weather will develop somewhere across the Southern Plains east to the MS River Valley early next week. A strong low-level jet will develop ahead of this vort max, which will transport Gulf moisture northward and generate favorable low-level shear for tornadoes in the warm sector. The only possible limiting factor for severe weather with this system is the quality of the moisture return, especially for the Southern Plains, with dewpoints struggling to make the 50F mark. Stay tuned for updates...
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Hey! You jumped ahead of this weekend. Fri-Sun looks like trouble for the plains through the Carolinas! =-O
I think you just want to chase on St. Patrick's Day, Reed! ;)
even if you did chase on saint Patricks day, you would probobly get in a wreck with a drunk driver on the way back home.
Should be fun to see how this thing ejects out onto the plains. I personally prefer the GFS solution with possible cold-core setup in KS come Monday, but like brett said in the forums, ECMWf solution of holding it back may allow for better moisture return.
ahh.. I love the smell of Spring (-time storms) in the morning ;)
looks like Friday might be interesting as well
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
Yeah, me and Donny have been watching and discussing this as well... looks like it has a lot of potential!! WOOHOO St. Patricks Day chase:P
This has the potential to be catastrophic. A lethal combination of severe weather, a celebration of my heritage, and Reeds birthday all augmented by the availability of copious amounts of booze and a temporary suspension of the societal taboo against drinking in the AM. All this, plus its happening over spring break. Good god, this is going to be nuts.
OMG I can't wait.
first things first guys and galls- we still have to get threw the severe potential friday first
Reed, I expect significant hail damage to the Tahoe by next Wednesday at the latest.
Check this out, what am I looking at here, just some heavy rain?
from what the top of the radar screen tells me, looks like heavy snow. up to 20 cm an hour.
And of course it looks like it'll dump snow up in the north. Just when we actually were above freezing finally yesterday and to the surprise of many here, the temp was about 42F today. But of course it's still winter despite being March, so we'll have to see.
some please tell me i am dreaming
http://beta.wxcaster.com/NAMSevereArchive.php?datetime=2008031200Z&fcsthour=75&type=0-1KM_EHI
Looking forward to chasing with Reed this spring on the extreme chase tours! Hope to meet some of you from this board. I cant take off from work for a long period of time so I am planning on chasing last minute when the conditions are "right".
right now, Im looking at the small potential for the chicago area for either severe storms or two heavy snowstorms, heres why. If you watch the later protion of the loop, you can see that the line of red disapates into two lines, which all seem to hit Chicago.. Hopefully there gonning to turn out as severe storms!
Happy stormchasing!
What am I looking at Donny? I've never seen that before.
Jake i believe that is the EHI(Ehanced helicity Index) values from the sfc to 1km high....and the 7.3 which is a very high number is basically on top of Little Rock AR i believe.
You know i though "ehanced" looked weird...Now i figured it out...i meant Enhanced*
Haha.
you got it ben-gotta love the energy helicity index- you know in all seriousness- i hate saying this so pardon me- i think we should disregard what the gfs model has been showing- it has been very inconsistant handling this upcomming severe weather threat friday/saturday as far as wind speeds go- while the euro model and wrf model has been handling it very good- and that what i want to point out is that to be an ace at severe storms- you have to choose what the best model solution is- and that includes how consistant each and every model run is
Corey your forget to add a certain someone will be in town!
Ah hah! I knew I'd see something in March! It's a good month so far. haha. I'd love to chase anything relatively close... hopefully I get the chance next Monday.
ahh, ok, ty guys :)
I'm still holding out hope though, the SPC is saying we've got good conditions for Supercells out here. I'd love to see one of those in the daytime
What do ya'll think of the slight risk area for tomarrow
Well Jason, right now it's looking pretty good over the Arkansas/Oklahoma border, and into the very NE corner of Texas. And looking decent over Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma, and most of Arkansas and Louisiana
looking good for Monday/Tuesday: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
I feel there may be a couple spin up's , but I think I will hold off til Monday. Plus we have a LARGE wild fire to are west that has been burning for 24 hour's now. ( media say it's out, very funny)
I am here in Chattanooga, TN and they are predicting us to get pounded pretty good. What is the word from this source? I find this website is a lot more accurate than a lot of the news stations in the area.