News DetailTexas tornadoes possible on Sunday!
Posted At: March 1, 2008 @ 1:54 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The Friday evening WRF and GFS runs are trending slower and slower with each consecutive run with the progression of the strong vort max that will eject from the Southern Rockies on Sunday. Given this slower solution, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur further west, allowing for a strong low-level jet to counter the southward surge of the cold front. Therefore, a dryline will likely form across West Texas on Sunday extending south of a surface low forecast to track rapidly eastward through the afternoon and evening, generally along I-20. WRF forecast loops for 850 mb and the surface are shown below:
Given the massive uncapped and unstable warm sector forecast to develop across Central Texas on Sunday, with a LLJ of 40+ knots just above the surface by afternoon, tornadic supercells will likely develop in the vicinity of the triple point and southward along the dryline. However, as is always the case with early season setups in the Southern Plains, there is still a high probability the cold front will surge southward faster than predicted by the models, undercutting any surface-based convection that initiates. But...the models could verify for this event! Stay tuned for updates as this severe weather event unfolds!
Given the massive uncapped and unstable warm sector forecast to develop across Central Texas on Sunday, with a LLJ of 40+ knots just above the surface by afternoon, tornadic supercells will likely develop in the vicinity of the triple point and southward along the dryline. However, as is always the case with early season setups in the Southern Plains, there is still a high probability the cold front will surge southward faster than predicted by the models, undercutting any surface-based convection that initiates. But...the models could verify for this event! Stay tuned for updates as this severe weather event unfolds!
Calendar
Categories
this will be a tornado outbreak
not only in texas, maybe a little in OK, then on monday in Louisiana, cool, hopefully no fatalities or injuries
A year ago today a tornado was hitting Enterprise AL, Paul I know one thing it's not gonna be like April 3 1974! it may be a repeat of February 19.
So does anyone know why the GFS is only showing .25 in rain in TX and OK or am i dumb and reading it wrong?
I am looking at S/C Oklahoma . I feel there will be a few in this area. thinking of targeting the Ringling area or a little south and west . Ez that is a good question.
Jason
Where oh where is everyone? In Ardmore , Ok . temp 77 , dew pt 59 . Slight risk area moved up to okc area. Reed where are you thinking you are going tomarrow , friend's from Dallas are comeing up to Ardmore
I've been warning the people I know who live in and around the DFW area to monitor the weather, just in case. Don't think -the Doomsday EF5 will hit Dallas- like in all those disaster shows and all, but it's good to be prepared, I think.