News DetailSunday severe weather event update
Posted At: March 1, 2008 @ 10:01 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
The WRF model continues to slow-down the upper trough for tomorrow, and accordingly, the surface cyclone is forecast to be stronger and further north than in previous model runs. The WRF is showing a classic dryline bulge across Southwest Oklahoma by 00z just south of a triple point in the eastern Texas Panhandle, and the best low-level shear is forecast to be just east of this feature with 150+ 0-1 km helicity values over a large part of western OK. The triple point and attendant dryline bulge can be seen in the WRF forecast CAPE and 0-1 km helicity for 00z tomorrow:
Given this slower solution, the low-level jet is forecast to back to a more southerly if not SSE-ly direction by 00z tomorrow in response to the stronger low-level cyclone. This backing of the LLJ will make the hodographs more favorable for tornadoes given a northeasterly storm motion.
The only potential limiting factor for a widespread tornado outbreak over the Southern Plains tomorrow is a rather strong capping inversion, which is forecast to limit surface-based convection south of dryline bulge. The WRF also fires a strong line of convection well east of the dryline in northeast TX into southeast OK by 00z, which may be due to the lead shortwave forecast to eject ahead of the main "energy", but is still hard to believe given the lack of any well-defined surface convergence boundary. We'll likely be playing southwest OK/northwest TX near the bulging dryline but far enough south of the triple point such that any storms will not be undercut.
Meanwhile, as this system moves east towards the central Mississippi River Valley overnight Monday, heavy snow and near blizzard conditions are likely in eastern OK into southwest MO, with up to a foot of snow accumulation possible. If the severe weather setup does not look as favorable on Monday, we may document this snowstorm after the severe weather event in the Southern Plains tomorrow. Stay tuned as this insane weather situation unfolds!
Given this slower solution, the low-level jet is forecast to back to a more southerly if not SSE-ly direction by 00z tomorrow in response to the stronger low-level cyclone. This backing of the LLJ will make the hodographs more favorable for tornadoes given a northeasterly storm motion.
The only potential limiting factor for a widespread tornado outbreak over the Southern Plains tomorrow is a rather strong capping inversion, which is forecast to limit surface-based convection south of dryline bulge. The WRF also fires a strong line of convection well east of the dryline in northeast TX into southeast OK by 00z, which may be due to the lead shortwave forecast to eject ahead of the main "energy", but is still hard to believe given the lack of any well-defined surface convergence boundary. We'll likely be playing southwest OK/northwest TX near the bulging dryline but far enough south of the triple point such that any storms will not be undercut.
Meanwhile, as this system moves east towards the central Mississippi River Valley overnight Monday, heavy snow and near blizzard conditions are likely in eastern OK into southwest MO, with up to a foot of snow accumulation possible. If the severe weather setup does not look as favorable on Monday, we may document this snowstorm after the severe weather event in the Southern Plains tomorrow. Stay tuned as this insane weather situation unfolds!
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Good hunting Reed. I am leaveing in morning ( giveing that nothing changes) I will probly be in the Lawton area. Then play from there. I will keep an eye out for ya!
Where else on Earth can you chase tornadoes and a blizzard on the same day?
gotta love the Southern Plains! :D
I am definently looking forward to tomorrow.... Severe weather and snow all in my area:D
Good luck tomorrow Reed - drive safely and keep us posted!
What do I get in Ohio? RAIN plain boring RAIN. Good luck tomorrow and the following days.
I'll be following your progress, have you got the problems with the live tracker fixed?
The tracker has been working fine so far with mozilla. I've heard of some issues with IE with the map not displaying...so if you have problems you may just want to use mozilla (can be downloaded for free from mozilla.org).
oh yeah finally i can chill near my house and get ready for once!!! are you concerned its going to be a linear event and if its not linear are you expecting most supercells that blow up will have heavy rotation? and also waht time would you anticipate this to happen if it does so?
Insane weather setup is right. My friend lives in Tulsa, she ought to be loving this. Stay safe Reed and CO!
DAMN! This is an increadible setup!
What makes it even better, is I get to watch the show from my own house:D
Have you guys seen the new SPC outlook. Looking good and I am in the 5% area for tornadoes!
What really interests me is the winter weather. The NAM and GFS are begining to show signs of heavy snow possibly right here in central Oklahoma. The NWS was also talking about including central and northern Oklahoma in a winterstorm watch. They say 4-8" of snow will be possible in this area! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! I will defenintly get video of this!
I've been using mozilla for quite some time now and I must say I like it more and more everyday! I have had no problems with my firefox at all.
This looks to be a crazy event for you guys! Maybe you'll get that Okie snow you've been wanting Reed!! Good Luck and stay safe out there!!
Have a good one Reed!
ps check out frontpage liveleak..top right side =)
uh oh monday is already been upgraded to moderate risk
gl and stay safe reed and company. btw, we have lots of snow up here if you would like some...ill send it down...you have to pay the freight though lol.
I'll try loading in firefox (and mozilla if required) when/if you guys head out. Best of luck.
I will be chasing this event Monday, Looks good, spc has issued a 45% of severe. I will be heading to Ruston, La and traveling from there. And then for Monday night I will try to catch some snow showers in northwest, la!
Yeah it may be worse tomarrow the've issued a mod risk. I guessing the tornado thret will be about 10% HMMMMMM maby they'll put out a high risk. I'm heded to church there is a small storm comming to me!!
Hey guys.
Again, just to let you know, that zack who said he was chasing is not me;)
I will be right here in oklahoma watching it all. I am still in the 5% area for tornadoes. Then I have a winterstorm I have to watch. I am forecasted 2-4" of snow!
Zack what part of Oklahoma?
Sulphur here. I am stay put for now. Going to wait and see what fire's.
wow, that is the biggest change in an SPC outlook I've seen in as long as I can remeber! last night, it was just looking like another gulf coast outbreak over here, but now, it's the entire Deep south!
looks like I might get to see something monday after all :D
BTW Zack and zack, you might want to put something else in you name so that people can tell you apart easier, for example, I changed my name to "Jake (in TN)" after someone else posted with the name "Jake", if you both live in OK, try something else.
Just an Idea :)
I am in south Oklahoma city Jason.... I plan on sitting here as well and see what fires.....still looking very good.
i'm waiting for this storm to blow up, it'll be a big one today/tonight. Chicago will finally be in the 50s
and gat some thunderstorms, but still nothing severe here.
Wow new MS discussion in my area. Hope some storms develop soon as the temp. seems to be going down now.
temp in 60's, dew pt in 60's. clearing to the west . I like this .
When are you guys going to start streaming live chases? I'd pay $9.95 for a month's worth of chases! So would probably a few 1000 internet virtual chasers! ;)
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX INTO WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021917Z - 022145Z
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.
UPPER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BUT...AS STRONG UPSTREAM POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...DIFLUENT AND CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. BENEATH THIS
REGIME...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY BECOMING
FOCUSED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...SOUTH OF COLD FRONTAL
INTERSECTION THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS IS WHERE MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN INHIBITION...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 21-23Z.
THIS TIMING SHOULD PROCEED COLD FRONTAL SURGE...EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ON THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF A BROAD 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SIZABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
i'm just chillin in Lawton it feels WONDERFUL outside right now...feels like a good spring storm about to brew
I will be heading to Lawton Ok. via hwy 7 soon. Anyone heard from Reed?
EZ , what part of town are ya? I will probly wait on Cache rd near K-mart . I worked on a hotel over there , so I know I can get data
im at motel 8 in a 01 black dodge ram with a white dent on the side
Reed are you gonna be chaseing today? Storms are ready near laverne OK it has a slight hook
We were just detained by Ft Sill Military police for having our camera on going through the check-point! 30 minutes behind schedule now! All because of a wrong turn.
MASS CHAOS!
Reed ya don't have your live tracker on!!!! bu that is a VERY nast cell no warning on it.....
EZ , I will keep an eye out for ya. I am in a gold 98 gmc ext cab , with 4 ant. and a anamometer on top.
Thunder storm watch for NW Oklahoma out but, I am going to stay in S.W. to south central area.
My call sign is KE5PCA
yes the storm in the Fort Supply area is one to keep an eye on .
Ok that storm I was talking about is now a svr T'storm warning.
IT IS NOW A TORNADO WARNING!!!!!
tornado warning - Buffalo , Oklahoma
Good Call Caleb !!! Kwtv tracking live
If anyone has any links to TV live-streams, please post them. :)
Hiedi,
KFOR channel 4
kwtv channel 9 ( home of Gary England )
koco channel 5
4 is live on air
Good looking storm in Altas area. hitting the raod.
jason young
tornado watch in my area . EOC sending me west to Lawton , I know I should have left earlier. lol.
Reed - I am glad the tracker is working! We are watching your progress-stay safe.
Thanks Jason ... but, really what I meant was to provide the link, as in the web address. I just checked KWTV a few minutes ago and they were not live...??? It makes it easier on everyone and saves time searching.
KFOR-I don't have sound-but the live radar is blinking like crazy!!
sheesh-I meant www.kfor.com-station has the radar blinking away-but no sound
Go here for the latest...
http://www.news9.com/Global/category.asp?C=112029&nav=menu681_1
Looks like a pretty intense couplet still pushing through norther OK!!
Man I've tryed lots of live feeds and NO SOUND!!!
I just spoke to Reed and he said it's happening! He is watching a TEXTBOOK wall cloud near Clinton OK!
Textbook is always nice.... lol. WOOHOO!
The storm that Reed is on looks like it's becoming a monster!! Good luck guys! Stay safe!!
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO TEXTBOOK!!! no warning on this!
Methinks it needs a warning... what says everyone?
where you guys see these tv streams at? I can't find them.
They just issued another tornado warning (I think this is right where Reed is?)...
TORNADO WARNING
OKC011-043-022315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0004.080302T2239Z-080302T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
439 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 515 PM CST
* AT 439 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OAKWOOD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CANTON...EAGLE CITY...OAKWOOD AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANTON LAKE.
No, Reed is South of this warning. This cell is the next one to the north of them...
LIVE VIDEO NOW...
http://www.news9.com/Global/category.asp?C=112029&nav=menu681_1
693
WWUS54 KOUN 022252
SVSOUN
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
453 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
OKC011-043-022315-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080302T2315Z/
DEWEY OK-BLAINE OK-
453 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
BLAINE AND EASTERN DEWEY COUNTIES...
AT 453 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO 4
MILES NORTH OF EAGLE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CANTON...EAGLE CITY...OAKWOOD AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANTON LAKE.
LAT...LON 3614 9856 3593 9834 3586 9869 3593 9875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 225DEG 39KT 3601 9856
Simon saw a tornado on the cell near Watonga...it looks like Reed is on the one further south. I'm not sure if he's seen anything; unfortunately I've been stuck at work all afternoon.
This early taste has me giddy about my first Oklahoma storm season.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 85
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
605 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
TORNADO WATCH 85 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC035-059-085-093-097-113-121-133-139-143-147-181-217-221-231-
237-251-257-337-363-367-397-417-425-429-439-447-497-503-
030800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0085.080303T0005Z-080303T0800Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE CALLAHAN COLLIN
COMANCHE COOKE DALLAS
DENTON EASTLAND ELLIS
ERATH FANNIN GRAYSON
HILL HOOD HUNT
JACK JOHNSON KAUFMAN
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
ROCKWALL SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL
STEPHENS TARRANT THROCKMORTON
WISE YOUNG
$$
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...
Don saw the tornado as well...he said it crossed the road only 1/4 mile from him! We were on the cells further south...one looked INCREDIBLE early on and then died from cell mergers. Don will have his video on tv.net in a few hours!
That should be great video...I heard it had fantastic structure before it broke down. I'm about to go out on my porch and watch the front blow through...drive safe!
WICHITA HAS IT"S FIRST SEVER WEATHER ALERT TODAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S ABOUT TIME. HOPE YOU ALL ARE HAVING FUN CHASING IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
Did you get anything on film? Lot's of snow coming this
wk. Cold as well.
Good luck hunting.
Firefly
It seems as if All the chasers are meeting up in Chickisha...Reed and them were a few miles back on the tracker...but now its disconnected. =/
Areas of rotation showing... i think
wow i'm surprised there are still no tornado reports
Heh, there's apparently even enough instability in Wisconsin that we have a line going from just north of Green Bay all the way to the southwest. I was startled by the flash outside, and as I was going to check the radar, heard the tell-tale rumbling.
We already have a winter weather advisory and apparently a flood advisory now from this rain in addition to the snow melting from the almost 40 temps today.
oh wow, I've been watching the radar loop now since I wondered why the line didn't move over yet. It looks like the whole thing is stationary, but is extending towards the northeast, either the storms are moving that way or the line is building out.
And it seems OKC has a Tornado Warning on it -
OKC109-030215-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-080303T0215Z/
OKLAHOMA OK-
752 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY...
AT 752 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE 44 INTERCHANGE SOUTHWEST OF THE
OKLAHOMA STATE FAIRGROUNDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BETHANY...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA CITY...
NICHOLS HILLS...THE VILLAGE AND WARR ACRES.
LAT...LON 3564 9752 3544 9744 3539 9765 3550 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 241DEG 25KT 3547 9757
The OKC warning looks purely precautionary at this point.
I've been watching KOCO streaming. Lots of wind. They are going back to regular programming right now.
It's blowing over Norman as I type this. Pretty significant precipitation and wind gusts along with some small hail; everything is very obviously linear though. I got absolutely drenched running to my car to grab my phone, and my sweater smells like wet dog now. Clearly not one of my finer moments.
Didn't you learn in physics that it's better to walk in the rain? You get less wet from walking than running.
wow, tomorrow keeps looking better and better... What is the chance of a High risk on Monday do you guys think?
i can pretty much guareentee there will be one jake
There will be tornados on Monday
lol, I was afraid you'd say that, but I can't exactly say I'm unhappy :/
Hey guys, go to CNN.com, they have a video of a Tornado in Canton Oklahoma, I think it's from today, but I'm not sure.
Yeah so I am going to give the SW OK cells an A for effort earlier. I saw many wall clouds many lowerings, notches, even organization that almost "wedged" down and had a notch coming down(it was a TWarning SW of Fort Sill). As for the "Tornado" that couldve been in OKC i drove straight into it on my way back and it was just extremely heavy precip and winds no hail at all i dont know why they did that it was a massive squall. i drove back to norman and I saw 2 literal signs that depicted wind damage. 2 signs to restauraunts by 1240 and 135 junction were kinda slanted. other than that not much. And if anyone in the norman or greater OKC area is wanting to go to LA/MS/AR tomorrow and needs/wants someone to pitch in on driving or gas or whatever pleeeeaaaassseee email me. ezra.weygant-1@ou.edu I want to go but my friend cant and im not going by myself to unfamiliar/bad terrain
Well my night was terrible , In Ratliff City my trany started slipping . Just got in out of chevy shop for 750.00 , sad . Wish I could go to La. ( worked Katrina rebiuld Love the area ) . I do see a high risk for tomarrow. Wicked looking storms to my west , so I am shutting down ( with my luck today ) . Have fun and stay safe
Don's video will be up soon.
We had some issues uploading it earlier at a Wifi spot...but it should be available soon on Youtube.
It was an amazing tornado.
We're still trying to decide on tomorrow...we may have to head all the way to LA and are concerned the frontal surge. We'll see what the GFS shows.
Reed,
Do you think we will see anything worth chasing in GA on Monday night/ Tuesday morning?