News DetailTornado Outbreak likely today!
Posted At: February 5, 2008 @ 4:59 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
Since we're about ready to head out the door for our target area, I don't have much time to go into detail, but very little has changed since yesterday morning. A potentially significant tornado outbreak still seems likely given the massive uncapped warm sector and widespread 250+ m2/s2 0-1 km helicities from extreme Northeast Texas to as far north as southern Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk in their initial Day 1 Outlook, with the possibility of being upgraded to a High Risk. We'll have the tracker up and running for as long as we have data connection, and stay tuned for updates as this dangerous weather situation unfolds.
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Godspeed guys!
I'm sooooo jealous of you guys right now! HIGH risk! O man and me and my dad cant chase cus he is on a plane to Georgia for work.
how can anyone sleep with the prospects for severe weather/tornadoes as high as it is Today. Heck i remember last June up here in Duluth we were under a high risk, and i didn't sleep at all the night before the high risk day, i was so pumped, also nervous, cuz i've never seen a high risk up in Northeast Minnesota before, until that day. I kept saying to myself, can this actually happen up here? take care everyone and be safe/careful for anyone in the mod risk area Today and for those who are chasing!!
Awww.... I want that high risk to move NE just a bit, I really would like to be among the ranks of the people who have filmed a tornado. Wh knows... I might just be the youngest lol
i wish i was down in that risk area Today, argh! Oh well, perhaps in 3-4 months will have a mod/high risk day somewhere in Minnesota.
I'm about a county north of the high risk area, but my dream sleep did not know that. Most vivid tornado dream/nightmares ever.
On another website I "predicted" the first high risk for Feb. 18th for the Arklatex region. I never expected the first of the year to be in (almost literally) my back yard.
Jake, anyone else who is in the moderate risk area, please be sure - SURE - you and your family has a plan of action in case of a tornado warning. These storms will likely be moving EXTREMELY fast, so time is everything. I would like to invite you guys to read this story from a very well known chaser. As he strongly emphasises, SECONDS DO SAVE LIVES. This is the story of how Brian Stertz and Jeff Piotrowski out-ran (ON FOOT) a violent F-3 tornado. This is straight out of _Twister_ ... ironically enough. Not easy reading on a day like this, but if it gets some people to take this set-up more seriously, and gets them to have a plan in order, it is worth it.
http://vortex-times.com/92201chase
And guys ... YOU HAVEN'T GIVEN US A TARGET AREA!!! :P
SPC has upgraded to High Risk!!!!
www.SevereStudios.com actually has a real camera streaming video right now! Unbelievable.
I hope that SevereStudios.com can make it all the way to Arkansas.. I want to see some tors live on the internet!!!
Looks like they are blogging about it.
Be safe Heidi! are you heading out today?
lucky me im smack dab in the high risk
I am heading out, but am sticking close to home (tri-county area). I don't NEED to really go anywhere today! I'm on the western edge of our viewing area so I see the storms first. I'd like to keep close to home so I can let our team know what things look like from a ground-truth aspect. Also, because of the severity of the situation, I feel a strong responsibility to stay in my area to be a spotter; people will need all the lead-time they can get today.
AND it's SUPER (CELL) TUESDAY!!!!!!
right on heidi , super (outbreak) tuesday
Wow Heidi, that's some story...
Yeah, this one is really serious, but we don't have anywhere better to go.
wow, first high risk of the year!
The best thing, Jake, is that you know WHERE to go (and where NOT to go, too!) given the circumstances.
I am going to go vote in a minute. I've put all the neighbors on alert! (We all share the same shelter a mile away!)
have fun heidi- i'll be on the radar - in face i already am
Yep :)
I'm waiting untill the 1630z outlook. I'm hoping they'll extend that HIGH risk farther to the NE. I know I shouldn't be wanting it to come here, but I can't help it. This is the closest I've gotten to a high risk in a while, so I want to make it last.
Where exactly is that Heidi? I don't know anything about how tornados are affected by the topogrophy of the land... the most I know is not to be near windows, doors, or outside walls lol
Hey Heidi and Donny and all the rest in the area U all take care and be safe please. Who will answer my questions if you guys aint there...
Those out chasing hope you guys get great footage. Go read the link Heidi posted wait till its too late..
U all have a great day
you prolly will later on jake as the air gets more volitile and storms start blwoing all around you
i'll be on the radar henri- so ask away i'll answer it to the best of my ability
You're cool, Jake. I was just trying to tell ya that you already have the right idea. Meaning, if you don't have a basement, you take the next-best option if that's all that you can do.
This is a day when I wouldn't try to think too much about topography affecting storms, though. There are too many people who still think that they can't get a tornado because (_Insert Folk Wisdom Here_)... When I went to spotter training for the first time, after the 1+ hr seminar was finished the instructor opened things up for Q & A. After sitting through this entire presentation, there were a few people who (literally) still had the "I thought you couldn't get a tornado if you were on the ___ side of a river" type-questions. The NWS instructors who do spotter training earn their pay! :D
Oh yeah, I still need to go vote!
Well, depending on how much my brothers are teacher pays attention to the weather, I may be able to heard out west a bit more, that will help I'm sure...
GL to all who are actually going cahsing. Bring back some good ones!
Heidi, did you end up buying that new camera yet?
Jake, the only truly safe place is underground. If you don't have a basement, a room away from exterior walls with no windows is your best bet. Cover yourself with heavy blankets and get under something sturdy.
Lol, I would actually believe that almost Heidi!
I've seen way to many times where the storms all look great, and then they cross the Tennessee river for the first time. then they're something like, "well they're still there, they might get stronger" or "they're still pretty strong, we might get something". But then when it goes over it a seccond time, there's nothing left, they're just dead untill they build back up over Middle TN.
I know this has nothing to do with what could happen today but i got a freakin thunderstorm last night. Ya you guys heard me i had a bloody thunderstorm last night.
I was going to bed around 11:30 last night and like 5 minutes in bed i heard this huge boom and i was like ya its a bloody thunderstorm AAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
Anyways good luck to anybody that chases today and please people stay safe.
Hello everyone out there. Be safe today wether you are chasing or in the warned Aerea.
We are getting Rain and thunderstorms all Morning nothing Severe here in the KC Area. Later Sleet and Snow.
Again be carefull all.
I need to interrupt the momentum for a moment here.
Everyone knows that meteorology is a graduate program. My thing is, I'm trying to find out what AA degree I would need to pursueIn order to be eligable.
Havin a bit of difficulty. Any assistance would be excellent
Yeah Strike, I got a new camcorder a few weeks ago. I have it fully charged & ready.
NOW I'm going to vote, for real this time! Too many messages to send in the interim!
The sun is poking through the clouds and it's 68 degrees!
Dan, meteorology is not a graduate program, but you do have to go four years to get your Bachelor's of Science.
If you are just trying to get an AA, I would focus on math or physics.
Arkansas just blew HIGH, Heidi, now I'm going to be worried about you all day all over again, be careful!
Leave it to the college advisors on base to mess it all up then. They were telling me I needed an AA before I could ever begin to do the actual meteorology courses.
Wait a minute, I just read over my comment and I need to correct myself.. Meteorology IS a graduate program, but you gotta get a BS in something first. I am not a college advisor, but I am a meteorologist.
It's Fat Tuesday/High Risk/Super Tuesday...OUT OF CONTROL.
WHat would be the best course to get a BS in?
Cause frankly, I need to get that before I can worry about the graduate program.
For example what did you choose?
And the Tracker is up!
But can anyone else see anything?
I got my BS in meteorology. But others can have a BS in math/physics/geography, and go to graduate school for meteorology. But the most common route is to get your BS in meteorology. With a quick internet search, you will find a lot of schools that offer a meteorology program.
I can see their location on the tracker.
All I see is a white screen for some reason...
I do not. I know there is at least 1 severe storm warning up not too far from them.
I know its cold north of there though. What kind of activity has there been so far?
HIGH needs to go over around 50-100 miles west of its current place IMO
If you guys are using FIREFOX it might not work if it's a java aided application. That's the only thing I can think of. If that's the case use IE (gulp) or rightclick Firefox and click RUN AS ADMINISTRATOR and then come back here (provided Java is downloaded already on your computer)
Heidi...I am in little rock awaiting hell to break loose but I am trying to find a very detailed road map of the great state of arkansas...any ideas on places(other than gas stations or krogers) that would have them?
I like how that Warm sector is staying sub-prime for storms, patchy clouds, but most of the convection is staying north atm. Allowing greater instability to be forming.
Ahh, now I can see them. MapQuest is your friend lol
30 percent hatched area of risk for tornadoes in the high risk sector!
Funny it'll run on firefox but not IE.
Ahh well. There they are0-waves at the dot-
Hey Chris...that live tracker thing is really cool!! It shows where you guys are at right now. Your current status is traveling, so good luck and be careful. I can't wait to hear about it!
Reed, Chris (the newest member of our team), and I are planning on heading just east of Little Rock and evaluate things. Could be a crazy day!!! Storm motions in the 60-70mph range are gonna make things very interesting.
We left Norman around 5:45 with a temp of 37 F, passed through the front in eastern OK (nice roll cloud) and temps rose to near 60 F, now we're east of that lead shortwave and it's a balmy 71 F. Weather is so rad!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN KY...SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 051547Z - 051715Z
THE HIGH RISK IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPANDED NEWD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
NERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL PERSIST OVER BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH WIND
SHEAR BECOMING EXTREME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SUPERCELLS AND BOW STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...TRACKING NEWD WITH TIME ALONG WARM FRONT. TORNADOES AND
PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE UPCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.
NOTE: THE ORIGINAL HIGH RISK AREA ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT...INCLUDING
MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN AR AS WELL AS NWRN MS.
..JEWELL.. 02/05/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
35218848 35038930 35059054 35809160 36339148 37249036
37878914 37778797 37088727 36258776
______________________________________________
Woo!!! I'm in it this time!!
New HIGH for the five-state confluence (KY TN IL MO AK) in addition to the old HIGH
JOEL!
Heh sounds like fun. With that kind of change in air masses It shouldbe an intresting day.
I hope you guys get some good footage and a memorable chase again!
Meanwhile The rest of the people geographically unable to be there shall moniter from our computers.
keep safe joel and have fun
North Central AR/South Central MO, 500 cape, no cap already.
According to mesoanalysis
And apparently I can't tell east from west.
I'd throw everything in on Memphis right now. GO TO MEMPHIS
Closet cleared out. Polling station taken care of (both voting & made sure they could get into their locked basement!)
Ez, I would check Wal-Mart and get the DeLorme Topo map. it is outstanding, has all the back roads. I know our Wal-Mart has them, and if our crappy Wal=-Mart has themn, you can bet on it being at others.
Sorry about the typos. I'm not taking as much time consentrationg on my writing today (FOR OBVIOUS REASONS!!!!!!)
lol, your a bit hyper today Heidi... ok I am too hahaha ;P
this just keeps looking better and better... it already looks threatening outside, and there isn't anything around for miles!
I'm using up the time between now and when the 1630 outlook comes out to look for battaries for our weather radio... my little brother likes to hoard them for his toys lol
AAAAAAAAAAAAA high risk now
Well I see them on the tracker and it appears they are a little NW of Little Rock, AR. Sometimes Jake if you wait a couple of minutes and hit refresh it will come in. Hope everyone stays safe chasing as we are going to get snow here again :( Looks like it's now a high risk area for parts of AR, MO, Etc. Hope someone gets some good footage today :)
They're headed toward Conway and are gonna use 64 as an east road (I'm speculating the obvious here). 64 isn't a 4-lane hwy, and is kinda sucky - lots of traffic usually, but maybe it won't be so bad because it's not "rush hour" or anything.
Our neighbors who are absentee farmers live in Conway!
Wow, we just had the strangest rain I've ever seen come through... it was just a quiet little rain shower.. But the rain was all tiny little raindrops (which we never get) and it fell in a very strange pattern. Sort of like when you have a stronger rain shower, with a little bit of wind, when you get those sheets of rain. It was like that, but it's not that windy outside... wierd
That place is an excellent choice Heidi
I'd be somewhere outside the reach of Memphis traffic to the north, probably that town Jonesboro, and wait until around 3 for the squall line in EOK to move far enough and start pushing out SCs in front of it. Let's see if my first ever prediction turns out to be right :)
Our station is planning on seting up at McCrory, AR. If anyone sees the KAIT-8 Wood Ford Storm Tracker out, wave! :D
Hey guys how is everyone?
So whats going on at the moment then?
New MD out for most of AR, Watch likely :)
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX REGION NEWD INTO SERN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051716Z - 051845Z
THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE UPCOMING
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT THIS AFTN OWING TO CONFLICTING
MODEL GUIDANCE.
LDB/PAT PROFILERS COUPLED WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP CLEARLY
SUGGEST THAT A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION. WIND IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER HAS VEERED TO WSWLY SINCE
ABOUT 14Z. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...VSBL SATL AND RADAR PORTRAY A
DEEPENING OF THE MID-LVL CONVECTION JUST E OF DALLAS AND OVER NERN
TX NEWD INTO SWRN AR. BUT...UNTIL 18Z SOUNDING DATA ARRIVES...IT IS
UNCERTAIN ON HOW THIS WAVE IS MODULATING THE THERMAL FIELDS.
INHIBITION CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
BUT...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS VIA LIFT AND WARMS FROM
BELOW...INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS AFTN. AT THAT
TIME...THE MID-LVL CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION...SIMILAR TO LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/NSSL.
VWP FROM LITTLE ROCK EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH
0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 260 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 55
KTS. IF/WHEN TSTMS BECOME SFC-BASED...MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES IN
THE MID-LVLS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR ASSOCD WITH DISCRETE
STORM STRUCTURES. FARTHER W...DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL BE MORE LIKELY
AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE LINEARLY ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
A quick question. When I look at the Wind/Tornado percentages for the day 1 outlook, there's the normal 45% (purple)/15% (dark blue) But there's also a light blue one with little lines in it, but I don't see a number, or percentage. What exactly is this one?
Guys, I just want to remind you that even through you are excited, Someone will most likley be killed by a Tornado today, and this is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION, so please, Dont say you want to be in the High Risk, Because I have been, April 13, 2007. I had a EF2-EF3 Tornado 4 miels north of me.
WOW. Going to be a crazy day that is for sure. Hope you guys stay stafe and alert. Had a good t-storm come through Ohio about 8am with 45mph winds and some intense lightning. Now it is just a steady rain, later tonight we might squeeze out a few more storms.
Jake, the little blue lines are called a "hatched area"
I'd try to explain it but I can't really do that right now; I'm too amped up. It's easy enough, though; just go back to the page where you saw the little blue lines and read the text under the map graphic. (It's the text right under the place where it has the NOAA graphic in the lower-left corner. You'll see. :)
The hatched area means that there is a 10% chance of a EF2-EF5 within 25miles of any point. Thats what the hatched area means for tornadoes.
I have my GR3 up and running any ideas were the best spot will be. I current have mine at Little Rock AR radar site.
Oh and Tim Jacobs i send you an email. If you see this
ahh, tyvm guys, that explains a lot. It also means I'm in both of them lol!
Looking at the latest mosaics and looks like there is a really good line forming in eastern texas with a bunch of stuff developing all through arkansas.
Have we had any tornado watches posted yet?
Cause If we dont see at least a watchbox flare up in the next few hours,. I dunno how likely It'll be that there are any tornadic systems flaring up.
Hey look... An iddy bitty baby thunderstorm north of memphis :D
Check that, looks as though there is a rather healthy watch bpox already up for eastern texas southern oklahoma and southwestern arkansas. Looks like that'll be the hotspot.
...And here reed and the others are in a differant area than the current watchbox.
Disregard my earlier comment
Hey everyone - first post but longtime lurker.
I live north of Conway and can tell you from experience the small town of Vilonia on Hwy 64 gets regular tornado damage.
Vilonia - El Paso - Beebe - it's flat and could be some good viewing!!
There should be pretty large tornado watch box across most of AR within the next hour or less. All the ingredients are coming together. Remember, we're not really expecting to see the major action here until around mid-afternoon.
I just looked at the water vapor image. =-O
I'm not sure why (call it my gut lol) but I'm going to keep an eye on that little one a ways north of Memphis. It doesn't have anything else too close to it, so it may be able to build up.
From SPC Meso Discussion at noon:
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
N TX/SRN OK...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BAND FROM NE TX INTO SE
OK. THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND THE W EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP...AND THIS ZONE OF ASCENT WILL
LIKELY SPREAD NEWD TOWARD SW/WRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...0-1 KM SRH NEAR 200
M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...AND MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
Well, at least I feel like I'm doing something now lol. I've been keeping some updates on my MySpace about the weather, so if anyone happens to see them, they'll know to be careful, and I've been talking to my friend all morning, and he knows it's coming now too.
New Tornado watch out!
I am not liking how this is slowing down to the point where the massive action could be after dark in east AR.
I just returned from setting up our shelter. It is of course at the neighbor's ranch, but they're actually in Little Rock for the next several days. It's one of those old-style shelters with an earthen roof. The roof leaks, and there was a lot of clay mud all over the floor. There are pallets (sp???) with old boards on top, with a good bit of mud even on the boards. I had to set up little plastic chairs down inside. It seats seven semi-comfortably, which seems like the max # of people we'd have to squeeze in there anyway. Oh, and there would be anywhere from 2-5 dogs, too!
Reed & Co. ! You're in Lonoke! That's a winter bird hotspot! Look for Smith's & Lapland Longspurs :D
Looking at the radars. looks as though the system northwest of Fayettsville Arkansas has a strong possibility of going meso. I'm comparing the actual radar imagry to the velocities and I'm beginning to notice some greens mixed in with the storm relative velocities red returns.
Any second opinions on this?
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
148 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 215 PM CST.
* AT 145 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR POWELL...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WHEATON BY 155 PM CST.
WHEATON...FAIRVIEW AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF EXETER BY 200 PM CST.
PURDY AND 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PIERCE CITY BY 210 PM CST.
MONETT BY 215 PM CST.
THE TOWNS OF ROCKY COMFORT...RIDGLEY...PIONEER...BUTTERFIELD...
PLEASANT RIDGE AND MCDOWELL ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3705 9396 3678 9359 3650 9415 3677 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 228DEG 39KT 3669 9414
Well, It went severe. O.o; I think I just called one.
yeah i see what you're talking about near Fayetteville Dan
It appears from the tracker they are right on top of one of the storms SW of Little Rock. Hope they get some good footage.....