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Severe weather likely Sunday-Tuesday

Posted At: February 28, 2008 @ 1:07 AM

Posted By: Reed Timmer

Related Categories: Tornadoes

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a risk for severe weather in their 4-8 Day Outlook for days 5 and 6, corresponding to Sunday/Monday, March 3/4. As mentioned, a strong trough is forecast to eject from the Rocky Mountain Region this weekend, and move across the central U.S. early next week. The 00z GFS run is more in line with the ECMWF with a slower progression of the trough. Despite a strong LLJ in the warm sector, it appears that a southward surging cold front will be a huge limiting factor for tornadoes on Sunday, unless the surface low is stronger than forecast. Monday looks to be a tornado outbreak over MS, AL, and GA, with 50+ knot LLJ and a very strong low-level cyclone. Instability will definitely not be a problem with this system, as the Gulf of Mexico is relatively untainted.

Comments (28) •

Entry Comments

Severe weather likely Sunday-Tuesday Comment

Posted By Ez | February 28, 2008 @ 5:58 AM #

u givin it a go reed if it holds together? im thinking about it but i hate the terrain east of here?

Posted By Jon | February 28, 2008 @ 10:50 AM #

The new 4-8 day outlook suggests stronger severe potential on the new days 5-6. Can you say first tornado outbreak of March?

.....and in a similar area to the March 1, 2007 outbreak too.

Posted By AJ | February 28, 2008 @ 3:34 PM #

Looks like a different kind of March Madness folks... haha. I"ll be keeping my eye on it.

Posted By Cors | February 28, 2008 @ 4:18 PM #

Tomorrow we will be having tornadoes in the UK Germany Belgium and the Netherlands along with extremely severe windgusts and possible flooding.

Posted By Stomp | February 28, 2008 @ 4:28 PM #

A more significant outbreak may occur March 11/12. Arkansas, Louisiana,Tennessee,Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. Forecasted strong negative tilting of this upper wave suggests a huge tornado outbreak.[Vortex Times]

Posted By Paul | February 28, 2008 @ 5:16 PM #

this is gonna give some rain for north, maybe some of it heavy??

Posted By Reed | February 28, 2008 @ 6:42 PM #

We'll definitely be chasing the Monday event in MS/AL, and likely the day before in Texas even though it doesn't look too favorable.

The trees are a little out of control east of Jackson..

Posted By caleb | February 28, 2008 @ 6:49 PM #

Reed all the way in MS or AL? geez all the way from canada to those plases your a hardcore storm chaser! I just looked at some models and there is 50+ knot LLJ looks like were gonna get some fairly big tornadoes!

Posted By JY | February 28, 2008 @ 6:52 PM #

This system looks insane!

Posted By Heidi | February 28, 2008 @ 10:26 PM #

If this holds together it looks like Monday could be the second high-risk day of the year, across the gulf coast ... Probably similar to the high risk area last March 1, when Enterprise got hit.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2007/day1otlk_20070301_1300.html

Not cool. :(

Posted By Jason Young | February 28, 2008 @ 10:58 PM #

I agree a high risk probly will come out . What ya'll think of southern OKlahoma and northern Texas for Sunday?

Posted By chaser2b | February 28, 2008 @ 11:09 PM #

How does it look for Tennessee getting anything out of this?

Posted By Heidi | February 28, 2008 @ 11:09 PM #

Check that ... might be Tuesday and not Monday, depending on the arrival. Right now the Tuesday 6Z-12Z run looks bad, though.

Posted By Smudge | February 28, 2008 @ 11:15 PM #

There's a butterfly flapping its wings over here in Melbourne, effects should reach you guys buy Monday night I'd guess. Have fun.

Posted By Heidi | February 28, 2008 @ 11:15 PM #

The SPC has updated their 4-8 day outlook to include middle TN; to me, this looks probably like a slight-risk on MON/TUE; not much going on in the way of CAPE, but the shear is there.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Posted By Smudge | February 28, 2008 @ 11:16 PM #

Jesus christ I can't even spell by correctly.

Posted By chaser2b | February 28, 2008 @ 11:23 PM #

Ok,looks like I'll be waiting and watching to see what happens with this one.

Posted By Dale | February 29, 2008 @ 8:10 PM #

hey gang, im watching a program on discovery right now . some guy has built a storm chasing vehicle to drive right into the vortex with an i-max camera lol. anyone know what happened to this guy ?

Posted By jim ferguson | February 29, 2008 @ 8:58 PM #

Reed,

What do you think the conditions will be in metro Atlanta on Monday? North and west Ga?

Posted By Cors | February 29, 2008 @ 9:03 PM #

Livestream Hurricane Emma:
http://insaneweather.com/videostream/viewer.html

10$ an hour or 0,02euro cents...lol

Posted By Cors | February 29, 2008 @ 10:40 PM #

I risked my life to bring you this vid:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e39_1204341327

Posted By Paul | February 29, 2008 @ 11:41 PM #

Reed and all storm chasers/spotters

i am interested in how storm chaser/spotter's salery is?????????

Posted By Heidi | February 29, 2008 @ 11:52 PM #

Hey everyone - I'm in NO WAY trying to discourage commentary, but a lot of the questions that are being posed on the blog would be much better suited for the forum. We have a general discussion area now, too, so for those of you who haven't joined yet, come on over! :) Just scroll up to the top and you'll find the "forum" button. Membership is free, of course.

Posted By Dale | March 1, 2008 @ 12:19 AM #

WAIT!!!! ....... thers a salary????? lmao!

Posted By Cors | March 1, 2008 @ 12:41 AM #

Heidi@@@@@ im still shackkkkkking......

Posted By Wes | March 1, 2008 @ 1:13 AM #

My salary is a negative value. Chasing is an addiction that takes your money just like gambling. You probably have better odds making money gambling at the casino than you do chasing though. I wont say nobody makes any money, but its definitely a select few.

Posted By ez | March 1, 2008 @ 1:50 AM #

looks like the new spc outlook is saying more of a linear event...

Posted By Skyler | March 1, 2008 @ 1:33 PM #

I live in southern Louisiana, so a squall line would be good for me as it would limit tornado potential right?