News DetailWinter Storm today/tonight from Iowa through the Great Lakes Region, severe weather possible south!
Posted At: February 25, 2008 @ 10:15 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
As a shortwave trough ejects from the Rocky Mountains and across the Great Plains today, a surface low will slowly deepen over the Southeast Plains, bringing winter storm conditions from Iowa eastward across the Great Lakes Region, and severe weather for the Arklatex overnight. The RUC forecast 500 mb and surface patterns for 00z this evening are displayed below:
6-8 inch snowfall accumulations are likely across the winter storm warning area across central/eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL, with slightly higher amounts possible from Lower Michigan eastward to New England as the system moves northeastward and the deformation zone becomes better developed. A battery of winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories are in effect for the cold side of this system, as shown in the SPC watch/warning map below:
Later tonight, as moist tropical air surges northward to the Arklatex region by 03z, severe weather will be possible with the approach of an upper-level jet streak ejecting from the base of the trough. The WRF and RUC models do not show the cap eroding until after 00z, so this will definitely be an overnight event. While CAPE values are forecast to be marginal, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells. The LLJ looks a little veered for tornadoes, especially across the western part of the Slight Risk Area (see below), but tornadoes could be possible if storms can move into the more favorably low-level sheared environment further east. Stay tuned for updates as this severe weather event unfolds overnight.
6-8 inch snowfall accumulations are likely across the winter storm warning area across central/eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL, with slightly higher amounts possible from Lower Michigan eastward to New England as the system moves northeastward and the deformation zone becomes better developed. A battery of winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories are in effect for the cold side of this system, as shown in the SPC watch/warning map below:
Later tonight, as moist tropical air surges northward to the Arklatex region by 03z, severe weather will be possible with the approach of an upper-level jet streak ejecting from the base of the trough. The WRF and RUC models do not show the cap eroding until after 00z, so this will definitely be an overnight event. While CAPE values are forecast to be marginal, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells. The LLJ looks a little veered for tornadoes, especially across the western part of the Slight Risk Area (see below), but tornadoes could be possible if storms can move into the more favorably low-level sheared environment further east. Stay tuned for updates as this severe weather event unfolds overnight.
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i wonder if i'll get a snow day tomorow in school
this is perfect to try some of new Lightning photography tips! :)
have fun doing that jake and be carefull seing as how the majority of the t-storms will be there mainly after midnight
Yeah, unfortunatly, that's how it always is out here. either it comes through just after sundown through the night, or it dies before it gets here.
MY LIVE FEED IS UP - LOOKING WEST - There will most likley be smoke later, and this is a perfect viewpoint to see wildfire activity, as anything to by west blows reight at this camera, and I am surronded by some large fields just a few miles to my west
LIVE FEED: WWW.SATURDAYAFTERMATH.COM
well don't get to dissapointed jake- cause looking at next monday looks prommising for severe storms ahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Yep I was thinking the same thing... Looks like spring is finally here!
It may be a long shot from this far out, but I'm becoming interested in the potential for the first early-season Plains chase day this Sunday if the planets can align just right. The past couple runs of the ECMWF show a nice, potent trough moving through the Rockies this weekend, with strong lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains by Sunday morning. (Today's 12z run shows a 997 mb low near Denver on Sunday morning, while last night's showed 991 mb over Boise City by Sunday evening!). The GFS, on the other hand, looks much less appealing, as its handling of the two jet streams allows for a weaker low that quickly races off to the northeast on Sunday. I really wish we had access to all the parameters on the European, particularly to see what it's depicting for moisture return with its more favorable synoptic setup.
Like I said, probably a long shot, but even a modest threat for severe wx over the real chase alley excites me more at this point than another marathon drive to Memphis or Houston to watch HP messes racing through the forests!
I agree with Donny... next Monday's looking pretty darn good for storms. Wait, next Monday's also my birthday.... AAAAAAAAAAAH! lol.
lol, sweet AJ, I didn't know that! Happy early birthday hehe.
well as long as next monday gives me something, I'm happy, dosn't look like I'll even get any thunderstorms outta this one.
i guess tonight was kinda of a bust jake- i am still kind of mad at myself went for a walk earlier tonight- didn't grab my camera and halfway threw my walk- there was some pink coloring in the clouds almost looked greenish in some areas also- went to grab my camera and the pink coloring was gone
Why do you always have to be right? I damned near got killed tonight by some jackass in the snow lol
My poor PT Cruiser came away in it with just a soiled oil pan (thats a mechanical joke there) mind you the wife is gunna need to wash my unders now :S
Good call on the snow , bad call on the snow ;)
Yeah, it pretty much was Donny. Although, this morning I was woken up at about 6:30-6:45, and I think the wind was blowing at about 35-50MPH consistently, and 50-65MPH gusts. it was kinda scary hehe
Thought ya'll would like this, it is from a Lawton Okla. news
Lawton_Twisters are fast and furious and most of us will never have a chance to see one up close except on television and the silver screen. But soon we may be able to see one up close and personal like never before.
Around 40 welding students at the Great Plains Technology Center will get a chance to help create a new Tornado Interceptor Vehicle. They already have TIV 1 and hope to have TIV 2 finished by the start of tornado storm season in about four months. IMAX and the Discovery Channel crews were at the center getting a behind the scenes look at the project for their television show "Storm Chasers".
The film "Twister" featured storm chasers in a breathtaking way that brought twisters to the big screen in a way that had never before been seen. But, most of the tornadoes in the film were computer generated and IMAX Producer Sean Casey wants to create a film that uses real scenarios - and they need a new vehicle to do it.
"Because if people are going to see our film I don't want to give them a nose bleed seat witnessing a tornado," he says. "I want to give them a 50 yard line view and give them the joy of one of the most awesome spectacles on this planet." Casey says he created TIV 1 in 2002 but it's a tough ride. In order to get as close as they really want, they'll have to make it safer.
"This is the heart of the vehicle, and this is the cradle and we have this port...looking at a 16 thousand pound movable tripod," says Casey. He says after searching the world for a vehicle that was up to the task he found Southwest Alliance USA 6 By 6 Company right here in Lawton.
That's how this opportunity fell into the hands of welders at the Great Plains Tech Center. Allen Dellamy is the welding instructor advising students in this project. He says it's a great opportunity for his students and he can't wait to see it completed. "It's an on going process we will work on some of it ... then we will send it," he says.
Students won't just have a movie producer in shop, The Discovery Channel is there too, documenting the process. And after seeing all the action of live tornadoes and computer generated twisters, you may think it would be great to do a little storm chasing yourself. Our meteorologists would tell you that's certainly not a good idea and the Discovery Channel producer agrees.
These guys have been doing it for years," says Wheeler. "Getting in your car, going out in your Ford Taurus - bad idea. Stay a safe distance back. I know it's beautiful but stay at home and let us show you on TV or Film, I think that's the best way."
TIV 2 will be in the next IMAX movie theater along with behind the scenes shots on "Storm Chasers" on Discovery.
tonight on kwtv news9 , they are going to show tiv 2 . www.news9.com . it will air at 10 central time
Speeking of twister don't you think that last tornado looks like the grate bend tornado? and what was that rope thing when they were inside the tornado? Geez i've seen that tornado so many times I know the lines!
I sent Reed a few pictures. Officials in my county are urging no travel. As the rural roads have blown over substanstially.
http://www.week.com/news/local/15999432.html
hmm, I understand what they're saying about not just going out and chasing.. But nothing compares to actually being there, you can't get the same effect from a TV, or movie. I still can't wait to see it though!
They have to say it, the new TIV is cool looking even though it had no skin yet. Looks like something from Mad Max's. 10 wheel's very cool . I look forward to seeing it on the road this spring !