News DetailSevere weather outbreak likely early next week!
Posted At: February 2, 2008 @ 4:28 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
A massive trough will plow across the U.S. through the middle of next week, with springtime moisture advecting northward by Monday intro the southeastern Plains ahead of a strong dryline. Given intense deep-layer and low-level wind shear ahead of this trough, supercells will be possible on Monday across eastern OK, southeastern KS, AR, and southern MO, and into the Central Gulf Coast states by Tuesday. GFS forecast loops from Sunday through Wednesday morning for 500 mb and dewpoint are shown below:
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk in their Day 2 Outlook from extreme Northeast Texas to the Bootheel of MO for severe weather east of the textbook dryline on Monday, with a risk for severe weather included for Tuesday in their extended outlook. If these model runs verify, Monday through Tuesday will likely be our first chase of the year! Hopefully we'll make up for missing the Southwest MO hoses.
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WOOHOO! Wonder who will be out at that time... hmm...
I doubt that Kansas will see anything significant from this event, but it won't hurt to keep an eye on things from home...
Perfect timing on the new entry; I just finished going over the GFS & WRF from top to bottom. Looks like a wild 18-24 hrs could be in store for our viewing area. CAPE in excess of 1000 over most of the slight-risk area!
What sucks majorly is that our laptop only has like 7 GB left on the hard drive and my video editing software won't work properly, presumably because of that (We have a new laptop on the way with 160 GB & the works for editing - being "built" by HP on 2/5!!!!). I might try re-installing it to see if that will help. I can't get it to call up. :-/
I think I am going to need a nowcaster! AAAAA!!!
Oh, and again, since it just snowed, our unpaved roads will be beyond horrible, so be careful out there!
I want to clarify, so everyone knows why I made the comment about the snow ... Obviously, with temps (probably) in the 70s, the snow will have melted. But, that means that there will be about 4" of sticky, squishy clay-based muck all over the road, between the potholes and over-flowing low-water bridges. That's one of the many charms of chasing in Arkansas. :D
Also, Reed (or anybody else for that matter) - I don't know if you've ever chased in NE AR (other than the "whirlwind" tour on 9/22/06), but I think you'd be not too upset by the terrain east of the Black River. Basically, find Pocahontas (Randolph Co.) in northeast AR, and draw a line running north/south at that town. East of that line is flat farmland with very favorable views - it's not the OK/TX panhandle but is FAR REMOVED from the hill country/jungle. Roads are better comparatively, too.
happy chasing reed
WOW AJ your lucky! sorry guys I'v not been on here...
Yeah I will be posting a blog about this too soon.... This definently has potential! :D
My site "hardcore weather" will be on top of this as well. I can't wait to see what Reed gets! next year, I'll be driving and will be able to get video of storms!
Bears Watching...To chase this time of year will be very difficult.
Yeah TWC said severe weather seasons ending with 8 has been very very very bad!
Is'nt today the 1 year anivershrey of the FL, tornadoes over night?
man look at that nice feed of moisture flowing into the Southern Plains-and the strong jet energy plowing into Oregon/California This Evening, gotta love the water vapor satellite imagery!!!!!! should be some very interesting weather for the Plains in the coming days
yup time- me and heidi and caleb and a few others here are going to be right in the thick of it-i'll try to make a good video
good luck to ya Donny, Heidi, Reed, and anyone else that's gonna be chasing down in that area. Looks like we could get some much needed snow up this way Monday Afternoon/Tuesday Morning, we haven't had a decent snowfall up here in Duluth since late December. This one could drop 4-6" up here! I'm hoping the models don't change at all, but i know that's asking to much!!
oh crap sorry tim i just realized i said time lol sorry and thanks- last time i interecepted just got 20-30 mph winds and brief heavy rain- no thunder or lightning
Nice set up but wish it would fire more west , I all was have trouble chaseing out that way. , But hell I'm just ready for March and May.
Jason
I hope I'm in some of this, from what I'm seeing, I'm almost right in the heart of the day 4 area. What exactly should I expect out here?
I will be chasing on day 4 too... if you count standing in your backyard with a digital camera watching what staroms happen to move my way go over chasing lol
i would say mainly it would be in the form of a squall line jake but depending on how unstable it gets there before the line- it is entirely possible supercells could form ahead of the line with a tornado potential
Jake, you're in west Tennessee, right? Afternoon on Tuesday could be pretty intense there!
Don't forget DALLAS FORT WORTH GUYS!!
This is TERRIBLE on Monday Night! They will get a monster tornado!
Excelent! now I really can't wait lol
And Heidi, kinda, right on the border of west and middle TN.
Hey folks!! Looking good for next week!! Good luck those who chase or get chased Monday!! Lets pray this one pans out for us here Tim!! We need at least 6"!!
Donny calling me time, hahaha! too funny, another friend has done that in the past, but she does it on purpose, no biggy..lol. Yes Brady, i hope this one pans out for us as well. It looks like a fairly quick mover though, but we may be able to reach the 6" mark!! lets hope! so far the models haven't backed off, but there's still time for them to do so..lol.. Don't hold me to this, but i have a hunch that we may hear some thunder with this event with the heavier snowfall Monday Evening!!!!
Thundersnow has been a big topic here in the past!! I've experienced it a few times!! Intense stuff!! I haven't seen it in quite some time!! We should get a good amount here one way or another!! I gotta start moving some stuff tomorrow(later today). every time I move stuff weather gets crazy!!
Well Reed I guess I'll be seeing you out there on Monday. ;) Good luck and stay safe.
See you guys out there Michael!
Damn it's great to see the low-level jet this morning.
Wow, that's a huge 30% area, now it's really looking good for Tuesday!
I really hope I can get a pic of a Supercell, that's one thing that I've never been able to see.
Yeah Reed it sure is. I just got awesome video of some CG in my backyard and some intense small hail. I'm getting the video on the computer now I hope this is a sign of things to come!
ohh jake there breathtaking good luck - the lightning that comes out of them and then thunder- its to die for
Considering the Svr. Threat, and the great view I get from here, I went out yesterday and shoved out a few hundred bucks, bought a camera (has night vision) and am streaming it live online.
Here is the link.
http://player.stickam.com/flash/stickam/stickam_player.swf?skinName=large0&app=stickam_chat_large.swf&userIP=127.0.0.1&webID=372AE1A569B424DDBD4195B3100BD2E5&skinType=large&sessionType=115&userSiteID=1015547&photo=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stickam.com%2Fimages%2Fen%2Fdefault%2Fprofile%2Fna_640x480.jpg&bgcolor=FFFFFF&userType=204&autoplay=1&userID=174448676&playerID=3871783&hostName=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stickam.com&userName=milton1991&langID=en&defaultMedia=slideShow&
Camera location is in Southern Dallas County, looking west, north west.
WOW David, it has sound and everything! :D That will be very useful during any severe event.
WOW david!!! NICE!!!!
anyway on wensday it looks like I have a risk for severe weather! I'm prodicting hail will be the highest risk! I'm smack in the middle of that 30% chance!!!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3prob_1100.gif
nice David!
Difficult decision tomorrow on weather to play the lead convection or the dryline. the low-level jet looks a little too southwesterly along the dryline..
Well i think the snowpack is having a impact on keeping temperatures down here...the forecast in the last 2 hrs has changed like this:
Forecast as of 11:00a.m. cdt:
This afternoon High of 41, partly cloudy, and light winds.
Tonight: 60 percent chance of freezing rain.
Now, Forecast as of 1:00p.m. cdt:
This afternoon High of 35, 60 percent chance of snow, up to one inch accumulation, and light winds.
Tonight: 70 percent chance of freezing rain, little or no ice accumulations.
To me thats a big change. anyone agree?
Reed rembere the Dry line is the boundry of the warmer air and cooler air so tornadoes are possable. but good luck what time are you planing on chaseing tomarrow? hope I won't be still at school hopefuly i'll have free choice on at the computer lab. Reed also hail is also a thret. today i'm in a SEE TEXT area so hopefully something interesting pops up and the temps are sapose to be 50-62 so the thunderstorms may and I say may as a strong word become severe with small microbirst/downbirsts with 40-50 MPH winds.
Kansas City had thunder, lightening and grapple this morning for around 1 1/2 hours. Pretty cool to look outside and expect to see rain, but instead see the little ice pellets falling!!! We are to have zero visibility fog move in late this evening. Should make it interesting trying to get home from the Super Bowl parties...
I think I am going to target the Durant area and meet the dry line . I hope .
Jason.
Caleb, the dry line, separates the dry air, from the moist air. I'm ready for tomorrow, although OK won't be seeing any action, i'll be watching it from gr3 at home...lol.
We have another chance for snow here on Tuesday. But I'm not getting my hopes up....especially since the last time, it turned out to be nothing!
Good Call Tim!! (from D town) Hope this pans out!! Severe weather for our fine friends down south and this for us!!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008
...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.LOW PRESSURE FROM COLORADO WILL QUICKLY CROSS KANSAS MONDAY
MORNING AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING...REACHING NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 7 INCHES FROM DULUTH SOUTH...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS NORTH OF DULUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW COULD
MIX WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN CASS-
CROW WING-SOUTHERN AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-
BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
321 PM CST SUN FEB 3 2008
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
MONDAY NIGHT...
Yeah zack thats what I ment i was thinking of something else
thats ok Caleb...We all get mixed up some times.
Calling for a high of 70 here in Ohio on Tuesday maybe enough moisture will be pulled up so we can get some storms too. Cloudy and 42 here now.
GO G-MEN
yeah this is a little off subject but any one watching the superbowl pre-game show? NEW YORK IS UN BEATABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! those of you that are bengals fans enjoy seeing them!!!
Hey guys, how is everyone?
orry off topic i know, but ive just ben watching the pre-match program befor the super bowl, and now i really want to watch it but its on too late here....
It's 5:39 pm here what time is it at your house tim?
hey Caleb, it is 10 to 11 at night here....
im going to upload the vids i got from friday tomorrow when i get home from school....
BTW, If anyone wants to see the Texas Sunset, Live Camera is now up for it, and you can see the night vision mode activate: http://player.stickam.com/flash/stickam/stickam_player.swf?skinName=large0&app=stickam_chat_large.swf&userIP=127.0.0.1&webID=372AE1A569B424DDBD4195B3100BD2E5&skinType=large&sessionType=115&userSiteID=1015547&photo=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stickam.com%2Fimages%2Fen%2Fdefault%2Fprofile%2Fna_640x480.jpg&bgcolor=FFFFFF&userType=204&autoplay=1&userID=174448676&playerID=3871783&hostName=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.stickam.com&userName=milton1991&langID=en&defaultMedia=slideShow&
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Well, Its looking more and more like we could have discrete tornadic activity on both Monday and Tuesday, I would love to hear Reed's thoughts on it.
(HINT HINT REED - UPDATE US :D)
Hey Timmy!! Can't wait to see it!! I seen you had some pretty intense weather the other day!
I like the live feed David!! Can't wait to see some supercells on it!! I'll have to get something like that going one of these days!! I have a crappy lil webcam I can stick on the dash of the Dodge, but it really sux compared to yours!!
Ok sorry for being on topic but GO PATRIOTS GO. sorry had to get that out there.
Anyways back on topic good luck to anybody that chases in the next couple a days.
Picture Reed & Co. right now:
1) Waiting for the new model runs to come out, 2) debating which option(s) to choose for Monday/Tuesday while 3) Trying to watch the Super Bowl.
Not a typical position to be in as a chaser, given, of course, the time of the year of the Super Bowl.
:D
Oh and Caleb, you're in the slight risk TUESDAY, not Wednesday (although if this system slows down you could be in it on Wednesday...)
i know im waing for them new model runs to heidi lol and i am also watching the superbowl to lol even though neither of my favs. are playing
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAA GEEZ they've been at the same score for about 45 min!!!
sorry heidi.... it looks interesting
That was nice!! Go Giants!! And that's the game!! maybe one of these years our Vikes will be back to lose another Super Bowl!!
BOOYAH!!!!!
that was the best game I've ever seen! lol
Yes Go Giants!!!
Finally got to see the models after that sweet Super Bowl game and my dad and I as of now are liking E Missouri near the warm front. Looks pretty ripe for tornadoes in that area helicity is awesome and better SSE winds!
Nice result for the game. So much for those who bagged the hell out of NY with their 98 point total losses at the start of the year. Eat pie!
Mike
Darwin, Australia.
nice for tommarow hope get some weather in north east for this instead of just rain and
WOOOOOOOOT GIANTS WIN
ps im all hyper had 2 red bulls and got back from packed super bowl party and all giants fans
BOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I wanted to see the Seau get a ring.
On a side note we had Thundersnow today, as convective elements came together...the lightning was so bright. Infact several thousand people in Morton IL lost power...as the superbowl began, while snow totaled 1 inch in morton other areas to our norrth reported more such as Princeton with 7 inches.
On a side note my grandparents were driving through Nothern IL near Princeton, and had to stop and get a Hotel it was so bad...plus the headlights on the van went out. They think they got hit by lightning...but i doubt it.
Heres the link to the news story on it:
http://www.week.com/news/local/15267376.html
Reed, Kevin Martin says to chase it. He says think MARCH 1, 1997 as he says this pattern is IDENTICAL to. He told me to tell you that it was the Arkansas tornado outbreak.
Slim
Hey Reed, let me know if you'll be chasing out here in TN, I'd love to meet you! (as I'm sure my parents would too lol)
Here is a good link regarding Josh Wurman for those who don't know: (center for severe weather research)
http://www.cswr.org/
Yea MODERATE RISK ALREADY for tues...the 45% hatched probability is huge! If it pans out i am leaving really late tomorrow night from norman and prolly posting up somewhere between little rock or memphis!
Yes!! I might actually get to see a Supercell!
you're right Ez, 45% is huge, I can't wait to see what the tornado percetage is!
You can probably bet on atleast a 15% hatched Tor threat from SPC, and if they think the shear is just that incredible they may even go 30%. I wont chase Tuesday, but I am going to venture out after dark tonight to try and nail some lightning photos. Could be a rough night from Dallas/ SE OK/ SW AR.
Wow, if it really does get that hgh, I will be a happy camper lol.
though it will be one of those that you hate to see, I guess this one reminds me of last year, or the year before where they had an F3 go through a densly populated area, and decimate it.
I dunno about you guys, but according to the SPC, tuesday is looking much better then today.
Northern Wis is to get 3-6 inches, probably like those in Minnesota, but the central and southern parts of Wis are forecasted to get a bit of snow which will change to rain and freezing rain. Even a storm or two going over was mentioned. I can believe it after seeing the current radar for northern Ill. as there are storms embedded in the mess down there that have been dropping large hail already this morning. And all that is heading north towards Green Bay.
Sorry, not really joining in on the football news, Nascar starts in about a week and a half. :D
AAAAAAAAA i'm in a mot risk tomarrow!!!!!!
Me too Caleb, now I just have to wait for it... that's always the hard part hehe
off topic, woah, I just got my first double of the cope at the bottom of the page...
Code* sorry ;P
here looks like going to be boring rain wish i was out there to go chasing but can't so hope you guys do really well and bring back pick and video's
omg i can't wait for the daytona 500 i like jeff gordon but reason i watch that race is becuz of the big one beccuz of the restricter plate racing
wow i just woke a little while bckk- partly cloudy skies- as of little while ago- we already have temps int he low 70s- dewpoint mid 60s unstable already- we could actually possibly hit 80 today if the sun keeps on shineing ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
and one thing that i wanted to point out- you all probably know this- but with all this warmth and humidity going on today and throw a polor jet on it- and nothing happens
Looks like I'll be sitting out yet another one. getting some good rain here in maryland though.
-sigh-
Looks like All I have to look foreward to is the storm spotter course on saturday then a massive scientology protest on sunday.
It will be 70 degrees here in about 5 minutes. The wind is keeping the humidity in the 80% range (it would be higher with out it). The sun feels very warm - record high temps on the way, I'd say.
Oh, I wanted to say, also, that I think the SPC could move their moderate-risk area a little farther west, perhaps to Little Rock. I'm not saying that just because I'm in AR, either, I just think that the parameters are being met & it is warranted.
heidi do you also have partly cloudy skies over there to?
i have to agree with that also- because we are already at where our forecasted high was supposed to be- and we have surpassed that
I'm looking at the charts and it looks as though the slight risk has vbbeen extended from mid texas all the way up into the extreme southern tip of illinois. This encomapses southern missouri arkansas oklahome a small region of tennesee as well. I'll keep an eye on things here. God knows I've been needing some weather event to break out.
No joke I've actually been helping people with some big protest so this is a relief. Yeesh It couldnt have happened at a better time.
We have major cumulus action streaming overhead, Donny.
71 degrees. And rising. I wouldn't be surprised to see 80 degrees, at this rate. I mean, it's not even 10:30.
I wonder if Reed & Joel are heading to SW AR?
i guess you may have to call me later if you decide to go out today eh- im ready for it -
I personally love tornadoes! You guys that created this site for people that love tornadoes, you ROCK!! Thanx!
Hawaii getting soaked: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22999430