News DetailTornado Outbreak possible in South Texas!
Posted At: February 16, 2008 @ 12:46 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a strong vorticity maximum ejects from the Mexican Plateau on Saturday and encounters the deep tropical moisture in place over South Texas, supercells will be likely with the potential for strong tornadoes. 0-1 km helicity values of 300+ m2/s2 will be in place east of the cold front/dryline in an unstable and uncapped warm sector, so if storms can remain discrete, a tornado outbreak will be likely. We're departing in about an hour for a target in South Texas. Stay tuned for updates as this potentially dangerous situation unfolds.
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Hoooooold the lineeeee Reed! and slow the (g) down...;P
ps: Ahahahahaa........thunder!
Reed Maybe I will see you out there.... This is my playground.. I will be chasing this event as well.. This is going to be big..
be careful good luck my friend..
Have an itchy trigger finger to move south/southeast of Giddings given that the lawn trash now over San Antonio/Austin and just eastward could be sucking the life right out of the western portion of the MDT.
I'm going to go with El Campo, although it's somewhat woody in places north and ne of there; perhaps if visibility isn't poor a roll of the dice on Palacios could be warranted due to the relatively nice roads from the gulf up to El Campo and over to Lake Jackson, but given one's inability to drive over the ocean the room for error is going to be quite thin.
El Campo looking south is my final answer. I'll move with the new forecasts but will only allow myself where I know I would plausibly end up (I've spent over a week in that area before, I'm even more sad now that the ice is holding us back again!)
Who ever said ; over...why not go under!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwStjAS9xTY
Oh geez Cors. When I strike it rich I will become the first official waterspout chaser!
I will be chasing this event, I'm a little concerned with that big batch of rain, I think it will destroy alot of the risk area. I will be targeting the moderate risk area, But if this rain trash don't move out, today won't be that bad, but I have hopes for today, and pray to god we get some good ones.
This is Chris riding along with Reed,headed southbound to the extreme southern Texas. We just checked out the RUC and if this model verifies, we may have a major tornado outbreak on our hands. But, it's just as likely that the cold front will clean everything out down here. We will be sure to have the tracker up and running when the chase begins.
This batch of rain is really getting on my nerves, I'm in waskom texas right now headed toward Tyler. The rain is light, but no fun, I think this is really going to make this storm not reachh its full potential.
We are on our way!! head to south Texas... I alread live in Dallas this is a straight shot for me.
Wish us luck
Wow...looking at the mesoanalysis, this seems to be becoming prime. 0-1km and 0-3km sr helicity vallues are already over 500 over central TX. Effective shear is 45 in close to the same areas...and is that CU trying to build already? Im lookin at the Visible Sattelite imagery.
1000 cape values along the coat with 500 cape values extending as far north as Houston...maybe a but further....Cape soundings seem to show it is in conjunction/shaping of the coastline. Can anyone say Sea Breeze?
Any word on where Reed and Co. are setting up? The live tracker is not on yet. What time does everybody think the action will begin?
Wow...i make a post about things becoming prime, and refresh the spc and BAM Areas of shear i was talking about in the above post and the cu field area, now under a mesoscale discussion.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0240.html
Um, bad news, the chance of good tornadoes went from 15 % to 10%, This batch of rain is still falling on us here in tyler texas, we started in Shreveport this morning. I'm not heading south anymore, I'm headed to some interesting cells developing now in west of Dallas, But I will head to San Antonio from there.
We're still confident on surface-based storms in S Texas...we'll have the tracker up and running once the storms fire. We may have to dive into Mexico if this cold front starts surging south.
I am now driving through a thunderstorm cell, It is looking rather strong, I have a good lightning show where I am, It is raining pretty bad as well, I don't think it is severe yet, but it has potential, I am about 30 miles south of Dallas right now.
Everything may be elevated up there zack...but the instability is on its way.
Good luck ChaserBurns!!!!
Hopefully you'll hit the mid-70 temps soon. it feels incredible down here.
Dr. Greg Forbes has been scratched from the list of Speakers at the national chaser convention in Denver, due to the possibility of this outbreak, he is needed to stay in Atlanta, to monitor the developng situation.
On other hand, Anyone heard about TIV 2? Its supposed to be 10 wheel drive, with 3 differential locks, made in mind of going over road/gravel roads. Be interesting to see how this turns out...but i have a feeling he may have started with a tank? This is all information coming from the National Chaser Convention. Severestudios, has been posting video links and content, along with interviews from the convention. It is very interesting. Kinda neat to put a face to the name Tony Laubach, i see him all over on gr3 using my place file.
I meant "Off road/gravel roads" "Not over"
I'm currently in Victoria, TX watching things closely. Visible satellite is showing at least some signs of partial clearing between San Antonio and Corpus but theres a thick deck of low clouds here. Hopefully we aren't waiting until 4-5pm for initiation but that could happen.
Good luck Chaserburns! Unfortunately, I'm guessing that we won't see initiation until later this afternoon. It doesn't hurt at all to get there early though. ;)
we are headed to Huntsville it's east of College Station, going to watch the radar and satalite and hope this cap breaks..
we are headed to Huntsville it's east of College Station, going to watch the radar and satalite and hope this cap breaks..
Well we are in huntsville now waiting for initiation. We are about to go under a tornado watch.. things are looking good and the cap should break, as forcing from the dry line and trough dig Eastward
We are now in eastern texas again. The cap is expected to break within the next 1-3 hours, and a tornado watch appears likely for eastern texas and western louisiana. When this cap breaks these storms are all expected to become mesocyclones! I wish all you guys luck as we are fixing to get ignitiation!
Tornado watches up for a lot of texas now.
Good luck to Reed and everbody who chases today. The Tornado Watch is up with a 50% chance of strong to violent tornadoes.
How the hell are you both? CMC you know who this is?
Be careful....never forget the above name. Love you both
JAC
I am going to watch all this unfold from my computer at home. I hope that, if there are any tornadoes, that people stay safe.
-Vincent
I'm watching the OK ST. vs Texas A&M game on TV right now & they started the coverage of the game by saying "Welcome to College Station - we could have tornados out today!"
It's good to know they're thinking about it! :-/
Hey Reed, I believe we just passed you guys in the Best Western Inn parking lot. We just now got to I-10 and are debating on whether to go further south. Good luck!
Hi Mrs C! We're about to mobilize...
Major storms developing to our southwest...and north! AAAAAAAAAAAA!
Everyone stay safe out there
The live tracker isnt working. I am looking at a very strong thunderstorm to my west and north west. It is a great looking cell, I hope It drops a tornado. But is the tracker supposed to be working?
Yeah the cap is eroding if u stayed in east central tx i'd say you have a good chance but you have to worry about losing daylight
there's one starting to pop maybe ne of woodlands?
I am still watching the same supercell from the same location, it is looking great. There is no rotation, but it looks like it could easily form a tornado.
We went north form I-10 well ahead of the storms northeast of San Antonio and we crossed a very strong, southerly surging cold front. The cells to our south may get undercut soon...not looking good for tornadoes unless those cells south of I-10 can get going fast. Good situation for the residents of East Texas so far
These storms are dangerous! I am driving through a storm right now producing heavy downpours, and hail of at least golfball sized hail. The winds are calm in this particular cell though, We are hoping to intercept a supercell forming in eastern Texas, looking best for producing a tornado so far today. We are in the middle of the line, andshould intercept the forming supercell in about thirty minutes. Wish me luck!
I am parked viewing a nice supercell right now. It has alot of lightning, and alot of rain, but still, no rotation. Tornadoes look more likely tonight, and that will be around shreveport, and north and south, I will be chasing until 12:00 am tonight.
Yah I was wondering If Reed and Joel was gonna chase to day GOOD lUCK GUYS!
I am watching a tornado on the ground!!! It appears to be rather strong! This is the same storm I was following earlier. What a nice tornado! One long day of chasing paid off! Its really aweosme, I have seen severeal tornadoes in my life, but this one is weak, but very cool. Awesome!
Hey glad someone had some success, will you be putting pics up somewhere?
Zack, could you nail down your location a little better for us so we know which storm you're looking at?
Ben says he sees two conflicting reports..."I am watching a tornado on the ground!!! It appears to be rather strong!"
And then: "One long day of chasing paid off! Its really aweosme, I have seen severeal tornadoes in my life, but this one is weak, but very cool. Awesome!"
Infact i beg to differ, that if this is the 15 yr old Zack everyone knows he may be sitting in Moore Ok. If not then im sorry for bringing this up. I'd love to see some video. escpecially it turns out to be the only tornado of the day.
*Not trying to start drama, i just hate liars*
Zack what news station are you watching?
Im going to have to agree with Ben here.
Ok...thats cool? Who are you chasing with? I just checked radar loops, and it seems very unprobable you seen a tornado there, much less a stronger tornado.
Im just having trouble believing that 15 yr old Zack is Chasing...and doubting your parents would take you either.
and I said it was weak
i wonder if some strong thunderstorm patterns will change in this storm, cause this is kinda unpreictable for 100% so i wonder...
We have a Zack that is 15 here, from Moore City, i believe we may have been getting you too mixed up...not trying to cause trouble...just trying to verify your report...
Still dont see anything tornado like in the last 40 minutes.
This may be a bust no tornadoes YET when it gets to AR, there may be a deracho event! Heidi be watching!
I think Reed may clear this conflict tomorrow. It's easy to determinate where this user stayed during his posts (by his ip address). Just be friendly to each other.
Hey Hey! Stop!
I am the 15 year old Zack from Oklahoma City not Moore. I live in OKC Ben. That explains why Donny though I was chasing earlier today....hmmm. I may have to do something to verify which Zack is which.
Sorry other Zack...They didn't know.
Caleb, I think it will just be a rain event up here where I am! ;)
Hey folks! I just got on!! Looking good on the radar!! Hope everything goes good!! I'll try to catch up on what I missed here!!
Brady, you didn't miss out on much besides a drama.
Another guy named "zack" was out chasing today and everyone though it was me lieng.
AAAAAAAAAAA I WAS WEONG AGAIN!!!! evean Dr. Greg forbes's severe weather map says just genrel T'storms A few storms may get to you Heidi.
Some severe weather may get to me tomarrow right now im in a See-text a slight risk may be on me tomarrow afternoon. oh AAAAAAA my teacher may get a Meteorologists at my school we watched a weather video in class they used alot of grate bend and cordell footage. they used topeka fotage also. I watched Twister today on TV, when they were inside the tornado what was the rope thing?
The temp is begining to drop here in the OKC metro area.... I am concerned for freezing rain soon!
Hey Caleb!
All the convected areas are to the south of me now, I'm not going to spend the whole night chasing them. So anyway, I'm headed back home for tonight, to catch Louisianas round of severe weather. I may be out again next Thursday
Hey Zack! Did you take any pictures?
Speeking of Twister here is my fav part
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaUQWS8J7T8&feature=related
hey y'all. I am approx 30 miles se of Houston, in Pearland. I see a lot of ugly on the radar, and I have 4 kids in my house. The only Warning I've seen is in East Texas. Do you think we're cool down here
Is there 2 zacks here?
Abby, I would definitely stay alert to the weather situation down there for a while. You're not in the clear yet. Make sure you have your local TV station on or weather radio ready. You could also monitor the National Weather Service page. Here's the Houston area site:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/
And of course, since you have kids, you'll want to make sure you have a plan ahead of time if you need to seek shelter.
:)
Yeah it's a bust Dr.greg frobes says if the temps were 4 digres warmer there were have been tornadoes all over the place... don't worry guys we have a whole year!
Yep, I just heard that, we can still get some bad winds and rain. I wish it was 4 degrees warmer, he said it would be a serious problem if it was 70
My El Campo horse! It did not come in!
Yeah gotta go Reed keep your hopes up maby you'll get some thing!
Yeah Caleb, there are two Zacks on here. I didn't even chase today...in fact I am too young. I didn't get any pics Caleb, you got the wrong Zack;)
I am still waiting for the so called snow they are predicting here..ugh. This better not happen agian!!! :-|
All the mumbo/jumbo is almost too much........It's B-LL
SH-T. Keep tracking and all will come together for both of you. BELIEVE IN YOURSELVES. I do!
KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN.
LUV YA, JAC/BCAC
We are just now getting it in Pearland. We lost power for a while, scary, but the worst seems to have past.
I went on my first mini-chase today!!!
My friend and I were bored so we drove to the other side of D-FW and saw some pretty cool lightning.
At one point a group of chasers drove by us. We thought about following, but my friend didn't really want to go 90 mph in the rain to keep up lol
OUT OF CONTROL!!!
It seemed that the storms could not quite become entirely surface based today...Nearly all storms seemed very disorganized, with fuzzy reflectivity presentations, which are often indicative of weak, struggling updrafts. I don't know if I can handle chasing in the Houston area again!! The Ozarks are more chaser friendly!
Congrats on your first chase Connor...hopefully there will be many more..
Brandon...were you guys in a white SUV parked on the side of the frontage road? You should have stopped by!
Congrats Connor! Welcome to storm chasing. haha. So, I take it trying to chase in a suburban area like Houston is difficult at best, huh Reed? ;)
Nearing the Twin Cities, I noticed that traffic was getting just too crazy to chase safely. I can only imagine how bad Houston would be!! What's worse Reed? A jungle like Wisconsin or an urban jungle?? I personally hate being in traffic!
Reed I agree everything was a mess on radar..
We stayed put in Huntsville then all of the sudden I saw a the storm that was NE of there kept a close eye on it and then it went tornado warned without a severe thunderstorm warning first.. so we hauled b ut to catch up with it and headed towards Trinity saw a very disorganized base to our NW but no tornado, Hard to keep up with them in the terrain down there plus not to mention the storm motions. We were in alot of bottom land and lost radar for a bit. Went down the road a bit more and found some damaged trees and a couple of downed power lines, one very large tree was snapped in half.
I was able to check the storm velocities of the storm soon after it was warned and had a weak couplet. Very possible it could have been a week touchdown, we may have been looking at it and not even known it with all the small clusters of rain everywhere.. really dissapointed in this chase.. I do feel good about the target area we picked. If things would have developed better today and were better organized and just alittle bit slower storm motions we would of nailed one.. but it's still February.. nice to get the equipment out and hear some thunder.
Hah Reed, did you enjoy the Mirkwood Forest area beside Houston!? How did the sea look today? The steam and the forest are both pretty bad for chasing there.
Uhhhh that came across as a little rude, sorry guys ... I was just recalling the mess west of Lake Jackson.
That sea area is PERFECT if it's not misty, what out by Victoria and all, especially a little north to La Grange.
Just got back home Reed. We declared victory early and went west to I-35 while you went east towards houston. Was not the greatest of chases, but I actually had a good time driving all over creation. Like Chaserburns said, it was nice to get out the equipment and further break in some of my new stuff.
And I don't have a white SUV. I still drive a maroon colored honda civic. We had just passed I-10 in schulenburg (or whatever that town's name is) when you turned on your tracker. We went past the Best Western and I'm pretty sure it was you and others just chilling out. I saw Dave's red car there also.
Anyway, I'm exhausted and heading to bed. Already looking at the models for next week. Could be good ;)
I am glad that circumstances preventing me going yesterday but am bummed that you guys didnt have an opportunity to get good video. anyway what does everyone think of next saturday?
well my county has a flood warning, i'm the county just west of chicago, on my street there is rather large creek, and we are the lowest lying area in our county so i will definatly get some flooding here.