News DetailTexas tornado outbreak possible on Saturday!
Posted At: February 15, 2008 @ 12:40 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
As a potent shortwave trough moves through the Southern Rocky Mountain Region on Saturday, deep tropical moisture will surge northward into central Texas with 50-60 knot low level jet. A mid-level dry slot will rotate around the base of the trough at around peak heating, allowing for the warm sector to destabilize to unseasonable levels. Given the very large unstable and uncapped warm sector across Central and South Texas on Saturday, and incredible low-level shear, the potential exists for a significant tornado outbreak this weekend. Check out the WRF forecasts for CAPE and 850 mb for Saturday evening below:
Based on this evening's model runs, which are consistent with previous runs, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to go with a moderator risk for Central and South Texas in their Day 2 outlook for Saturday. We will definitely be chasing this event, as I'm sure many others will be as well, so stay tuned for updates!
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Man, I absolutely hate any moderate or high risks around here. I'm gonna be paranoid as hell that whole day. I just got a new camera so I guess if I see anything (which I hope i dont :)), ill send it over.
This one will be a lot easier to chase because of terrain than last one...i am pumped where are you guys thinking reed? i'm thinkin of maybe heading to waco/austin in the middle of night friday in case the system stalls a little bit.
Hey guys good luck with the chase. I found the site just after the Feb 5th outbreak and have been waiting for a new chase to start so I can follow it online - such excitement. I can't wait to see how it goes, I think I have become addicted to tornados! Gotta visit the US oneday and witness one 1st hand.
Have a good one guys!
Good Luck guys! Bring us back a good one!
I am trying to fix my work schedule to where I can head down there tonight and start watching where this is going to break. I think I might have to call in sick to work tonight. LOL.
Reed and Co., if I don't run across ya, have a blast.
Great.....I am always a little concerned when there is severe weather in my area. However....I have never been as concerned as I am now after hearing the forecast and then logging in to this site and seeing that Reed and Co. are headed to my area.......I am now "Freaked Out"! I will definately be glued to this site for updates. Everybody be safe chasing and hiding from the storms.
Best of luck to you guys. As much as I dont want to drive a long distance, I probably won't be able to resist. As of right now, I will probably target somewhere southeast of Waco, maybe somewhere around College Station.
Good target Brandon...No reason to be freaked out right now Jason...just stay tuned to local media and always be aware of the situation...even overnight, but the threat should shift east rapidly as the evening progresses.
Thanks Reed! More in preperation and readiness mode than freaked out. However with the recent weather systems in the US i guess it is good to be a little worried. That way I pay more attention to it and can be ready if and when something happens. I live in Kyle, Tx about 20 minutes south of Austin. I worry more because I watched my house being built and it would stand no chance along with the other 500+ homes in my neighborhood against a EF-1 or EF-2. I live one street over from the golf course so even in straightline winds 60mph you can feel the house moving around.
Ahhhhhh! I am freaked out! My wife is about ready to go into labor and there is going to be a high risk of tornados! How likely is it that Austin will get any? I wish I had high tech radar equipment.......you got any hand me downs Reed?
have fun reed
I'm guessing not as high of a risk from Austin as others. Cold front's going to be over Austin already when the cap comes off. I just hope the sun isn't headed down when the biggest guns fire up.
Yea so my chasing buddy might not go tomorrow so if anyone needs someone to ride along/pay for a substantial amount of gas/navigate anything like that from the greater OKC area lemme know tonight because I probably will not go by myself as it would be too risky.
Finally decided thumbs down for this one as my first chase, the major reason being Craig pointing out to me to be friggin patient and wait for him to train me in-field so I don't put my life at unnecessary risk :)
Also, there's a blizzard that's going to cover the top third of my way home potentially, so this shall not be my virgin chase.
Giddings, Texas was my initial setup call. My brother, who lives in Austin, said that would be in an area of flat, good land, but as most of it is owned by ranchers, there's not too many crossroads.
Plus, once the system crosses the Brazos, you're going to be chasing storms over Mirkwood Forest, so Brandon I'd think a tad w/sw of College Station by about 50-100 miles would break open a wider range to chase down the rare and windy roads in that area.
Everything else in even the new MDT is forest. Do not go in there. You will not see the end to it, and there are trolls and spiders and goblins and Houston and other dangerous things lurking.
I've been following this site for a while now, which is pretty kick butt by the way. I am a big severe weather enthusiast but I am still learning about it. But does anyone think there is going to be anything tornado related coming our way tomorrow in the Dallas area? I know we were in a slight risk area...but any guesses/thoughts would be cool. Anyways though, keep up the great work on the site!
you from oklahoma darrin? yeah central texas is prime for chasing that's one of the reasons i dont want to miss it but eventually the forest will be dangerous. I just cant wait til we get ours in central OK and kansas in a few months. that is usually the easiest chasing i think. perfect terrain.
Kay...i'd keep an eye out in Dallas of course...according to spc your are kinda in the 30% area. might be too far northwest tho...but its definitely a good idea to follow your situation
oops my bad your west of the 30% risk area but that could all shift back west maybe
Yeah I usually keep up with the weather just because it's so crazy here, lord knows we've had warm and cold off and on for the past 2 weeks that and the wind has been awful. But I kind of did think it would be to NW for it, I never see any good tornado action. But it probably is for the best considering how highly populated it is around here.
I am originally from the metro...i lived in frisco most of my early teenager years before i moved w parents up here. i remember a few occassions where there were close calls with tornadoes. they had something on discover about a "supertornado" hitting dallas and how bad it would be if say an F4 or F5 rolled through there. It would definitely be a pain to chase a storm there in the metro. i would want no part of that.
Oh yeah I saw that supertornado special to. It was creepy just thinking about that. It really is a pain though, I live in Garland which is just about 20 to 30 minutes out of downtown Dallas, but anymore it's just a pain to get around, let alone in trying to get in on a chase. Traffic is just too crazy.
Best of luck to Reed & co. on this one.
BTW, love the new look of the site!
Simon E.
It has been pretty quiet on here! Is the chase still on? Just wondering if the latest models are looking better or worse for initiation. There is a huge marathon scheduled for tomorrow in Austin so if you do plan to chase you may need to book a room on the outskirts of the city. There will be numerous road closures close to downtown. I wiork in the downtown area and it is usually busy for these events! Just a heads up!
Hey Reed can you post the next SPC Annual Tornado Trends please
In the D/FW area you really have to be mindful of severe weather threats, direction of storms and how they'll affect your commutes at different times of the day. Trying to travel across the metroplex during one is a major nightmare, so the trick is to figure when they are coming and when you should leave, in accordance with usual traffic patterns. If you don't think you can make it, don't go till it passes. Or if you have to travel, just plan appropriately and build in a lot of delay time or figure out some alternate routes that aren't in flash flood areas.
so how far is college station from norman?
--EZ
I'm actually from Iowa ... if I were in OK I'd be down at my bro's house already, but alas, a six-inch sheet of ice has been confirmed for the northern part of the I-35 route here, completely and totally quashing my last hope of sneaking away to Austin while my trainer Craig is snoozin'. :)
As far as D/FW, I'm not even convinced of the new modrisk EAST of that area. Am I missing something though? It just doesn't look like there's enough CAPE to eat. My brother says the front will be too close to Austin by blow up time for anything more than a squall line there (he knows more about weather than I thought, since he was about to call ME to ask me if I knew and was coming) and since my big brother was right about the Sooners and the Patriots, he will be right about this.
Giddings! Giddings I say! College Station is going to be crammed with chasers and doesn't have any n/ne tracks except for one narrow band. Unless you can cast spells like Gandalf in those woods.
I'd look out for a very limited time frame over a very private area around Giddings, but the storms could crawl more north than northeast and a central location over that narrow east-west but nonetheless tall north-south plains strip could bring some glory in that case before the line swallows the cells.
Cool! Have fun guys! I'd love to be able to chase tomorrow, but I'm still not sure if I can. If I am able to, I will be sure to let you know. ;)
Lets not give CAPE too much credit!
We just had a 123 mile long tornado track on Feb 5 with less than 1000 cape at the time! The tornadoes in southwest MO in January had less than 500 J/kg to work with. A mesocyclone can create it's own "cape"!!!! al;dkjfal;skdj
Very true, Good luck tomorrow . I am passing this one up . My son turns 10 tomarrow!
Jason
Oklahoma
Hey, have fun chasing and everything, but I'll be honest and say I'm glad it looks like my town will sit this one out. I'm happily sitting towards the western end of the slight risk zone. Hopefully the moderate risk zone won't be extended a hundred miles or so to the west! Or I will start to be paranoid. :P
What's a moderator risk? Is that like when they delete your post on Stormtrack?
It looks like a large area of freezing rain and sleet is headed this way. Winter storm warning one county to our west, but I bet we'll be included in a few hours. We'll get pounded by ice tonight, and see a tornado tomorrow!
This could be very violent into DFW Tommorow, depending on the boundry and the warm front.
NWS Raised our temps from 48 to 60 tommorow, and I bet we may see the DFW F5.
I pray we dont, but I have a feeling, and a good source that says I will.
Reed, what do you think about the northern part of the system here in IL?
Lincoln NWS is calling for freezing rain upto 1/4 of a inch sat night, then freezing rain and rain sunday, changing to all snow...2-4 inches.
To me this doesnt add up...i dont see much rain happening, with a lot more ice and snow.
2nd opinion?
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx
I am in the area of the "i" in Pekin
I was browsing in the Tornado Videos store and watching the stock footage again(AND! cracking up)-what are satellite tornadoes again?
For us meteorological illiterates struggling to follow this thread could someone please define CAPE and DFW?
George, cape means convective available potential energy and DFW is a city(ies) - Dallas/Forth Worth, Texas.
George (& anyone else), here's a link to the National Weather Service's glossary of terms. It's a VERY useful thing to have in your favorites if you're into weather at all.
http://www.weather.gov/glossary/
And DFW is just the abbreviation for Dallas-Ft. Worth. :)
Argh, I have to work tomorrow, so I can't necessarily follow along on the computer, but for everyone going out chasing, good luck and be safe! Hopefully there won't be as many tornadoes hitting populated areas as the Feb. 5 outbreak, though with any storm of course there will be some that will hit where people live.
How does it look so far for some action near the northeast San Antonio side say around Schertz or even a bit NE?
David R everything I've seen has the area southeast of DFW getting the worst of it? What source says Dallas gets that bad?