News DetailSevere weather possible mid-week!
Posted At: November 1, 2008 @ 1:11 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: General
A strong trough of low pressure is forecast to amplify and move east across the Southern Rockies during the middle of next week, bringing a chance for severe weather on Nov 4-5 from the Great Plains eastward. The only limiting factor for a widespread tornado threat will be moisture, with less than 60F dewpoints forecast across a majority of the Central and Southern Plains. Still though, given the very cold air aloft there will still be at least marginal instability, especially over the Southern Plains. Shown below is the NAM forecast 300 mb flow for Wednesday afternoon...Check back for updates as this potential severe weather event unfolds! We'll be posting often as the model forecasts evolve.
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We here in Middle TN are watching this event closely too. I've got a question. Since the moisture looks like it will be small for this event, does that mean that the supercells that possibly will form, will be LP supercells? Or is there another meteorology science that deals with that?
Charles just because the moisture is lacking a bit does not mean they will be LP. However ALL supercells are given the chance to produce a tornado. November is also the second tornado season of the year. This does look interesting... Is anyone planning a chase?
Finally, this is our last shot here in the midwest, I hope the surface low and wrm fnt can lift a little further north and east than what models are suggesting so I can get in on the action here in the great lakes. Sure would appreciate a few supercells to make up for a less than extraordinary year in the midwest although there was parkersburg I did get to see that
I hope it pans out and if it doesn't we have Storm Chasers to get us through til the spring... I've been storm chasing for a few seasons now and am looking to take my laptop along with me this season. I'm trying to figure out a cheap but worthwhile way to get internet on the road. Suggestions? Recommendations??
Actually that image is for Tuesday afternoon. Go Wednesday though! Iowa or bust.
I know, we went from lake-effect snow (didn't stick though) in Green Bay last week to basically upper 50s even 60s at times. Then on Weds-Thursday they are talking about the front going through with low 40s for highs.
The thing is though, the Great Lakes is still somewhat colder then the rest of the US, basically going through Illinois a person could go from the low 50s to almost 70 today. Though we'll warm up some, I dunno if it'll be like the rest. I'm still hoping for a cool storm though, but I guess we'll have to see in Wis.
Thanks Caleb. But on the SKEW-T models, if you have low PW then your moisture will be low content 1" or less on the SKEW-T model and that will more then likely form LP supercells, which I know can cause tornadoes to form. So if our dewpoints are on the lower amount...the moisture content would too leading to more then likely LP supercells.
Right when I was about give up hope on this setup it starts looking its best. Hopefully it will continue to trend towards a decent warm sector event.
Justin, you might find the kind of answers you're looking for in the Storm Chasing section of the TVN forum; you can get there by clicking my name. 8)
I live in Manhattan, KS hope I can get in on it too! local news stations are also talking about it! might be one of those November outbreaks! after a long and boring summer....
The new models are starting to look very interesting for Wed-Thur! 60+ dewpoints are now forecast to be in place in the Southern Plains east of the dryline, with up to 2000 J/kg CAPE and 50 knots at 850. I'll be adding a post this evening after the 00z models are available
So is this storm headed for the upper great lakes..??its going to get near 70 monday in the Ironwood,upper michigan area.. and by friday a high of 35 is forecasted....its november gale time....
I have been predicting that november will have at least 1 tornado outbreak.A strong upper trough will crash into a return flow of moist/warm air.This time of year the shears always good.This could be a big time tornado outbreak.Maybe the 2nd or best of november?
I'm in Wisconsin as well! Though I don't expect to see any tornadoes, hopefully I can at least expect some cool lightning displays :)
Reed, from reading the Twister data.com forecasting models...it doesn't look like the TVN team will not have to travel far to get to the "hot zone". My thinking from that data is that from anywhere between Enid, OK; to Arkansas City, KS; would be good.
I think if temps, and moisture can make it...areas like SE SD, and NE Nebraska look good for Wednesday late afternoon to evening. SE winds will exist in this region because of the location of the developing low. Hmm...I think dynamics are better in this area compared to down South. Flow @ all levels looks mostly unidirectional in Kansas and Oklahoma. That screams non-tornadic, monster squall line to me...so if I had to say anything now, the best chance for tornadogenesis would probably occur in the Sioux Falls, SD region SW towards Madison, NE...again if the temps and dews can make it. We are in la-la model land.
I can not wait to see how this system plays out.
I actually think KS and OK look better than SD/NE. The cold front is screaming squall line to me as further south along the dryline we could see nice tornadic supercells from I80 south to possibly I40. SBCAPE on the 0z NAM is showing small pockets of 2000 j/kg + especially in SC KS/NC OK where the dryline is at its tightest. This could be big!!
Michael, I agree on the location, however the surface flow is a bit to strong and the system is somewhat unidirectional, but we are still several days out and the system has plenty of positives! I am clearing my schedule.
Well after the first two shows, and DirecTV showing the prologue of the show as "Tensions mount between Sean and Josh, as Reed chases a dangerous nighttime tornado", I figured this was a lost cause another show that was 50percent drama/junk, 40percent Reed and crew rocking out, and 10percent laziness and lack of motivation. It wasn't that at all.
Instead, it was as if the show had done a 180 degree turn. This time it was packed with action from beginning to end. Yes there was still drama, but it was constructive drama, between Josh and Sean, over Sean going to AR with Reed. And for the first time in three shows, the TIV stayed in one piece.
I remember the bust day, and the May 1st nighttime tornado, it was awesome video. I must say that it seemed like at 1 point they had awesome crystal clear video, then the next power flash it was fuzzy. Some sort of production issue i assume.
In Enterprise MS, that was awesome and i can definitely agree with stopping the chase to help others. Although I'm not sure of the point of asking "Do you need help?" When it was clear they did. I've stopped to help because of flooding, trees down blocking the roads, and even one storm where there were 2 bicyclist in the middle of the country. You have even had members of the town visit the site, which just shows there appreciation.
Overall the show was great much more action, much less drama. And the TIV stayed together. Could have went without Sean and his hugs, but oh well. I would have to say i particularly enjoyed the show tonight and hope it will continue to episode 4(which i believe is Stuttgart).
I will give this show a A minus, bringing the overall serious to a A minus as well.
IMO
I've also heard theres a few people who's videos were used that haven't been paid yet, nor was atleast one of them told if they were gonna use his video. I really hope discovery isn't that bad.
As long as we get severe storms in Iowa on Weds (squalline or not) I'll be happy! Seeing any storms in November is always a great treat!
Matt.. By model review and such sc to se KS would be my take on some possibles.. but agree that the system is definitely unidirectional.. Thinking here is that some supercells may gain strength... as moreso to be squall line storms. A bit early to call it for sure. The helicity and Cape/cin models seem iffy attm as to my readings.. but... "Stranger things have happened" ..
In being in the brunt of the front approach in central/northern Cali.. the storm did not arrive with the punch that I thought.. Swell was more wind swell and groundswell was minimal. Fetch size was minimized as to comparison to the models on Thursday.. Cheers
To Reed and the Other Members of the Tornado.net Chase Team.
I Loved your Footage of the Tornadoes you captured on Discovery Channel's Series "Storm Chasers"But at the same time wondered if you guys ever Caught any Footage around Eastern Missouri during any Tornado Season.I Live in St.Louis,Missouri and as you probly already know St.Louis has had History of Violent Tornadoes.I Was Wondering if you Ever came close to a Chase near St.Louis or not.
Also i was wondering if you teamed up with the TIV for any Chases other then the ones on Discovery?
also i was wondering if you guys are going to have any New Equipment to help you guys Chase Next Year or Sooner?
And i Hope you guys get Good Footage of the UpComing Storms this Week in the Plains
Good Luck.
John-
Glad you are enjoying Storm Chasers and thanks for checking out the site!
I can answer a few of your questions. First, just wanted to let you know that I am from St. Louis born and raised there. Second, as far as the stream one team goes we haven't yet chased in and around the St. Louis area, coming somewhat close into SW and South Central Missouri. Third, TVN is always expanding equipment as finances allow. Once again thanks for checking out the site!
Stream one is watching Wednesday very closely and will likely have to gather up the chase gear soon.
Great show tonight Reed and everyone, though I was going 0__0 at your going up on the roof as lightning flashed above. Great also that you helped the situation in MS. Can't wait to see next week's episode!
As for Wisconsin's chances, I think our local mets. are saying the cold front will go through Weds night into Thursday, with possible upgrade of the severe index on those days. At the least they are calling for rain with a slight chance of storms, but they want to wait til it's a few more days closer.
Until then, I guess we enjoy almost-70 tomorrow and temps in the 60s til Weds-Fri, then Fri night into Saturday brings more rain and snow even.
Thanks for answering my Comment Curtis.
A Few More Questions man sorry if i'm Disturbing you guys.
Do You Think St.Louis will Experience any Severe Weather in the Next few Days.Because i looked at the NWS Site and it shows alot of Colder air headed this Direction and i know it's been warm the past 2 to 3 days.I Was Saying to my Grandmother just Yesturday while i was Watching "Storm Chasers" Episodes 1 asnd 2 that i recorded on Discovery channel "With this Weather we're having i bet it'll Cause Tornadoes"And she replyed by saying"I Wouldn't Doubt it"
Also did you guys come Near St.Louis on july 19,2006?Because that was the day a Freak Strong Storm moved in from the North NorthEast from Illinois into our Area.The Storm moved pretty Rapidly.There was a Tornado Spotted in my Area in St.Louis County very close to where i live actually right on Telegraph Road right by the Jefferson Barracks Bridge.(Which i'm Sure you know where that is.)Anyways i attempted to drive to a friends house Thinking i'd beat the Storm to the city what i did not know at the time was that the Storm was Moving towards my Direction from the city!So i Drove Catiously (Sorry if my spelling is bad)And i seen a small Funnel form above Highway 55 headed south towards where i live.i Spotted tthe Funnel on 55 Off Loughborho
(Again Sorry for the Misspelling)Anyways the Entire St.Louis area experienced massive Power Outages and Trees down.I Thought for sure that this was a Historic Storm at least for me Anyway because i never experienced a Tornadic Like storm before.I was Born in St.Louis and Live in St.Louis.
Anyways i hope you guys keep yourselves safe when you chase in the next couple days and keep me updated if anything flares up near South St.Louis County
Thanks again for reading and replying to my Comment
-John
Reed... Now after that last episode and your closing comments... " I have a new respect for you and the TVN team"... Now that my friends? is whats its all about... ALWAYS, keep the humanitarian mode first.
Whats up with Wurman? Its storm chasing... If Sean has the instinct to run... Whats with the sensitivity scene... Again.. to much equipment.. just overkill..
In being part of the Greensburg fiasco... May 07 to 08.. I can relate huge to the footage shown.. It hits a strong emotion with me.. In being there for the 1 year anniversary... The teamwork there has come a long way... and there is a long way to go.
At the end of the day.. it is "how we can be a part of solutions" to minimize the destruction and warning systems for these natural monsters.. That gets my adrenaline rockin mates..
Hello Reed and Crew,
Great episode on SC tonight... Add my thanks for pitching in and helping out on that one. I'm a Red Cross Disaster volunteer and I've seen what a difference it makes when people switch gears, drop what they're doing, and just ask, "What can I do?"
I've been the first civilian "official" disaster relief into town 2 hours after a bad F3, and when I got there at midnight the cops were already organizing hundreds of volunteers. By daybreak we had a literal army of people doing what you did. Some came into town after seeing a convoy of ambulances on the highway... They just figured something big was up, and somebody somewhere must need help.
Showing that footage tonight will cause a lot of people to be more willing to follow suit. You did a lot of us "pros" a favor. You pretty much rock...
I hope everyone out there gets some good storm action this week... I'm stuck in Minnesota and we're not going to get bupkis here... ~Ed~
Hey I also am born and raised around the STL Metro area. I grew up in Fenton and now live out in Wentzville. From growing up in the area and being a severe weather entusiast I can say not many pro chasers enter our area. We do get some nasty storms, however they are usually very fast moving and short lived. Way better hotspots to hang around in the spring then East Central MO IMO.
What's the chance this system can hold together and make it to Kentucky? :)
I'm still liking Southern South Dakota/Northern Nebraska for Wednesday...for tornadoes. Backing of the winds at 850mb, and SW winds at 500mb and 250mb equates to a decent veering profile with height. Again, temps have to make it up there and the moisture has a long way to go to be sufficient enough to lower the bases. I still have faith. I think there'll be big storms down in Dorothy land, but you'll need a Ferrari to keep up with that squall line. I know there are better thermodynamics south, but dynamics are huge this time of year, and they exist further North. When you look at the flow being the same at all levels, that virtually eliminates any tornado chances. If you had explosive updrafts associated with nuclear capes, then you might have a brief tornado. This severe outbreak has huge cooling coming in at all levels, so the forcing is going to be too great and storms are going to explode everywhere. Tornadoes North, Damaging Winds/Bow Echoes/Pissing Rain South! You can have tornadoes when it's 60 out...dewpoints don't have to be that high either to lower the bases. 60/55 with 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPES, Now we're talking...it can happen!!! Dews are already in the mid 50's in Kansas...and the return flow is going to persist until Wednesday...it'll happen! My initial target right now would be South and West of Sioux Falls, SD.
That funnel was DIRECTLY over my house. I live by 55 and Loughborho. Unfortunately I didnt go outside to see it but as far as I knew, at least 2 funnels and heavily rotating storms were within 5 miles of me.
Im sort of going paranoid of the outlook SPC has put up for Wed/Thurs. the 30% for both days over mid-missouri is a little disheartening for me as i hate tornadoes (yet i want to chase them). Hopefully it tracks farther north within the next day and misses Columbia!
Whoa whoa whoa Alex, today, just now?
No, it was a response to the comment made earlier by John Owens about the strong storms that moved through St. Louis earlier this Summer.
This setup is looking very interesting for Oklahoma and Kansas. I think anywhere from central/eastern Oklahoma north into parts of SE KS may have an oppertunity to see supercells. I am holding hope, as this is obviously the last opertunity to get some severe weather for the year.
Wednesday might not be the last day, if one buys into the GFS for the 10th. Wish we had those kind of dews for Wednesday.
hey reed im trying to get into stormchasing so if theres any advice that you could give me it would be a big help. i am a big fan of yours. you have really been a inspiration to me.
what is cenral oklahoma looking like for chasing on wednesday?
i know this is a dumb question but i thought i would ask. if u guys ever need another person on your team just let me know. im really dedicated to stormchasing and i would like to see my first tornado with you guys. in my town we would call you guys go getters lol. everytime a storm come to indianapolis which is were i live. i get a adrenaline rush. 317-728-9327 is my cell. call or text. in other words im basically asking if i could join the team. stormchasing is something ive been wanting to do since i was 6 years old. so if you could just let me know. if not its fine i just thought i would ask lol. thanks cant wait to watch the next episode.
Hello Justin! My brain is 30 years rusty from a few meteorology classes and a couple chasing seasons (local) back in the '70s... Thanks for your post above, it's helping clear some of the cobwebs...
I still need lots of help, though... Would you please give us an update on Tuesday about your thoughts on Wednesday around Sioux Falls? That has me excited since it is within reasonable driving range of Minneapolis, and the temp trend is looking good for Wednesday. Thank you!!!
Are there any other Minneapolis chasers out there? I have a mini-van with 550+ mile range, maybe we can hook up if the conditions stay favorable... Email me!
~Ed~
RNcalledEd@comcast.net
Best possible chance will be the Southern points. Labs indicate the best instability / shear will be a North to South line across Northern to Southern Oklahoma. Cross-sections 850-500mb respected do not sure much turning with height. So a major squall line potential with embedded supercells is the best bet.
I-35 and I-44 would be the target zone. A large area of Central to Northeastern Oklahoma, North to South across the state.
Yes KM... Guess i called it out on this post too huh? I'm tellin ya.. This kids got instinct... Well... most of the time... Time to chill out.. later mater...
Love watching you guys (and gals) on Storm Chasers ... I think you're all whacko, but I love the show. Great watching twisters on TV, but I pray to God I never see one in real life! You're doing a great job ... keep up the good work!!