News DetailIt's happening!!
Posted At: October 3, 2008 @ 9:30 AM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Tornadoes
But based on the morning WRF/GFS runs, moisture is going to be a serious problem and will likely result in waisted dynamics, as a massive storm system is forecast to amplify over the Western U.S. this weekend. This storm system will induce a strong diurnal low-level jet by Sunday across much of the Plains, but it looks like the best upper-level flow will exist over the Southern Plains across western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle (see below). However, as strong as this LLJ is, it will not be able to transport deep tropical moisture into the Plains, given that the Gulf has been cleaned out by the last few cold fronts.
While most of the deep moisture remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the morning WRF and GFS are showing pockets of 55-60F dewpoints across parts of the High Plains -- especially over the eastern Texas Panhandle. While I am skeptical that dewpoints will reach these values, if they can, there will be an isolated tornado threat, especially toward evening. Even with this moisture, CAPE values are forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg, but CIN is also non-existent by 00z Monday. It will be interesting to see how the moisture scenario evolves in the models over the next few days! Check back for updates, we'll definitely be chasing this event if there is a non-zero tornado chance...
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Looks like there may be a missing piece to the puzzle. Not ruling it out yet as the oceanic side shows a good northerly wind flow out of the GofM. If thing look favorable as continued monitoring of this evolves... A trip to the plains will be on tap for Sunday eve..
Reed as always... Thanks for your posted data.. I was perusing the vids of TVN while trading and watching the surf contest in Spain " gotta love the www access Ya".. Your octive levels are "off the chain" mate...
Let hope we have a line up of nature for some good fall mesos next week.. Cheers.
About time.
Here is what i say sundays mostly a hail/wind threat spotty tornado day.I expect monday to be the day as the winds will be good in all levels 40 to 50kts flow and strong jet ovehead from southwest i expect 65 dews and stepp lapse rates aloft 3,000 cape is possible on monday tornado outbreak is likely stay tuned.
WOW! Is it great to be back posting on here. After a rather dull 3-4 weeks of weather here in TN, it looks like the weather pattern may be shifting more toward a stormy side. We will just have to wait and see. Can't wait for the Storm Chasers airings either.
No EF5s Alberto!!!??? I never thought I'd see the day!
they make me look like a spaz in those promos JC.
Those promos are pretty funny. Cant wait for the show.
Reed... But you are mate... Thats what I like about you... But you are a really educated one !!!
I am not talking about the promo... I was actually perusing the videos on the site... Thats the real Reed.... I appreciate the personality of your intensity. And I am sure others do also...
I have not seen any of the promo stuff and such, "yet"... but I hope they bring it in as an asset to what they are trying to accomplish. Because that my friend is what makes you successful at the level you are..
If we get some possible action out there soon, maybe sometime are paths will cross.. Cheers mate
BTW.. We have a hurricane off the pacific coast... and TD -15.. By the looks of the radar, soon to be named 15 will be a Cabo possible hurricane FYI.
Waves attm have been well overhead in so cal.. Got 5 hours in yesterday an an epic session in today. Cardiovascular madness. I'm spent... "in a good way" And YES... Kelly Slater wins his "9th" world title... He's an alien like Michael Jordon.. Some people are just freakely gifted..
wow... a tornado @ fall? anyway, in my location (philippines), we have a LPA "93W" and almost stationary... located near lat 9.5N lon 132.5E...about 810 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 770 km East of Surigao City...has sustained winds of 35 kph...this system, is developing fast... a possible big show!
CB.. Gettin a bit on the quiet side out there eh mate?
Yep... we have a "slight" possibility.. East Pacific side has waves "pumping.. Kind of pending getting a flight to Colo Sunday eve... Just am not sure if the moisture will make it into the plains. I heard that the humidity in Houston was like so Cal "very low" yesterday... That is not a good sign.
Its Back to the future time...Need to look into the time machine mates.. Doc.. "Reed" 1.5 million gigawatts.... Whats your take mate?
Reed are you guys chaseing? HA HA!!! no EF5s
WOW !!! Insane waves coming in.. Hope all lines up well for the northerly LLS for 10-6th to 8th.. If so WHAMO! First wave of the west system seems to be starting here on the west coast attm.
Got some pics of the surf with the front backdrop... Insane 200 yard rides, 10 foot wave hts. from the outer reefs... Hydro horizonal tubes supreme. Need a message this eve for sure.. I have a "honey do" for the misses tonite...
@ CB... What do you think on the w Pac season so far.. epic INSANE and ... maybe more? Word..
@ joel... are you still on the radar ??? somewhere... ???
Models tomorrow over the texas panhandle show 1,500 cape over weak cinh so storms are likely.Winds show strong 500 to 700mb winds over the region to create 50 to 60kts 06km shear and 30 to 40kts 850 flow for tornados/hail/wind
@JC what the... 1 TS, 1 TD, and 1 LPA... wow what a show @ w pacific... too bad, 2 of those disturbances, goes west... with 1 going north... and again, too much north = cold waters... not enough fuel for development... as for my location even it becomes quiet, there are still spaces for more surprises... and i'm waiting for that surprises...
When is your storm chaser show airing again?
Looks like a bunch of rain is heading for the prairies tomorrow, as well as the return of cold weather..
Has anyone noticed that the SPC's website is always showing YESTERDAY'S convective outlook?
And yeah, it is about time for some more tornadoes. Let's just hope they don't kill anyone.