News DetailCalifornia Blizzard update from Dean!
Posted At: January 5, 2008 @ 4:13 PM
Posted By: Reed Timmer
Related Categories: Snow
While the snow yesterday and before was due primarily to warm advection at low-levels ahead of the cold front and positive vorticity (spin) advection at upper levels ahead of the main vort max currently moving onshore in British Columbia, the snow today is due to almost entirely to cold advection at upper levels -- which is resulting in the development of intense convective cells. There are two primary mechanisms that contribute to the development of convective instability: warm advection at low-levels and cold advection at upper levels...For deep convection, the latter is vital! The RUC analysis below from around 2100 UTC shows that temperatures at 500 mb over northern California are colder than -30 deg C! This cold air aloft is generating major convective instability over CA, especially over the relatively warm Pacific Ocean -- and these convective elements drop extremely heavy snow as they move over the mountainous terrain. This process is very similar to the lake effect process over the Great Lakes, etc, but on a much larger spatial scale of course.
Below is a mesoscale discussion from the SPC from earlier this afternoon.
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#(@*)(#*()@ing projections for Monday moved east.
I wish we'd get that much snow just once. That's all it would take for me. See, this is what I had in mind on that one WRF run that almost caused me to lose consciousness.
Why was there no SPAM eating footage, Dean? I am disappointed. *sniff.
I want some Q-G Theory RT!
lol Heidi... sorry to disappoint. Gotta make it up 2 you somehow. Spam dinner at my place? ah hahahah!
Hey... there's an "on the fly" emergency snow update coming. Uploading the video right now. Had an INTENSE HEAVY SNOW BURST before leaving town. In the hotel lobby uploading right now. Snow has ended 4 now. Partial clearing with spectacular view of all the newly fallen snow outside. WOW!
I estimate about 20 inches storm total with 8-10 new inches since early this morning.
Wow great vid(s) Dean!
lol I wish we got that kinda snow here in Oklahoma! We all know that would NEVER happen. We're lucky if we even get an inch of snow here:(
the second part of the tornado espisode of despret housewifeves is on tommarow
just tell u that its not snow or tornaodoes but dante's peak is on amc its about a volcano wit pierce brosnan
someone pinch me- we have a current dewpoint of 57 and temp of 62- aahhhhhhhhhhh
Dean: I've had enough Spam dinners in my life, thanks ... *shudder* ... that almost triggers my gag-reflex. What's the worst, you ask? Try Spam baked in brown sugar! No - DON'T try it!
Now I'm sick.
I can't believe there haven't been more comments on this thread yet. NFL playoffs?
I was just looking at the models for Mon-Tues. This is some INSANE low-level wind. There's a spot on the 6Z GFS over White Co. Arkansas with 77 kts on the 850 winds! WRF has 70+ farther east. 80 kts in Central IL on that same run!
Could we be looking at a major derecho event?
Donny, its 57 here with 95% humidity. We're gettin there! Our Chief Met. said that Joplin, MO hit a record high 72 DEGREES today!
were getting there allright pal- could be a derecho- could be a tornado outbreak- i mean just imagine if these are just scattered supercells- and with all this wind energy- were talking violent tornados- then again it could be a squall line- one thing is for certain though- with all this wind energy- not only will we be talkin lake wind/ wind advisorys- were also talking fast moving storms to- maybe 60-65 mph
Okay, this is admittedly a totally random thing, but I just got very excited because I remembered that this is going to be EXTREME kite-flying weather! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm serious, by the way!
NFL? Colts pwn all ;P
er... What's a Derecho? And what is the potential for severe storms in TN? from what I've seen it's all going to be Mississippi/Alabama area again.
A derecho is long lasting, very devastating
windstorm associated with a band of rapidly moving
showers and thunderstorms.
There are three types of derechos:
Serial derecho - Multiple bow echoes embedded in a massive squall line typically around 250 miles (400 km) long. This type of derecho is usually associated with a very deep low. One example of the serial type is a derecho that occurred during the Great Blizzard of 1993 in Florida. Also because of embedded supercells, tornadoes can easily spin out of these types of derechos.
Progressive derecho - A small line of thunderstorms take the bow-shape and can travel for hundreds of miles. An example of this is a derecho is one that moved through Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ontario, Quebec and Maine on July 4 and July 5, 1999. This particular derecho is named the "Boundary Waters-Canadian Derecho".
Hybrid derecho - Has characteristics of a serial and progressive derecho. These types of derechos are associated with a deep low like serial derechos, but are relatively small in size like progressive derechos. An example is the one that moved through the central Northern Plains and the Southern Great Lakes on May 30/May 31, 1998.
Progressive derecho - A small line of thunderstorms take the bow-shape and can travel for hundreds of miles. An example of this is a derecho is one that moved through Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ontario, Quebec and Maine on July 4 and July 5, 1999. This particular derecho is named the "Boundary Waters-Canadian Derecho".
Hybrid derecho - Has characteristics of a serial and progressive derecho. These types of derechos are associated with a deep low like serial derechos, but are relatively small in size like progressive derechos. An example is the one that moved through the central Northern Plains and the Southern Great Lakes on May 30/May 31, 1998.
sorry make that 5 types of derechos lol finger sipplered with that lol
ahh, that makes sense, I think I've seen a few of them without knowing what they were too, thanks for the info :)
your welcome jake
reed is it possible to delete 4 of those your welcomes my computer kinda accidently froze up lol
I think there is a hair on the record.
At least it wasn't a long post, like the derecho definition. :D
I think Reed is probably really busy charting out his course for his next Ozark chase - this time making it an EXTREME night-time chase on Monday. Yeah, that's what it will be! I think he needs to get himself to Clinton, AR (it's a real place, and NOT named after THAT Clinton...) and travel north on HWY 9 through Van Buren, Stone, Izard and Fulton Counties. That's my recommendation. I bet there are a TON of tornados in this area ever year that go unreported because, well, bears are not allowed to report to the NWS Little Rock, for some reason which I will never understand. ... He does NOT want to eat a burrito before making this trip, however. I've got it all figured out. mmm hmmm. :D
thats some crap heidi- i mean van buren, stone, izard and fulton counties are still part of the nws in little rock- i think it's time i make a few phone calls to some people i know- and if any of these tornados are responsible for killing and dont get warned- its on the nws's head- i mean it maybe a jurisdiction thing- but that shouldnt matter with tornados- i mean cops are in a way storm spotters- ya know there supposed to report it along with skywarn spotters
Neat footage of the snow or should i say lumpy bits of frozen stuff jeez, the size of the flakes are more like pieces of paper ! That's just an insane amount of snow falling in such a short period. How do you guys over there ever plan for what type of weather you get, it's one extreme to most extreme the next month!
Watching the previous ice storm footage that Reed took at his home was sureal, everything is like being frozen in time I've never seen anything like it. I suspect that everything once thawed out would be like mush underfoot?
Mike
Darwin, Australia
Just heard..
EARTHQUAKE OFF THE SHORES OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND, IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA! :) If I remember correctly I THINK it was about a 3.2-4 magnitude Earthquake...They said if it were to happen inland on the Vancouver Island, or Victoria Island, it would have been major damage! Luckily it happened in the Ocean!
Mike, while the US does seem to get all the weather extremes, luckily most locations here only get a few of them.
For example, that kind of snow storm will USUALLY only be seen in the mountains, and the central/southern US USUALLY only has to deal with severe thunderstorms (although the Gulf Coast gets a lot of hurricanes).
I hope you understand what I'm trying to say. Sorry if its a little confusing... I didn't really know how to put it.
wow... just viewed my latest vid posted here. DOES NOT do its justice. I can assure you the snow as coming down gangbusters, but looks like light snow in th video lol. Damn pixels! pffff. And the best part isn't in there... I must have left it out on accident since I was rushing to upload before leaving town. Booooo! Ah well... u get the idea...I guess that'll do for now.
COOL vids! love the dark voises on the first one! Dean are you going to be chaseing tomarrow possable tornado outbrake!
For some reason I hadn't seen the top video until just now??? Anyway, I really love the ravens calling in it. Ravens are AWESOME. Caro had a big flock of them in her vid a few weeks ago. RAWK! :-D
Donny, I was just joking about that section of the Ozarks being such a desolate one ("bears can't report tornados"! ;). At SKYWARN training, John Robinson even admitted that there are probably a lot of tornados that go unreported (by the public) in the Ozark region, simply because there are not a lot of people there to see them (and I imagine that most people don't even realize that they should be reporting them to 911 or the NWS) ... I actually think that NWS Little Rock does a pretty terrific job with warnings. Memphis, I'm not as regularly impressed by, especially when things start to happen in NW TN (read: April 2, 2006) ...
Looks like this area is going to be the show tomorrow. I NEED A VIDEO CAMERA!!!!!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!! :D Check out the day-2 outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
My favorite part?:
"...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH ARE: 1) VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH
WILL LIFT NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND 2) JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH WILL SHIFT NEWD
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT"
I don't especially like the "MONDAY NIGHT" part, though.
Our chief at Jonesboro wants to watch the game tomorrow - I think he's going to have to cut it short & come to work! :-/
Anyone want to make a wager on the time/location of the first tornado watch of the year?
well heidi- i'll make a wager with you- non-profit though not cause im not sure- but i'm kinda short on money- i would say-northeast texas, oklahoma, western arkansas- i would say a pds watch- and between 2:30-3:30
LOL good luck heidi fet some pictures get inside a tornado and meet dorthy on the otherside of the rainbow tell her I said hellow LOL
GO BUCKS BEAT LS-WHO
Anyways here in Columbus the snow is already about gone as temps have risen to 54 so far today and should touch the mid 60's both Monday and Tuesday with thunderstorms. I'm taking tomorrow off to tailgate and watch my Bucks!! OH-IO
Ok Heidi I took a "wagger" and guessed
http://s212.photobucket.com/albums/cc208/NADOKID1/?action=view¤t=USA_blank.jpg
Okay, I've been inspired...
http://i177.photobucket.com/albums/w226/thefurmouse/1708watchboxprediction.jpg
I don't think the NWS will be so bold as to put out a PDS on the first active day of the year ... unless there is a wedge on the ground tomorrow afternoon near Mena.
I think tornado watch #1 will be issued at about 12:30 PM. #2 one will be issued shortly afterward. #3 will be at about 5:00, #4 about the same time & #5 will be at 9:00 PM lasting well into the early morning hours. I have now stepped out on the proverbial limb.
Heidi-you crack me up!!lmao=bears don't report tornadoes?
First time I ever heard of a derecho. Learn so many things today! first-bears=second derecho. I think my day is complete!!
Dang-57F with a dewpoint of 54-and they just issued a flood watch for my area-I live by a creek and get nervous when they do that!
Dang it!
well i know they wont be as bold either- but i would giving the strong wind fields- i hope i am wrong
Heidi I think it will be some were around 5:00 or 5:30 because that is when ground temp is highest
Ahh, it feels godo to be home... haha. Looks like I've missed a few blog posts.;) I saw the Cali. storm yesterday, it looks to be heading for my home turf, and it could get messy again.
I come home from a week on the east coast and what do I find? There's still freakin snow on the ground in my neighborhood! Arrgh!
welcome back aj
LOL AJ were ya been?
haha. I've been in South Carolina for the past week, visiting family and friends. I didn't get to chase any extreme weather, but I was there when Charleston SC set a record low temp of 19 degrees F at night! That's effing cold for a coastal town.
Hey AJ!! Nice to see you had a safe trip!! Did ya see the SPC 2day? it was almost 40 here today!! =( My fingers are still crossed!! hope this doesn't melt too much snow!!
AJ!!! If you'd been driving home tomorrow you'd have been going through some serious storm action!
Caleb - the models are projecting that there will be sufficient instability in the east Texas/southeast Oklahoma/western AR/northwest Louisiana region earlier in the day to make a tornado watch necessary in the early afternoon hours. But we'll see. ... (I think I might re-do my watch box forecast later, because I don't think I included enough of the eastern MO/western IL/KY areas.)
Hey guys wats new today????
Heavy Fog outside today visibility about 50-100 yards its really bad out here. Nothing compared to California snow storm.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA NOW I'ME MAD I LIVE IN NORTH CENTREL KY AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA oh and here is what i think
http://s212.photobucket.com/albums/cc208/NADOKID1/?action=view¤t=usa-conic-1225-1.gif
Hey guys! Yeah, I noticed the models for tomorrow AFTER I was already home. lol. Oh well. I guess we'll have to get Reed, Zack and whoever else to go after it ;)
By the way, I am impressed with the state of Arkansas. I like it. It has a nice feel to it, and the people are friendly. That, and they get some awesome storms, along with having good land for outdoorsmen.
I like Tuesdays chances better then tomorrow. I dont know its just my opinion feel free to0 disagree with me.
I'm just hoping that some will get as far north as me, I hate living on this border this time of year. We don't usually get snow, and we don't usually get storms, just rain, if that.
http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh213/ontariostormchaser_2008/Tomorrowstornadooutlook.jpg
Here is what i think for tomorrow.
The GFS is forecasting storng CAP all day and yet the WRF is some a little break in the CAO at 18Z so i dont know which one to beleive.
AJ ... You just thought the people were friendly because you're not an armadillo :P We do have some outstanding state parks. I need to visit more of them.
The next model run is going to make me push back the timing on my watch boxes, I think.
haha. Heidi, I would have explored some of your state parks if I wasn't trying to get someplace further east at the time. ;) I just find it difficult to imagine trying to chase a storm in Arkansas, what with all the trees and hills and such... I bet it would only be slightly different. haha
Tuesday does look a little bit better... but I'll be home tomorrow and back in school Tuesday, so I'll pay more attention to tomorrow's forecast. lol
Hey guys... I wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Looking at the latest model runs, looks like a strong CAP will come into play. This isn't impressing me much anymore.... Especially here in Oklahoma. But there is some strong winds and sufficient instability that widely scattered to scattered severe storms are possible in AR and especially the Mississippi River valley.
Hey Aj, welcome back lol:) You still have snow on the ground there!!! We are in the 70's here! AAAAAAA!! We broke a record high yesterday and today!
I'm sorry, but I have been scanning through recent blog posts, and notice that this guy, who is represented as WTF keeps saying that Reed is a n00b and that he needs to stay out of California and crap. Block him Reed!
Zack, I drove home today from spending the night in OK City. I got a taste of some warm temps in your neck of the woods. Now I"m back to cold... darn... haha.
Too bad the cap will be strong, I was debating whether I should get excited about it or not. Oh well. I guess Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama will be in the running for some action on Tuesday.
I think we all know who's behind that!! =( People will do anything for a lil attention these days.
How was the trip AJ?? haven't had anymore snow here, but hopefully soon!! I've put a few hundred miles on the sled. Trails have been great here until today!!
The trip was great, thanks! I snapped a lot of pictures, not a lot of which were awesome weather or clouds, but that wasn't what the trip was about really... I did get to play around with sea critters of various types, and explore the beaches at Charleston.
Matt your prolly right! the latest 00z just keep getting better and better! the CAPE value is over 1000 this is a spring-time set up! tomarrow's CAP i'm prodicting to brake and if i'me not mistakeing around 5:30 a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued 6:10 PM the first storm develps 6:14 PM the cell rapidly gets stronger 6:18
PM the cell becoms severe thunderstorm wared. 6:40 PM a tornado watch is issued 7:00 a supercell happens 7:10 a tornado happens it's small in size but still a strong one. 7:30 PM the tornado dissapates this trend continues until 11:00 PM at that time a long line of storms streching 40 miles long 20 miles wide causing a lot of wind damage
3:30 PM whole line dissapates.
Not trying to sound negative, but despite all the ingredients there, the littlest things happen that can screw things up. I personally think this will be a major wind event that tornado. However, isolated tornadoes may be a possibility if the cells can remain discrete. There will be a fast moving cold front with this storm, which could cuase the storms to form a line - which then would be a squall line or derecho. I'm no pro, but if you think about it, this is a very possible situation.
I'm with you Zack squall line
Caleb, I won't quote you on your timings if it doesn't work out ;). I agree Zack, there seems to be the proper ingredients for both events, but we'll have to see how things pan out early tomorrow to be sure we're not chasing a really big wind gust instead of a funnel. Derechos are pretty awesome if you've never experienced one before...
Yeah, derechos are very cool, they are most common in the summer months.
Again, no one knows for sure how this will result, but something in my mind as I analyze the GFS over and over screams squall line!!! I dunno. It seems to possible. Especially since the NAM shows the precip forming a line.
Ahhh guys, blizzard!! Bus going from Canora to Yorkton only drove 60 km /hr because we got inch of snow plus in no time. Then now almost to Regina and again, inch of snow!!
Cool Skgirl!! Yeah our winter pretty much ended just recently. More like spring right now, with temps in the 70's and believe it or not 80's too!! We broke record highs Saturday and today. AAAAA! Oh well, looks like winter returns sometime late next week with MAYBE some snow here. Right now we are trying to figure out what all will exactly happen tomorrow.
yeah the precip forecast dont show anything but minimal tomorrow so i dont knwo...all's i know is that I am staying home and waiting til march(hopefully)and saving the gas money
haha. I hear you Ez. I'm staying at home base... read that as "home," until May, when school gets out and I have more flexebility with a job and chasing... it is my goal to do more chasing this year. Last year wasn't very good, but I started in 2006, so I have some work to do. haha
GO BUCKS OH-IO
Anyways in Columbus it is 60 at 1130 with a high tomorrow near 65 and some storms the record is 64 for C-BUS.
GO BUCKS
Yeah, me too. I'm waiting till March before I do anything.
Well guys, I'm off to bed, so I'll see you guys tomorrow.
NOOOOOOOOOO! Winter break is over! Back to boring school tomorrow:(
Hey guys. So ths blizzard was weird. It had that 1/2 hour stretch from Canora, then from Melville it went about an hour. Just out of Regina absolutely nothing. Highways icy enough though that the snow sweepers were out there already and highway was salted. Was one vehicle on the ditch, and a total whiteout in the areas where it was snowing. Even with windshield wipers on full blast
Sounds like fun SK... haha. You reminded me that my truck needs new wipers, they're old and need replaced... lol. On another note, I'll see if I can smuggle a laptop away from one of my teachers on Tuesday, so I can randomly check on the models for severe... it's still looking pretty decent. We shall see...
I'm out too, see you guys and gals later!